SiriusXM Hosts League Draft
March 29th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Last night, live on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we had another hosts draft in which I got to pit my wits against some of the industry leaders in a 12 team, mixed league snake draft. Let’s see how I did. The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted in the fantasy baseball draft.
C: Kurt Suzuki (16), John Buck (26)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (4)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
MI/CI: Yunel Escobar (18), Billy Butler (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (1), Carl Crawford (5), Shane Victorino (6), Brett Gardner (8), Carlos Lee (20)
UT: Mark Reynolds (11)
SP: James Shields (9), Ricky Romero (10), Brandon Morrow (13), Max Scherzer (15)
RP: Sergio Santos (14), Kenley Jansen (17), Brett Myers (19), Matt Capps (21), Aroldis Chapman (23)
BENCH: Denard Span (22), Ricky Nolasco (24), Erik Bedard (25), Ian Stewart (27), Brian Roberts (28)
* I wanted to roster Nick Hundley or Chris Iannetta as my second catcher, but both were taken the round I was going to add them. I then thought I’d take Carlos Ruiz, but he too was taken so I just waited to add Buck. If you can fill bench spots before you have to fill your starting lineup, you might consider a similar strategy.
* I was certainly tempted to take Joey Votto with my first pick, but two things played into my choice of CarGo. (1) I like the five category skills of Gonzalez a wee bit better. (2) Yahoo, which is the service we held the draft on, pretty much qualifies everyone in the game as a first or third baseman, so I felt comfortable passing on the elite first baseman.
* Speaking of the corners, look at the lineup I rostered. Youkilis can play first or third, ditto with Reynolds, an even Butler qualifies at first in this set up too (so does Lee). People might look at Butler in the 7th round and think that’s too early to take him, but as a first base eligible player he’s of real interest. To compare, Eric Hosmer hit .293 with 19 homers and 78 RBI last year in 523 at-bats while Butler hit .291 with 19 homers and 95 RBI in 597 at-bats. Plus, Butler is a rock of consistency.
* Jeter is old, but I don’t doubt that he’ll hit at least .280 with 15 steals and 80 runs scored – at a minimum. Escobar in the 18th round was also a solid add at middle infielder. Speaking of middle infielders, why in the hell did I take Brian Roberts in the 28th round? Did my computer do on auto-draft? Did I drink too many Paradise Punch’s and think it was 2007? You know how I always preach about knowing your league rules? This is a perfect example. Roberts will start the year on the DL, so if he’s taking up a bench spot in a 12 team mixed league it’s pretty tough to justify his inclusion on your roster. However, this league has DL spots. I drafted Roberts, immediately placed him on the DL after the draft (I was able to add Chad Billingsley). In essence, I’ll get a player I was targeting with my last pick in the draft anyway, an I’ll have Roberts for free cause he isn’t impacting my active roster. If/when Roberts plays, he’ll be effective. It’s just a matter of when that will occur.
* I waited on pitching, but so did everyone else to a certain degree. That resulted in a large number of solid starting pitchers being available late (Nolasco, Bedard types). However, people went hot and heavy on relievers, so I just waited that out. In the end, I’ve got three closers – Santos, Myers, Capps – though I really only like the first one. Still, saves are saves, so I’ll pay the price in the ratio cats to get them from Capps and Myers. I also added Chapman on the off chance that the Reds decide to give him some 9th inning work which is certainly possible (especially after Dusty Baker said the other day that he isn’t locked into using Sean Marshall exclusively in the 9th). As for my starters, see what I say about waiting on arms? Shields, Romero, Morrow and Scherzer all have the talent to win 15 games with at least 175 Ks. I wanted to take Morrow in the 11th but showed patience and got him two rounds later. I also wanted Scherzer in the 13th but was able to get him two round later as well.
So there is the squad. What do you think? Oh, by the way, for the full draft results click on the link to SiriusXM Experts Draft.
To sign up for fantasy baseball, give Fleaflicker a look.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Aroldis Chapman, Billy Butler, Brandon Morrow, Brett Myers, Brian Roberts, Carlos Gonzalez, Chad Billingsley, Derek Jeter, James Shields, John Buck, Kevin Youkilis, Matt Capps, Max Scherzer, Ricky Romero, Sergio Santos, Sirius XM, Yunel Escobar
By Ricky on Mar 29, 2012
I think you reached on Youkilis. You always over-worry about injury prone guys, then you took Youkilis that early. What was the thinking there? You think he’s going to give .300, 20, 90 this year? Also, love the Aroldis Chapman pick. You say you picked him as a reliever, but I think Dusty will announce today that he is a starter. Chapman as a starter would have HUGE upside, even this year.
