Daily Joust – Wk 9: Did We Learn Anything?
June 4th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.
GAINERS OF THE WEEK
Darwin Barney (+5, $92K in DailyJoust salary)
Barney is boring. There, I said it. Still, he’s had four games in his last nine outings with at least two hits as he’s boosted his average from .259 to .275. Because he’s been getting on base a lot, he’s also scored six times in his last six games. Barney is no great shakes but he’s hit .276 over his last 707 at-bats even though he has no power (five homers) and averge speed (12 steals). More of an injury fill-in than anything else.
Mark Trumbo (+7, $120K)
It all looks amazing right now. Trumbo is hitting .331 while being on pace for 30 homers. Wanna bet he doesn’t get there? Trumbo has blown away even the most optimistic of expectations, but there are still a few things here worth noting. His 1.16 GB/FB ratio is average. His 21 percent K-rate isn’t great. His 0.34 BB/K mark isn’t worth anything. His .378 BABIP is not a sustainable pace, not with an 18 percent line drive rate. It’s just not. I’ve said/written it many times before, but the guy just isn’t a .300 hitter, even with his impressive 46 game run to start the year (the people at Fleaflicker aren’t buying it either).
Justin Smoak (+8, $118K)
Finally. After being a near automatic out for a couple of years, Smoak has finally started to hit like the guy who was drafted 11th overall in 2008. In his last nine games Smoak has peppered the seats with five balls, driven in 14 runs and scored nine times on his way to raising his OPS from .568 to .703. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves we should still note that his slash line is terrible (.283/.293/.409), as is his BB/K mark (0.33), and he continues to be completely ineffective against lefties (.214 with one homer in 56 at-bats). I’m heartened by his recent work, but he’s still got a long way to go to prove he should be in the active lineup without question the rest of the way.
Jason Vargas (+41, $277K)
Through 12 starts he has a 3.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, pretty heady work for a fella who owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for his career. Can he sustain his performance? His K/9 mark is bad (5.74) but same as always (5.72). His 2.50 K/BB ratio isn’t awful, but it’s still just a bit above the league rate (2.34). His 0.94 GB/FB rate is slightly better than the 0.74 mark he owns for his career but still well below the league average (1.10 or so). His BABIP of .223 isn’t likely to be a sustainable pace either, not for a guy with a career .276 mark who has never finished a year under .272. This is as good as it gets with Vargas and he’s likely to slip up moving forward.
LOSERS OF THE WEEK
Bobby Abreu (-11, $63K)
Abreu started off his Dodgers career on fire. Predictably, things have slowed since. Oh he’s still hitting .310 with a .437 OBP in 26 games with the Dodgers, simply fantastic production from the aging vet, but he has a mere seven hits in his last 10 games during which time he has scored a mere three runs. There’s still room to go down here making Abreu nothing more than an NL-only option.
Christian Friedrich (-20, $188K)
Three wins in five starts is fine, but after dominating the Padres and Giants in his first two starts it’s gotten ugly. Over his last three outings Christian has allowed 16 runs over 16 innings. My analytical mind tells me that he’s posted an ERA of 9.00 in that time (how impressed are you – I didn’t even need my calculator). The 15 Ks in those three starts give him an impressive 32 in 29 innings, but they come at such a high price that it isn’t anywhere near worth it right now.
Alex Gordon (-21, $55K)
Hitting a mere .244, that is the highest his average has been since May 16th, Gordon has a hit in 7-straight games an in each of the last four games he has produced a double. He still has only one steal on the year, and his total of four homers is boring as all get out, but at least he has picked up the pace of late. Hitting just .219 with a .686 OPS in the leadoff spot this season (73 at-bats), Gordon really seems to like it when he is batting second in the order (.343/.425/.557 in 70 at-bats).
Jarrod Parker (-27, $181K)
Through seven starts Parker has a 2.88 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for the Athletics. Remove his awful outing against the Giants and he’s gone six starts without allowing more than two earned runs. He has been difficult as all hell to hit with a .228 BAA, but the walks are a big time concern. In four of his last five outings he’s issued at least four free passes, and sooner or later those catch up with you (his 29:21 K/BB mark is awful – 1.38). He’s a 2-start pitcher this week but matches with the Rangers and D’backs would seem to suggest that he’s not exactly someone you should roll out there without worrying about.
