Mailbag: April 26, 2012
April 26th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
I have Neil Walker at 2b & Jemile Weeks at MI. Omar Infante still available on the waiver-wire. Do I grab Omar over NW or JW?
– @DadofReilly
Walker is hitting only .224 with no homers and five RBI through 17 games, a dreadful start for a guy who came into the season with a fair amount of hype. To be fair we’re only talking about 58 at-bats, and Walker does have 12 hits in his last 10 games, but disappointing is certainly a word I would use to describe a guy coming off a 83 RBI, 76 run campaign who has started like this. Weeks has been just as bad hitting a mere .200 with a pathetic .253 OBP, but he does have two homers, three steals and nine runs scored, so he hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster (Week’s brother, Rickie, has been pretty unimpressive since the start of last season. For more see Fact of the Day, April 25thBaseballGuys.com). At the same time, I always felt that Jemile was getting too much love in fantasy circles heading into the 2012 season.
Infante continues to act like he thinks he is Robinson Cano. Through a mere 13 games Infante is hitting .313 with five home runs. Infante is a .275 career hitter, and he hit .305 in 2009 and .321 in 2010, so it’s possible he could bat .300 this season, though I still consider it unlikely. As for the power, there is no, none, nada, chance that the power display will continue. This is not a Jose Bautista breakout we are witnessing. Infante has one season, and he started playing in the majors in 2002, with more than nine homers (he hit 16 back in 2004). Per 162 games in his career, a career that has lasted long enough for him to accrue over 3,200 big league at-bats, Infante has averaged 10 homers. He’s already halfway to that average — in 13 games thanks to a four times increase in his HR/F rate (it’s currently at 20.8 percent versus a career mark of 5.2 percent).
Given how hot he has been, there are very few fantasy baseball leagues out there in which Infante should be on waivers considering he has been the third most productive second base eligible player per contest according to Fleaflicker. That said, he’s got no shot at ll of sustaining his unbelievable start. If you wanted to move on from either of your current players I would suggest dropping Walker because his skill set more closely matches that of Infante (Weeks has game changing speed). I’m not saying I’d rather have Infante for the course of the season over Walker, but there is no denying that right now Infante is the more appealing option.
Drop Bud Norris for Chad Billingsley or Chris Capuano? Or keep the faith?
– @edcolby
Norris is being bailed on by a lot of people who see a 5.84 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. You should look beyond those numbers to see the following. (1) His 8.03 K/9 rate is impressive. (2) His 2.92 BB/9 mark is a batter below his career level. (3) His 0.97 GB/FB ratio is just off his career rate of 1.02. Still, his HR/FB ratio is way up leading to 1.82 homers per nine innings. That number will not continue (just look at his mark the past two seasons – 1.05 and 1.16). The truth of the matter is that Norris has pitched way better than his fantasy ratios would suggest.
Billingsley came out on fire, and it appears that he is well on his way to putting behind him that down 2011 campaign (11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 152 Ks). The biggest key for Billingsley in the early going, the main reason he has a 3.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through four starts, is the fact that he just isn’t beating himself. A guy who walks about 3.9 batters per nine innings for his career, that mark currently sits at 1.90. Guys just don’t drop two batters off their BB/9 mark after being at another level for five years, but it’s still encouraging to see him throwing more strikes. At the same time, Billingsley’s current 7.23 K/9 mark would actually be a six year low, so maybe he’s changed his approach a wee bit. It’s also a pretty good bet that Chad won’t be able to keep batters to a .195 average (.249 for his career) once the innings start to pile up.
Capuano is slowly starting to get some love in the fantasy game. A huge injury risk since the virtually the day he was drafted, here are Capuano’s innings pitched totals the past five years: 150, zero, zero, 66 and 186. Yeah, he’s one risky cat to own. Capuano does have solid K potential (7.83 per nine this year, 8.13 last season), pitches in a solid pitchers park in Los Angeles (he also gets to make starts in pitcher havens such as San Diego and San Francisco), and he’s a cheap option that is likely still on many a waiver-wire even with his solid start (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 Ks in 23 IP).
