Relievers: Wild Wild West
April 5th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
We’re less than a week into the fantasy baseball season, and already people are running to the waiver-wire to address the need to fill the saves category in the fantasy game (is this a great time to bring up why we should include Solds as the fifth fantasy category in place of saves? Solds is saves+holds, and it would give middle relievers as much of a chance to be productive as a closer, so instead of worry about who to roster cause you need a closer, you could simply add the best reliever and be done with it). I’m doing to address the hottest situations of the last few days – Nationals, Rays and Red Sox – right after I break down some thoughts on how everyone should be looking at these situations.
I know that everyone didn’t purchase the 2012 Baseball Guys Draft Guide, if you did you’re likely not in the predicament that some people now find themselves in, but here are a few salient bits of information that I suggested people keep in mind when putting together a team.
When choosing a reliever, target arms that:
Have a K/9 rate of 7.50 or better.
Have a BB/9 rate under 3.00
Have a K/BB rate of at least 2.50
It would also be great if they have a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or better.
* The article PITCHING TARGETS in the Draft Guide breaks these numbers down in much greater detail giving lists of pitchers that qualify.
This also brings up the point that I always preach:
Target skills, not roles.
I want the best pitchers on my team. I have no idea how/when/why a manger might change what he will do in the 9th inning. In simple terms – I don’t want a guy on my team merely cause he is the closer. I want a guy on my team who has the skills to be successful. At some point you need saves, and if you have to roster a guy with poor ratios to get them then so be it, but there is little reason to desperately try and grab “closers” with poor skills off the waiver-wire in the first week of the season. Remember that. It’s a long year, 162 games worth, and just cause a guy is set to close right now doesn’t mean he will be closing in August.
NATIONALS
Closer: Drew Storen (likely out until late April)
Replacements: Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez
This is a bad situation to jump into. It was announced today that Lidge and Rodriguez will alternate working the ninth inning game after game. If you’re in a weekly league, it’s almost impossible to use either guy given that fact. Even in a roto league, be very careful here. If Storen is back in three weeks as expected, how much are you willing to pay for 2-3 saves if you add either backup option?
RAYS
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth (elbow strain. No structural damage)
Replacement: Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, J.P. Howell, Jake McGee
Farnsworth could miss two weeks or two months, we don’t really know, though expectations are that he won’t be out long-term. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rays will go with a closer by committee situation. So what do you do here? Rodney is a disaster and his skill set doesn’t come close to matching my “rules” from above. Howell does have a strong skill set but he walks too many batters (4.19 per nine for his career), is left handed and he threw just 30.2 innings last season. That leaves Peralta as the best choice, not just by default either, but also because of his skills. The last two seasons for Peralta have led to some impressive numbers: 8.49 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 an a 4.07 K/BB. The only thing he doesn’t do is induce grounders (his GB/FB ratio for his career is atrocious at 0.66).
RED SOX
Closer: Andrew Bailey (thumb surgery, out 3-4 months)
Replacement: Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon
This is the situation that has me most surprised. Bailey goes down, he’s out at least the first half of the 2012 season, and the Sox name Aceves the closer. What ensues is a stampede to the waiver-wire to add Aceves as everyone suddenly seems to think he’s an elite closer. I’m not kidding. EVERYWHERE I look people are pushing, shoving, lying and stealing in order to add Aceves. A brief example of that is my Twitter Poll that I ran for two hours today. Of the four options people were given to add to their staff, Aceves was chosen 64 percent of the time. Why? I suggest it’s merely because he is a Red Sox (over at Fleaflicker it doesn’t seem that the craziness has taken full hold). Let’s break Aceves down.
His career K/9 mark is 6.26, well below the 7.50 mark I like to target.
His BB/9 mark is 2.70 for his career, below the 3.00 mark I like to target.
His K/BB ratio is 2.32, below the 2.50 mark I like to target.
His GB/FB ratio is 0.88, below the 1.50 mark I like to target.
Furthermore, even if you don’t like my targets, consider this.
His career K/9 mark is below the big league average.
His career K/BB ratio is one tenth better the big league average.
His GB/FB is well below the big league average.
