The Fantasy Beat: Week 1 & Beyond
April 14th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss cheap draft day hitters that are off to a great start on the young season. They will tell you what which of these guys to believe in, and which guys to wait on.
J.D. Martinez, Raul Ibanez, Jordan Schafer, David Freese, Omar Infante, Zack Cozart and Brett Lawrie (who has stunk so far, though it’s still early of course).
Tags: Brett Lawrie, Chris Heisey, David Freese, J.D. Martinez, J.P. Arencebia, Jordan Schafer, Omar Infante, Raul Ibanez, Zack Cozart
By JDW on Apr 14, 2012
Unimpressed with King Felix early on.
Yeah, 19/4 K/BB and a 1.13 WHIP and 3.80ERA with one win. But that’s in THREE starts against…THE OAKLAND – FREAKIN’ – ATHLETICS!
Sure, chalk it up to their STOUT lineup seeing him three times in three weeks. But King Felix, if he is indeed a King, should be killing these kids.
His velocity is down – again! And just wait until he starts facing the Rangers and Angels. Last year his ERA against the AL East was pathetic – 7.20 at Baltimore, 5.31 @ Boston, 4.95 @ Yankees, 10.50 against the mighty Blue Jays. No way this guy should have been, what, fifth off draft boards for starting pitching? Meh. If he didn’t have the benefit of pitching against the A’s twenty times a year, he’d be Randy Wolf. And this year, he failed to dominate the A’s. Trade time for King Felix. Get a nice second or third round bat for someown desperate for pitching.
By JoeM on Apr 14, 2012
Hey ray
H2h league
Week ends tomorrow, currently tied and need the win, tied in sb’s and up by 6 in runs (I have Hr and RBI locked up).. Should I sit Holliday for denard span for some extra speed? Stats go week to week so if Holliday hits 4 home runs tomorrow it means nothing to me (aside for the runs which I’m pretty comfy with a 6 run lead)..
Also
I’m out in era and whip for the week and only have a 5k lead. I have Moore going tomorrow, he has volquez and porcello going for him. Figured Id pickup a starter for the day.. Just curious who u think has the highest k probability for tommorow?
Cahill @ Col
Detwiller vs Cin
Drabek vs Bal
Doubront vs TB
Happ @ Mia
Strictly k’s
(would love to work the probablitys out with your draft kit tools, but away for the weekend and having a difficult time doing this on my phone)
By shmmrname on Apr 15, 2012
JoeM – I think Cahill has some K-upside, especially if you’re not overly worried about a possible shelling in COL.
Ray – Nice work, quickly becoming a favorite site to visit.
Angels – #FreeMikeTrout
By Alan on Apr 15, 2012
Ray,
Would you drop any of these RP Marmol, Jansen, Marshall, H.Santiago to pick up Santiago Casilla? I’d appreciate your thoughts.
Thanks
By Nick on Apr 15, 2012
Do you prefer Billingsley or Harrison? Thanks.
By JoeM on Apr 15, 2012
Hey shm
Not worried about era, already lost that for the week (josh Johnson, wainwright, shields, and greinke made sure of that
Agree, find myself checking this site as often as any other fantasy related site, which is pretty much daily.
By brad on Apr 15, 2012
now that revere was sent to the minors will he be called back soon or is he a drop. I drafted him for speed and need the speed. I can sit with him on reserve if you think they will call him back soon or is it not going to happen?
By Mark on Apr 15, 2012
Ray- Panic is setting in early this year… Tuesday a guy dropped Y. Gallardo, D. Stubbs, and Joe Nathan. I picked up Gallardo and Stubbs. Today people dropped Alex Rios and C. Rasmus. I wanted to upgrade my bench (I have Braun, McCutchen, and Holiday as OFs) so which 2 would you go with between Rios, Stubbs, Rasmus, and Matt Joyce? BTW, shallow 10 team mixed if you could not tell.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
JDW – I share some concern with King Felix, but I think it’s too early to bail. If you can get someone to give you full value, go ahead and move him, but I’m not taking .80 cents on the dollar for him. And lets not get crazy. Comparing him to Randy Wolf is crazy talk. Felix’s skills are dominating in comparison to Wolf’s. In fact, when his velocity is up, few can match his skills which is why he’s a top-10 arm.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
JoeM – Sorry I missed this question until late Sunday. I had a lot of family things I had to attend to this weekend and didn’t get to read it until it was too late to help you out.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Shmmrname – Thanks for the support. Glad you like what you are seeing. All I ask is that you tell a friend.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Alan – I drop none of the arms you have for Casilla. First off, I’m not sure he is going to be the full time arm. Secondly, the skills on all the others are just as good, or better, and all are locked into the 9th but Jansen, and he may have the best skills of the whole group.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Nick – Billingsley over Harrison. Better lg. Better park. Better track record.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Brad – How many teams in your lg ? If 15, hold to Revere. If 12 maybe, but don’t like it much. If 10, let him go. I think you’re probably best served moving on and getting someone who is playing.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Mark – You are in a lg with crazy, off their rocker, people. At the same time, this is EXACTLY why playing a 10 team mixed lg is a waste.
