Mailbag: May 3, 2012
May 3rd, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22
I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).
Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.
I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.
I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup
You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).
Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.
Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.
Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi
It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.
Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.
Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.
Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.
Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).
Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof
Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.
Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.
If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, Chris Johnson, Daniel Murphy, Eric Hosmer, Evan Longoria, Jesus Montero, Kevin Youkilis, Mariano Rivera, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez, Shane Victorino, Will MIddlebrooks
By Robert on May 3, 2012
Hey Ray…since I had to put both Youk and Panda on the DL, I picked up Will Middlebrooks to hopefully get me through Youk’s DL stint. But I’d also like to get another 3B option that qualifies at SS as well…that leaves me with Kyle Seager and Robert Andino (bleh, I know). If it weren’t for the return of Mike Carp possibly taking some ABs away, I definitely go with Seager, but now I’m not so sure. Thoughts?
By Jim on May 3, 2012
Hi Ray, Sort of related to Robert’s question above … I’m having trouble waiting out Danny Espinosa’s struggles, even though I drafted a few high-average players to compensate. Do you think the Giants will use Joaquin Arias at 3B, and will he perform well enough, to justify dropping Espy? Arias already is eligible at 2B in my 15-team mixed roto, where second base is dry as a bone. Thanks!
By jon on May 3, 2012
Hi Ray – A follow up to the 3B question above: has Alvarez done enough in these couple of weeks to make you prefer him over the fine but unspecial Headley for a CI spot in a 10-team league with OPS added? Pedro still on the wire and I could make the switch,though I usually dislike the low-AVG types.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2012
Jim – Arias will not play much 3B. Like the article stated, Conor G. will get the first shot to fill the hot corner. No way I’d drop Espy to add Arias.
By Mark on May 3, 2012
Ray – After reading your recent comments on LaHair, would you trade him for Chris Davis or Pedro Alvarez?
By Chrissy on May 3, 2012
Hi Ray I got a trade offer today 12 team keeper roto
The trade is me giving B.J. Upton and receive D.Stubs.
Thanks Ray!
By greg on May 3, 2012
Ray – My bad. One of the few places I didn’t follow your advice in the guide was by drafting JJ as an “ace” later in my draft. I want to wait on him a little (.430 BABIP, no HRs allowed, sparking K/BB, no HRs allowed) but I’ve just been sent a deal that has my finger itchy. It’s Matt Garza for my Josh J & Luebke.
Currently, my staff comes in as: Verlander, Strasburg, Josh J, Wainwright, Luebke (DL), Scherzer, Bedard.
Do I minimize my risk here and take Garza? Or do you think I’ll be regretting it once JJ’s luck starts to match the skills he’s showing? Luebke’s elbow worries me, even though I love him when healthy. If all were healthy I probably don’t do this deal, but given the circumstances… I’m tempted.
We’re 10 team roto and count QS, W, and K/9 alongside the usual other cats. thanks and have a good night!
By Joel on May 3, 2012
Ray, in my 12 team h2h, i’ve been offered Texeira and Choo for AGonz and Alexei Ramirez. I already have hardy and Furcal at SS so Alexei is totally expendable. What do you think? THANKS!
By brad on May 3, 2012
would you trade uggla for freese or E5?I think uggla to much to give 15 team league i have zobrist as 2nd baseman as replacement mous e and bonoficio as 3rdbaseman
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2012
Mark – LaHair has been so hot, I would have to think if you dealt him you could bring back a player better than Davis or Alvarez.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2012
Chrissy – Keep Upton over Stubbs. I like Stubbs a bunch, but he doesn’t have the top end that Upton does. Close, but not quite.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2012
Greg – you should always listen to everything I say.
Luebke’s situation is very touchy right now with the arm issue, and JJohnson is always an injury risk. Still, I’d hesitate to trade those top-40, potentially, arms and just get one back in Garza.
It’s a 10 team lg so I say hold on to your duo. If one craps out, just hit the waiver wire.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2012
Joel – Tex and AGone are close. I’d side with Gonzalez cause of the batting average, but the duo will likely end up with similar fantasy numbers overall. Choo has struggled with production and health. Still, he’s a two time .300 20/20 guy, and he should be solid if healthy. Given that you don’t need three shortstops, go for it.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2012
Brad – EE can’t play any better and has no chance to keep up this pace. He should be very good if he stays healthy, but this is his high water mark. Freese is great, when he plays. His history says he has no shot to play 150 games, and that concerns me. I’d keep Uggla. You know exactly what you are getting from him and that is elite run production from a second sacker.
