2012 Opening Day
April 4th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Finally.
I know that the games officially started last week with the epic battles staged by the Mariners and Athletics in Japan, but I’m calling today the official start of the major league season when the Cardinals take on the Marlins.
With the attrition rate of closers at this point of the preseason, will any hurler reach 40 saves this season? Hell, will any reach 30? Of course they will, but the tumultuous start for many a team in the bullpen, and remember we’ve only had a couple of major league games played to this point, is yet another indication of why you shouldn’t reach on closers on draft day. One other note in case you missed it – Alfredo Aceves will get the first shot to close for the Red Sox. No idea though if he will lead this team in saves though he is a decently skilled hurler who could thrive in the role, you never know (I’m still a fan of Mark Melancon who I think possesses better skills). Heck, I can’t stop. Here’s another note on bullpens. Looks like the White Sox still aren’t certain who they will call on in the 9th inning, but support is growing for Hector Santiago being that guy. Why? Beats me. Perhaps it’s because he has thrown all of 5.1 innings above Double-A in his life. For my thoughts on their bullpen situation see Lunacy in Chicago?
Michael Pineda says that his shoulder is feeling better. Whoppie. He’s still going to start the year on the DL, and he’s still likely to miss all of April – and that is if he doesn’t have another setback. Good luck with that.
It wouldn’t be an opening day without Grady Sizemore on the DL. He was placed on the 60 DL since he has no shot at being back on the field in April after undergoing a micro discectomy procedure on his back on March 1st. Boy that sounds bad doesn’t it?
Did the Indians overpay for Asdrubal Cabrera when they gave him an additional two years for a total of $16.5 million? He won’t repeat his 25 homer outing of last season and he hit .273 which was below his career average of .281. For further thoughts on why the Indians may have slightly overpaid see Cabrera’s Player Profile.
I don’t care if Katy Perry has blue hair. I still love her.
As of this writing the Giants still haven’t officially told Brandon Belt that he has made the club. It does appear though that he will open the year with the club, and that he could play first base with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield. “He’s been getting most of the playing time there,’’ manager Bruce Bochy said. “We’ve said we’d put the bats out there that are swinging well.” Belt has hit .389 in spring games while Huff has also produced hitting .306.
Anyone else get the feeling that Nelson Cruz isn’t going to make it through the year unscathed, or even close to it? He’s already dealt with a hand issue that kept him out of action, and now he’s being slowed by an elbow issue after taking a pitch of his left one. X-rays confirm that there is no break, and he is still expected to be ready for opening day. Is it possible that he’s getting all his injuries knocked out before the season starts? Doubtful.
Looks like Ross Detwiler will open the year as the Nationals fifth starter as the club has decided to send John Lannan to the minors in a surprising move. “I look at it this way, Detwiler earned the job,” general manager Mike Rizzo said. “He deserved the job. It was a prudent baseball move for the current Nationals and the future Nationals.” As exciting as the news is for Detwiler and his NL-only prospects, don’t forget that Chien-Ming Wang isn’t expected to miss much more than four weeks and at that time Detwiler will likely end up returning to the bullpen. If you’re an owner of Lannan in a mixed league, it’s time to move on.
All the prep work, all the late nights of telling your significant other that you didn’t have time for them because you had to break down middle infielder’s BABIP are over. Now it’s time for all your hard work the entire offseason to start to payoff. Enjoy it for a day or two. After that, get back at it because the baseball season is perfect for those of you out there who are willing to work at the daily grind. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the 2012 season.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alfredo Aceves, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aubrey Huff, Brandon Belt, Grady Sizemore, Hector Santiago, John Lannan, Michael Pineda, Nelson Cruz, Opening Day, Ross Detwiler
By Bigs on Apr 4, 2012
Whats up Ray ? Would you drop Jordan Walden for Aceves ? Thanks again
By Ray Flowers on Apr 4, 2012
Bigs – Please tell me you didn’t just ask if you should drop Walden for Aceves.
Have you ever read anything I’ve written about how to evaluate pitchers?
By Bigs on Apr 4, 2012
Wow . I was just looking for another opinion. Sorry to bother you.
