Quick Starting Pitchers
April 18th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Most starting pitchers have only taken the mound two or three times. But as we all know in the fantasy game, it’s never too early to try an improve a fantasy squad. Given that line of thought, I decided to discuss some of the under the radar types that are off to strong starts for their respective clubs. I’ll assume the following for the sake of the discussion: we’re in a 12 team mixed league that starts nine pitchers on a weekly basis. There are certainly scenarios in this setup where every pitcher on this list might have some use, but that doesn’t mean any of them should be making 30 starts for you this season in a 12 team setup.
Blake Beavan, Mariners: 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
Beavan hasn’t beat himself in two starts issuing only one free pass, and that will be key for a guy who had only 42 strikeouts last year in 97 innings. Beavan pitches to contact and was successful doing that last year with a 4.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 15 starts. The problem is, that level of production is all you have a right to expect from the Mariners tall righty – and that just doesn’t move the needle.
Kevin Correia, Pirates: 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
In two starts he has been the quintessential ‘let the batters put the ball in play and let my defense work for me’ type. Through 12 innings he’s only walked three batters while striking out just five. However, he’s also pitched in two solid pitcher’s barns in Los Angeles and San Francisco, and that’s likely part of the reason for his success. Also, don’t fool yourself, Correia simply isn’t a very good hurler. For his career, and we’re over 900-innings now, he’s posted a 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.23 K/9 and 1.86 K/BB. Simply put, he’s as blah as blah gets though it should be noted that in his last 16 starts on the road his ERA is 2.45 while his WHIP is 1.09.
Matt Harrison, Rangers: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
The Twins and the White Sox did little against Harrison who has picked right up from where he was last season when he won 14 games with a 3.89 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Harrison has a heavy ball that leads to a lot of grounders, but he’s not an elite ground ball hurler (46 percent of batted balls). Given that he doesn’t miss many bats and that he had a career best 6.11 K/9 mark last season, his margin for error isn’t exactly large. With wins being variable, this isn’t a skill set that necessarily points to long term fantasy success, but he should be pretty solid.
Rick Porcello, Tigers: 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
A first round selection in 2007, Porcello has the stuff to be a major asset to the Tigers. The Rays and White Sox witnessed that first hand as Rick went seven innings against both club while issuing just single free pass in the process. Poised to produce a breakout, this ground ball ace still isn’t an overly intriguing fantasy option (52 percent of batted balls end up rolling through the infield grass). Why is that? The lack of strikeouts of course. I target starters with a K/9 mark of at least six. Through 91 big league starts Porcello has been deficient with a 4.84 mark. Again, real world success is certainly possible, but in 12 team mixed leagues Porcello is more of a match up option than someone you should be rolling out there every week.
Joe Saunders, D’backs: 1-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
A two-start pitcher this week, Saunders followed up seven shutout innings against the Padres by allowing one run over seven innings against the Pirates Monday. Saunders is as blah as it gets. Just take a look at his numbers over 163 career starts: 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.03 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, 1.27 GB/FB. Purely a matchup option, I’d hope that Saunders is only being used when he’s facing the Pirates or Padres, or when he’s starting twice in a week.
Jake Westbrook, Cardinals: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Like so many others on this list, Westbrook is a better real world pitcher than he is a fantasy weapon. Westbrook lasted seven innings in each of his first two starts, and his ratios are wonderful. Still, he has only four punchouts in the two games while he’s issued five free passes. Westbrook will win games, and he’s looked pretty strong since spring, but the guys has a career ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.39 and his career best for Ks is 128. I’ll pass.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Blake Beavan, Jake Westbrook, Joe Saunders, Kevin Correia, Matt Harrison, Rick Porcello
By Brian H on Apr 18, 2012
Every guy you mentioned has a weak K rate…how about some of the guys off to good starts who have a good K rate? Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Vance Worley, Bud Norris?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 18, 2012
Brian – I mentioned the guys I did for the very reason you hinted at – no one is expecting them to have success.
As for the guys you mentioned.
Norris was in my top-45 for SPs before the season.
Samardzija I’ve talked about on the radio, and I drafted him in NL LABR.
Worley should be a solid depth arm.
Jackson – http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/03/player-profile-edwin-jackson/
By Joe on Apr 18, 2012
Hey Ray,
What do you think about Adam LaRoche, will he be a solid option all year or just a hot start? Our league charges per move and i’d hate to add him just to ride the bench.
By Cardinal Bob on Apr 18, 2012
Ray,
I am in an 8×8 roto league (we count holds, HRA and QS). I like to carry 8 SPs and I like my top 7. However, my 8th slot is a choice between Vogelsong, Hughes, AJ Burnett and Nova. How would you rank them?
By B-dog on Apr 18, 2012
Hey Ray,
I need a Chris Young replacement in a 5×5 NL only h2h league. Please rank the following…bogusevic, justin maxwell, schierholtz, eric young and wiggington.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 18, 2012
Joe – LaRoche is who he is. He’s a .270-25-85 machine. Don’t expect him to keep up his current pace, but he could reach 100 RBI if things play out just right.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 18, 2012
Cardinal Bob – Hughes is awful. Just continuing what I said about him in December:
http://baseballguys.com/2011/12/27/player-profile-phil-hughes/
Vogelsong is solid.
