Tout Wars: A Review
March 26th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
I was in New York over the weekend for Tout Wars. Looking to redeem myself after my LABR experience, I thought I would change my approach with Tout. The plan? Draft a good team, something that somewhat eluded me in Arizona.
After wading slowly into the mix in LABR, I decided to be a bit more aggressive this time out (probably a good idea I think we would all agree). In this 15 team mixed league I was able to roster a solid group of bats, but I really love my power pitching. Before I get emails from all of you saying ‘but Ray, you always say don’t draft pitching early’ you have to realize two things. (1) Things are different at an auction. The amount of control that you have is exponentially greater so you can have a couple of “aces” an not necessarily miss out on bats. If you take an SP in the 2nd round in a snake-draft you miss out on a big time hitter. In an auction there are no rounds to worry about so you can add Roy Halladay and still get Prince Fielder if you want instead of just being able to get either/or in the second round of an snake draft. (2) If there is value present, I’m going to jump into the mix. Check out the names that I was able to roster for my staff:
Cliff Lee ($26), Felix Hernandez ($23), John Danks ($3), Chad Billingsley ($3), Ricky Nolasco ($3), Sergio Santos ($13), Kenley Jansen ($6), Sergio Romo ($4) and Tyler Clippard ($3)
I know, I know, you’re saying to yourself ‘Ray, when is the love affair with Billingsley and Nolasco going to end?’ My response is that I’m a glutton for punishment. Billingsley should offer a moderate bounce back from last season, an I always, an I mean every season, point out how Nolasco has great skills even if he’s rarely able to put things together. You also read about Danks in his Player Profile, right? He’s a nice rebound candidate since he actually pitched better last year than he did in 2010. As for the bullpen arms, I have to say I’m pretty darn excited about the group. Jansen is one of the best arms in the game, and Santos was great as a first year closer last year. In San Francisco Brian Wilson doesn’t appear to be 100 percent, while Drew Storen is dealing with some health issues of his own in Washington. It wouldn’t take a whole hell of a lot for Clippard and Romo to pick up at least a few saves. For good measure, I also added James McDonald in the reserve rounds, along with David Robertson. McDonald has a great arm and showed some nice signs of growth last year with the Pirates. Robertson continues to impress after injuring his foot, and he’ll slide in well with my stable of power arms out of the pen.
On offense, a moderate approach was key. Here’s what I ended up with:
C: Kurt Suzuki ($7), John Buck (4)
1B: Carlos Lee (8)
2B: Chase Utley (6)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (23)
SS: Derek Jeter (13)
MI/CI: Dustin Ackley (8) Gaby Sanchez (12)
OF: B.J. Upton (27) Nelson Cruz (20), Carl Crawford (18), Alex Rios (13), Denard Span (2)
UT: Danny Espinosa (8)
Watch me lock down Dustin Ackley in the bidding.
Remember, this is a 15 team league, so guys like Lee and Sanchez at first and corner infield, while not even remotely exciting, provide plenty of counting stat production. You’ll notice Utley as my “starter” at second, and you’re likely thinking – huh? But for $6, and he was tossed out there relatively early in the draft, I felt like it was a risk worth taking. I felt even better about it when I was able to roster Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa for a combined $16 to handle second and middle infield if Utley is a waste. I mean, Jemile Weeks went for $16 by his lonesome. I like Weeks’ speed, but I’d certainly rather have Ackley and Espinosa for the same cost. Jeter is boring, but he was the last shortstop I trusted on the board other than Alexei Ramirez. The White Sox shortstop was brought up a couple of players after Jeter and he went for $17. Cruz and Crawford in the outfield are health risk, but for $38? There were probably leagues last year where Crawford went for that by his lonesome. I love B.J. Upton. Here’s why. I’m also a big fan of Alex Rios, see his Player Profile, and thought $13 was just right for his services (I have him at that cost in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide). Span may not excite you, but if he can stay healthy hitting atop the Twins order, then he could be a strong, cheap, option for my club. For support in the reserve round I added Aubrey Huff and Danny Valencia. Rather boring no doubt, but if they knock in 80 runs while not killing my average, I won’t mind too much.
I’d like to thank our gracious host, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, for putting on a great event this past weekend (here’s a picture of me in action). The studio looked amazing, right across the street from Radio City Music Hall, and Howard Stern’s studio was right next door (I still can’t believe they pay a guy $100 million a year to talk about nude ladies and sex. I’d do that for a hundredth of that. Heck, I might do it for free).
Gotta say, I wasn’t overly impressed by NYC. I hadn’t been there since I was 16 so I was looking forward to a big bash of late night shenanigans. While we did get into some trouble, the fact that we wandered around New York at 3 AM and couldn’t find a place to get something to eat – simply amazing. Isn’t there supposed to be a late night pizza place open all night on every corner?