By Keith on Apr 4, 2012
LOLOLOL. Go easy on ‘im, Ray. Geez. Bigs, the other opinion is holy hell no.
By Bigs on Apr 4, 2012
Keith thanks for the opinion. Once again I would like to apologize to the “all mighty” Ray Flowers for asking a question that is beneath him. Ray I have listened to you and read your article’s for a while now and I cant help but notice your ever growing narcissism.I do respect your opinion. I know that you know what your talking about . However I do not read every blog you write. I do notice your ever growing frustration with the questions you get asked. If you are going to go out of your way to try to make people feel stupid about their question’s, then you should get rid of this part of your blog. It would have been much easier for you to type “walden”,rather then trying to make yet another of your subscribers appear to be intellectually inferior to your self…but then again that appears to be your new M.O
By Ray Flowers on Apr 4, 2012
Bigs – This has nothing to do with being intellectually superior – and I’m certainly making no such claim in any of my writings, or speeches. Did you see the reply from Keith who said “Bigs, the other opinion is holy hell no.” I’m not the only one who finds your question about which guy to add to be a odd – it has nothing to do with me being smarter than anyone – it’s just a bad question.
I write every day and talk about it every day for three hours – I try to educate people on how to evaluate players. It grows frustrating when I get questions that show that people don’t take the time to read or listen to my suggestions on how to evaluate players. I try to educate people so that they can make informed decisions.
Aceves -
SKILLS: Below league average K/9 rate. Average K/BB rate. Above average BB/9 rate (bad news). Below average GB/FB. He’s simply not that good a pitcher.
ROLE: Aceves has also never filled the closers role before, he has four career saves. Also, he’s no lock to remain the closer for three weeks, let alone three or four months. Simply put, Mark Melancon has better skills.
Aceves has worse skills than Walden, and his reliability grade is probably 50% of what Walden is at right now.
By Matt K on Apr 4, 2012
Ray, I have pitcher’s in garza, moore, josh johnson, morrow, mccarthy,s. romo, league, hanranhan, I just had hudson go on the dl what do u think about picking up jim johnson as a closer or capuano, or niemann for a starting pitcher? I also have n. morgan, rasmus, to drop if I need too. What are your thoughts? Its a 14 team mixed league ip/s/qs/s/era/whip league.
O sorry and I have sean marshall as the 3rd closer.
By Joe M on Apr 4, 2012
Hey Ray
Quick waiver question (12 team mix, roto)
Should I give up my #1 waiver spot for J.P Howell?
I only have one closer (Balfour) and 4 potential guys who are not closing at the moment (Jensen, Romo, Salas, and Chapman)
By Jim on Apr 4, 2012
A blue-haired Katy Perry on Opening Day, and all was made well in the world again.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 4, 2012
Jim – Love me some Katy P.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 4, 2012
Joe M . – I would NOT give up a #1 waiver spot to add Howell in mixed lg. Hope. Even in your situation of need. Keep that #1 spot.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 4, 2012
Matt K – Might as well try to get some more cheap saves. Add JJohnson. If he doesn’t pan out, drop him when Hudson comes back.
By Keith on Apr 4, 2012
I just want to add one thing about Aceves, for anyone else thinking about picking him up – I find it really odd that Valentine wants him closing. Regardless of what his skills profile as, his previous managers have used him in long relief / mop-up, and he has excelled in that role. His biggest skill is vulturing comeback wins, because he’s been on really good teams. Wouldn’t surprise me if Valentine flips him back there first time he needs him.
By Bangs on Apr 4, 2012
Katy Perry … not a huge fan, and she certainly is no Katharine McPhee … but if the carpet matches the drapes, it could be interesting …
By Ray Flowers on Apr 4, 2012
Bangs – That’s just wrong, but at the same time so right.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 4, 2012
Keith – I agree with you. Aceves isn’t a strong big league pitcher. He’s been an effective one, and he’s leveraged a bunch of situations into some nice results, but I’d be very surprised if he holds on to the closers job in Boston.
