Panic in the Streets
April 10th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
It’s early in the fantasy baseball season, but that doesn’t mean that certain people aren’t already in full on panic mode. Are you one of those folks? I’ll offer some advice on why it might make a lot of sense to remain patient. I’ll also break down two huge money deals given to two of the best second baseman in the game.
It’s almost as if Godzilla was thundering down the street smashing everything in his way. Or perhaps that was Chicken Little running down the street screaming that the sky is falling. Or perhaps the fella running wildly with his shirt off is one of those people who are convinced that the world will end upon the completion of the 2012 calendar year.
Truth be told, it’s probably someone in your fantasy league. There has to be, has to be, at least one person in your league who is already willing to blow up their team. I know this to be a fact because you should see all the questions I’ve been getting at the BaseballGuys Twitter page. Obviously a week worth of games isn’t even close to enough data to make a judgment about anything. It just isn’t despite what people may be telling you. The baseball season is 162 games long. Like a fine wine, you have to give it time to reach it’s peak. Stay the course and remain patient. Let me drop some knowledge on you all. Here are the 2011 April numbers of a few of the stars of the game. Did all of them not rebound and produce solid fantasy seasons last year?
Brett Gardner hit .188 in April of 20111. He finished the year at .259.
Carlos Lee hit .194. He finished the year at .275.
Nick Markakis hit .204. He finished the year at .284.
Jimmy Rollins hit one home run in April of 2011. He finished with 16 homers.
Adrian Gonzalez hit one homer. He finished with 27 homers.
Jhonny Peralta hit one homer. He finished with 21 homers.
Aramis Ramirez hit one homer. He finished with 26 homers.
Carlos Gonzalez hit one homer. He finished with 26 homers.
Michael Cuddyer had four RBIs in April of 2011. He finished with 70.
Dustin Pedroia had eight RBIs. He finished with 91 RBIs.
Freddie Freeman had eight RBIs. He finished with 76 RBIs.
Dan Uggla had nine RBIs. He finished the year with 82 RBIs.
Giancarlo Stanton had nine RBIs. He finished the year with 87 RBIs.
Ryan Dempster had a 9.58 ERA in April of 2011. He finished the year at 4.80.
Javier Vazquez had a 6.39 ERA. He finished the year at 3.69.
Yovani Gallardo had a 5.70 ERA. He finished the year at 3.52.
Daniel Hudson had a 5.64 ERA. He finished the year at 3.49.
It’s a looooong season. If you own a proven player, or an elite level talent who struggles out of the gate, it would be wise to think very carefully about whether or not dropping that player will be in your best interest.
SEPARATED AT BIRTH?
Ian Kinsler was signed to a five year deal worth $75 million to remain with the Rangers. That’s a lot of coin, but given how productive that Kinsler has been, you have to think that the Rangers won’t regret it. Even with all the issues he always has staying healthy, he’s appeared in more than 145 games just one time, an “average” Kinsler season has led to a .276 average, 21 homers, 67 RBI, 94 runs and 23 steals even though that same “average” season has only taken up 130 games played. If he can somehow up that number to 145+ games, well, let’s just say everyone will be grinning from ear to ear.
Speaking of second sackers, Brandon Phillips is on the cusp of agreeing to a 6-year, $72.5 million deal to stay with the Reds according to Jim Bowden. Phillips, who is a year older than Kinsler, has been a Red since 2006, and over those six seasons his “average” effort has led to a .280 average, 21 homers, 81 RBI, 87 runs scored and 23 steals. Amazing how close those numbers are to what Kinsler has put up, isn’t it? By the way, Phillips is currently dealing with a hamstring that cramped up Monday night. The team thinks he should be fine, but he could miss a few days.
So did the Reds or the Rangers get the best deal?
By Ray Flowers
By Ricky S on Apr 10, 2012
Ray,
Gallardos ERA last year was 3.52. 3.84 was 2010. That being said, would you trade Gallardo and Delmon Young for Luebke and Alex Gordon? Need hitting much more than pitching
Thanks
By ispensa on Apr 10, 2012
Thanks for the post ray! Just a question:
What’s a large enough sample size to safely dump a player?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 10, 2012
Ispnesa – Good question. As a rule of thumb I’d say 8-10 starts, 150-200 ABs. Of course, that’s not a hard and fast rule. I think you have to wait at least a month though.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 10, 2012
Ricky S – I’d rather have Gordon over Young, but I’m a fan of Young this year. I think Gallardo is a significant step up over Luebke though, so even though you say you need hitting more, I’m inclined to turn this deal down.