Just thought I’d throw in my 2 cents. Ray, love reading your stuff as always.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 29, 2012
Ricky – Youkilis could easily go .300-20-90 this year. In this lg, he qualifies at first and third, that also adds value. He’s a career .289 hitter with .391 OBP, and his pace last year would have led to 21 homers and 97 RBI in 525 at-bats.
Worried about Chapman’s health, and loss of velocity this year, but at the point he was taken it wasn’t a bad pick at all.
By wesley on Mar 29, 2012
I purchased your guide and i got bj. upton in 4 leagues and im drafting my last 1 sat. morning. Are you moving b.j upton down your boards at all
Thanks ray
By Ray Flowers on Mar 29, 2012
Wesley – I’m really not going to move him down, Upton that is, but you should not be paying top dollar at this point meaning other guys on his tier are just as attractive now. Maybe down 2-3 spots type of thing?
By Adam J. on Mar 29, 2012
I literally listen to the XM show every night, Ray, and I appreciate the insight. The team looks good, I just wonder if you have enough batting average to offset Reynolds and Buck?
By Nick on Mar 29, 2012
Nice job with your draft.
Posey and Darvish for Ortiz and Motte.
Fair deal?
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 29, 2012
Adam J – Not enough AVG if Reynolds hit .202. If he hits .242, I’ll be OK. Youkilis career .289, Pedroia over .300, Zimmerman should hit at least .280, Jeter/Escobar could hit .300. Butler should hit .300. Ditto Gonzalez. Crawford/Victorino should at least be in .280s. Gardner/Lee, .260 ish. Should be able to cover the average.
Thanks for listening every day.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 29, 2012
Nick – Ortiz only DH eligible. Motte should be closer with a lot of success, but we know how quickly things can go badly there.
Posey a risk to count on for 130 games, Darvish totally unproven though ace like stuff.
I’d take a shot on Posey/Darvish.
By Chrissy on Mar 30, 2012
Ray- Thank you for your very helpful Draft Guide! I had my first Auction Draft and it was nerve racking at first and I was very happy to have you there to guide me. I would like to share my roster with you for your ensight. This a 12-team rotissere keeper league here is what I ended up with:
M.Montero D.Mesoraco
K.Morales
D.Pedroia
P.Sandoval
J.Peralta
D.Uggla
E.Encarnacion
R.Braun S.Victorino N.Markasis A Rios V.Wells
D.Ortiz
De Aza Trout Belt L.Duda (Includes 4 bench spots for hitters)
Pineda Billingsly Morrow C.Lewis B.Norris E.Bedard C.Luebke D.Fister J.Chacin
B.League S.Marshall N.Feliz T.Lilly (Includes 4 bench spots for pitchers)
A lot of Pitchers were kept and I also waiting on drafting them as you can see. Thanks for your input!
By Chrissy on Mar 30, 2012
Sorry for some of the typo’s grammar seems to be big on here lol
By Cliff Prince on Mar 30, 2012
gotta say I agree with Ricky re Youkilis. He hasn’t had 525 abs any of the past 3 years and is 33 years old. Could he bounce back, sure but I don’t like the odds especially with a 4th round pick. M Young could be had 2 rounds later and while he might not get you 20 hrs he will get you 180+ hits, .300 avg, 90 runs scored, 80 to 90 rbis and he does it every year. Love Butler in the 7th, he’ll be more productive than Youkilis.
By Tom Z. on Mar 30, 2012
Ray,
I’m in a 10 team AL only keeper auction league. Should I try stars and scrubs this year? With Houston being added to the AL next year, there will be a bigger player pool which, if I hit on my scrubs this year, should free up money at next years auction. Thanks.
By Mitch on Mar 30, 2012
Ray,
I actually listened to the Live draft on Sirius XM for the first few rounds.
The only problem that I have with your draft is that you were so concerned with Cargo being a 5 tool player ( which means nothing in fantasy) and then you passed on Hanley Ramirez and took Pedroia in the second round.
It makes no sense to me. Ramirez will best Pedroia in seemingly every category.
