History in the Making
May 9th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
A slugger made history. A pitcher who also made history has hit hard times. A pitcher is getting no love despite personal success. A former elite option is returning to action. Two middling hurlers have been mighty impressive. And oh, Kate Beckinsale…
Josh Hamilton had one of the greatest nights in baseball history Tuesday as he went deep four times with eight RBI as he became just the 16th player every to hit four dingers in a game. He also hit a double to propel him to 18 total bases, the most in a game in the history of the American League (Shawn Green had 19 total bases in his four homer game for the Dodgers in 2002). So what do I say to all of that? Trade Hamilton now at his zenith. Remember, the guy has averaged 114 games played the past three years.
Reason 1,963 why wins mean nothing… Ryan Dempster has a 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 an a 3.60 K/BB ratio through five starts and he is 0-1 for the Cubs.
Phil Humber tossed a perfect game on April 21st, the 21st in the history of the game. However, he’s been an unmitigated disaster in three outings since. Humber has tossed 13.1 innings an allowed 20 hits. As bad as that sounds, it’s nowhere near the worst of it. In those 13.1 innings he’s also walked 11 batters, allowed five home runs and permitted, and his is no misprint, 20 earned runs to cross the plate. Add that all up and Humber, in his last three starts, has an ERA of 13.50 an a WHIP of 2.40. Now you see why I had him ranked outside my top-100 amongst starting pitchers this season and why all that talk about him taking the next step this season were baseless.
I know the movie was terrible, but if anyone can watch Underworld Awakening – which was released on DVD this week – and see Kate Beckinsale and not want to immediately buy some leather pants, then I don’t know what your problem is. Where is my Kate Beckinsale? What a looker.
Andy Pettitte will start for the Yankees on Sunday. With a name that will almost certainly far outpace his production, Pettitte is nothing more than an innings eater for a mixed league staff, an a moderate one at that. The 39 year old tossed four games as he worked his way back into shape and he allowed seven earned runs (3.71 ERA) and 22 base runners (1.29 WHIP) against the whipper snappers in the minors, not exactly impressive totals.
Joe Saunders got lit up Monday allowing six earned runs in 3.1 innings in his first non-quality start of the year in his sixth start. It’s all about the law of averages, or regression to the mean if you prefer. Saunders is the owner of a career 4.10 ERA an only twice in four seasons as a full-time starter has his ERA been under 4.40. Clearly he wasn’t going to post a sub 2.00 ERA this season. In fact, even with his outing Monday his ERA is still nearly a full run better than it has ever been at 2.50 (he had a 3.41 mark in 2008). Given Saunders skill set everything, an I mean everything, will have to go right for him this season to post an ERA under 3.40. What that means is that he still has a long way go to regress back to the pitcher he actually is. Be sure you’re aware of that if you have him rostered as anything other than a rotation filler in mixed leagues.
Carlos Zambrano was a pitcher I targeted as a pick up this week because of his two start status. Consider game one a rousing success as Big Z tossed a nine inning shutout at the Astros permitting only three hits and one walk while striking out nine. I know it was the Astros which is akin to mowing down a Triple-A roster, but it’s time we give Carlos some props. His 1-2 record blows chunks but it certainly has nothing to do with how he has performed as he’s posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP for the Marlins. Moreover, Zambrano has made six starts, all of which have been “quality starts” (at least six innings pitched while permitting three or fewer runs). A hell of a start for the combustible one.
Here are some pitchers that are bound to have brighter days ahead given their massive BABIP mark (it’s very rare to see a hurler end a year with a mark as high as .330).
.439 – Josh Johnson
.407 – Mar Scherzer
.381 – Ivan Nova
.369 – Zack Greinke
.363 – Juan Nicasio
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Andy Pettitte, Carlos Zambrano, Joe Saunders, Josh Hamilton, Josh Johnson, Kate Beckinsale, Phil Humber, Ryan Dempster
By Brian H on May 9, 2012
Nice writeup…swapped Hamilton for Pedroia as was weak at 2B with Jemile Weeks slow start
By Dave on May 9, 2012
Ray, great article. Hamilton is a beast, wish I had him now so i could trade him for a bundle! Espinosa is killing me a 2B in by 12 team roto keeper league. Been trying to be patient since he is streaky, but should I bail for Allen Craig or Omar infante? Thanks!
By Cardinal Bob on May 9, 2012
Ray, I have been offered Cano and Romero for Pujols and Utley. Fair trade?
By jon on May 9, 2012
Hi Ray – I traded Hamilton straight for Verlander about a week ago in my 10-team league. That sound like about the right return? I was feeling… regretful last night. Heh. Really happy for the guy though, of course.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Brian H – I love Pedroia – huge upgrade for you. Given how hot Hammy has been I’d liked to have seen you get a second player in return though.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Dave – Espy is killing me in a league too. However, being that you’re in a keeper lg (I’m not), you need to be careful of letting him go on the cheap. You can move to Craig or Infante who will certainly help you this season, but two/three years from now you’ll likely wish you had Espinosa.