By Brian H on Apr 10, 2012
Timely article. Leagues have been dumping Dexter Fowler en masse on the basis of 4 games and a weak spring.
By Joel on Apr 10, 2012
Ray: I’ve been offered Lawrie and Matt Moore for Bautista and a 5th and 7th round pick next year. I can keep lawrie and Matt Moore for one year (one of the two of them). What do you think of the lawrie/Moore package?
By Jerry on Apr 10, 2012
Ray love the deal for Texas. Rumor has it when their top prospect comes up Profar he is going to play 2nd and Kinsler is going to move to LF. that deal is a steal for the Rangers. I have to think this is the end of Hamilton in Texas. I would not sign Hambone to more than 2 year deal.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 10, 2012
Joel – Bautista is locked in after two years of impressive production. Moore/Lawrie offer immense talent and potential. Are you comfortable getting their talent knowing full well that their production is an open question? I don’t like the idea of giving away draft picks, but since this is a keeper league, a 5th rd and 7th round pick are likely more like a 10th and 12th or something, right?
Can do it for the talent, but it’s a gamble since neither has proven anything yet.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 10, 2012
Jerry – Tough to sign Hamilton to a huge deal, agreed. So much uncertainty off the field, and so much trouble staying healthy. Agreed.
By Morris on Apr 10, 2012
I have to agree with not signing Hamilton. I heard Kyle talk about Hamilton on “The Drive” a few months back about he does not care if Hamilton has a beer on his free time etc.
Normally I would agree but in his case when his past has been a mess with addiction his off the field exploits relate directly to his on the field performance it is insane to say that it does not matter. The 2 go hand and hand. He has shown he can’t have one beer he is an addict. Having one drink means it jeopardizes him even staying in the majors. It is pretty simple. I tried calling in to argue that but could not get through.
I would pay Hamilton his money, a monster contract if you will…of one year incentive laden deals.
Love the site Ray
By Ray Flowers on Apr 10, 2012
Morris – Agree with you. If you are an alcoholic, you can’t have even a single drink, ever. I also agree that giving Hamilton that long term deal is crazy. I also think though, some team will step in and give him a big contract if he has a good 2012. Tis the game.
By Jon on Apr 10, 2012
Hey Ray – Justin Turner (with the news of Wright’s injury) or Casilla at MI spot in 16-team mixed? thanks!
By justin on Apr 11, 2012
ray,
i’m finally seeing the light (in one of my leagues anyway) and selling high on kendrys. it’s a 12 team 7×7 with R/HR/RBI/AVG/OPS/SB/XBH & L/S/H/K/ERA/WHIP/QS. i’ve been sitting on his offer of prado/hanson/sale for kendrys/masterson because i know i can get more. the guy has some injured players, is off to a tough start, and REALLY wants kendrys. which do you think is a better get: prado/papelbon/sale or hanson/nathan/sale. i’d offer kendrys/billingsly(>masterson if possible) & throw in peralta/billingsly/my worst player. my SP is a bit thin and my OF would still be braun/hart/maybin w delmon on the bench. the easy route is hanson/nathan, but i’m not in love with hanson because of his health concerns, the QS format, and i believe papelbon has the most value. plus prado, while valuable, becomes a 3B/OF bench option. thoughts?
thank you for your time. it’s the most valuable thing you can give someone.
best,
justin
PS. next year there will be 5 OF spots, as i am the commissioner of the league.
By John on Apr 11, 2012
Hey Ray,
Would you rather have Lucroy or Arencibia going foward?
Thanks for providing some of the best advice in the business!
By Kieth on Apr 11, 2012
Ray,
Would do you think about Danny Duffy”s first start? Worth a flier over someone like Henderson Alvarez or Hochevar?