Otherwise you had a fairly good draft.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Mitch – A five tool players means nothing in fantasy? I’m afraid I have no idea what you are talking about. Of COURSE it matters. The 25 steals that CarGo is going to get should put him past a guy like Votto who figures to have similar totals in avg-hr-rbi-runs. Afraid you’re in error on that point.
HanRam is dealing with a position change. He doesn’t appear sold on the move to third. He had shoulder surgery. He has a ground ball rate of over 50 percent the past two years. His last healthy season he went .300-21-76-92-32. The last THREE YEARS Pedroia has averaged .299-16-68-90-18. That’s pretty darn close AND he isn’t coming off two down years and shoulder surgery.
I think it’s a lost closer than you think.
By Mitch on Mar 30, 2012
Ray,
Five tools including fielding and throwing. What does that have to do with Fantasy?
CarGo had a fair season last year, he was nowhere near as good as advertised. While he does play at Coors field, that helps. But other than Tulo, he has very little surrounding him.
Hanley has Jose Reyes and Giancarlo Stanton surrouding him. He has no issues with the move to 3rd base and has enjoyed an excellent Spring, both in the field and at the plate. He did have an off year last year, but certainly not the year before that.
There have been no mention whatsoever of any problems with the shoulder and the bad shoulder was the reason to blame for the poor numbers last year.
I understand that you see Pedroia and Hanley having similar numbers. But the real question you have to ask is Pedroias numbers are ALL lower than Hanley’s and he is 27 years old and likely in the best physical shape of his career coming into this season.
While we agree to disagree, let’s re-visit this in July and see who is having the better year. Also, the Marlins are moving into a new stadium and from all indications it will be beneficial to the hitters. Much better than Sun Life Stadium was.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Chrissy – First off, I can’t spell either. Don’t worry about it.
Not in love w/ Morales, but he’s looked great so far.
Your team really needs speed, badly. You’d going to have to somehow double your current groups output or you’ll be lucky to finish outside the bottom 4 or 5. De Aza might have to play a lot.
Staff has some solid arms, but you are lacking that elite guy. Could work out very well for you, or their could be some issues. There isn’t a arm I see though and think bad addition.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Cliff Prince – I will agree to disagree with you, but I got no issue with your point – Young is a fine hitter and super stable.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Tom Z. – I have no issue with your stated plan. In fact, if you are a forward thinking guy, it’s totally fine. Plus, 10 teams isn’t that deep, so you should still be able to roster some solid guys in the end game.
By jon on Mar 30, 2012
Hey Ray,
Quick thoughts on Luis Mendoza in 16-team mixed? Better or worse flier than Duffy? I have Young/Prado/Headley and would drop Polanco to add Mendoza.
By Cliff Prince on Mar 30, 2012
thats what makes it fun doesn’t it Ray. What are you thoughts on Juan Nicasio? I’m hearing good things out of rockie’s camp. He was pitching real well when he got hurt last year.
By Robert on Mar 30, 2012
Ray, I used your draft guide for the first time this year, and I *think* it worked out pretty well — what are your thoughts? Anything you’d look to change up? 12 team 5×5 mixed league, and I drafted 4th in a snake draft… (overall pick # in parenthesis). Thanks for everything!
M. Montero (117)
K. Youkilis (69)
D.Pedroia (21)
P. Sandoval (45)
Alexei Ramirez (124)
R. Braun (4)
H. Kendrick (76)
Adam Jones (93)
D. Ackley (141)
D. Young (213)
BENCH: Carlos Lee (172), G. Sanchez (196), Scutaro (244), C. Pena (261), A. Soriano (268)
SP: T. Lincecum (28), D. Price (52), R. Romero (100), A. Sanchez (148), J. Danks (220), J. Sanchez (292)
RP: S. Santos (165), J. Nathan (189), S. Marshall (237), S. Romo (285), K-Rod (309)
By Fenz on Mar 30, 2012
I’m glad to see that my draft went eerily similar to yours. 12-team points snake draft, five freezers, I was eyeing Hanley with the 11th pick but he was snapped up by the same guy who traded up to take Tulo, too. I resorted to Holliday then went against my grain and drafted Lee with #14. I also have Pedroia, Victorino, Romero and Santos. Based on your tweets, you seem to think Volquez might have a bounceback year. I took him with my last pick and am thinking about pitching him for Pronk or possibly Nolan Arenado. Thoughts?
