Tuesday Tips
May 1st, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Whether your fantasy baseball league is an AL-only, NL-only, mixed league or keeper league, there’s something for you in today’s piece. Promise.
Dylan Bundy, the Orioles uber-prospect who was chosen #4 overall in last years draft leading to him being named the #10 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, has started out his professional career as if he has no intention of spending much time in the minors. Through five starts in A-Ball he’s walked two batters in 17 innings while he has allowed one hit. That’s three base runners in 17 innings leading to a 0.18 WHIP. He’s also fanned 25 batters and not allowed a run. Time to move him up a level already Orioles?
Zack Cozart is hitting a solid .271 for the season, but that’s likely a disappointment to his owners since he was hitting .342 ten games into the season. Like I said all preseason, and into the season when he was tearing it up, Cozart isn’t at a point in his development when he should be expected to perform at all-star levels. After his recent downturn in production at the dish Cozart is on pace to hit .271 with seven homers, 30 RBI and seven steals. Hate to tell you I told you so but…
Anyone out there realize that Adrian Gonzalez hit .271 with two homers an a .737 OPS in April? As I wrote three weeks ago in Panic In The Streets, AGone hit only one homer last April before finishing the year with 27 bombs so it’s certainly not panic time. However, he did hit .314 with a .836 OPS in a better first stanza to the season last year. For his career his April has led to a .288 batting average and .856 OPS with the OPS being the second lowest of any month from April through September. If you’ve read my stuff you know my thoughts on Gonzalez, but the guy has hit 29 homers in 181 games as a Red Sox. Are you ready to finally admit that I was right back in January of last year when I warned that Adrian may not produce huge homer totals playing half his games at Fenway Park? See ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez.
Billy Hamilton of the Reds might be the fastest man in the sport. Rated the 48th best prospect in the game coming into the 2012 season by Baseball America, Hamilton stole 103 bases last year as a 20 year old in Single-A ball. This season he’s off to a stupendous, and that isn’t a term I throw around lightly, pace with the bat as he’s hit .398 through 23 games at High-A ball. But what about the speed you say? Try this on for size. In those 23 games Hamilton has stolen 29 bases to give him 132 steals in his last 158 games. He isn’t likely to appear in the bigs this season, but dynasty leaguers you had better be aware of a guy who plays shortstop who owns the skills of Vince Coleman.
At this point, meaning when I wrote this piece, there are two greatly differing reports on the health of Evan Longoria. One report suggests he has a hamstring or knee situation that may or may not result in him being placed on the DL. The other reports suggests that it’s a hamstring issue that could keep him out for 6-8 weeks. As a Longoria owner I almost upchucked my breakfast this morning when I heard the 6-8 week line of though. Let’s hope that the report was premature and that Longoria will be back in a relatively short period of time cause losing Longo for two months would be a devastating blow to his fantasy squads.
Jed Lowrie is hitting .297 and here we go again. I’m getting questions about people in mixed leagues who really want to add him to the mix. I’ll repeat the same thing I’ve been saying for two years – he’s not that good. For his career his slash line is completely big league average at .256/.328/.409. He’s also stolen only four bases in his career and per 140 games he’s a 12 homer bat. Yippee doodle. It should also be noted that though Lowrie has hit .304 in the month of April in his career that his May-October batting average is .243.
Stephen Strasburg has been as dominating as any pitcher in baseball with a 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 34 Ks in 32 innings to start the 2012 season. The most amazing part of his effort though may be this: Strasburg has allowed 22 hits in his 32 innings, and the breakdown is 20 singles, two doubles, zero triples and zero home runs. That’s two extra base hits in 32 innings folks. Wow.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Billy Hamilton, Dylan Bundy, Evan Longoria, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Cozart
By Fish on May 1, 2012
Ray, in my 9 team nl only auction keeper I had a great draft but my only closer option was casilla who i got for $8. I have deep starting pitching . Do I deal a solid starter (t. Hudson, nicasio, wandy) for Heath bell or just sit back and wait? Also have brothers, romo and cashner.
