Mailbag: April 12, 2012
April 12th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
*Note: The following article is filled with plenty of questions that might seem knee jerk and laughable to you. Trust me though, these aren’t the only questions I’ve received along these lines. It’s like there is an epidemic of itchy trigger fingers in the world of fantasy baseball right now. Before proceeding to read my answers to today’s questions, I’d suggest that all of you take a moment to read Panic In the Streets.
A guy dropped Josh Johnson 2nite…
– @Gregor21
It’s been two starts covering 9.2 innings. If you were going to draft Johnson in the first place how on earth could you bail on him after two starts – when he’s healthy? The key with Johnson will be his health. If he can take the ball 30 times he’ll be a strong option – period. The only real issue with Johnson is his track record of ill health. The guy owns a 3.05 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and an 8.23 K/9 mark for his career. I’ll trust 735 innings over a poor 9.2 to start the 2012 season, won’t you?
Who is next in line for saves if Joe Nathan tanks?
– @Steverland
I’ll admit to understanding this question, though I’m still not a fan. Closers can lose their jobs much quicker than starters, and with roughly a third of all the big league teams making some type of change in the 9th inning versus what their plans were two months ago, I totally understand the trepidation anyone would have if they see one of their guys struggling in the 9th inning. At the same time, we’re talking about four innings with Nathan. F-O-U-R. In his first three of his outings of the year he allowed one hit, no walks, and one run. Sure he gave up three runs in his last outing, but he’s still sporting five Ks and no walks through four innings. Hell, Mariano Rivera gave up two runs while recording only a single out in his first trip to the hill this season. The Rangers manager, Ron Washington, said that he will give Nathan Thursday off to collect himself, but he also emphatically stated that Nathan is still his closer. Believe him. If I had to chose a backup option, I’d be thinking Mike Adams.
Should I drop Kenley Jansen for Fernando Rodney? No other current closers available on wire.
– @TheSchwan
This question is prompted by two things. (1) The inequitable way we reward relievers in the the fantasy game. (2) Worrying too much about right now and not enough about the next 150 games.
(1) We reward saves in the fantasy game. Therefore, any time a change is made in the 9th inning a virtual stampede occurs. No one pays any attention to the relievers and tries to decide if the pitcher is any good. All we care about is getting the saves. It’s why I’ve long championed changing saves to Solds in the fantasy game (Solds = saves+holds). If we used Solds we’d be more worried about rostering the better pitcher than we are about being consumed with adding the guy who is currently holding down the role of closer.
(2) Through a week of the season, Rodney has three saves and has looked solid whereas Jansen has done the same thing – albeit without the saves. As a result, Rodney’s current value in the fantasy game is higher despite the fact that he isn’t a better pitcher. In my book, especially this early in a season where I’m not desperate to chase saves, I’m going skills over role. That means I want Jansen. Think I’m crazy do you? Let’s compare some career numbers with the two hurlers.
Jansen: 15.23 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 3.54 K/BB, 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .151 BAA
Rodney: 8.20 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 1.69 K/BB, 4.26 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .242 BAA
Are you seeing what I’m seeing? Jansen betters Rodney in every category, and five of the six by a massive amount. You can roster Rodney and hope he some doesn’t revert the pitcher he has always been, but my money is on Joe Maddon realizing, sooner rather than later, that the last time Rodney was a better than average big league hurler was 2007.
I can’t keep Stephen Strasburg at the end of this year. Would you trade him for Tim Lincecum straight up?
– @SubtleStatement
This is the most reasonable question I received in the last day about Lincecum who went out and laid another egg in his second start of the season. I’m utterly amazed at how quickly people are considering bailing on Lincecum. Consider the following. (1) Lincecum has made 4-straight All-Star teams. (2) Lincecum has two two Cy Young Awards in four seasons. (3) Lincecum has never finished outside the top-10 in Cy Young Voting in four full seasons. (4) He’s the only pitcher in baseball with at least 220 Ks each of the past four seasons. No other pitcher has more than two 220 K seasons the past four years (Jon Lester and Felix Hernandez). (5) Even with his struggles this year he has 10 Ks in just 7.2 innings, and with only three walks still has a 3.33 K/BB ratio which is better than his career mark of 2.98. (6) Lincecum has done this before – struggled mightily I mean. In 2010 he went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in the month of August. He rebounded to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.
I would do this deal. It’s quite possible that Strasburg will better The Freak in both ERA and WHIP, but with the potential of 50 or more innings from Lincecum, remember the Nationals have set an innings pitched limit with Strasburg of 160, I’d take the Giants ace.
How patient should one be with Brandon Belt situation?