I’d add, in order: Rios, Stubbs, Joyce, Rasmus.
By BSchlitz on Apr 15, 2012
Ray,
I love your work…I love listening to you on the drive. Thanks for what you do.
I have sb concerns in a NL 5X5 H2H league.
My lineup is:
C. Montero,
1B Ike CI Jesus guzman
2B Scutaro MI Lowrie
SS Alex Gonzo
3B Freese
OF Upton, Bruce, CB Young, Hart, Ludwick, Harper(bench)
I have been offered Victorino straight up for Hart. Based on my lineup what are your thoughts on this trade?
By Ryan on Apr 15, 2012
Ray, NL only 5X5
1) Need to start 1 of the following 3 guys this week (going with Casilla in the other pitching spot I am questionable about since I need some saves): Wainwright, Vogelsong and Norris. Which one would you go with for this week only?
2) Thinking about waive Juan Francisco to pick up Matt Carpenter. Who would you go with?
Thanks,
Ryan
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
BSchlitz – Thanks for the support my friend. Always great to hear people enjoy my efforts.
Do the deal. Victorino is a better all around option than Hart. You have some major issues in batting avg on your squad, so take a shot with Shane.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 15, 2012
Ryan – Wano struggling, and Vogelsong just solid. Give me Norris. Carpenter or Francisco? I think you can add Carpenter at the expense of Francisco since he’s so hot right now, but its a real toss up since we all know that Chipper J can’t stay healthy in ATL
By Chrissy on Apr 15, 2012
Hello Ray!
I’m in a 12 team keeper Roto league
My question is I have Mesoraco and Montero and we play 2- Catchers is this a trade you would consider doing, trading Mesoraco, D. Ortiz and V.Wells for Y.Molina, C.Crawford and M.Bumgarner? My outfield consists of Stanton, Braun, Markakis,De Aza, Rios B.J.Upton when he returns and Victorino. Or should I try and deal Stanton? I am concerned about the knee.Thanks Ray!
By JoeM on Apr 15, 2012
Its cool, hope all is well with the family.
Actually ended up picking up Casilla to go with romo who I already had. Didn’t have anyone else to drop for another starter, ended up winning by 1 k without the pickup and dee gordons 2sb’s and texeira’s sb won me the steals.. I won the week 6-5-1. not a great win stats wise, but a bet (non monetary) was involved so needed the win.
By Rusty on Apr 15, 2012
Hi Ray,
Got offered Freese and Soriano for Lawrie, thought I’d consult the guru. Should I go for it? I’d be replacing Matt Joyce or Dexter Fowler in the outfield. 12 team H2H.
By Ron on Apr 15, 2012
Use waiver claim on Gavin Floyd? Need pitching and the entire player pool is available. We do not use FABB so waiver claim is only good for dropped players.
12 Team H2H 30 man rosters
My Starters are Brandon McCarthy, Jamie Garcia, Anibal Sanchez, Bud Norris, Tim Stauffer (On Bench) Doug Fister (On DL) As you can see I need some SP help, someone consistent enough.
My pen is Velvarde, Putz, Clippard, Romo, Bell, Street, Aceves, Jim Johnson, and Storen (On my DL)
By wesley on Apr 16, 2012
Whats up Ray, 12 team league h2h somebody dropped neil walker. Would you drop kelly johnson or daniel murphy for him.
thanks
By jon on Apr 16, 2012
Hey Ray – do you still have Bourjous, Span and De Aza in the same order you did in the guide? Does AVG & OPS league change your mind?
By MN Mike on Apr 16, 2012
Ray-
Thanks for all your hard work.
I am in 12 team H2H league with holds as a category. Currently the only guy I have to pick up a Hold this year is Koji Uehara. What is the deal with him? He never seems to get to pitch. Has his role changed? Is he someone to keep using?
Also, all the obvious guys for holds (i.e. Clippard, Adams, Venters, etc.) and most of the established setup guys are on rosters already. Who might me some names I should consider adding to my squad to add holds? Could you please list a few “deeper” options that I look for to get holds?