Thanks
By JDW on Apr 11, 2012
Slow starts and panic are one thing. Wanting to avoid the rollercoaster is a whole ‘nother deal. I drafted Liriano late in many drafts based soley on his spring – probably better than any pitcher in baseball. Strikes out the side in a dominating first before blowing up. I watched the game and he wasn’t getting pounded. But when you look at the Twins offense and their upcoming schedule – forget it. Let someone else take the ride. Liriano’s next starts are Angels, Yankees, Rays, Royals, Mariners, Angels. Sure, those Royals/Mariners matchups look good, but the Royals have a MUCH better offense than people realize with four of their hitters finishing in the top seven or so this spring. And those games only happen if Liriano stays healthy. Even if he dominates in one or a few of his next starts, the potential for a blow-up is not worth the worry. Looking at Liriano’s upcoming starts also makes something very clear – the American league, with the addition of just Albert and Prince, has become a minefield for pitchers. The American league is loaded with bats while most of the top arms on in the other league. AL pitchers may not be worth their equal NL counterparts this year.
By Icehole on Apr 11, 2012
12tm 5×5
Dump your beloved Aubrey Huff for David Murphy?
By Kent on Apr 11, 2012
Is Justin Maxwell worth picking up? I’m in a 12 team NL only 4×4 keeper league. I know his BA hovers around the Mendoza line so that may be a killer but he appears to have some upside in other categories if he gets decent AB’s in Houston. I could move my roster around so that I would be dumping a dirt cheap Lombardozzi and slide Maxwell into my UT slot. Does this make sense or am I just thinking too much here?
By Joe M on Apr 11, 2012
Hey Ray
Couldnt agree more with this post. Pitchers are barely with their first start and batters basically had one series of play, some players haven’t even played a home opener yet. At this pace Texeira, Bautista, and Uggla will have 20 hr’s, 40 rbi’s, and 40 runs COMBINED. Waiting for the one or 2 in my leagues to drop someone or start offering studs for cheap.
Question:
Is it too early to totally punt saves? I only have one closer with Balfour.
(I have 5 setup men, Jensen, Romo, Chapman, Salas, and venters), We have 6 SP slots and 4 RP slots.
I really need another starter. Got an offer for C. Sale for Balfour.. Thoughts?
By The Sportsguy on Apr 11, 2012
Baker out for the season, Hendricks should stick…don’t they still need a 5th SP in Minnesota? Swarzak/ Duensing?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
Jon – I’d go with Casilla for your MI option.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
Justin – Hanson should be OK. Understand your reluctance, and his mph has been down so far, but he’s still a dynamite option in my mind. still, I’d take prado side if you need offense. If it’s all about pitching, take the Papelbon side. Be careful not to overestimate Sale this season – still a lot to prove in transition from pen to rotation.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
John – Nothing has changed over the last 10 days for me. JPA is the catcher I’d choose.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
Kieth – Duffy has a nice arm, but his ratios could be a problem. Young and unproven, his up and downess – if that is a word – does concern me a bit.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
JDW -Liriano has been hit or miss for years. When he’s on he dominates, otherwise… not good. Hopefully he can put it all together and be more consistent this year than he has in the past couple of seasons.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
Icehole – You can move on from Huff in favor of Murphy. David has a nice skill set, always a double-double type of threat, but question with him is playing time. If he gets 500 ABs I’m really interested. If he gets his normal 420, not so much. Right now he is playing a lot. If he keeps it up, very intriguing.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
Kent – In an NL only league, Maxwell figures only to play against lefties, so his playing time is probably going to be limited. I like Maxwell’s potential, but we’re still talking about a guy who isn’t likely to play more than twice a week.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
Joe M – Yep — all this crazy pace talk is certainly out of control at times.
I would not punt saves mid stream. I’d also never punt it on purpose either – http://baseballguys.com/2012/03/12/punting-categories-a-good-idea/
If you want to do it, given your lack of save guys right now, you can make the move for Sale, but I’d like to get a guy who has a bit of a track record in the bigs as a starter if I was moving a saves guy.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 11, 2012
The Sportsguy – Yeah, tough news with Baker going down for the year.
Twins: Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn, Hendricks, Marquis ???
By Blue Corpse on Apr 12, 2012
I picked up Mariano Rivera on the waiver wire after he was dropped for a blown save….it’s a weekly H2H….