By Nathan on May 4, 2012
Ray,
Jose Tabata, Josh Reddick, and Jason Kubel are all available on waivers. Are any of them an upgrade over Nolan Reimold or JD Martinez? Thanks, Nathan
By Jeremy on May 4, 2012
Ouch, read this yesterday and Rivera tears the ACL last night. I don’t have him on any teams so thanks for jinxing the GOAT closer Ray. Who’s the front-runner to steal those Yankee saves, Robertson or Soriano?
By George Borden on May 4, 2012
I’ve been offered Ethier for Encarnacion. Seems like both guys have probably just had the best month of their seasons. What do you think goung forward? George.
By Steve on May 4, 2012
Ray,
I have the following deals out to the same owner:
(1) Lind, Delmon, and Murphy for Butler and Viciedo
(2) Lind, Delmon, and AJ for Wieters
(3) Lind, Murphy, and AJ for Wieters
I think the owner likes offer #1, but I threw out the other two last night. I’d be happy to land either player in my AL-Only league. The other owner is hurting with Callaspo, Rayburn, and Morneau in his lineup and he just picked up Betemit. What do you think?
Steve in Arlington
By Steve on May 4, 2012
Ray,
Also… What do you think of Ernesto Frieri? I have Downs/Walden. Should I pick Frieri up, too? He should be great source of Ks, but might slip into the Closer role especially the way closers are falling this year. Is this a freak year or what? Closers and 3B are falling like flies.
By Paul on May 4, 2012
Montero vs. Montero. Which Montero catcher would be better going forward this year in a 5×5 Roto league (no keepers)?
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2012
Nathan – With the way that Kubel has been killing it the past two weeks, you must be in a 10 tm lg, huh?
With Reimold continuing to be in an out of the lineup, nothing wrong with adding Kubel.
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2012
Jeremy – I know. We joked about how I cursed Rivera on the radio show yesterday. Apparently my words have power.
As I’ve mentioned about seven times on Twitter already – you should follow me there for up to the minute thoughts – I’ve said Robertson has the best arm, the best skills, and should be the closer. However, Soriano could easily be given the job since that is why the Yankees paid him all the money last year – to cover if Mo went down.
https://twitter.com/#!/BaseballGuys
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2012
George Borden – Agreed on your position.
We’ve always known that EE could be a stud, but no one was thinking 20/20 with him. Can’t see the steals keeping up. Ethier has a longer history of success, and frankly, is a better hitter.
Do you need help at third where seemingly everyone is hurt, or do you need OF help? A pretty fair deal here, but I’d prefer Ethier.
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2012
Steve – The problem in league specific setups with uneven deals is that you cant backfill a position. In mixed leagues you can go to the waiver wire and find a guy who will give you 450 at-bats. In an AL only lg you probably wont be able to find a guy to give you 150 at-bats. If you trade away three players for two or two for one, how do you cover the final spot? Is adding the “better player” enough to make up for the substantial loss in at-bats?
If I was doing a deal I would do #1, but then against, it’s an awful lot to give up.
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2012
Steve – Frieri has a great arm and should fit in nicely with the Angels. At this point, I have no idea how the Angels will play it. I can’t really tell someone to roster three bullpen arms from one team, but I don’t know how things will turn out. I can’t think the Angels added Frieri just to be a 7th inning arm. I’m also not convinced that Downs isn’t best served as a setup man. And Walden, it really seems like the Angels just don’t have much faith in him right now.
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2012
Paul – You have to favor Miguel over Jesus at this point. Jesus really needs to work on his plate discipline or that average could be in trouble of falling a wee bit. Plus he’s so young.
By Jim on May 4, 2012
Ray,
Alex Rios became available on waivers. As a third OF, would you rather have him over Stubbs, Upton or Carlos Quentin going forward?
By Steve on May 4, 2012
Thanks for your opinion, Ray! Currently, Lind and Delmon are on my bench along with Damon (until he gets OF elig), Walden, and Hultzen. Murphy starts along with AJ, Tex, Kelly, Lawrie, Alexei, Kipnis, Dunn, Grandyman, Reddick, Span, and Dyson. It would leave me vulnerable if I lost a player to injury (2 and counting). I think I’ll add Viciedo to the offers. This will at least give me a more than P/T player on the bench for depth. Again, THANKS, Ray!
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2012
Jim – Stubbs and Upton are must holds, though tough to start both given that they are the same player. Production should be impressive, but 100 at-bats of a .245 average isn’t great news.
I’d take Rios over Quentin. Carlos will provide pop, but Petco is a tough place to play and the guy has no speed and barely hits .250.