Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead
May 25th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball with DailyJoust.com.
Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your daily fantasy baseball lineup for Friday or Saturday.
HITTERS – FRIDAY
Phillies vs. Kyle Lohse: Look at the numbers some of the Phillies’ batters have put up against Lohse, they are pretty staggering – Juan Pierre (.500), Ty Wigginton (.533), Brian Schneider (.308), Hunter Pence (.317) and Placido Polanco (.357). All of that doesn’t include Ryan Howard (.500) and Jim Thome (.400) who aren’t active. Moreover, the entire Phillies roster has hit .299 against Lohse.
Carlos Pena vs. Jon Lester: In two games as a leadoff man Pena is hitting .375 with a homer, three runs an a .545 OBP. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling Friday when he takes on Jon Lester, a pitcher that he has hit hard to the tune of five homers, 13 RBI an a 1.086 OPS in 37 at-bats.
Ichiro Suzuki vs. Ervin Santana: Hitting just .283 on the season, Ichiro is no longer the dominating force he once was. Still, the guy is no stranger to the base hit and given that he faces Santana, who he is hitting .350 against in 80 at-bats (big time sample size), you have to feel pretty good about his odds. Speaking of something having to do with odds, how about this oddity – Ichiro has tried to steal off Santana nine times and he’s never been successful.
PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Anthony Bass vs. Mets: The Metropolitans are hitting .259 with a mere 26 homers and 187 runs scored (the homer total is second lowest in the NL and they’ve scored three runs more than the Giants which should tell you how potent their offense isn’t). Bass has a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season which includes a total of four runs allowed in his last three starts.
Yovani Gallardo vs. D’backs: Gallardo is on a roll having gone 3-straight outings of six innings while allowing two or fewer runs. He’s also scaled back the long ball having allowed just one in eight starts. Friday he faces a D’backs club that he has owned in his career going 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 32 Ks in 30 innings.
Tim Hudson vs Nationals: Since returning to the field all that Hudson has done is pitch like, Tim Hudson. In five starts he is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, an in four of his outings he’s allowed two or fewer runs. He faces a Washington club that used to be the Expos (remember that?) Friday. In 23 starts against the franchise he has been phenomenal going 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA an a 1.09 WHIP.
HITTERS – SATURDAY
Melky Cabrera vs. Mark Buehrle: I admit it. I was apparently wrong about Melky Cabrera. Watching him on a daily basis, all the guy does is hit. Currently batting .362 on his way to leading baseball in hits (67) there is virtually no way he won’t go off Saturday. Cabrera is 17-for-27 against Buehrle for a .630 average. Flipping amazing.
Alex Rodriguez vs. Bartolo Colon: Flipping amazing #2. A-Rod is hitting .468 against Colon over 47 at-bats. He’s not rapping out singles either as his 22 hits have produced six doubles, a triple an eight homers leading to 17 RBI. The guy has a 1.149, not OPS but SLG mark, against Colon (his OPS is 1.630).
Luke Scott vs. Josh Beckett: Scott is having a strong power season with eight homers and 31 RBI, though his average is languishing down at .243. Perhaps seeing Beckett on the hill will help him to continue his productive efforts as he has 10 hits in 24 at-bats (.417) including three homers and seven RBI.
PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Mike Minor vs. Nationals: This one is as much a hunch as anything else. Look, I know his ERA is 6.96 and his WHIP 1.45, but I’m telling you, the parts are far greater than the sum here. In 53 innings this season he has 48 Ks. In 15.2 innings against the Nats in his career he has 16 Ks, has issued just five walks, and has a 1.28 WHIP. Risky as all hell, but sooner or later he is going to have a gem.
Bud Norris vs. Dodgers: Over his last four starts Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while he’s racked up 29 Ks in 26 innings as perhaps the hottest pitcher in baseball (people might be a bit slow to wake up to that fact if we can judge by the numbers over at Fleaflicker). The Saturday matchup affords him a Dodgers club that he has faced five times leading to some dominating numbers as well (2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28 Ks in 30.1 innings with a .183 BAA). Lock and load.
Jerome Williams vs. Mariners: It’s almost as simple as – if a guy is facing the Mariners you can have confidence starting him. Williams has had success in two starts against the Mariners with a 3.00 ERA and 0,73 WHIP over 15 innings, and there’s no reason to think he won’t keep the good times rolling with another solid effort.
CONTESTS
I just gave you some rather substantial advice on how you could have success this weekend, right? Sign up for the Beat Ray Promotion – it will be on the $50 freeroll this week. Go to the BaseballGuys/DailyJoust landing page, sign up for the $50 Free Roll, and have at it.
Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Anthony Bass, Bud Norris, Carlos Pena, Ichiro Suzuki, Jerome Williams, Kyle Lohse, Luke Scott, Melky Cabrera, Mike Minor, Tim Hudson, Yovani Gallardo
By Nick on May 25, 2012
I was offered Venters for Brett Myers in a saves and holds league. I already have Jansen, Hanrahan and Motte. Would you make the deal? My only hesitation is that Myers can be slotted into a SP spot. Thanks.
By Derek on May 25, 2012
Hello Ray, have appreciated advice, listen to ya on XM alot, what do you make of clippard ? 2 saves in a row, chance he takes job and runs with it ? Better option than Reed, Frieri ?