I’m taking Billingsley knowing full well that he has no chance of keeping up his current pace. So why suggest adding the Dodgers’ righty then? Consistency (something Capuano certainly can’t offer). Billingsley takes the ball every five days and gives his team a chance to win more times than not. Norris has a “bigger” arm, but he’s also inconsistent and pitches for a team that might struggle to provide him with enough run support for him to reach double-digits in victories.
Should I drop Kelly Johnson to sign Jose Altuve?
– @theYankeeHajny
Johnson hit .222 last year and has started out this year with a .231 average through 17 games so I get the concern. At the same time, Johnson has hit 20 homers with 75 runs scored and 13 steals each of the past two years. Those aren’t fantastic numbers but they are still numbers that only one second sacker have reached each of the past two years. A guy like that, even with a potential batting average deficiency, shouldn’t be given up on lightly (it should be pointed out that Johnson does have a .259 career average and that he hit .284 as recently as 2010).
Altuve has been hot with the twig hitting .377 through 69 at-bats. However, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. First, Altuve isn’t going to hit the ball into the seats (three homers in 290 career at-bats), which also will likely lead to a poor RBI total for an every week starter in most mixed leagues. Second, though speedy, he’s only had one effort of 30 steals and he has 11 in 75 big league games. He could easily steal 20 bases this year, he already has four, but his not going to light up the steals category. Third, and I hate to break it to you all, but he’s not a great hitter. Having completely skipped Triple-A, Altuve has only 290 at-bats above Double-A, and that concerns me a bit given that he isn’t exactly the most patient hitter in the world, and that could drain his batting average a bit when he gets into a funk. It’s also a pretty fair guess that his current .431 BABIP will likely regress by a .100 or so points, and that will cause his batting average to dip accordingly.
Give me Johnson over the slap it and run Altuve, but make sure you have other hitters on your club who can cover the poor average you are likely to receive from Johnson.
I trade Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz for Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. Do it?
– @bearnvegas
Everyone, let’s stop the panic with Pujols. Some facts. In every season of his career he’s finished the year hitting at least .299 with 34 homers, 99 RBI and 99 runs scored. Right now he’s hitting .222-0-4-6. Assuming he reaches his “worst” totals, numbers he has reached in each of the past 11 seasons, that means from this point forward that he is going to blast 34 homer with 94 RBI and 93 runs scored. And those numbers would merely equal his career worsts. As for the batting average, assuming 574 at-bats (his seasonal average the first nine years), Pujols would hit .311 the rest of the season. Despite the slow start, I think all of those targets are fair which leads me to the position that I would still prefer Pujols to AGone (.303-2-13-9).
Cruz can be a beast, but he’s always seemingly hurt (the last three seasons he has averaged just 120 games a season which dings his value substantially). He’s also hit under .265 in two of his last three seasons. There are also questions about just how much running he will be allowed to do given his continued issues with his wheels (he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 143 games after stealing 37 bases in 2009-10). Hanley is hitting just .238, and coming off shoulder surgery, but he qualifies at shortstop and second base, and that’s huge. He’s also gone deep four times while stealing four bases, a pace that would lead to a 35/35 season if he were to maintain it (obviously that’s doubtful).
Get Pujols and HanRam. AGone and Cruz should not be dealt to anyone lightly, but this is a pretty impressive return.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Bud Norris, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, Hanley Ramirez, Jemile Weeks, Jose Altuve, Kelly Johnson, Neil Walker, Nelson Cruz, Omar Infante
By Tim on Apr 26, 2012
Good stuff as usual Ray. What’s your take on the bullpen situations in CHI-A, LA-N and Hou?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Tim – My guesses.
CHI A – It will be Reed or Thornton soon.
LAD – Guerra looking spotty. Jansen always had better skills anyway.
HOU- Its Myers or bust with Carpenter/Lopez/Lyon in reserve.