By Pablo on Mar 30, 2012
Hilarious – you are asking what we think of your draft after that rant the other day? Still, love everything you and the folks at Sirius do
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Pablo – I’m turning the tables on everyone!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Fenz – I’d prefer that you roster Volquez over Hafner. Travis is limited, not much going on there despite strong spring. He’s just not going to be able to garner 500 at-bats. Volquez might disappoint, but he’s an arm worth taking a shot on.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Robert – As I wrote the other day, leagues that don’t use 5 OFs, 2 catchers, and middle/corner infielders are soooo thin. See – http://baseballguys.com/2012/03/27/how-did-i-do/
Kendrick is a nice player, really like him, but at the same time, his value is muted as an OF instead of 2B.
Your team really, really, lacks speed. You’re gonna be way down in that category. Your power looks really good.
Pitching – No complaints with your starters. Danks is better than people think. Sanchez has a huge upside, but a big risk. well worth last spot. RPs = impressive.
By Robert on Mar 30, 2012
Having read your site and followed you on Twitter for a while, I kinda knew that would be the initial response to the league setup.
And honestly, I agree, but never-the-less…
I agree about the speed. Trying to figure out a way to remedy that. As far as Kendrick goes, I’m a big fan (multi-position eligibility, some speed, AVG), but if I could deal him for Jay Bruce, would you consider doing that? I know that doesn’t help speed, but I’m still curious about your thoughts. Overall value seems about the same to me.
By Mike on Mar 30, 2012
Ray- In a deep league who would you choose as a BE option? Reuben Tejada, Beckham, Barney. Tejada is 2B/SS eligible. Would only need to use this player if Pedroia, Hanley or Hardy is hurt.
By Jeff on Mar 30, 2012
I am in a 12 team to head to head. There was a trade offered to me.
The first trade was I give up Darvish and I get King Felix.
I countered Darvish for Verlander.
Now he just countered back with Brett Lawrie, Bryce Harper, Yu Darvish for David Freese, Ryan Roberts, Justin Verlander
Montero, Fielder, Ackley, Lawrie, Ramirez, Adam Jones, Delmon Young, Lee, Votto, Ortiz, Utley, Sanchez, Scutaro, Davis, Iannetta, Harper
P – Greinke, Hamels, Bumgarner, Francisco, Venters, Myers, Robertson, Clippard, Adams, Darvish, Romero, Stauffer
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Robert – Kendrick for Bruce is a fine deal. Totally different players, an it also puts you further in the hole with speed, so don’t overlook that. You could beat teams into submission with your power, but you do lose the flexibility that you mentioned of course.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Mike – Barney should be solid, but nothing other than what we saw last year, maybe a slight up tick. The guy I would add would be Beckham. I’m not saying he’ll get there, but he has the talent to be the best guy on this list, even if his performance the past two years is wanting.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012
Jeff – Giving up Darvish to get King Felix you MUST take that. Bad idea to shoot higher for Verlander. That was never going be accepted. The King Felix offer never should have been made. You should have jumped that that offer. Go get Felix. Don’t worry about about the three way deal, but if you want to do it, you certainly can – especially if this is a redraft league. If keeper, I’d turn down.
By Eoin on Mar 31, 2012
I think Mitch above is mixing up 5-tool guys and 5-cat guys. Like he said, 5-tool guys are of no relevance to fantasy, but guys who can contribute over 5-cats are significantly more valuable than guys who only give you four in any kind of category league. I’m not sure I’d take cargo over votto, but I have taken Braun and kemp over Cabrera and Pujols in other drafts this year for that precise reason.
By Robert on Mar 31, 2012
Hey Ray…decided to keep Hendrick (can’t seem to bring myself to let go of him), but based on my roster from above, how do you feel about dropping Alfonso Soriano for Span (or Revere) or Schafer to help out with SB? I could also see dropping Pena or Scutaro instead, but no Scutaro means my only SS is Alexei Ramirez. Thoughts?
By Tom on Apr 1, 2012
Ray
Happy Birthday. May your day be filled with Oakland A’s cheerleaders.
By Donna on Apr 1, 2012
Ray- I listened to all the advise and waited on pitchers in my draft, probably too long. My team is: E. Hosmer, R. Cano, A Rod, Tulowitski, Braun, J. Upton, C. Beltran, Hanley Ramirez. I have Jesus Montero, Duda, and Prado on my bench. For pitchers: Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, Matt Moore, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Marrow, Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez. RP-JJ Putz, S. Santos.