By Ender on Apr 4, 2012
Aceves is terrible, can’t imagine a scenario where he is still the closer come May.
By shmmrname on Apr 5, 2012
Bigs
You drafted Walden. His skills haven’t diminished AND his role hasn’t changed. I’m not exactly sure why Walden would be on the chopping block, especially before the season actually starts. Let alone that the his potential replacement lacks a fantasy-friendly skill-set and has only a temporary hold on the job (at best). Plus, if you’re trolling for saves – you probably should be looking to ADD to your bullpen, not just swap CL-for-CL.
Ray – Do I drop Valverde, Axford or Putz for Santiago?
Ray – I’m sorry for the joke – Can I get any thoughts on A. Rios/A. Pagan/D. Span bounce-backs? (I don’t need career years)
By Brian on Apr 5, 2012
A quick pitching question. In a 12 team mixed H2H. I have Bailey, should I drop him or use DL spot. I have Lester,Strausburg,Bumgarner,Morrow,McCarthy, Holland. went with the Jansen,Robertson,S. Romo, A. Reed, and Meleancon. Should I pick up another starter or releif pitcher? Thanks http://games.espn.go.com/flb/clubhouse?leagueId=81281&teamId=6
BB
By Nick on Apr 5, 2012
The best thing Aceves has going for him is that he’s bat sh*t insane. Def a good quality to have in a closer.
By Joe M on Apr 5, 2012
Hey Ray
I took your advice and got shafted big time (not because of the advice)
I didnt give up my #1 waiver pick for howell and the waivers reset last night and since I had players in the Japan games I was in first place and now I have #12 waiver.
The waiver was not supposed to reset since its not a weekly league (it was last year but they overlooked the waiver rule when changing the settings)
They’re changing the rule from here on out and I’m going absolutely nuts. They would give me #1 spot again but theres no commish tools for it.
I proposed at least start this rule next week after everyone has had games, like this whatever waiver pick I have will probably be better than 12 and will at least be a more fair order than what it is now.
I held back from a few players just to get the #1.. I’m so pissed off right now
Your thoughts or suggestions?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Joe M – I don’t understand our situation. Are you saying that your waivers is run in reverse order of the standings meaning if you’re in last place you get the #1 wavier priority? MLB screwed this whole thing up – big time – with the Japan games. I don’t know what you can do if your league service can’t handle this setup. You can ask everyone to allow you the first selection, but why would you be awarded the first selection anyway? Is it because you finished last season in last place or because you had the last pick in your draft this year?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Shmmrnmae – Here is a link to my write up on Alex Rios – http://baseballguys.com/2011/11/29/player-profile-alex-rios/
Span I’m a big fan of. Drafted him for my TOUT WARS team. As long as he’s healthy, and hitting atop the Twins order, in line for a nice bounceback season.
http://baseballguys.com/2012/03/26/tout-wars-a-review/
Pagan – not sold on. The Giant decision to put Belt at first and Huff in the OF creates playing time issues. Huff, Pagan and Cabrera are the likely starters, but the team really wants to get Schierholtz involved. The steals should be there, but his overall game just isn’t impressive.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Brian – If you have a DL spot, but Bailey on it and add another pitcher. I’d be reluctant to use him as a bench spot, but in your case with the DL available, you should be ok.
By Joe M on Apr 5, 2012
The waiver started based on the draft order reversed, so I started with #4 (i drafted 9th of 12)
I got to #1 because people (the guys who were 1, 2, and 3) made pickups over the last few days.
Then the league reset the waivers based on rules we had last year (weekly lineups) where it changes automatically before every scoring period (based on the teams standings).
I guess cbs considered the week 1 scoring period to end yesterday. This year we don’t have scoring periods since we moved from the weekly format. Given the new league settings the weekly waiver rule we had in place last season should not be in effect with a daily league.
When they realized this happened they changed the league setting to not resetting waivers every week. Problem is I get shafted since I had players in the Japan games and most teams didn’t.
So I at least suggested to start this new setting after a full week of games and not today when most teams didn’t have a player play yet. I still might end up with 12 if im in first place next week, but its the only thing I can think of to at least make this adjustment fair and not to be based on one game.