By Jeremy on Apr 26, 2012
Ray – Thanks for the info, I had the same Bud Norris concerns. I have Brett Lawrie at 3B in a shallow 10 team weekly league. I drafted him early (I never draft early based on potential but I’m really drinking the Lawrie Kool-Aid.) My question is, would you move him to the bench until he gets cranking? Encarnacion and Aviles are available on the wire. Plug one in there for now or keep my original faith in Lawrie? Thx!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Jeremy – In a 10 tm lg, with so many strong options always on the wire, it’s always tempting to plug in hotter players. I can’t tell someone not to do this because, frankly, I never do 10 tm lgs cause they are too shallow. Since they are so shallow, some of the advice I give about patience doesn’t have to be 100 percent adhered to. Hard to say Aviles shouldn’t be active at the moment.
By Tim on Apr 26, 2012
After this afternoon, have to follow-up my last question and ask about Mia and LAA as well. Think Bell gets longer leash with contract?
By Jeremy on Apr 26, 2012
Thanks Ray, I know you hate 10-team leagues. I’m in 2 other leagues of 12. But I’ve been in this league for 12 years and there’s no way I’m bailing on those guys. Thanks for the advice.
By B-dog on Apr 26, 2012
Heath Bell threw 47 or so pitches today in another blown save. He won’t be pitching tomorrow…who gets the call tomorrow if a save situation arises? Cishek? Dunn if a lefty is up?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
Tim – Walden and Bell both have plenty of job security. Plus, it’s still only a handful of innings we’re talking about.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2012
B-Dog: Dunn or Cishek are the likely fall back options in place of Bell due to pitch count. Could always be Mujica too – depending on matchup.
By B-dog on Apr 26, 2012
In an NL only league I have Rauch. Who would you rather roster? Rauch, Cishek, or Dunn? Thank you
By Robert on Apr 26, 2012
Hey Ray…I have Ogando for nothing more than ERA/WHIP/K help…would you drop him for Addison Reed at this point? Or should I roster both and drop Kubel (back of the bench)?
By Jon on Apr 26, 2012
Someone In my league just dropped Matt Moore and I am trying to decide if I should use my # 1 waiver priority on him. It’s a 10 team 5×5 but uses k/9 instead of Ks. My current staff is: Strasburg, Gallardo, Josh Johnson, Lester, Morrow, and Wandy Rodriguez . Also considering grabbing him by dropping De Aza, Schaffer or Soriano and trying to swing a trade for an OF upgrade with a SP like Johnson or Gallardo. Do you think using the priority is worth the trouble on a player struggling as he has over the past few games considering he is still a rookie?
By Nick on Apr 26, 2012
i was offered Ryan Howard in a salary cap league. The guy needs cap relief since he has Howard at $17. I have tons of space. Should I take a chance on him?
Thanks.
By Icehole on Apr 27, 2012
Another owner is shopping for a closer and I have 3 bad ones.
Take Vernon Wells for
Matt Capps
Carlos Marmol
or
Frank Francisco
Thoughts?
By John on Apr 27, 2012
ray
would u drop pestano for addy reed? who do u think will get the closers job first?
By Dennis on Apr 27, 2012
Hi Ray,
I am playing in a daily league for the first time. 10 team standard set up. We have a limit of 200 starts for our pitchers but no other limits. My question is more one of strategy. It might even make for a column.
Right now, I am carrying just 9 pitchers (Haren, Shields, Beachy, Kennedy, Anibel Sanchez and Brandon Morrow and 3 relievers, along with Sergio Sanchez in my DL spot). I am trying to maximize at bats by carrying 3 hitters in my bench spots. I know at some point I will need to add some pitchers so I reach the maximum. Is this a solid strategy for the first half of the season? I figure I will need about 20-30 starts from other pitchers (assuming some missed time from injuries, slumps, and the occasional poor matchup) but for now I would rather rely on these 6 trustworthy guys than stream in and lose the at bats by dropping hitters. There will be plenty of decent pitching options later in the year.
Am I being reasonable in my approach?
