Daily Joust – Wk 6: Did We Learn Anything?
May 14th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.
GAINERS OF THE WEEK
Ryan Dempster (+14, $357K in DailyJoust salary)
Working around an injury, Dempster has taken the hill five times this year with spectacular results: 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and never allowing more than two runs in a start. He’s also posted a 3.60 K/BB ratio while striking out 36 batters in 35.1 innings. You really can’t pitch much better than he has to this point. The only negative is the anemic offensive support that he has received as he’s failed to win a game, again, despite only allowing more than one run one time (he allowed two runs to the Brewers). Shame on you Cubs.
Christian Friedrich (+77, $228K)
Was recalled to take the spot of Guillermo Moscoso in the Rockies rotation and he had a solid first start allowing two runs, only one earned, over six innings against the Padres. However, the start was against the Padres, and it was at Petco, so that makes profiling the effort difficult. This left hander has had a rough couple of years after once being regarded as one of the better lefty pitching prospects in the game. Last season he went 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA at Double-A, so it would be wise to be very wary of him turning into Lance Lynn anytime soon.
Jimmy Rollins (+11, $72K)
No player on the Phils has struggled worse than Rollins with Howard-Utley out of the mix. Hitting just .230 with one homer the only thing keeping Rollins afloat is his seven steals. For a guy with a putrid .275 OBP his 17 runs scored in 35 games isn’t bad, and it’s not like he’s going to be losing any playing time, but this has still been a painfully slow start to the year. Just a season removed from 16 homers, 30 steals and 87 runs scored, did Rollins get “old” overnight? I’m betting he didn’t.
Yovani Gallardo (+48, $243K)
After that shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (8 ER in 2.0 IP) Gallardo, as he always does, rebounded in his last two outings to allow a total of five runs while striking out 12 batters in 12 innings. In one of the odder starts to a season of any arm out there, if you remove his two starts against the Cardinals – 14 ERA in 5.2 innings – here are his numbers from his other five starts: 2.45 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP. Just don’t pitch him when he faces the Cards and you would appear to be fine.
Jake Westbrook (+52, $323K)
We’ve seen plenty of pitchers have their career revived while pitching in St. Louis, so maybe Westbrook is the next arm in that line to do so. His 1.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through six starts are special, especially for a guy with carer marks of 4.27 and 1.39. Only once in six starts has he failed to produce a quality start, and he wasn’t awful in that outing allowing four runs. Through 41 innings he has a solid 2.70 K/BB ratio, but it’s one full batter above his career rate, while his 5.93 K/9 mark is also a batter above his carer norm. Pitchers don’t usually post career bests in those numbers in their 12th big league season. Solid but unspectacular, he has nowhere to go but down from here.
LOSERS OF THE WEEK
Homer Bailey (-47, $162)
Blessed with a big arm, Bailey simply cannot form any type of consistency. A run of 4-straight quality starts was broken up by a stinker against the Brewers as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings. He’s also been taken deep six times in six starts helping to explain his 4.93 ERA. His current K/BB rate of 1.85 points to just how middling a performer he continues to be (over at Fleaflicker he is only owned in seven percent of leagues). It certainly doesn’t seem like his rotation spot is in serious jeopardy, but at some point the Reds are going to need to see some improvement, or at least some consistency.
Asdrubal Cabrera (-19, $96K)
Hitting .315 on the season would be a tremendous accomplishment for a guy who owns a .283 career mark. However, Cabrera was hitting .356 literally a week ago so he’s clearly slumped a wee bit. Asdrubal one one RBI in his last seven games, and he has just three homers and two steals on the season. Where is the guy that went 25/17 last year? He’s just where I said he would be in his Player Profile – he’s gone.