Michael Saunders (-8, $68K)
Yes he’s hitting only .257, and suiting up for the Mariners doesn’t exactly make you someone that anyone is rushing out to add, but have you noticed that he’s on pace to go 15/25 this year? He’s got to cut down the K’s though, he has 52 in 183 at-bats, or that .257 average of his might dip even further, especially considering that his BABIP of .331 is .062 points above his career mark. An effective, under the radar option that has holes in his game.
DAILY CONTEST
Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free cashola.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Gordon, Bobby Abreu, Christian Friedrich, Darwin Barney, Jarrod Parker, Jason Vargas, Justin Smoak, Mark Trumbo, Michael Saunders
By Fish on Jun 4, 2012
Ray,
Is Brad Lincoln worth a pickup or is he just a temporary (maybe 2) starter this week who goes back to the pen when Karstens is ready?
By brad on Jun 4, 2012
I was just offered Lincecum and thole for Morneau and Neinhuis. I need pitching Halliday is hurt. I just don’t know if lincecum is done? Morneau looks like he will hit 30 Do you think lincecum will turn it around?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Fish – Lincoln is an NL only option at this point of his development. If he performs well he could lock down a starting spot, but it’s not close to being a lock. He’s starting the 6th, so he’s only making one start this week.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Brad – First off, no one in the world can say with a straight face that Morneau is gonna hit 30 homers. The last time he did that was 2009 and he’s not on pace to get there this year. Second, I don’t know how many times I have to say it but Lincecum is NOT done. I keep saying it over and over.
K/9 9.55, better than last year. 1.40 Gb/Fb (career 1.39).
Real issue is too many walks, way too many. It should decline since it’s a batter an a half higher, per nine, than it has been last four years. Also, after 4-straight years of a LOB% over 75%, I can’t think his 62 percent mark is gonna continue).
Thole is useless unless your in at least a 12 team lg that starts 2 catchers. Still, if you need pitching, I don’t have a huge issue with this.
By brad on Jun 4, 2012
buerle and delmon young for morneau or
pettite and span for morn eau or
lincecum deal I heard what you said I’m in 15 team league and pitching is wins -losses x two kbb important
just pick deal you like ill listen.
By jason on Jun 4, 2012
Which SP would you target in order to sell high on Vargas. Is there a guy that sticks out in your mind that can make a comeback in that trade value range?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Jason – I have no idea at all how people evaluate players, so I can’t tell you. If I could get Lincecum I would feel great. Some might do that in a heartbeat, Vargas has outperformed him to this point, so on paper it makes a lot of sense. At same time, others might laugh in your face and say ‘it’s Tim Lincecum.’ No way to know until you ask.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Brad – Pettitte and Span is a decent deal for Morneau if you have a solid option left to play first base. Ditto for Buehrle/Young for JM.
By Edgar on Jun 4, 2012
Hanley and for James Mcdonald and Yunel Escobar in a five year 24 team keeper league?
i can afford losing Mcdonald and i need offense
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Edgar – So you deal McDonald and Yunel Escobar to get back HanRam in a 24 tm keeper lg?
I’d do it. Get the elite player.
By bryon on Jun 4, 2012
Hey Ray,
Im in a 12 team league and Scherzer got dropped. Would you drop Latos to get Scherzer?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Bryon – Scherzer is an immediate add, yes.
By jon on Jun 4, 2012
Hi Ray – sorry for slightly longish one but I’m trying to secure my mancrush Cliff Lee. Here’s the proposed deal:
I give: Gallardo, Rios, Clippard
I get: Cliff Lee
My OF: CarGo, Victorino, Prado, Swisher, Fowler, Rios (Craig also eligible but he’s at my CI).
DL: Bonifacio
My SP: Verlander, Gallardo, Haren, Strasburg, Wainwright and a streaming spot (currently Paulino)
RP: Kimbrel, Clippard, Bell, Janssen (Fuents on WW)
10-team 6×6 roto w/ QS, W, K/9, AVG, OPS
Given the circumstances, make the deal? These are the kinds of deals I really like to make in 10-team but sometimes I give up too much. What are your thoughts?
thanks a bunch
By Edgar on Jun 4, 2012
i got offered porcello moustakas and stephen drew for hanley?
By Jon on Jun 4, 2012
Ray,
Who do you think are better options the rest of the way?
Walker or Beckham at second and Avila, Montero, Pierzynski or Ellis at catcher? I’ve been holding steady with Walker and mostly Avila until his recent injury, but the rest of these guys are available for pick up.
