Fact of the Day: April 25th
April 25th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Since the start of last season, that’s roughly 180 games worth of major league action, how shocking is it to consider that Darwin Barney, Darwin Barney, has been nearly as effective a fantasy performer as Rickie Weeks? I’m not huffing paint either. Take a look at the numbers:
Barney: .278-5-50-75-9
Weeks: .259-23-55-85-10
Weeks has certainly provided more value thanks to that massive difference in home runs, but look at those numbers again.
Weeks has only five more RBI than Barney.
Weeks has scored only 10 more runs than Barney.
Weeks has only one more steal than Barney.
Weeks has hit .019 points lower than Barney.
One guy was a top-10 selection at the position on draft day while the other was lucky if he was a top-20 option at second base. Clearly those preseason rankings were based only on the potential upside of Weeks and not based in the reality of either fellas production.
By Ray Flowers
By jon on Apr 25, 2012
Hi ray – both Walker and Altuve useful MI in 10-tm w AVG and OPS? I could use a little speed, but mostly looking for best overall option this year. has Altuve impressed you? I’m with you on Walker coming around to
Be fine, but just wondering!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 25, 2012
Jon – Alltuve has impressed me, how could he not? At the same time, Walker is still the guy I’d be looking at long term, esp. in a 10 tm lg where you dont want a bunch of guys in your lineup that aren’t run producers like Altuve.
Coming into today… Walker hitting .333 with 5 RBI in 9 games.
By Bobby on Apr 25, 2012
Hello Ray.
I just want to thank you for working your ass off and being a numbers guy. I get on the site daily. I enjoy your show on my hour commute home on the Drive on Sirius Radio. You always answer everyone amazing. I also purchased the Draft guide awesome. The women you have been putting on the site top shelf. When do the videos return?
Thank You for your dedication.
Bobby.
By Joe M on Apr 25, 2012
Hey Ray
Random thought
Figured you’re a stats guy so you might know if and where I can find this.
I’m curious what the overall statistics are for pinch hitters not by individuals, an overall combined number (preferably by year)
Ie. How many pinch hit at bats were there last year and what was the stat results.
Aside from pitchers being pinch hit for, I’m just really curious to know if overall pinch hitting pays off, since most times people are pinch hit for match-up purposes and not because its the better hitter but rather the higher probability for that situation.
By Joe M on Apr 25, 2012
Not a fan of Ricky Weeks at all, I never drafted him, but even if he performs to his minimum he would still be the better player, add in his potential upside and he’s a few tiers better. I might be wrong, just my opinion
By Nick on Apr 25, 2012
I know you warned us about Hector Santiago… I listen to all of your advice… but I messed up here.
Thornton, Reed, Crain? Who is your favorite for the long haul?
Thanks.
By JDW on Apr 25, 2012
Ray, another interesting stat (though an early and small size)
LET JESUS CATCH!
When Montero catches:
18ABs 8Hits 2HRs 3Runs 7RBI 2Ks 1BB
When Montero DHs
49ABs 10Hits 0HRs 1Run 4RBI 9Ks 1BB
By JDW on Apr 25, 2012
Those Barney/Weeks numbers are crazy!!!!
By Craig D on Apr 25, 2012
Ray,
You always preach skills over role, but it seems like quiet a few teams are leaving the more dominant pitcher in the set up role.
For example: Romo in SF, Jensen in LA, Chapman in CIN, Reed in CHW, Clippard in WAS. To a lesser extent: Holland in KC(DL), Pestano in CLE, dare I say Robertson in NY! Kidding
Often, the game hinges MORE in the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning. That’s the only way I can explain it.
What say you
By Eric on Apr 25, 2012
I see Pettite is two starts from joining the rotation. Would you drop any of these guys and in what order for Pettite. Duffy, Neise, Floyd or J Parker
By Ricky S on Apr 25, 2012
12 Team league, 5×5 Roto, 14 starting hitters but 40 man rosters…………
I just traded my Hunter Pence and Cody Ross (trying to sell high) for Adrian Gonzalez and Denard Span.
Have Smoak or Daniel Murphy or Luke Scott or Cozart to fill Cody Ross’s spot until one of Ryan Howard/Mike Morse or Allen Craig come back…
That being said, do you like the deal for me?
By JDW on Apr 25, 2012
Ricky S, you even have to ask?
If you got Adrian for both Pence and Ross you won the trade. Span is icing and probably droppable no matter how well he’s hitting in that crappy offense. You won, kid! BIG! 
By Ricky S on Apr 25, 2012
Pence and Adrian aren’t that far off……….Pence’s average should be decently close, he’ll definitely steal more bases, and is faster so may score some more runs. I obviously like Adrian better, and I know I liked the trade, but I’m not sure I “won big”. Crawford is seeing Dr. James Andrews now, so Cody Ross is looking more and more like he could have a permanent spot
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Bobby – Thanks for the support my friend, always nice to hear.