By Brad on May 9, 2012
i traded hanrahan for beachy do you like this trade for me?
I still have robertson and betencourt and santos.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Cardinal Bob – Given that we have no idea when Utley will be back, or how he will perform when he does, I’d deal him and Pujols to get Cano and Romero.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Jon – You traded an ace hitter for an ace pitcher. Hammy for Verlander is a fair deal.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Brad – Santos is hurt, should be back by end of month. Robertson/Betancourt have huge arms, but neither has been a full time closer for a season. Dealing Hanrahan is a risk since he’s the most stable pen arm, but Beachy has a huge arm and bright future so you’re OK.
By greg on May 9, 2012
Quick question, Ray: after drafting a lot of injury risk I’ve been re-tooling my pitching staff through trades. Wanted to get your thoughts on it. We count QS, W, K/9 in addition to the usual.
SP: Verlander, Strasburg, Wainwright, Garza, Scherzer, Bedard
RP: Kimbrel, Robertson, Casilla, Downs, Janssen
Those last 2 RP spots are rolling for RPs du jour and trading – first 3 guys are my core. I’ve considered trying to package Garza and Casilla to get one more pitching upgrade. Good move or stay put?
By Mark on May 9, 2012
Ray – As you can see your guide helped me in addition to some idiots in my league which helped bolster my squad. I need your guidance with how to shape my roster before Utley and Howard come back in a 12 team 5×5 roto league with 3 DL spots.
Montero
Hosmer
Kipnis
Aramis Ramirez
Reyes
LaHair
Hardy
Zobrist
Braun
Bruce
Bourn
Rios
LaRoche
(DL) Howard
(DL) Utley
Kershaw
Shields
Grienke
Cliff Lee
Morrow
Peavy
Marshall
Robertson
Frank Francisco
(DL)Dice-K
Should I sell high on guys like Peavy, LaHair and Kipnis? Maybe package Kipnis with Montero for a better catcher? (The guy who owns Napoli needs a lot of help). I’m in a good spot but am trying to be proactive. Thanks as always!
By Craig D on May 9, 2012
Ray,
I was offered Brett Lawrie for Dave Robertson. Currently have Martin Prado at 3B, and I would still have Dolis, Downs, Walden, Pestano, Reed, and Cashner at RP.
make the Deal?
By Jeremy on May 9, 2012
I just received Jon Lester and David Robertson for Adam Wainwright and Addison Reed. How did I do?
By Nick on May 9, 2012
I’m desperate for a left fielder in a 10 team h2h keeper league with a salary cap. The options are LeHair, John Jay, Reddick, Luke Scott, Carlos Lee, Vernon Wells, and Dirks. Do you have a preference? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Greg – All depends who you can get. Until we have concrete names to discuss it’s nearly impossible to decide whether a move make sense or not. In theory, if you move Casilla and Garza, you’re going to need at least a top-15SP in return.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Mark – Peavy, LaHair, Kipnis. None will keep up their current pace. LaHair’s BABIP is .200 points too high. Ridiculous. Peavy hasn’t even been a 150-inning pitched guy in years. Those make both of those guys high on my sell-high list. If you can get people to pay full value for them, I’d be selling. Ditto with Kipnis, though he should still be a solid play this year.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Craig D – I think you have to do this deal. Prado also qualifies at OF so you could move him there. Your group of arms would certainly look much better if Robertson was in the mix, but with bullpen volatility this year, a potential five category 3B like Lawrie certainly holds a lot of value in my mind.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Jeremy – Too late now that the deal is made.
I’d take Lester over Wainwright.
I’d take Robertson over Reed.
I think you “won” though it’s a 3-2 game = it’s really a toss up how it will play out this year.
By Ray Flowers on May 9, 2012
Nick – How in the world is LaHair available? The guy has been a top-10 hitter. He should have been rostered for a month. At this point though, I worry about the slow down that will begin.
Still, it’s LaHair and hope he keeps producing, or Carlos Lee for me.
By Alan on May 10, 2012
Ray,
3 of my RP’s imploded yesterday. Would you suggest dropping any of my starters or relievers to pick up a R. Soriano for insurance on Robinson or a Downs, Reed, Aceves, Cishek, or Dolis?
SP: Lee, Shields, Romero, D. Hudson, A. Sanchez, Peavy, Capuano
RP:Axford, K. Jansen, Marshall, Casilla, Robertson
Thanks
By Bill on May 10, 2012
Ray,
Is giving up H. Ramirez and B. Harper giving up too much to get Hamilton?
By Jason on May 10, 2012
Ray,
So I got a guy trying to get Samardzija from me. He’s offering Samardzija and McCutchen for Victorino and Kuroda. Do I make that deal (12-tm, 6×6 cats.)?
Thanks for all you do!
By Nathan on May 10, 2012
Ray,
I’m in a league (12 team) that doesn’t credit strikeouts or wins, instead it’s ERA, WHIP, QS, K/BB, holds, and saves. In that format is Lincecum worth holding onto or should I try to move him? Thanks for all your help.