– @jfeiger
Great question. I’ve been on record for months now telling everyone that I didn’t see how Belt was going to get 500 at-bats this season. Most didn’t listen, everyone wants to believe that the next big thing will be the next big thing right away, but alas, the Belt situation is playing out as I expected it would. The Giants have an overpaid run producer in Aubrey Huff. Since he’s also a team leader, he figures to play almost every day, either at first or in the outfield. The Giants traded for Melky Cabrera who will play every day. They also added Angel Pagan to add a speed element that the team is sorely lacking. If all three of those guys are in the outfield than Belt can play first base. However, I’ve totally left out the Giants best defensive outfielder who just so happened to pop two long balls Wednesday in Nate Schierholtz. Obviously, this situation is going to leave one guy out in the cold every day. Given that Belt hit just .225 last year, and that he’s started out 1-for-11 this year, it appears that he is already losing ground to the other “proven” players. I’m fully aware that Belt is “the future” and that he has been given only 198 at-bats to this point of his career, but unless he turns things on quickly, or one of the other four is injured, Belt may struggle for at-bats in the early going.
What do you think about Aramis Ramirez? Buy-low trade candidate?
– @Fury5701
Remember that article I referred to at the top of the piece entitled Panic in the Streets? If you didn’t give it a read then now is the time to scroll back up to the top of the page to read it because it will point out something about Aramis Ramirez that should help you to easily answer this question.
To track who has been the best at putting up 5×5 fantasy numbers in the early going make sure to visit Fleaflicker.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
Tags: Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Belt, Fernando Rodney, Joe Nathan, Josh Johnson, Kenley Jansen, Stephen Drew, Tim Linceum
By Joe M on Apr 12, 2012
Q1- I have Josh Johnson in both my leagues and will not even think of dropping unless he has a season ending injury. I wish people would panic in my league like this. I actually just picked up someones “trash” with Miguel Montero since I needed a backup/upgrade to Suzuki
Q2- I actually like Mike Adams.
Q3 – Love keeping a few Jensen types on my roster. I happen to be a huge fan of some middlemen. Hey, Chapman gave me better numbers in week one than almost any starter (2 wins, 10 k’s, 0 Runs, 0 walks, 2 hits)
I actually love your idea of solds, we play with both saves and holds and I don’t think one person in my league actually looks at the combination. They either see the holds stat or the saves stat and nothing beyond. Definitely something I can use to my advantage.
Q4- A tough call
Q5- I drafted Belt in the 34th Round last year in a keeper league. I see huge potential, but I absolutely agree that playing time will have to be earned with big numbers when he gets the opportunities which he hasnt done… YET
Q6- I think its time for me to start making trade offers in my league for players that struggled in their first 2 at bats.
Do you by any chance have any write-ups on rookies? we have a 37 man roster 3 year keeper league, I always draft some rookies in those last few rounds (I had Belt, Ackley and Hosmer last year)
This year I went with Teheran, Machado, Skaggs, and Rizzo. You think any of these will make any kind of impact within the next 2 seasons? You got any articles about these types of guys?
By Carl on Apr 12, 2012
Ray,
For a deep league, i’m looking to add OF depth. Can you rank these 4 guys and which do you think can make the biggest impact this year. 15 team NFBC league.
Damon, Dirks, Juan Rivera, Bernadina….
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
JOE M – Thanks for the well thought out reply.
As for rookies, there is a tab at the top that will take you to some reports on them, but it’s mostly for in season pick ups. My 2012 BBGUYS DRAFT GUIDE had an article giving my thoughts on more than 25 of the top rookies for the season.
http://baseballguys.com/category/2012-fantasy-draft-guide/
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
Carl – None of those guys figure to offer much, even in a 15 tm mixed lg.
Damon isn’t a lock to play every day for the Indians. Ditto Bernadina an Dirks for their clubs.
I’d add Rivera who is currently hot and seeing a lot of at bats in the middle of the Dodgers lineup. Know though that he isn’t likely to get 500 at-bats, nor is he going to hit .300 with 20 homers. He’s a moderate option that will have to keep hitting to hold off Jerry Sands.
By Joe M on Apr 12, 2012
I actually got your draft guide (I’m testimonial #1
Will be referring back to it now to see the rookies (hey, its 50 pages, couldn’t catch it all).
Also trying to learn all your equations you had in there, will try to use samples through this season to help with my draft next year. Some really great stuff and a great education on how to really determine a players true value based on real numbers and not some guys projection or opinion.
By JDW on Apr 12, 2012
Ray, I’m noticing alot – and I mean A LOT – of tiny strike zones watching both live games on television and following MLB “Gameday” strike zone grids on-line. I’m talking down the middle, well inside the strike zone no calls. Methinks there is something afoot in baseball this year. At least early on strike zones around the league have been very small. Perhaps baseball isn’t so keen on that whole “year of the pitcher” thing. Some really egregious no-calls even in just the twenty or so hours of live games I’ve watched so far.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
Joe M – I’ll hit on rookies as they come up through the year, so look for more of that as we go.