Ross Detwiler (-52, $247K)
Ross has made six starts, has failed to allow more than three runs in an outing, owns a 2.10 ERA an a 1.02 WHIP through 34.1 innings. It’s impossible to find any fault with his efforts so far this year. As I’ve said before he doesn’t have the underlying skills to support this hot start, but he is generating a ground ball rate of 54 percent with 6.55 K’s per nine, so maybe the landing will be a soft one even when the regression comes. So maybe he isn’t going to win the Cy Young award this season but he’s still had a wonderful start to the season.
Dan Haren (-80, $227K)
If his current owner is panicking after he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start, or because he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, now is the time to pounce. Haren is sporting a 7.33 K/9 mark, slightly better than last season, and he’s currently walking a mere 1.88 batters per nine innings (career 1.89). He’s also been saddled with a .323 BABIP which might continue, but at the same time he’s never had a mark above .311 for a season and owns a career mark of .290. I’m also pretty confident he won’t end the year with a 22.9 percent line drive rate which would be a career worst. Given time to normalize Haren should do just that.
Ian Kennedy (-36, $229K)
He was never going to match last season, so put that out of your head (see his Player Profile). Still, prior to giving up six runs in his last outing, Kennedy had a 3.23 ERA through six starts showing that’s he’s still darn likely to be a successful arm. Through seven outings Kennedy owns an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio and his GB/FB, HR/F and line drive rates are all pretty darn similar to last season, so just pass on from the bad outing the last time he took the hill and realize this is still one fine fantasy option.
DAILY CONTEST
Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Asdrubal Cabrera, Christian Friedrich, Dan Haren, Homer Bailey, Ian Kennedy, Jake Westbrook, Jimmy Rollins, Ross Detwiler, Ryan Dempster, Yovani Gallardo
By Joe M on May 14, 2012
One of the OCD guys in my league (12 team) for some reason just dropped Haren. I have #6 on waivers, I hope I get him. It’s great, we have 2 guys in the league who drop players like flies (both first timers), this might be a real score.
By donna on May 14, 2012
Ray- Is Ervin Santana worth a start this week with two starts vs. one start Tommy Hanson or Latos?
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2012
Joe M – Idiot dropping Haren, but good news for you. I guess your leaguemates don’t follow BaseballGuys.com?
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2012
Donna – Ervin Santana is a solid play this week starting against Oakland and Padres in SD > like that a lot.
By Joe M on May 14, 2012
Sorry Ray, I spread the baseballguys/ray flowers words everywhere… Except guys in my league.
By Bobby on May 14, 2012
Hello Ray.
Is there going to be an innings limit on Lance Lynn?
In your opinion what is his value i need O.F help can he get me back a top 10 of? top 20? He is the number 1 sp in my league.
thank you
Bobby
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2012
Bobby – I keep saying it, but here it is again. Lynn has NO chance to keep this up. If someone would trade me a top-10 OF for him, I’d do it immediately. Nothing in Lynn’s history suggests he will keep this up. Not a single baseball person ever thought he would be this good. Frankly, he’s just not this good. Great story, but sell him before the slowdown starts.
By Tom on May 14, 2012
Ray, I am in a 10 team AL only keeper. Who has the better skill set, Greg Holland or Ernesto Frieri? Should either be released when Jonathan Sanchez comes back off the DL? Thanks as always for your advice.
Tom
By Jim on May 14, 2012
Ray, one of the most valuable write-ups you’ve done evaluating hitting skills, IMO, appeared in a piece you did comparing Austin Jackson and Dexter Fowler (http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/02/player-profile-fowler-vs-jackson/). In the piece, I think you rightly assessed Fowler as the better leadoff option based on their histories. Taking Fowler out of the conversation due to his injury, Jackson appears to be raking as a result of a reduced strikeout rate, improved OBP, and sort of a phat BABIP.
May I ask your opinion of how sustainable A-Jax’s performance is based on these early trends? Sure, it always helps to be hitting atop the Tigers order, but what sort of normalization, if any, do think we might expect. Thanks, as always.
