What We Learned
April 6th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
The regular season still hasn’t officially gotten underway for all the teams, great scheduling MLB, but that issue will finally be rectified Friday. We do have a fair number of baseball games in the books, so what did we learn that we might be able to apply to the world of fantasy baseball?
Jose Bautista already qualifies as a third baseman and outfielder. On opening day he also moved over to play first base after the Jays removed Adam Lind in favor of a pinch runner. It’s only one game, but it hints that Bautista just might play five or 10 games at the position this year, the threshold in many leagues for a player to pick up positional eligibility which would only further enhance his obvious value.
Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #1
Justin Verlander pitches eight scoreless innings and picked up a no-decision after Jose Valverde blew the save after not blowing a single one of his 49 opportunities last season. The guy who blew the game, Valverde, ended up with the victory when the Tigers came back to win. Remember what I always say about chasing victories? Or how about how I always say that you should never use a pitchers won-loss record as a judge of his performance? See what I’m saying?
Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #2
Jon Lester didn’t quite match Verlander Thursday, but he pitched very well allowing just one run in seven innings. He ended up with a no-decision when the Red Sox bullpen blew it. Mark Melancon ended up with the loss, but it was Alfredo Aceves who actually deserved the loss (for my thoughts on the Red Sox Bullpen see: Relievers, Wild, Wild, West). He came into the game, hit a batter, and then gave up the game winning hit. Still, Aceves escaped with an unblemished record despite not getting an out in the effort.
You’re daily talk about closers… the Royals settled on Jonathan Broxton as their lead man in the 9th inning. At one time one of my favorites, Broxton was amazing in 2009 when he won seven games, saved 36, posted a 2.61 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and had a dominating 13.50 K/9 mark. Seasons like that lead you to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for Broxton, it’s his only season of more than 22 saves, and it was also the last time he was an effective big league pitcher. Over the last two seasons Broxton has been injured an just passable in terms of his production: 6-8, 4.32 ERA an a 1.55 WHIP. He still struck out 9.96 batters per nine innings, but he only threw 75 innings in the two seasons as he just couldn’t stay healthy. I can understand why the Royals went with him in the 9th, he has the most experience of their bullpen arms and could bring a nice return if moved at the trade deadline (he’s on a one year deal), but I’m still not convinced he is going to be able to hold off Greg Holland all year.
Josh Collmenter was lucky as all heck last year to post a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 154.1 innings. He didn’t strike anyone out (5.83 per nine), had a terrible GB/FB ratio (0.71) and seemingly got by mostly on his funky delivery. He looked lost all spring training and it won’t take much for the team to consider moving him to the bullpen, not with Trevor Bauer looking ready to give it a go in the majors. In his first start of the year at Double-A Bauer allowed just two hits and no runs, while striking out seven, in five innings.
Johnny Cueto ended last season with a 2.31 ERA but he threw only 156 innings falling short of qualifying for the NL ERA crown (a pitcher needs 162 innings). Well, he added to that excellence in his first start as he tossed seven shutout innings for the Reds. He induced 10 ground balls continuing a trend he started last season of generating a ton of ground balls. Speaking of the Reds, Aroldis Chapman looked completely dominating with two strikeout in a hitless 8th inning. When he is locating his pitches batters stand nary a chance of making hard contact.
Edinson Volquez allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings in his first start with the Padres. Unfortunately he picked up a loss as he walked four batters, including two with the bases loaded. All he needs to do is to throw strikes to be effective. The question is, can he?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alfredo Aceves, Aroldis Chapman, Edinson Volquez, Greg Holland, Johnny Cueto, Jon Lester, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Bautista, Josh Collmenter, Justin Verlander, Mark Melancon, Trevor Bauer
By jon on Apr 6, 2012
Really nice round-up, Ray. A little surprised you left out Bedard’s surprising (?) success againt Philly. How would you rate him compared to guys like Danks & Dempster in a 10-team with QS and K/9? Better than both when healthy but unlikely to stay on the mound?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 6, 2012
Jon – Did you pick up a copy of my BBGuys Draft Guide? Nothing has changed after a handful of games in terms of my rankings. Just as it was a week ago I’d go Danks, Dempster, Bedard.
By jon on Apr 6, 2012
I do have the guide – thanks! Going to time my update carefully. Heh. One more: do you think Pestano is closer than Jansen at this point to sniffing Saves? I only have space for one of them. My league counts K/9 but the potential drop-off in k/9 seems worth the likelihood of Pestano taking over before Jansen.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 6, 2012
Jon – what do you mean you are going to time your update carefully when you are referring to the Draft Guide? Just to be clear, it’s a draft guide, it is not going to be updated daily moving forward.
Pestano likely closer to saves, but I still want Jansen.
By jon on Apr 6, 2012
Hey sorry, Ray. Misread the point about the “one free update.” Thought it was for a point later in the season, as you update your rankings for the remainder of the year. But fret not: I’m totally satisfied! Thanks as ever.
By Tim on Apr 6, 2012
Ray-
Read your “Life isn’t always fair” comment to really mean: Wins are an AWFUL category in fantasy baseball. I’ve been proposing quality starts in all my leagues and made sure to e-mail all my leagues last night to try and get the motion heard once again.
Nothing about Chris Perez? O/U as to when he is put on the DL or is replaced?