To summarize, Aceves is a pitcher with average big league skills. Period. Just take a look at his xFIP. For his career that mark is 4.54, more than a run an a half above his 2.93 raw ERA. Simply put he’s the anti-Ricky Nolasco. Aceves is someone who has had success that he hasn’t completely deserved. Moreover, and people seem to be looking right past this, he has no experience in the ninth inning with four career saves. I’ve said it, but let me write it for you all one more time; Mark Melancon is a more highly skilled pitcher. His K-rate is better, he generates a significantly higher ground ball rate (his 2.64 GB/FB ratio last season is better than what you get when you combined Aceves’ marks the past two years – 2.52), and Melancon is the one who has experience working the 9th inning (20 saves last year for the Astros). Please heed my warning an avoid going all in on Aceves. If you do, the odds say that you will likely regret it.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Bailey, Brad Lidge, Closers, Drew Storen, Fernando Rodney, Henry Rodriguez, J.P. Howell, Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth, Mark Melancon
By shmmrname on Apr 5, 2012
While the turnover is certainly high with good-to-elite RP’s, it’s also makes it very fun. There probably isn’t a position with more unknowns. And, every year there are gems to find in your FA pool.
We count holds, and play 5 RP’s – so most traditional 8th inning set-up men are already rostered. But, even with that being the case, there is still a good amount of high-upside arms that come out of (seemingly) nowhere.
Just a couple I like – Cishek and Brothers, but I’m sure there will be 5 or so more names to emerge in the next 4-6 weeks.
By Keith on Apr 5, 2012
Agreed. In my league we also play 5 RPs and count holds, so we draft the setup men too. Last season I actually had too many of my drafted setup men graduate to closer, so I had all the saves I needed, and had to look around to find more holds.
Always be on the lookout for “the next” guy!
By jon on Apr 5, 2012
Thanks for this, Ray. I still like Holland a lot but it’s hard to own him right now over Aceves or Peralta (both of whom I have) in a saves-only league.
One other q: how much do you vault Mark Buehrle up rankings in a league that counts QS in addition to Wins? He’s SO consistent (15 in a row or something last year?) couple that with his new home park and he’s gotta be at least matchups-worthy in a 10-team, QS league no?
Happy Openig day, buddy!
By Ricky S on Apr 5, 2012
Ray,
Am I crazy to think Zack Cozart is going to be better than Yunel Escobar in 5×5 this year? Cozart has some talent and is batting between Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. He should at the very least score a lot of runs. If I am crazy, please convince me as to why.
Thanks
By Pd on Apr 5, 2012
While its bad luck the sox lost Mr. Glass Bailey Valentine had to prove how he is smarter than everyone with the quick hook of Mark today. Valentine will screw this up all year he should have stayed in the booth boring us all with his “back in my day” stories. BTW did u know Valentine claims to have invented the Wrap sandwich? What a narcissistic douche. I hate closers I hate the bull shit save stat. Verlander Holliday should have had shut outs today. Let them finish the damn games!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Keith – smart minds think alike. lol
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Jon – It’s still a 10 team lg, and Buehrle still won’t ever strike anyone out. He would move up in QS league a bit for sure, but it’s not going to erase the fact that he’s merely a moderately skilled pitcher. Move him up 10 spots maybe, but still rather boring.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
Ricky S – Yes, you are crazy. LOL.
I ding it highly improbable that Cozart outperforms Escobar. If both men get 500 ABs, I’d be shocked if it wasn’t Escobar who finishes with better numbers.
Escobar is hitting at the top of the Jays order.
Escobar has experience.
He’s a more highly skilled hitter at this point of each guys development.
Simple as that.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 5, 2012
PD – I agree with most of what you say up until the end.
Pulling Verlander and Halladay at this point of the year is fine. Pitchers are still building up arm strength, so there is no need to tax them too early. You want them to be strong in the later months of the season.
By big o on Apr 5, 2012
Ray :
maybe i should have asked this on the previous post , but , re: Katy Perry in blue hair :
is this your “closer plan” ? … going from
blue hair to blue heads ??
are you , therefore , in the “middle reliever”
period of your life ???
just curious .
By Mark on Apr 6, 2012
Ray- I have the draft guide, but am not sure how much weight you give saves for RP’s? Who would you say is the best pitcher between League, Mott, and Jansen if you were looking at K’s, ERA, and WHIP?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 6, 2012
Mark – The best pitcher out of that trio in the three categories figures to be, in order, Jansen, Motte, League.
By ritch on Apr 7, 2012
ray,
thanks for the advice yesterday on Closers.
My trade parameneters have changed. A second offer has popped up.
Shaun Marcum , and Huston Street and Mike Moustakas FOR: Matt Garza
and Edwin Encarncion. THE FIRST OFFER: was Brandon Morrow, Huston Street,and Mike Moustakas for Matt Garza, Edwin Encarncion and Andre Ethier. I felt this was a lot to give yp but I do need another closer with
Storen on DL. Again I am in a 10 team, mixed,points league where holds count.