I’d take the shot on Burnett though – http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/20/player-profile-a-j-burnett/
By Ray Flowers on Apr 18, 2012
B-Dog: Tough break with Young being out.
https://twitter.com/#!/SteveGilbertMLB/status/192750013405872128
I’d go Schierholtz who should see his playing time up tick if you need an OF. If overall, Wigginton is a solid add with his flexibility.
By Alan on Apr 18, 2012
Ray,
I’m in a 12 team 5×5 roto league. I’m offering J. Beckett and Rios for Cliff Lee. Am I giving up too much or is this a fair deal?
By Jarrod on Apr 18, 2012
Jordan Zimmerman or Brandon Beachy. H2H league so I need a guy who won’t be shut down in September. Thanks
By Nick on Apr 19, 2012
Could you rank these pitchers for a 16 team, H2H league? Thanks.
Correia, Kendrick, B. Chen, Moyer, Pelfrey, Pomeranz, T. Hunter
By Fenz on Apr 19, 2012
Ray, always good stuff on your site. Daily check for me. My problem is an anemic offense and a trade averse 12-team points league, so I am resorting to revolving door of FAs. I am considering Schierholtz but what are your thoughts about picking up one of Alonso, L. Cain or Altuve and releasing one of Seager, Goldschmidt or Trumbo (I have better options at 1B and 3B)? And what’s the latest on plans for Nolan Arenado?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2012
Alan – Beckett and Rios for Cliff Lee probably isn’t going to be enough. The reason is Lee is off to an amazing start, and Rios is struggling so badly> I wouldn’t be at all shocked if this duo was the better fantasy play for 2012, but Lee is clearly the lock down, elite guy of the group, and the best target.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2012
Jarrod – Neither Zimmerman or Beachy is expected to be shut down in September. I had both guys within shouting distance of each other in my draft guide with Zimmerman slightly ahead. I’d still go in that way, though I love Beachy’s arm.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2012
Nick – Lots of junk here.
Chen, Pomeranz, Pelfrey, Correia, Hunter, Kendrick, Moyer
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2012
Fenz – Glad you enjoy the site.
If you’re only in a 12 team lg, in order to count on someone they have to be playing every day. Schierholtz is not playing everyday.
Arenado — I’m saying June call up for him, but not certain.
Alonso – does he qualify in the OF? He shouldn’t since he played less than 20 games there last year. Not a better option than your other 1Bs
Cain is the best option to add. When healthy, he should play every day and bring a decent all around game.
By jb(not JB) on Apr 19, 2012
Hey Ray, Ogando or Adams? I’m sure you’ve been asked this many times.
thanks,
By Joe M on Apr 19, 2012
While on the pitchers subject, I got a potential offer for Latos.
He wants Ryan Roberts (I have him as my MI) and I would use Cozart if I give him up and I would have no backup. Should I push the deal?
I need another starter and I believe Latos is much better than the way he’s been pitching and a possible real god buy low candidate.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2012
jb(not JB) – What is your goal? If you are thinking about getting some cheap saves at some point, I think you go Adams. He might also be the slightly more skilled hurler, but it’s awful close. Ogando is likely to throw more innings, and he is a RP/SP if that matters in your league setup.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2012
Joem M – My thoughts on Mat Latos can be read here :http://baseballguys.com/2012/04/19/mailbag-april-19-2012/
I don’t have huge faith in either Roberts or Cozart, but I’d lean toward Roberts at this point.
By CB on Apr 19, 2012
Ray-
I’m in need of saves and stolen bases in a 5×5 head to head league. The other day I asked you a question about a Holliday for Rivera and Crawford trade the, but the other guy backed out. However, i have been offered a different trade where i would get Michael bourn, joe Nathan, and neftali Feliz for jon Lester and jonny venters.. My other SP’s are wainwright, Romero, Cueto, drabek, Bud Norris, and anibel Sanchez . Would you do the trade?
Also, I would be dropping either Justin masterson or Juan Cruz.
Thanks Again
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2012
CB – Bourn/Nathan/Feliz for Lester/Venters/Cruz
Bourn is an elite base thief.
Nathan will have more saves than venters+cruz.
Feliz is no Lester, but he’s solid.
Problem is your, staff is pretty week if you deal Lester – he’s your best arm. It’s up to you, but your SPs are doing to be pretty rough if you do this, even if in a vacuum I think you “win.”
By Dustin on Apr 21, 2012
Ray,
I have Kuroda and really not sure what to do with him. Would you drop him and pick up Harrison, Hochevar , or Milone? Feel like I should maybe keep him but at the same time don’t want to miss an opportunity with these other SP’s?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 21, 2012
Dustin – I’d keep Kuroda over the three hurlers you mentioned. Kuroda should be solid this year, though he may have trouble matching the ratios he posted in the NL the past few years with the Dodgers.