Thanks,
Jonathan
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Jon – You dont have to worry about losing too much talent in a 10 teamer, and I’m a huge fan of Lee, but this is way too much for me to give up. Clippard is one of the best RPs around, and he’s getting saves. Rios isn’t great, but he’s been on fire last two weeks hitting .340 with four homers, 13 RBI, 12 RBIs and 2 SBs. Gallardo isn’t Lee, but he’s a borderline SP1, or an SP2 at worst in your league.
I could – could – go two guys of the three, but no way would I go all three.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 4, 2012
Edgar – i got offered porcello moustakas and stephen drew for hanley?
There’s one elite player, and its the one you are trading. I like Drew, but still uncertain when he will be back, and how he will perform is up in the air. Porcello is useless. Moose is solid youngster having a good start to the year, but this just isn’t worth it. Plus, you would have to drop two others players from your roster as well. Terrible deal for you.
By Ryan on Jun 4, 2012
Drop Latos for Jarrod Parker?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
Jon – Walker at second. Beckham hot last 10 days, but he’s been so blah for the last two years.
Which Montero?
At this point, tough to not say Ellis, though I also do’nt think he has any chance to keep up his current pace.
See – http://sulia.com/source/S-232001/
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
Ryan – Great night tonight by Parker, and other than one start he has been really impressive. Still, I’d like to think you could drop another player to add Parker than Latos, who I still have hopes for the ROTW.
By Derek on Jun 5, 2012
Hey ray, have the option going forward with either swisher or cespedes, 8×8 league, BA,H,BB,Strikeouts,HR,RBI,SB,R. Who do you believe has more value going forward ?, thanks
By John on Jun 5, 2012
Ray:
I was offered Maybin and Cobb for Daniel Hudson. I am 2nd to last in steals but have Crisp, Victorino in the OF (and Kemp on DL)I am using Ryan Roberts in my utility spot until Kemp comes back. Should I grab Maybin?
By brad on Jun 5, 2012
do you like morales and riveria fro ichiro and ogando i would be getting the 2 hitters.
By Johnny T on Jun 5, 2012
Hey Ray, not sure how you do all that you do with this site and the radio show, but its a gift.
I have Anthony Bass and was wondering if I should drop him for Brain Matusz or Drew Hutchison? 12 team H2H league.
Johnny T.
By Nate on Jun 5, 2012
Hey Ray,
Great job on the radio and BBG. Can you rank these guys for the ROS? I don’t have any real needs, just looking to get the most value going foward. 12 team H2H
Rios, Dunn, Chris Young, Utley
Thanks
By JC on Jun 5, 2012
Ray, I got offered Adam Dunn for Anibal Sanchez. As my team stands, I think Sanchez is too much to give up for Dunn as he’s one of my better SPs. However, I really need more from 1B so I countered with Sanchez and Micheal Young for Tim Hudson and Adam Dunn. Does that sound fair or does it favor one side or the other? Thanks man!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
Derek – Very equal players at this point. Only main difference is that Swisher isn’t going to steal any bases. Since this league adds walks, that balances things a bit. I’d go with Swisher, but it’s awfully close. Nod to history.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
John – I like the deal straight up. However, Maybin/Crisp in your OF will leave you woefully thin in HR/RBI. Can you make that up in other spots? If you cant, you’ll have to pass.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
Brad – Are you talking about Juan Rivera? He’s pretty darn useless. Morales hit two homers last night, but Ichiro/Ogando still a slightly better duo.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
Johnny T – I do what I can amigo. I’m one busy beaver, no doubt about it.
I’d hold Bass over the other two arms you mentioned. The near K per inning mark, and the 50 percent groundball rate, plus the home ball park, are enough.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
Nate – Thanks for the support. I appreciate it.
I like the order you have them listed in actually.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
JC – Anibal Sanchez and Micheal Young for Tim Hudson and Adam Dunn.
I’d rather have the duo you’re giving up. Big fan of Hudson, but he doesn’t have the Ks. Big fan of Dunn, but he’s an AVG killer. If you’re going to do this deal, it’s better to do the 1-for-1.
By JC on Jun 5, 2012
Sorry Ray, I should have specified that this is a H2H points league, so Ks and AVG aren’t really a factor. As of today, Dunn has 176 pts, Hudson 84, Young 127 and Sanchez 158. Does that change anything?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 5, 2012
JC – It may be a points lg, but that doesn’t change much. Sanchez still a better option than Hudson.It’s hard to think Dunn will continue on his 50 HR pace, and Young should improve closing the game there. It’s pretty even.