What do you think ? Better Offer ???
Ritch
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2012
Ritch – Garza is stable. Nothing bad to say there. EE can be a 15 or 25 HR guy, all over the map.
Marcum is a really solid arm if healthy. IF healthy. Is he? Dating back to Sept. last year, he’s looked pretty bad.
Street certainly addresses your need at RP.
Moose is in line for a nice season, though to be honest, may not be much diff than EE.
This one hinges on Marcum’s health. Big risk to take at this point.
By Ritch on Apr 8, 2012
Thanks Ray.
As always you get to the heart of the matter.
Marcum has had issues which is why the other team is pushing
him. Ideally I would need to see a couple of outings. By him first .
I suppose I could go back to the Morrow , Street, Moustakas,
for Garza, Encarnacion, Ethier deal , only ask for Sean Marshall
instead of Street. What do you think ? Just trying to not give up
the farm because of my hard closer luck.
Ritch
By Evan Gudmestad on Apr 10, 2012
Thanks Ray. I needed to read this!
By Cosmo on Apr 11, 2012
It seems you missed the boat almost entirely with this article unless it was written a long time ago. Aceves is the closer but his team is 1-6. Rodriguez is closing in Washington as Storen will be out longer. Lastly, Rodney is closing in Tampa Bay and he looks lights out. Soooooo…
By Cosmo on Apr 11, 2012
P.S.- Solds???? Geez. You don’t put much stock in saves but I play in points leagues and holds get you diddley. It’s all about the save(usually 5 points). It doesn’t matter if a pitcher is doing great if he’s pitching the 8th inning. TC
By Ryan on Apr 12, 2012
Ray, in the reserve round of my NL only league I picked up Derrek Lee (who I know you picked up for $4 in one of the expert leagues) and Roy Oswalt. How much time should I recently wait for these guys to come back before waiving one or both of them for much needed roster space? I also need your thoughts on two other guys on my bench: Jerry Sands (who I got for $1) and Juan Francisco. Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
Cosmo – This article was written a Week ago on April 5th . Everything in it was accurate when it was written. Aceves still isn’t a good saves bet. The Nats situation is totally different now that Storen is out after surgery. Rodney still stinks and won’t hold that job unless something odd happens. Oh, and just cause a guy has a 9th inning job doesn’t make him a good pitcher, and it’s why I champion Solds over saves. We should get away from simply running to the waiver wire to add the new flavor of the week in the 9th inning. Instead we should be focused on how good the pitcher actually is.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
Ryan – I picked up Derrek Lee myself in the LABR NL draft as you referenced. Now granted, that was on March 3rd, and we’re five weeks removed from that and he still hasn’t signed. I’d be very nervous about him, but as a reserve pick, why not take a shot. Totally diff with Oswalt. You MUST keep him. No telling where he signs, could be AL and then you’d get nothing, but if its with an NL team you struck it rich. The other two outfielders, for a dollar, no problem with them.
By Ritch on Apr 15, 2012
Ray,
it looks like the closer wild west continues.
My current closers on my team in my 10 team, mixed, h2h
points league are: Hector Santiago, Joe Nathan, Aceves
Venters, Peralta, with Storen on the DL.
I have been offered Chris Perez for Venters and Pettite or
Chris Perez for Venters and $ 5.00 FAAB money.
My question is do I make this trade ? Seems like Perez has
righted himself some what . I can’t get Pestano he’s taken and
that owner is trying to package him in a Chacin/ Santiago
for Duffy/Pestano + $10.00 FAAB to me. Giving up a living breathing
closer makes no sense. What do you think ?
Ritch
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Ritch – Perez would help you get saves, but he’s not the pitcher that Venters is, not even close. Still, you really need an infusion of save potential, so I’d do the deal. Send away Venters and Pettitte (Andy P is useless in a 10 tm lg).
By ritch on Apr 15, 2012
Thanks Ray,
I asked you this one a week ago Garza/Encarncion FOR Marcum/Moustakas/Guerra. Marcum question was about health risk.
How do feel this week about that trade. EE has been killing it of late and Garza is doing well.
Ritch
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Ritch – Since Sept 1 last year (9 starts incl playoffs), 7.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP. Scary numbers for Marcum. Garza/EE looking like better option here. I’m still not sold on Marcum’s health.
By ritch on Apr 15, 2012
Gotcha. Thanks Ray.
This trading stuff is very tough for us mortals.
I appreciate your advice.
Ritch