By Brian on Apr 5, 2012
Ray
Whould you add another starter or good quality middle reliver? With my starters i could add someone with some upside? Give me some names I have a ton that are on the waiver wire. Just need your expertise on this. If I go with reliver so I go Benoit, Rodriquiez(was)
Once again thanks for your help and draft stuff. You are SUPERFANTASTIC.
bb
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Brian – why dont you give me a couple of names. No way I can know who is on your waiver-wire. Also, how many teams in your lg, how many pitchers you start?
By Fenz on Apr 5, 2012
Ray, I have some bubble players on the bench I’m thinking of dumping to beef up my pitching in a 12-team mixed points league. What are your thoughts on Ogando, G. Holland and sole TX lefty reliever Robbie Ross? Ogando’s eligible at SP, which lets me have a fifth reliever (we have 4 RP limit, daily trans). Would get rid of Wilson Ramos and fly solo at C with Santana.
By Steve on Apr 5, 2012
Ray – LOVE YOUR SHOW on the radio! I’m sure Kay isn’t too hard to work with, too…
Question: Would you consider trading Pineda?
I’m in an AL-only, 5×5, auction league. C, 1b, 2b, SS, MI, 3b, CI, 4OF, UT, 8P, 5Bench. What is your gut telling you about Pineda’s injury? My roster looks like this:
C – Pierzynski
1B – Teixeira
2B – Johnson.Ke
3B – Lawrie
SS – Ramirez.Al
MI – Kipnis
CI – Dunn
OF – Ellsbury
OF – Granderson
OF – Reddick
OF – Young.De
UT – Morales
P1 – Alvarez.H
P2 – Beckett
P3 – Hochevar
P4 – Holland.D
P5 – Niemann
P6 – Peralta.J
P7 – Nathan
P8 – Walden
Bench – Morel, Murphy.Da, Doumit, Pineda, Wilhelmsen
Where do you think my weaknesses are? Strengths? Starting pitching isn’t the greatest, but they are competitive. Same goes for speed, but I figure I can find that easier than power, which I think I’ve evenly spread among the offense.
Thanks for your time and I’m be listening to your show… AND IF you or one of your colleagues are ever in the Boston area, you HAVE to come out to family’s Chinese restaurant in Arlington, MA.
By Brian on Apr 5, 2012
Sorry for not giving you alot information, was just following up with my first question. I am in a 12 team mixed H2H we can start 12 pitchers a week. Use standard ERA, WHIP, SO, W, SV. If I add a starter i am looking at Delgado,Pomeranz,Milone,Alvarez(Tor), or go with Benoit, or Rodriquez(was).
Sorry again my bad!!
BB
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Fenz – If your league only starts one catcher, and there are 12 teams, you don’t have to have a backup on your roster. I’d move on from Ramos an add Holland. Ogando is a solid option and might be a nice add given SP/RP option, but I’d still go Holland.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Steve – I don’t think you can trade Pineda in an AL only lg, not unless you get full value. At this point, don’t see how anyone would pay that at this point. He got a good report today.
Very solid offense. Pitching a bit spotty for SPs, but STRONG pen, especially with Peralta now getting some save chances.
If we make it out to Boston, I’ll mention it on air, and you can send me a follow up about your gracious offer to visit the restaurant.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Brian – My thoughts on Henderson Alvarez are here: http://baseballguys.com/2012/04/02/player-profile-henderson-alvarez/
Delgado had big K numbers in spring, but his overall performance was potty as best.
If I was adding a guy I’d take a shot on Delgado and his arm, or Milone and hope he strikes it big.
By Steve on Apr 6, 2012
Ray – THANKS. That’s what I thought, too. Nobody is going to pay fair value for Pineda right now unless he shows something… and at that point, I may not need to trade Pineda UNLESS (a) my team suffers major injuries (b) does not perform to expectations or (c) I get bowled over with an offer. There are a few yankee fans in the league and they may reach for him, but thanks for the advice.
Definitely let me know when you’re in Boston! Also, there is no expiration date to the offer.