- Vinnie Owner
By Ray Flowers on Apr 6, 2012
Tim – Quality starts might be a bit better than W-L, but note: 6 IP, 3 ER is a 4.50 ERA. The big lg average last year was 3.94. That means you can throw a “quality start” and be worse than big lg average. That’s not something that should be rewarded.
Perez has a long leash as long as he is healthy. CLE loves him. Though I did warn, in my Draft Guide, to be very nervous about him this season.
By Jim Belcik on Apr 6, 2012
Ray- I have the number one pick on waviers. Someone dropped Chris Sale today. I was thinking of dropping Henderson Alvarez to pick him up. Is Sale worth using this top spot? My other starters are Matt Moore, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright,Corey Luebke, Edinson Volquez,Erik Bedard,and i have Ted Lilly on the DL. And if I do pick up sale what do I do when Lilly comes off the Dl? I really don’t want to drop any of my bats. Please help! thanks Jim.
By david on Apr 6, 2012
hi, ray. trade question in a 12 team mixed 6×6 head-to-head category league. the sixth categories are losses for pitchers and K’s for batters. i’m pretty deep at outfield (we field 4), granderson, ellsbury, victorino, beltran, werth, vernon wells and swisher. my starting rotation is thin because all my bench spots are filled with bats. i have weaver, greinke, anibal sanchez, kuroda, brandon mccarthy. the trade is: werth for brandon morrow. i know you like both players (draft guide), but does werth’s high K total make this trade a plus for me in our format? i could offer beltran instead of werth, whose lower k total rate bumps up his value in our league. not sure he gets the trade done though. thanks.
By wesley on Apr 7, 2012
Hey Ray, Couple simple questions for you. Would you drop scutaro for Desmond. And would you drop wells,or RP aceves for Daniel Murphy . I have 3 closers besides Aceves ? thanks again Happy Easter
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2012
Jim Belcik – I’m not a huge fan of Henderson Alvarez. See http://baseballguys.com/2012/04/02/player-profile-henderson-alvarez/
If you wanted to move him for Sale, I have no problem with that at all. Sale has a huge arm. Questions about how he handles move back to starting, but I like him.
By the time Lilly is ready to go, Bedard will probably be hurt. j/k A lot can change in two weeks, so I’d wait until then to make a decision. If you are certain you will drop a hurler, then maybe you pass on Sale, just drop Alvarez, and save your waiver wire priority.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2012
David – If you only start 4 OFs, you have plenty of depth so you can make a deal. Werth for Morrow seems to be a pretty even deal. However, if Werth rebounds to hit .270-25-80-80-20 that’s a pretty big bat to give up. Counting Ks makes little sense to me, but since your league does you are right – it certainly dings Werth. You can survive with a 4th OF of Beltran/Swisher. I’d rather move Beltran then Werth, but either should suffice.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2012
Wesley – I had Desmond and Scutaro one spot apart in my preseason rankings. You can go with either. Scutaro way better average, Desmond way more speed.
Aceves – not a fan of as you know. Still, I cant tell someone who already has him to dump him, not when he’s the current closer. Vernon Wells should rebound, so I dont love the idea of dumping him either.
By Jim Belcik on Apr 7, 2012
Ray- Thanks for the advice. What I’m going to do is wait and see if Sale passes through waviers. If he does I’ll just drop Alvarez and pick up Sale and see where things are when lilly comes off the DL. Thanks again!!!!
By David on Apr 7, 2012
Hey Ray, I was offered Gio Gonzalez for Mat Latos. Who do you like better and what do you think about the trade?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2012
David – Fair trade for both teams. Gio has a slightly higher K ceiling. Latos dealing with a bit of health concerns at this point. Really about which guy you want. They were only apart by a handful of spots in my preseason rankings.
By Robert on Apr 8, 2012
Hey Ray…Think I should drop Ogando, Romo, or K-Rod for Hector Santiago? I already have Santos, Nathan, and Marshall as closers. 12-tm, H2H, 5×5 — no holds category.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2012
Robert – Given your situation, I’d take a shot on Santiago. I’d drop K-Rod since Ogando is sort of a handcuiff for Nathan (though Adams would likely get the first shot if he’s healthy).
By Mitch on Apr 9, 2012
Ray – who should i be sending out at SS in a H2H 12 team weekly 6×6: Zack Cozart or Alexei Ramírez
By Keith on Apr 9, 2012
Hey Ray – no question here, just think you’ll get a kick out of this.
Don’t chase wins, right?
Real life result, first week head to head. I swept every pitching category against my opponent except one. We count Ws and quality starts too. I had 4 QS to his 3.
He beat me in wins 1 – 0. The one win was Valverde’s on his blown save.
Totally random.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 9, 2012
Mitch – At this point you have to be sending out Alexei Ramirez. Until Cozart proves he can hit big league pitching, I don’t know how you’d bench a guy who has been a top-10 SS for four years.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 9, 2012
Keith – you hit it right on the head my friend. Also another reason why doing H2H stinks.
By Robert on Apr 9, 2012
Well, Ray, I was too slow and someone beat me to Santiago. (cue the sad trombone)…I think I already know the answer, but would you still drop K-Rod for Brett Myers?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 9, 2012
Robert – Go ahead and add Myers. With the way that the fantasy game is set up, 5×5, those guys locked in to closing jobs have plenty of value. KRod is a better pitcher, but baring an injury to Axford, his value won’t be as high.