By Jonathan on May 26, 2012
Ray, I think I might have fantasys most frustrating pitching staff, and it is starting to really get to me, especially after last night. I feel like I need to make a move. I have a 10 team H-H 5×5 league that uses k/9 instead of k’s. My staff is Gallardo, Lester, Josh Johnson , Wandy Rodriguez, Scherzer, and Morrow. Latos is currently sitting as an available FA and Matt Moore is on waivers. Should I consider dropping anyone for either of those two available pitchers? Seriously, what is going on with Lester? Is he really that bad or do you anticipate him to turn it around? Thanks!
By Benny on May 26, 2012
Hey Ray – which side would you rather in a keeper league: Prince and Lester vs Hosmer and Felix? And on a side note, do you think Hosmer will ever be able to beat the shift that teams are usin agains him? I think that shift has been more of a problem than him being “unlucky”.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Derek – I’ve written, and said repeatedly, that Clippard should be the closer. The Nats have never made that decision, and they still say they are doing a committee thing. Lidge and Storen will be back at some point too, so even if Clippard is in the lead right now, I’d be shocked if he closed all year. Still, worth an add as he is obviously highly skilled — it’s why I had him listed at inside my top-30 fore RPs this year even though he wasn’t anywhere near the closer spot.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Jonathan – 10 tm leagues, you dont have to stick with arms, you can always cycle through them since guys are always, ALWAYS, on waivers.
I dont see any names on your staff that you have to drop. In fact, that’s still a strong group of arms.
LESTER: Walk rate is normal. BABIP is normal. HR/9 only up. WHIP up only a bit. GB-rate better than normal. Allowing fewer fly balls than ever before.
Two issues. One, he’s giving up too many line drives at 22.3 percent. He’s been under 18 percent last three years so some regression is likely.
The main issue is that he isn’t missing bats. His K-rate has caved. He’s throwing as hard as last year so health doesn’t seem to be an issue. He is throwing more fastball and less cutters so that’s something to consider.
Adding it all up, I think he will figure things out and certainly improve.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Benny- keeper league: Prince and Lester vs Hosmer and Felix?
I’d rather have Felix over Lester.
I’d rather have Prince over Hosmer.
Take your pick, but if it was me I’d take the more sure thing at the bat, so I’d take the first duo.
Teams shifted on Bonds all the time. Ortiz too etc. Shift can certainly cause some issues, batters just need to adjust.
By Alan on May 26, 2012
Ray,
I’ve got a guy in my league that is willing to give up BJ Upton for a SP.
Which one of my guys do you think I should give up to get Upton:
Romero, A.Sanchez, Capuano, Paulino, Hudson, Shields, McDonald?
Appreciate the advice.
By jon on May 26, 2012
Hi Ray – who’d you rather have for a 5th OF in a 10-team league with AVG + OPS: Delmon Young or Dayan Vicideo? I know you liked Delmon a fair amount in the guide, but are you believing in Vicideo’s recent surge? I could use the pop Vicideo has shown, which it’s reasonable to think could keep up in that park as it warms up. Thoughts? happy saturday, man!
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Alan – I’m a big fan of Paulino, as you probably know, but injuries are part of the deal with him, and it remains to be seen how he will handle the innings. If you can move him for BJ Upton, do it immediately.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Jon – Del Young has been a flop. If you wanted to move on to Viciedo, I wouldn’t say you were bad fella. I would tell ya though, Viciedo still NEVER walks. When he’s locked in that’s great, but when he’s off it can get ugly. Certainly hitting better now. He’s a 20 HR guy, not more at this point.
By greg on May 26, 2012
Hey Ray – Just traded Dickey for Rios (I know you like him). Good buy low or a blah kind of deal? We count QS, W, AVG, OPS in my 10-team roto.
By Alan on May 26, 2012
Ray,
I tried offering Paulino for BJ Upton like you suggested but the owner declined. He wants Romero and I’d get Upton. What do you think? This is a 12 team 5×5 league.
By jeff on May 26, 2012
Hello Ray.
I need a little help. 14 team 5×5 roto team. We can only have 10 pitchers total. I have Daniel Hudson coming off the DL and if I don’t off the DL before first pitch my team will be illegal. I have: Garza, Greinke, J Santana, Lester, Wandy Rodriguez, Hammel as my starters and I Casilla, Jansen, Nathan, Soriano. I have been trying to trade RP but no takers. Who do you suggest? Thanks for the help.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Greg – Rios is a nice add. Still, in a 10 team lg, until he really starts playing up to expectations, he’s a boring option. Still hope though, it’s a long season of course.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Alan – I dont have an issue dealing Romero for Upton. However, after Shields, he is probably your most stable option. If you are OK doing the deal taking on SP risk, then go for it.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2012
Jeff – So you can’t leave him on your DL spot eh? Really tough here. I’d say your only real option is to drop Hammel from the pitchers you listed. That hurts because I’m sure you could trade him for something, but he’s your weakest link. Any chance you can swing a 2 for 1 deal?
Gotta tell ya by the way, impressive staff for lg this deal.
By Sherm on May 27, 2012
Ray, in a standard redraft league is Jimmy Rollins a good player to target for the rest of this season? I can use an SS upgrade (I have Cozart and Aybar). I want to offer a SP and a Closer for him. Say, Anibal Sanchez and Fuentes, since his team needs both. Any thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2012
Sherm – Rollins is a solid add. First, Howard/Utley are closing on returns. Second, he’s always been, for what it’s worth, a second half performer (his AVG is up .018, OBP up .020, SLG up .051, ALSO more homers and SBs in 2nd half in 680 fewer at-bats). Third, there’s no way he can be this awful all year. All that said, he’s hitting .225 with a homer, so I think an SP and a CL is too much. Sanchez is too much to pay on his own at the moment, so don’t just throw in Fuentes. What about Fuentes/Aybar or something like that to start?