I’ve been super busy, and have a new computer I’m dealing with, but the videos will return at some point, hopefully early May.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Joe M – You’re looking for pinch hitting info I see… hopefully this is what you were hoping to find.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/year/2011/type/expanded-2
From the looks of it, really doesn’t pay off much unless you’re replacing a pitcher.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Joe M – I never said Weeks was less skilled or a worse option than Barney. I was merely pointing out that with all Weeks’ up and down play, and his CONSTANT injuries, that his production falls well short of expectations.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Nick – Don’t worry, most people don’t listen to me. j/k
Crain is hurt, and out of the mix. It’s Thornton and Reed if/when Santiago loses his job. Thornton has more experience so I’d lean his way, but with the way that Reed is pitching right now, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was the choice, especially since he is thought of as the “closer of the future” by many… and he’s right handed.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Craig D – I do preach skills over role. And I always say “sooner or later, skills win out.” That might mean 2 weeks, 2 months, a year… there is no way to know in the bullpen how players are going to be used.
Should Romo, Reed, Jansen be closing, yes.
However, as you correctly point out, sometimes the 7/8 innings are more important to teams winning than having some flunky get three outs in the 9th when their team is up by 3 runs.
It’s why I’ve championed the idea of SOLDS (saves+holds). This idea that saves are all that matters really blows and takes so much skill out of the game.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Eric – In a mixed lg. Pettitte is nothing more than your final SP. He’s been away from the game, is old, four of his last five years his ERA has been above 4.00 and only once in those five years was his WHIP under 1.38. He’s as boring as they come. I wouldn’t add him over any of your current guys though Duffy is dealing with health issues – https://twitter.com/#!/Royals_Report/status/195515852190261248
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Ricky S and JDW – I’d rather have AGone than Pence. Ross, as you know I just don’t see where he plays when the OF in BOS is healthy, and I’m a big fan of Span. I agree with JDW – you got the better end of the deal here.
By Steve on Apr 26, 2012
Ray,
Couldn’t sell Pineda at 50 cents to the dollar once the news came out yesterday. So, I swapped him out and picked up Strop. What is up with Jimmy Johnson? Also, what are your thoughts on Ellsbury? I offered him even up for Alex Gordon and Shin-Soo Choo and was turned down by both owners. Did I reach too high? What are your thoughts on Trumbo for Ellsbury? Too low? If you think so, then I’ll sit and hold out on Ellsbury, but if you think it is worth it, I’ll try for Trumbo. The owner has Lind, Beltre, Youk manning the corners and Trumbo is on his bench. His OF is Gordon, Luke Scott, Wells, Span, Revere, and Gardner. We start 4 OF spots and 1 UT. Other than Trumbo, what about Jarrod Parker? I do need some K’s. Also, what are your thoughts on Hutchinson and Hultzen? Thanks for the time and info, Ray.
Steve in Arlington, MA
By Joe M on Apr 26, 2012
“By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Joe M – You’re looking for pinch hitting info I see… hopefully this is what you were hoping to find.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/year/2011/type/expanded-2
From the looks of it, really doesn’t pay off much unless you’re replacing a pitcher.”
EXACTLY what I was looking for.
Absolutely does not pay off, now im curious why managers are so eager to pinch hit for people late in the games based on matchups, especially when you have someone whose playing all game all stretched out and pull them for someone whose been sitting on the bench all game and is not even necessarily the better hitter overall.
As far as Rickie Weeks goes, I would definitely rather take from the studs left in the pool when Weeks normally gets drafted and settle with Barney as my last pick and weeks injury risk makes him what I believe to be a bad draft pick, but you can make this same argument for a lot of picks that I think go too early.
For example. I would rather Yadier Molina late in the draft rather than Brian McCann early. Compare their 2011 numbers and aside for a 10 homerun difference Yadier pretty much outperformed him in the rest.
But I guess thats the point of this write-up, ADP and talent does not necessarily mean the better fantasy player/pick
By Joe M on Apr 26, 2012
Jensen will soon be closer.. I can smell the saves now
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Steve – They think Jim Johnson has the flu, but they are running further tests to determine.
Ellsbury for either one of those guys isn’t an awful deal for the other guys. Still, Ells will likely miss a third of the season, so his value isn’t on par with potential 20/20 guys right now. Trumbo is solid, but he’s no .300 hitter, an he’s still not playing every day.
Hutchinson/Hultzen have great futures, and we could see both in the second half, but it’s always hard depending on rookies.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Joe M – You got it my friend.
By Steve on Apr 26, 2012
Thanks, Ray. I was contemplating Ells/Kendrys for Gordon/Trumbo, but then if they guy rejected Gordo for Ells straight-up, I doubt the diff btn Kendrys and Trumbo is tempting enough. Also was thinking about Ells for Span who would help with SBs and AVG, but nothing else. At least with Ells, he can help in 4 and maybe all 5 categories. Is Span selling Ells too low? My hunch is yes, but I’d like to hear from the Expert. Thanks, Ray!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Steve – Span for Ellsbury — I’d still keep the Sox OF, but I do like Span.