By Steve on May 10, 2012
Ray,
This is Steve from Arlington. I had to add to my weak SP collection. My league is 5×5, AL-Only, cumulative stats. My pitching now includes:
SP = Beckett, Niemann, Holland, Paulino, Pavano, Tomlin
RP = Nathan, Downs, Sale, Walden, Strop, Frieri
I was offered Floyd for Sale, but rejected it based on your advice, which I do not regret. I think Sale is worth more than Floyd, too. If Sale goes down like Pineda, than so be it, but a healthy Sale (SP or CL) should net me a higher tier SP than Floyd. My dilemma is who would you start next week? I need every pitching category (W, ERA, WHIP, Ks, Saves).
I’m thinking the following:
Beckett vs SEA and PHI
Holland vs OAK
Niemann vs TOR and ATL
Pavano vs CLE and MIL
Tomlin vs SEA
Nathan, Frieri, and Walden
I’d swap in Downs and Sale for Frieri and Walden if they are deemed healthy come Monday morning, but would you start Paulino vs BAL over any of the other pitchers?
Also, would you start Billy Butler with the odds he’ll sit vs the NL? I can’t see KC sitting Hosmer for Butler, but you never know. I just need 2 more games to gain 1B eligibility. I have Span to insert OR I can try to pick up Arencibia off waivers.
Thanks for all you do, Ray!
By Jim on May 10, 2012
Ray –
10 team league, 5×5, we can only add people in supplemental drafts, and 1st one isn’t until May 30. I’m currently in 1st, so would have 10th pick.
I had Longoria and Valencia at 3b, so now hurting. I have trade offer of Beltre for Gio Gonzalez. I would have Masterson or Holland to move into Gio’s spot. I think I should do it, but seems a lot to give up for a 3 week need? Players I can get on May 30 include Encarnacion, Aviles, Chipper, Moustakas, and Chris Davis. Would you do the deal, knowing I have Longoria coming back? Pitchers I can get on supplemental include Lynn, Peavy, Westbrook, Lohse, Capuano, Wandy Rodriguez, Sale, Colby Lewis, Smyly…
Wondering how Ray would deal with the 3b hole. Only other person I think I could pull a trade for at 3b would by Ryan Roberts – should I push that – try to trade Masterson or Holland for him?
Help greatly appreciated!
By brad on May 10, 2012
Do you think Robertson will have the closer job all year or will they mix and match. I could trade robertson for Hanrahan, not sure would rather go safer route and not worry about new closer.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2012
Alan – You CANNOT drop any player over one game. Can’t.
I’d stick with your group… no one on waivers is any better – Robertson has a HUGE arm.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2012
Bill – In a keeper lg, yes. In a re-draft nah, but I wouldn’t do it. I can’t trust Hamilton to play more than 120 games – he’s only avg. 114 games the past three years.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2012
Jason – Samardzija/McCutchen for Victorino/Kuroda
You want the first side.
Kuroda might very well be better than JS, but he’s old, in a tough lg, in a tough park etc. JS has a bigger arm. Both OF are impressive, but McC is just better.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2012
Nathan – Who can you get for him? Can never tell if any move is worth it until we got some specifics.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2012
Steve – Too early in the week to predict who to start next week. Injuries, weather, change of rotations etc. make it too early to discuss pitchers for next week.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2012
Jim – Odd lg here. I usually tell people there is no way you can leave an opening and just take a zero in your lineup. In your case, maybe you can.
The deal of Gio Gonzalez for Beltre is fair. However, do you have middle and corner infielders? If not, then getting Beltre is canceled out when you add Longoria off injury.
I don’t make a move to add Roberts.
Since its not a lock that Longoria is healthy and ready in 4-5 weeks, I’d do the deal since I don’t want to take a zero for three weeks.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2012
Brad – Robertson should be fine, and he should be the Yankees closer. At same time, if I could get Hanrahan for him, I would make that move.
By Pat on May 13, 2012
I’ve got Will Middlebrooks on my bench. While he may not be in the majors for long would you start him over ARod until he gets sent down? Or as a CI over Freddie Freeman?
Thanks…
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2012
Pat – As hot as Will has been, I find it very hard to consider starting him over Arod. If you wanting to do it, you certainly can though, same with Freeman. Do you think Will is a .310 hitter with a 1.000 OPS? I know I don’t which means I’d be wary of a slow down.
By Pat on May 14, 2012
Thanks Ray…left ARod in for the week. So far so good!
By Mitch on May 14, 2012
I would give up Mccutchen and Arod for Pujols and Santiago Casilla. Would move Cabrera to 3rd and Pujols to first. I could use the closer and my OF would be: Swisher, Borne, Troute, and Morales at DH. 12 team h2h category.
Do i make this trade?
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2012
Mitch – McCuthcen is obliterating Pujols in value right now. He’s certainly a better all-around option with his speed. Even if Pujols becomes Pujols tomm, there may not be a significant diff between these two. Arod will go 30-100 if he stays healthy. He always does. If you really need saves you can do this, but remember that it’s not like Casilla is a lock for the whole season or anything.