Thanks again!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
Chrissy – I’d do the deal. Molina is a certain upgrade on Mesoraco. Crawford is a better option moving forward than Wells. I’d rather have MadBum than Ortiz who is stuck in the UT spot.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
Rusty – Soriano is solid/stable. He should give you what he posted last year, maybe some more. Not exciting though getting 25-80-80 from out OF ain’t bad at all. Freese is a strong hitter as we’ve seen. However he isn’t a power bat, and he is injured yet again. I’m really nervous about that guy since I don’t have any idea if he can play 150 games. I’d bet against it actually.
Joyce and Folwer should be fine in the OF for your club.
You can do the deal, no one would blame you, but given your current OF depth, I don’t think you have to.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
Ron – Wow, that’s not a very good looking staff amigo. Talent yes, but you dont have a #1 or #2 SP. Floyd is basically another solid arm you could add, but he won’t separate himself from the guys you already have.
I dont think you can drop any of your RPs at the moment, so I dont know who you would move on from. The only guy I could see dropping is Stauffer, especially since he isn’t near 100% healthy right now.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
Jon -I don’t think, barring injury, that you should be changing rankings of players when we’re talking about 10 games. You can move them around a wee bit, but I’m not going to support getting all crazy. As such, I don’t think your trio has changed much. Bourjos down a bit, De Aza and Span up a bit to close the gap with all three. In an OPS lg Span an De Aza are tough plays.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
Wesley – Your league most not use middle infielders, eh? Did you get a copy of my Draft Guide? As I was telling Jon, I don’t think 10 games changes things barring something major. There’s nothing major going on here. I’d drop Murphy an add Walker, especially since Murphy’s value is diminished in leagues without CI’s and MI’s.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
MN Mike – The Rangers have been trying to deal Uehara for about 4 months now. Odd given his performance and the fact that he isn’t very expensive. Not really sure why they aren’t using him more – makes little sense to me. Clearly his role isn’t what it should be, though if he’s dealt, I’d have to think it would be.
No way for me to know who to suggest you add. I can’t see your waiver-wire so there’s no way to know who would be worth targeting. If you want to toss out some names, then I could comment.
By CB on Apr 16, 2012
Hey Ray-
I am in a 12 team 5×5 head to head league. I am currently in 1st place, but have lost in SB and saves both weeks. I am pretty deep in the outfield with holliday, Bautista, Cuddyer, ichiro, and swisher. Unfortunately, I was unable to get any closers on draft day. I do have potential closers in Sergio romo and Greg holland. Would you make a trade of Holliday for Mariano Rivera and Carl Crawford or just stick with what I’ve got?
Thanks for all of the hard work.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
CB – If you need saves help, Mo Rivera is obviously a wonderful target. I’m a big Crawford fan as you know, and with his return likely 2 weeks away, now is a great time to also add him. Paying the price of Matt Holliday is a big one, but given your situation, I say roll the dice and do the deal.
By MN Mike on Apr 16, 2012
Thanks for the quick reply regarding Uehara and RPs to target for holds. Below are some of the RPs available as Free Agents. Would you drop Uehara or Melacon for any of these guys? Also is it time to let go of Brandon Belt? Thanks.
M. Guerrier
S. Cishek
F. Morales
F. Salas
W. Lopez
S. LeCure
K. Medlan
etc.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
MN Mike – Tough to just give up on belt, but not much value in 12 teamer if they dont play him.
I’d add Lopez over Uehara, but its close. Give it a shot.
By Ron on Apr 16, 2012
Made a post on the other site about picking up Gavin Floyd. I actually have an open roster spot so I would not have to drop anyone. I was using the spot as a streaming spot so I could keep Stauffer.
Our league is 40ip but for some reason to detour streaming they put in hits and BB as negative counting stats so I went against the grain to try to load up on Saves ERA Whip and have lesser counting stats. Nobody caught on and I might have exploited the system.
A little off topic we also added 6 moves per match up to detour streaming. I am lobbying for taking out negative counting stats bb and hits as what it really does is hurts people with elite pitching because everybody even good pitchers walk and give up hits. The 6 moves per matchup should be enough to stop streaming. Adding negative counting stats further devalues Pitching.
I did by the guide and loved it. I lobbied for Solds but managers wanted to uses saves and holds as 2 separate cats
By Fenz on Apr 16, 2012
Ray, which of these early underperformers do you expect to underperform for the whole year – Holliday, Raburn, Morales – and which one of these youngsters do you think will provide the most upside this year – Goldschmidt, Seager, De Aza and Pomeranz?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 16, 2012
Fenz – Holliday will be fine. Raburn will be solid, though lose work to Inge. Morales is the one I worry about. That’s why he wasn’t in my top-18 at 1B.
Goldschmidt has the most upside as the power and run production could be pretty impressive.