Click here for a review of all the selections in the Mixed Tout Wars League.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Rios, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Chase Utley, Chd Billingsley, Danny Espinosa, Dustin Ackley, James McDonald, JOhn Danks, Nelson Cruz, Ricky Nolasco, Segio Romo, Sergio Santos, SiriusXM, Tout, Tout Wars, Tyler Clippard
By John on Mar 26, 2012
what did Adam Dunn go for?
By Jon on Mar 26, 2012
Hey Ray – which side of these 2 deals do you prefer in 10-team with OPS & AVG, QS & W:
Holliday for Cliff Lee
Holliday/Luebke for Lee/Gaby
thanks and good luck in tout!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Jon – In a 10 team lg, I’d probably lean toward the hitter meaning I’d want Holliday. Answer to your question depends your team. Do you need offense or pitching more?
By Jon on Mar 26, 2012
My OFs: CarGo, Holliday, Hamilton, Victorino, Pagan, Boesch (Prado also eligible)
My SPs: Josh Johnson, Wainwright, Beachy, Scherzer, Luebke, Danks
Would you go as low as CJ Wilson for holliday? guy might not do Lee.
By Matt K on Mar 26, 2012
Ray, I just had my 14 team mixed draft with all of us keeping 2 players that were drafted after round 7 last year I kept m. moore, and h. kendrick. Please let me know how I did as far as my team, here’s how I got:
Alex Avila Pablo Sandoval Danny Espinosa Adrian Beltre
Jhonny Peralta Ian Desmond Carlos Gonzalez Josh Hamilton
Torii Hunter Colby Rasmus Justin Smoak Juan Pierre
Howie Kendrick Matt Garza Josh Johnson Brandon Morrow Tim Hudson
Joel Hanrahan Brandon League Brandon McCarthy Sean Marshall Matt Moore
By Steve M on Mar 26, 2012
I have been looking at the Tout and LABR NL only drafts as part of preparation for an NL only auction league that I have been in for a while. I have been historically been awful in this league, but my friend runs it, so I have to keep coming back for more. I have a few conceptual questions regarding draft valuations relative to the expert league auctions. For example, in our league, everybody starts with $300, not the standard $260. Would that mean that I should inflate theoretical values by 14% (300/260)? If we have 8 teams instead of the more standard 12, should I inflate my target pricing for at least the top tier guys accordingly as well? We also have fewer starting positions than Tout and LABR. I am starting to think that my previous unwillingness to go full out stars and scrubs (along with paying the associated costs of the stars) is probably what is holding me back. Any suggestions would be appreciated. The only reason I am asking is that your very helpful draft guide didn’t really address this type of question.
By Jon on Mar 26, 2012
Trying to settle on a catcher. Who do you think will be the better bet for the 2012 season Mesoraco or Arencibia?
By Ricky on Mar 26, 2012
Ray,
I know you hate weekly stuff, but I need to set my first weeks lineup. All I want to know is who has the best chance of being healthy week 1 between BJ Upton, Delmon Young, and Josh Willingham. If Upton is going to be in the opening day lineup, I have to start him. Do you know anything about that? Also, any injury updates on the other 2?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Ricky – I think Upton should be fine for opening day, but if you need to make a decision based on health for Week 1 your best bets are Young and Willingham.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Jon – If I had to choose between Mesoraco an Arencebia, give me the TOR catcher. Huge power potential even if AVG is likely to stink.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Steve M – Eight teams is a joke cause it’s so thin. Studying Tout and LABR don’t do much good since those leagues use a diff $ amount than your $300 lg, but mostly because those leagues are 13 teams.
In theory, the deeper the league, the more you need elite talent since there are more teams vying for fewer elite players. Drop 5 teams out of the mix, and everyone can get elite players. You would also be willing to spend more to get that elite talent because with only 8 teams needing players the $3-5 type players near the end game are going to be way better than they would be if 125 more players were being drafted (as they would in a 13 team lg).
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Matt K – Really wish you would have put the players in order of position. Looks like you only start 1 C. Can’t tell about MI or CI. Also no idea how many Ps you start. 5×5 or points lg? Maybe you could help there?
By Dog on Mar 27, 2012
Hi Ray, Just had my draft and I hope you would review it please:
C: Y Molina
1B:Fielder
2B:Kinsler
SS:Y Escobar
3B:ARod
OF:C Young, Rios, Heyward, Markakis, Fowler
Util/Bench: Dunn, C Davis
SP:CC Sab, Gallardo, Strasburg, Holland, Liriano
RP:Axford, H Bell, B Myers,J Hanrahan
Appreciate the comments. Thanks
BTW it is a 13 team mixed Roto style 5×5
We start only 3 Of’s and 1 util (anyone is elgible)
Also start 3P, 2SP, 2RP
By Pablo on Mar 27, 2012
Hi Ray – Just had my 12 team 5×5 (w OBP) draft. We play C/1B/2B/3B/SS/IF/OF/OF/OF/U and SP/SP/RP/P/P/P/P/P, plus 6 reserves (any position).