Pitchers available are : J. Chacin, B. Norris, J. Jurrjens, M. Harrison, P. Hughes, I Nova, E. Bedard, J. Santana, Huston Street. Do you see anyone I should drop for another pitcher? Thanks for making my drive home enjoyable!
Ray- Sorry, forgot to mention I am in a 10 team H2H league.
By Ritch on Apr 1, 2012
Hi Ray,
Just want to get advice on the team I drafted.
how should I upgrade ? Probably waited to long on pitchers
First FAAB is tonight and thinking on SP: Burhlie or Colon
or Hendeson Alvarez ? Also will try and grab Sean Marshell
as I need another closer . Maybe pick up Loronzo Cain to
try out until Upton comes back ?
The league is a 10 team mixed points h2h league.
Holds count.
TEAM: 1b Prince Fielder, 2b dan uggla, 3b evan longoria
c availa, SS asdrubal carbrea, ci Paul Goldschmidt,
Mi, Jason Kipnis, OF Jay Bruce, OF Andre Either,
OF, Chris young, OF B.J. upton. DH Jason Kubel
PITCHERS: SP, Rickey Romero, Matt Latos, Matt Garza,
Gio Gonzales, Derek Holland, J. Chacin,
Vance Worley, Ryan Dempster,
Andy Petitte ( DL stash )
RP Drew Storen, Joe Nathan, Johnny Venters.
BENCH: Edwin Encarncion, Marco Scutero, Vernon Wells,
Kurt Suzuki, Peter Boujous, Kelly Johnson.
So I know my pitching is weak and have already been offered a trade: Matt Garza and Encarncion for Brandon Morrow and Guarra the closer from LAD. Should I or does it matter ?
Any advice is appreciated.
Ritch
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2012
Robert – What’s your goal with the spot? Soriano is what he is, low average, solid power, little speed. The other guys are little power, all speed. I’d prefer to keep Soriano and add a Span at the expense of a Scutaro type. He offers strong backup value no doubt, but he’s basically a replacement level bat. I do like him though: http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/09/player-profile-marco-scutaro/
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2012
Tom – Thanks, an I hope so too.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2012
Donna – Amazing offense. You’ve got parts to trade if you need to in order to boost your pitching. Your staff isn’t awful, but it will need to be managed. First, I think you should add Street. If your SPs are so-so, might as well boost your pitchers. I’d drop Duda.
By Donna on Apr 1, 2012
Ray- Even if I can play only 2 RPs?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2012
Donna – If you only play 2 RPs you’re ok. I didn’t understand that was what you were saying in your initial question.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2012
Ritch – In a 10 tm mixed lg the only way I would roster colon/alvarez/buehrle is if they were 2-start pitchers. Otherwise, they don’t interest me at all in that setup. Marshall is a much better add.Looks like you only start 1 catcher. If that’s a case, I’d give serious consideration to dropping Suzuki unless you can change lineups on a daily basis and want to maximize the position.
Guerra may not hold the job long, but he and EE are fair value.
I’d rather take the upside shot on Morrow, but if you want to hold Garza, no issues – he’s a rock whereas Morrow is all about upside at this point.
By Bob on Apr 1, 2012
What do you think about Matt Hague? Kind of reminds me of Casey McGehee coming out of nowhere and having a monster spring, making a roster, and putting up some solid numbers. Took him with the last reserve pick in my NL only league…
By big o on Apr 1, 2012
Ray :
i had a similar draft , where i opted for :
1)a-gon , 2)pedroia , 3)zimmerman .
now , i’m having 2nd thoughts and am thinking i should have taken 3)lawrie .
of course , you’re getting SB’s from cargo , which i’m not getting from a-gon , but , convince me that we picked the right 3bman .
thanking you , in advance .
By big o on Apr 1, 2012
p.s
the only fault that i find with your team is that i think you wasted your 5th round pick .
but , at least you didn’t fall into the gio gonzalez trap , this year .
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2012
Bob – Great plate discipline and average should be solid, but Matt Hague has little experience above Double-A, and doesn’t really have a power stroke. Pirates could certainly use a bat of any kind though.
By big o on Apr 1, 2012
p.s.#2
you have my e-mail address .
there’s something that i would like to say to you privately .
regards ,
big o
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2012
Big O – You should have taken someone else over AGone if you ask me (CarGo).
Lawrie has less than 50 games of big league experience. Everyone is WAY too high on him. I could be wrong, but I’m never, ever going to take a guy who is basically a rookie that early in a draft. Give me the stability of Zimmerman.