By Erik on May 1, 2012
Hi Ray,
I am a Longoria owner and I am crapping my pants with the 6-8 week report too! If that is the case, I am looking at a replacement as he sits of the DL. Players available in my league are Chipper Jones, Pedro Alvarez or Chris Davis. Who would you choose?
Thank you!
By Järpen Fäviken on May 1, 2012
Hi Ray.
Love this blog and love your tweets. But you never answer my tweets: what gives?
Reynolds or LaRoche? Danks or Dempster? None keeper; 12 teams.
JF
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Jarpen – I answer as many tweets as I can get to. With 10,000+ followers it’s just not possible to get to them all.
LaRoche is the safer all around play.
Dempster for the Ks, though still bullish on Danks.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Erik – Chris Davis would be my choice out of that Motley Crew. Can’t trust Chipper to stay healthy, and Alvarez has heated up but has a long way to go to prove something.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Fish – I’d deal Nicasio for Bell if I could. He’ll figure things out and eventually right the ship. He is the only closer in baseball with at least 40 saves each of the past three years.
By Andy on May 1, 2012
Ray – I’m in a 12 team H2H points league. Is it time to drop Clay Bucholtz or Erv Santana?
I know Santana has had April struggles in the past but neither of these two look comfortable on the bump.
Available SP’s:
Bedard
Bass
Lowe
Gee
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Andy – I wouldn’t have ever draft CB. I’ve been on the anti Clay train for two years now. I’d hold Ervin Santana who has been unlucky with HR ball.
Drop CB add Bedard.
By Donna on May 1, 2012
Ray- Allen Craig vs LaHair in a 10 team H2H?
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Donna – Neither. In a 10 tm, both will end up disappointing. For now, go with the hot guy – LaHair
By Jared on May 1, 2012
Ray, I have to agree with Kyle. That pic does look like an abduction.
Thank you for all the advice!
By Sean on May 1, 2012
Ray- which Davis for the long term, Ike or Chris? Thanks
By Tom on May 1, 2012
Ray, I’m in a 10 team AL only auction keeper league. Just received an offer of F. Rodney at $20 for V. Martinez at $3. Is V Mart too much to give up? Thanks as always for your advice.
By Nathan on May 1, 2012
Ray,
How much more from Pedro Alvarez do people need to see before he becomes addable?
By Craig D on May 1, 2012
Ray –
May 1st and Dee Gordon has more HR’s than Albert Pujols. Is this the sign of the apocolypse?
By wesley on May 1, 2012
Im in a deep 12 team 30 roster weekly ROTO league.
I just lost Longoria and hes my only 3B
Somebody offered me Ryan zimmerman and ervin santana for Heyward and Billingsley
Whats you think ?
Thanks Ray
By Nick on May 1, 2012
Deep 16 team, h2h
Trout and Altuve for B.J. Upton… which side do you prefer?
Thanks
By El burro on May 1, 2012
Hi Ray:
After painfully watching another horrible Ubaldo start, I think I’ve seen enough. I’m considering an outright drop in my 14 team mixed league, non keeper, 6×6 with holds and ops…
Can you talk me off the ledge? Usually, not a big advocate of AL pitching to begin with nor bailing on a SP this early in the season, but coupled with the fact his velocity is down, walks are up doesnt make me feel warm and cozy. Think hes walked like 19 batters already, telling me Command is shoddy at best. I think his best days may be behind him. Granted the IF didn’t do him any favors tonight (nor did the firework smoke) but he’s still elevating his fastball and not getting enough bite on his slider, in my opinion.