By Bill on May 15, 2012
Ray,
I have Josh Hamilton and have been getting some serious offers from a guy in my league. I wanted to get your opinion on the best offer:
Adam Jones, Carlos Lee, Gio Gonzalez for my Hamilton or Adam Jones, Cliff Lee, R. Furcal for my Hamilton. The guy also has Cano, Weaver, CJ WIlson, Gallardo on his roster that look good to me. Any thoughts to get me the best deal for Hamilton? Seems like he is willing to give up a lot.
Thanks
By prettyflowers on May 15, 2012
Hi Ray — thanks for your help in the past. Always a pleasure to come here. My 12-team keeper league counts both holds and saves. I’ve had Rex Brothers as one of my holds guys, but his WHIP and ERA in the last few weeks are beginning to worry me. I’m thinking about dropping him for either Mike Adams, Antonio Bastardo, or Aaron Crow. Do you think that’s a solid move, and if so, which of the trio do you prefer? My initial thought is Adams because TX is the best team (more holds chances), but he has only been pitching every 5 days or so recently & his k/9 rate is way down this season. Anyway, thanks & all the best
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2012
Tom – I’d say Holland has the slightly better skill set here (Frieri a bit more wild and so many fly balls allowed). In a 10 tm keeper, I’d be more likely to hold Holland. When Sanchez is active it’s hard to say you shouldn’t consider him for innings, so if you had to drop Frieri, though I’m not a huge fan of that move.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2012
Jim – Thanks for the props on the piece. Unfortunately the results haven’t met my expectations.
As for AJax — he has shown major K improvement, but still, I’d be wary. We have 300 games at 26 percent K Rate and just 34 at 19 percent. Good start, but not enough to change my opinion yet. Same with walk rate that has show a huge jump fro eight to 12.6 percent. He’s also hitting more liners and less grounders and his HR/F ratio has almost doubled.
Lots of seeds here, and if he holds on to them he will have a big season, but it’s rare that a player improves so dramatically in every category after establishing themself as a certain player over 1,200 at-bats.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2012
Bill – Adam Jones, Carlos Lee and Gio Gonzalez for Josh Hamilton OR Jones/CliffLee/Furcal for Hamilton.
I’d take either offer to be honest. Given me the first one though.
Remember — you will have to drop two players to even this out. Who are they? When you add them in to make it a 3-for-3 deal, does it still look lopsided in your favor?
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2012
Prettyflowers – Glad to be able to help.
Adams K-rate is down this year, but it’s only 13.2 innings. Not enough to make a judgement. Still, he’s kept the walks down leading to a strong 4.00 K/BB ratio. No problem recommending hm as an add over Brothers. The Rockies arm is impressive, big arm actually, but he’s struggled this season as you noted, and he’s actually thrown an inning less than Adams.
By Jake on May 15, 2012
Ray,
I’ve got two Halo’s killing me right now. Pujols and Aybar. I got Aybar mostly for the steals and he’s been pretty quite on the basepaths so far, and I’ve gotten a few offers for Pujols, is he lost for the year(Adam Dunn last year) or can I expect a turnaround and just wait it out.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2012
Jake – There is NO way Pujols pulls an Adam Dunn. Pujols is so much greater a hitter than Dunn ever was. The only way Pujols has a “Dunn-like” effort this year is if he is hurt. Maybe that elbow of his, that has long been an issue, is finally crapping out? Total speculation by the way on my part. I’m not saying you don’t trade Pujols, but I’m not if I’m getting back 75 cents on the dollar.
By brad on May 15, 2012
I need another closer who would you rank higher C Perez or B Myers? Rest of season
By Joel on May 15, 2012
Ray,
in my 12 team H2H league I’m really tempted to cut jason ubel for Roger Bernadina. who’d you rather have ROTW? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2012
Brad – Both guys are about the same ROTW. I’d favor Perez for saves, but Myers flashing slightly better skills. Reason I say Perez though for saves is cause I still think Myers ends up being dealt, and it might be to a team that uses him as a setup man.