Thanks as always,
Dennis
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
Robert – Kubel is a tough guy to toss away, but if your lg is shallow you could. I’d rather move on from Ogando to Reed and hope you catch lightning in a bottle with the reliever from CHI.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
B-Dog – I don’t think that Bell is going to lose his job with the Marlins, not unless he is hurt. That means Rauch is probably closer to save chances than either of the other two arms, even if he isn’t that great a pitcher.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
Jon – If your lg uses K/9 that leaguemate of yours is a moron. Use your waiver priority to add Matt Moore. It’s only a 10 tm lg, so letting Soriano go is fine.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
Nick – Howard is likely a month away from action. I wouldn’t count on him being “Howard” until the second half. All depends on what you give up to get him.
By Mike on Apr 27, 2012
Ray- What’s your thoughts on Milone? Worth a roster spot in a mixed 12 team? Or rather have Zambrano?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
Icehole – I’d keep all three closers over Wells. I think Wells should be productive this year, but a 20-80 OF isn’t worth as much as a potential 30 save guy.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
John – You’re playing reliever roulette. If you want to move from Pestano to Reed I’m OK with that. Reed certainly is closer to saves than Pestano.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
Dennis – I’ve never heard of a lg with 200 start maximum. Usually its an IP cap if anything.
If the average starter makes 30 starts, you will be talking about 20 starts being needed if you’re rolling out there six SPs.
Not really sure what your question is though. I like your arms, think augmenting them is a nice way to go.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2012
Mike – My thoughts on Tommy Milone can he see here – http://baseballguys.com/2012/04/19/mailbag-april-19-2012/
You can add him over Zambrano if you want. Both are basically depth plays though in 12 tm lgs.
By Jon on Apr 28, 2012
Ray,
I asked you the Matt Moore question above, and you suggested dropping Soriano and using the #1 waiver priority for him. Things got a tad more complicated with the call up of Bryce Harper. Some poor guy in my league gave up on him and dropped him the day before his call up, and so he is also on waivers for the same day. Trying to decide if I should pick up Harper to possibly improve an OF that consists of Nelson Cruz, Hart, De Aza, Duda, Schafer, Soriano and an injured Ellsbury or pick up Moore to improve a rotation of Strasburg, Lester, Gallardo, J. Johnson, Morrow, and Wandy Rodriguez. What are your thoughts on which way to go?
Thanks,
J
By CB on Apr 28, 2012
Ray-
With Jeter starting off strong and Jose Reyes having a slow start, who do you look like more for the rest of the season?
Thanks
By CB on Apr 28, 2012
I meant for the question to be who do you like more for the rest of the season? Not who do you look like. Haha
Thanks again
By Ray Flowers on Apr 28, 2012
Jon – On Harper see – https://twitter.com/#!/BaseballGuys/status/196276753407287296
I think Moore has a better chance of being a full season contributor than Harper. However, your OF is in more need of a boost than your staff, so go Harper.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 28, 2012
CB – It’s not a 20 game season, it’s 162 games. Reyes is still the guy you want. Plus, Jeter has to slow, Reyes has to heat up, so if you could trade Jeter to get Reyes at this point, that would be ideal.
By Robert on Apr 30, 2012
Hey Ray…looking for some backup SS help while Alexei Ramirez works his way out of his slow start. Alex Gonzalez, Marco Scutaro (2b, SS), Jed Lowrie (3b, SS), and Robert Andino (2b, 3b, SS) are all out in the FA pool. Which one would you prefer? And would you drop Cody Ross, Jordan Schafer, or Nolan Reimold to make room?
By Dan on Apr 30, 2012
Ray,
I like my pitching staff (Haren, Garza, Luebke, Marcum), but it’s too small. I filled up with reliever for good ratios (Myers, Hanrahan, Betancourt, Adams, Venters, Reed, Storen on DL). Someone just dropped Dan Hudson. Is he worth dropping any of these guys for?
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Robert – He’s not been great, but I’d go with Scutaro as your backup. At same time, I don’t know if dropping any of those OFs would be a great move. If dropping one, Nolan R.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Dan – Hudson shouldnt be on waivers. If I was you, I’d drop Venters, though of course it’s a tough drop.