Replacement options include:
Capuano – whose k/9 rate I’m liking (along with his home park)
Stauffer – who I would likely spot start at home (he’s on a rehab assignment and seems to be getting close)
Zambrano – don’t really trust at all, but like the way Miami is playing as a pitchers park
Any of those options strike your fancy? Leaning Capuano. Just wanted your take…
Rest of my staff includes:
SP – Gio, Garza, Scherzer, Minor, Detwiler, Volquez, Norris, Duffy, Bauer,
RP – Chapman, Jansen, Romo, Burnett, O’flaherty
Gracias…
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Sean – After seeing how they have looked to this point, I’m gonna suggest Chris over Ike. I had them pretty close in my preseason rankings anyway.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Tom – I there is no way I would ever recommend keeping Rodney at $20. He could save 32 games this year, I still wouldn’t go that high on him. The only way you make this deal is if the addition of Rodney allows you to win the lg. Even then, still don’t love it cause your giving up a star and certainly not getting one back.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Nathan – I’ve owned Pedro Alvarez in multiple 12 team lgs since draft day. He shouldn’t be on waivers in my mind.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Craig D – Its a warning, but if Gordon ends up with more homers than Pujols than the Mayans were certainly right with their prediction of the age changing in 2012.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Wesley – Zimmerman is injured. Would love to add him of course, but I don’t like adding Zimmerman to Longoria. Too much injury. I don’t have a huge prb with the deal, but the “hope” is that he will be back on Sunday. Doesn’t do you any good to add a guy that won’t help this week and maybe not next week either.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Nick – Give me Upton. If a keep lg you could argue for Altuve/Trout, but in a redraft I want the elite player.
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
El Burro – I would have a hard time supporting dropping Ubaldo in a 14 tm lg. There are all kinds of issues – walks and loss of mph – but he can’t be this bad.
How are Capuano, Stauffer and Zambrano avail in your lg? Do you have lie 2 person benches? If you can add Capuano you can do it. He’s certainly pitching light years better and he should be a solid option all year long – provided he can stay healthy.
By El burro on May 2, 2012
Thx, ray
I’m gonna heed your advice and take my finger off the drop button for Jimenez. I’ll bench and watch another few starts, but I’m beyond nervous.
I feel the same on Capuano,, plus love NL West pitchers in general (away from coors)
We start 13 bats, 12 arms in my 14 team mixed league. 29 man rosters with only 4 bench spots total, no DL slot in my league. I have mike Morse, Ryan Zimmerman, Bauer all on bench with the other slot occupied by Max Scherzer, cause I can’t start him right now either….
Based on my roster above, who would you drop for Capuano? Someone like Burnett or O’flaherty? Liking Detwiler and Duffy, so I’m hesitant to drop either of them…
Thx
By jon on May 2, 2012
Hi Ray – I’m 5th OF hunting in a 10-teamer w/ OPS in addition to AVG.
How would you rank Craig, Boesch and Parra? I’ve only got room for one. and I have to start him all the time because of pitching situation.
And you expect Aybar to turn it around and be Top-10 SS like last year?
thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 2, 2012
El Burro – O’Flaherty is pretty useless unless your league has holds. Yours does, so its hard to say just chuck him to the curb. I’d rather have Capuano than Duffy, and though I’m not saying dump Detwiler, it should be noted that when CM Wang returns it’s not clear if Ross will remain in the rotation.
By Ray Flowers on May 2, 2012
Jon – I didn’t have Aybar in my top-10 at SS coming into the season – he was my #11 shortstop.
For OF, Boesch, Craig, Parra for the ROTW.
If you are talking about adding a guy right now, Parra is a nice add cause of the fact he’s playing everyday and stealing bases while CY is out.
Honestly though, none are fantastic 5th OF options in just a 10 team lg.
By El burro on May 2, 2012
Thx, Ray…
Yes, we have holds. I ditched Burnett for the Capuano add- E’Oflahertry was good to me last year and think he’s serviceable. Ill gladly go to war with Chapman, Jansen, Romo and E’Of in the mix every week.
Yes, noted on Detwiler. Like the makeup, pedigree and Wang really doesn’t make me do jumping jacks. Should Detwiler get optioned, I could make the move for Stauffer or something like that.
I’m probably a little higher on Duffy than most. I’m just selective about where to spot start. Usually,thats at home versus heavy lefty lineups that aren’t prolific offensively.
Btw, just added Middlebrooks this am, can’t honestly say that Ubaldo is on my team anymore, but I do appreciate the advice and your take! I like your opinions and take them to heart
Keep up the great work..