What do you think?
1. (11) Ryan Braun OF
2. (14) Adrián González 1B
3. (35) Justin Upton OF
4. (38) Ryan Zimmerman 3B
5. (59) Brandon Phillips 2B
6. (62) B.J. Upton OF
7. (83) Dee Gordon SS
8. (86) Matt Garza SP
9. (107) Gio González SP
10. (110) Brandon Morrow SP
11. (131) Josh Beckett SP
12. (134) Brett Gardner OF
13. (155) Adam Dunn 1B
14. (158) J.P. Arencibia C
15. (179) Sean Marshall RP
16. (182) Grant Balfour RP
17. (203) Johan Santana SP
18. (206) Chris Pérez RP
19. (227) Vinnie Pestano RP
20. (230) Danny Espinosa 2B
21. (251) Matt Thornton RP
22. (254) Matt Joyce OF
23. (275) Erik Bedard SP
24. (278) Marco Scutaro SS
By John on Mar 27, 2012
Hey Ray,
Need some middle infield depth… would you drop anyone of these for Zack Cozart? Brennan Boesch, Lorenzo Cain, Edwin Encarnacion, or Mat Gamel
By Craig D on Mar 27, 2012
Ray,
To answer your response on my trade question… in all Yahoo “Money” leagues this year trades can be protested by anyone in the league. The Yahoo staff then reviews the trade protest to decide on the veto.
Are you not a big fan of trading?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2012
Dog – In a league this shallow, your team should look strong. Escobar is passable at SS, while rest of your IF looks strong. OF is solid, though ALOT is dependent on Rios/Heyward bounce back, Folwer’s continued growth.
Top-3 SPs are great, last two so-so.
Great bullpen arms.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2012
Pablo – How in the world does Justin Upton last until 35th pick? That’s flipping laughable. His ADP is in the top-10 and I’ve yet to see him fall past 15 in any draft.
Good work getting four closers from the 15-21st rounds.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2012
Craig D – Trading makes leagues fun. However, what happens is that trades go down that are unfair. That unbalances the league for everyone. I don’t like that. I’d prefer it to be more straight up, but that’s just me I guess.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2012
John – Hype is too high on Cozart. He’s not likely to be any better than Marco Scutaro. I would much prefer the veteran.
By Pablo on Mar 27, 2012
sorry – forgot to mention top 3 were keepers.
By Ryan on Mar 27, 2012
Ray,
I have both Freedie Freeman and Gaby Sanchez. I dont want to carry both. Would you consider any of the following an upgrade for depth purposes: Fowler, C Pena, D Espinosa. Im going by your rankings and these are the best available.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2012
Ryan – If you don’t want to keep two first basemen, why would you add another in Pena? Espinosa can be a 20/20 guy if everything breaks right, an I have high hopes for Fowler, so either would be a nice add if you dropped one of your two.
By Clint on Mar 27, 2012
Ray,
Our 14 team fantasy league is making the jump to an auction league this year. We are allowed three keepers at last year’s rates and have a $260 budget with which to work. Having never done an auction budget before, I’m not really sure how to proceed.
My top options for keepers are as follows:
Crawford – $38
Votto – $34
Longoria – $38
Stanton – $15
Greinke – $14
Weaver – $14
Hosmer – $1
Kipnis – $1
Morse – $1
Just wanted to get your thoughts on my situation. Thanks in advance!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2012
Clint – I have an article in the Draft Guide talking about auction drafting.
My three keepers – Hosmer, Greinke, Stanton.
It stinks passing on Votto and Longoria. Still, your three keepers should cost you about $75, and you’re getting them for $30. You can easily use that extra $45 to buy either of those big studs.
By Pd on Mar 28, 2012
Your comment bout Howard was highly uneducated maybe a lil research like you would for ur fake baseball leagues before you make a stereotypical observation. If it wasn’t for Stern there would be no SiriusXM for you to do your little show. Btw congratulations on ur rant nobody really cares about someone else’s fake team. When you talk fantasy with most people they are not even really listening to what your saying bout ur team or who you drafted traded dropped or why… They just waiting for u to shut up or they interrupt so they can go on and on bout their shitty team. Guess that goes for more than just our fantasy teams. Good luck this year keep up all the good work!
By Pd on Mar 28, 2012
And I woulda kept morse for the $1, screw Stanton let some other douche overpay for him while u get basically same numbers for a buck! If its your first auction best advice I think would to be the last one with all the money. There will be lots of bargains to fill out your roster while everyone wishes they had saved and not paid $27 for bj Upton. When’s this damn Mariners game gonna start already.