Glad you’ve found the Draft Guide so useful. Makes me happy to hear your trying to apply some of that stuff as well.
By Jon on Apr 12, 2012
Hey Ray – I know you’re down on Pagan. Who’d you drop him for in 10-team 6×6 w/ OPS and AVG. I look to be iffy in SBs, but all things considered: Cozart, Schafer, De Aza, Bourjos, Yunel? Yunel doesn’t excite me…
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
Jon – Pagan is barely rosterable in a 10 tm lg.
Cozart = expectations too high.
Schaefer = a younger Pagan.
De Aza = tough to play him and schaefer or pagan at same time. Like De Aza though.
Yunel = He’ll be fine.
By Nick on Apr 12, 2012
I’m desperate for outfield depth – 5OF positions in a 12 team roto league.
I offered Cargo and Matt Joyce for Chris Young, Josh Willingham and J.D. Martinez. Did I offer too much?
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
Nick – You’re giving up the only elite player in the group. IMO that is way too much to give up for the trio of players you are getting back.
By Jon on Apr 12, 2012
Sounds like De Aza or Yunel, then. Though Espinosa and Bourjos also available. I’m guessing one of the MIs is your pick between those 4.
By Bobby on Apr 12, 2012
Hello Ray.
Keep the pictures of those hotties coming.
I am in a 10 team 5×5 league we start 5 or 6 S.P and 1 or 2 R.P. 7 TOTAL. Can i win with this staff or come in the top 3?
C.C, I Kennedy,Mad Bum, Josh Johnson,B Beachy,V Worley,C Zambrano,A Pettitte
R.p H Bell, J Hanrahan
Thank you
By Steve on Apr 12, 2012
Hi Ray. This is Steve in Arlington, MA. Would u drop Doumit or Morel (both on bench) for Damon in AL only 5×5 league? Damon would be added to OF crew of ellsbury, grandy, d young, d murphy, and reddick. I can only start 4 but can squeeze a 5th but that would require sitting kendrys or dun. Do u think it’s worth adding Damon? If so, is bidding 13 of 100 fa money too much? Thanks for the opinion.
By Mark on Apr 12, 2012
Hi Ray, bought your draft guide the past few years and it’s been a great supplement to my fantasy drafts! thanks! Non-keeper 5×5 roto league, i’ve been offered 1b Eric Hosmer and 2b Howie Kendrick for RP Joel Hanrahan and 2b Dan Uggla. I can give up a closer, ok in that category however my BEST 1b is Marc Reynolds . Is this a fair deal? Thanks!
By Ricky S on Apr 12, 2012
I know its a challenge trade, but in a 5×5 would you trade Delmon Young and Ike Davis for Josh Willingham and Edwin Encarnacion? I think I’m going to make the trade to get the 2nd 2
By Josh on Apr 12, 2012
7 offensive cats with added OBP and total bases.
Jeff Francoeur or Melky Cabrera?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 13, 2012
Bobby – Pretty ladies, nothing wrong with that, right?
In 10 teamer, I do not like Zambrano much at all. Pettitte = total waste. He’s nothing more than lg average, and I think my final rankings had him in the 120′s — clearly a number way beyond how many hurlers are on rosters in your league. JJohnson is likely key. Can he stay healthy? Solid duo at closer.
You could finish top-3, but there are questions with everyone past your top3 SPs.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 13, 2012
Steve – In an AL only lg, it’s really about playing time. As you saw in the piece, I dont see how Damon will be able to play everyday. Just dont see where it will happen. You can add him of course, he is productive and always seems to find a way to play. I would not drop Doumit. Can’t be anyone on waivers at C who could come close to replacing him, so drop Morel if you have to, especially since it sounds like you have CI covered.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 13, 2012
Mark – Glad you enjoyed the draft guide. Hosmer and Uggla cancel each other out, with Hosmer having a bit more to give if he runs. Kendrick is off to a slow start, but he’s a strong .290 hitter with at least 10/10, possible 15/15, coming down the pipe. Big fan of Hanrahan here, but if you can cover the closer spot, I say do this deal to get two young, strong performers on offense.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 13, 2012
Ricky S – Ike Davis has me very, very worried. Poor performance, all this talk about Valley Fever. I have no problem moving him. Delmon Young I’m much higher on, 100 RBI seems legit poss since he’s hitting behind Cabrera/Fielder. Willingham is a health risk. If healthy like last year showed, he’s a 25, 85 type of guy. However, he’s also been a 120 games a season guy the past four years. EE is off to a blazing start, but he’s never been able to maintain any consistency.
Fair deal. I’d take a shot on JW and EE.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 13, 2012
Josh – Both are likely to fall back from last season. Both are poor options in OBP lgs. Both aren’t likely to post TB totals to match last year. I’d take Frenchie, but it’s really a toss up, very, very close.