On the Hill
June 11th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
It’s Monday and I’m writing this report from the FSTA Conference in San Francisco. Don’t believe any of the reports of late night gallivanting… OK, maybe you can believe some of them. Regardless how many Vodka and Red Bull’s I pulled back on last night, there’s still plenty going on in the world of baseball that deserves my, and your, attention.
When does a demotion to the minor leagues mean a guy has gained value? When that player is a pitcher who is relieving but being looked at to join the starting rotation. That’s the situation with Andrew Cashner. A middle reliever for the Padres, he’s been sent down to stretch out his arm as the club has made the decision that they need a starter who isn’t 39 years old (have you seen some of the garbage that the Padres have been running out there this year?). Cashner was hitting 100 mph in his first start of the year against the Brewers (he lasted just 2.1 innings), and he could be back by the end of the month.
R.A. Dickey has been amazing since the start of the 2010 season. In that time Dickey has taken the hill 72 times leading to a 2.97 ERA for the Mets. How impressive is that number? Among NL hurlers who have tossed 400-innings since the start of the ’10 season, Dickey’s ERA is the 6th best mark in the NL – sixth. That mark is even lower this year at 2.44 as Dickey’s knuckler is simply nearly unhittable right now. Dickey has won nine games on the year including each of his last seven decisions and he’s picked up a win in each of his last four games. In those four contests he’s gone at least seven innings each time, has allowed a total of one run, and he’s working on a 24.2 inning scoreless streak. Most amazing of all? How about the fact that he’s racked up at least eight Ks in each of his last five outings and 78 in 81 innings on the year. Knuckle ballers just aren’t supposed to be able to do that. Truly impressed am I.
Felix Hernandez (back) will take the hill Tuesday for the Mariners after missing his last turn though the rotation. After allowing nine runs in his last two outings, an at least 10 hits in three of his last five starts, King Felix has the look of a guy who has been struggling with health for a while. Still, he has 81 Ks in 81.2 innings, and his 3.42 ERA and 1.26 WHIP aren’t awful by any means given his recent slump.
Daisuke Matsuzaka won 18 games with a 2.90 ERA. Since then, he’s been worse than replacement level, just look at the numbers: 16-16, 5.08 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.73 K/BB. He’s back with the Red Sox, and he did have eight Ks in five innings, but he’s got a ton of proving to do before I’d suggest anyone in a 10 or 12 team mixed league looked his way.
Kevin Millwood combined with five other Mariners pitchers to toss the 10th combined no-hitter in big league history last Friday. Why didn’t Millwood finish the game? He injured his groin making warmup tosses before the 7th inning. Good news out of Seattle in that Millwood might be able to make his next start an it’s also not likely that he will need a stint on the DL. Somehow Millwood has allowed a total of six earned runs in his last six outings. I smell a sell high opportunity here – don’t you?
Chris Sale lowered his ERA to 2.05 after eight shutout innings Saturday. He also lowered his WHIP to 0.92 for the Pale Hoes. Everyone knows how great he has been this year, but he’s been out of control of late. In his last five starts, all wins, Sale has allowed four runs. He’s also walked just seven batters while punching out 43 batters in 36.2 innings. Oh yeah, he’s also gone at least seven innings in 4-straight outings. All of this just makes that soap opera week with him being hurt, being demoted to the pen, being named the closer, and then being placed back in the rotation even more vexing. Here’s an interesting question to ponder – could a starting pitcher be sent to the bullpen and then win the Cy Young award in the same season? If Sale keeps up this pace we just might find out.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Andrew Cashner, Chris Sale, Dai8suke Matsuzaka, Felix Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, R.A.Dickey
By Allen on Jun 11, 2012
Ray…Dustin Pedroia and jarrod Parker for Josh Johnson and Jason Kipnis. Worried about Pedroia’s thumb issue. What side ya got?
By Mark on Jun 11, 2012
Ray – In a 5×5 roto I need saves but believe Fuentes is going out the door. Would you drop Fuentes for: Ryan Cook, Sean Marshall, Robbie Ross, or Sergio Romo? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 11, 2012
Mark – did I see this question on twitter too?
Cook if your goal is saves, though Balfour is big competition. Romo is a better skilled pitcher, but not very close to saves unless Casilla is hurt.
By Jeremy on Jun 11, 2012
Hey Ray, do you have any guesstimate as to when Anthony Rizzo will get called up? Also, will Danny Hultzen get called up of Beaven continues to struggle?
By Scott on Jun 11, 2012
11 team AL only league. I was offered Ortiz for Sale. I need the batting help but would be giving up a major arm. The waiver wire is thin and neither player can be replaced there. Ortiz would replace a Johnny Gomes caliber player in my line up, while Sale would be replaced by a middle reliever or risky call-up starters. I’m leaning toward keeping Sale. What do you think?
By Jash on Jun 11, 2012
Just like you, I have been very impressed by Dickey’s success this season. But do you believe he can sustain it for a whole season? The knuckleball is such an unpredictable pitch that I just refuse to believe that Dickey can keep it up for the entire season (heh heh, sorry, couldn’t help myself). If he pitches on an extra windy day or if the knuckler just isn’t moving particularly well on a given day, we could see him revert to to the Dickey of old. Remember that he went through stretches of dominance last year -albeit not as impressive as this run – but still had his rough patches. So do you feel that this could be a step forward for Dickey, or just an impressive stretch of outings?
By Fish on Jun 12, 2012
Ray, is Hamels still a good trade target in my NL only league if we lose guys that get traded to the AL? Hamels is $28. If he gets traded for prospects I’ll only have the option of picking up the best one for $28. I’m considering giving up a cheap Waino for him, but it will kill me if he goes to the AL. Personally, since they only have one more year on Halladay deal and Blanton’s $8.5MM comes off after this season, I think Phils are crazy if they don’t sign him long term.
By John on Jun 12, 2012
Ray:
I was offered Mike Napoli, Jeter, Ryan Roberts and Drew Storen for
Russel Martin, Asdrubal Cabrera and ARAM
What you think?
(12 team mixed league. WE start 2 players at each infield spot, 4 OF and 1 DH).
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2012
Jeremy – Rizzo was hurt right after you sent this question. Still awaiting word on his leg situation, but it could be something that sidelines him.
Hutlzen has only 70 innings above A ball, and though his K rate is impressive, he’s still walking about four guys per nine innings. Bright future, but we may still not see him until after the All Star break.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2012
Scott – If you need a bat, Sale to get Ortiz is a solid deal. Since he’s replacing someone like Gomes, hard to say no, though I’d prefer to get a player versus a guy who is limited to DH if I was dealing the hottest pitcher in the league. I’d aim for a bigger return.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2012
Jash – There is no way anyone could predict that Dickey will continue the K/9 rate. You just can’t keep that number that high when you use a knuckler. You are also correct that bouts of wildness are likely to happen. I’d bet on a regression, not disappearance though, the ROTW.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2012
Fish – Hamels will NOT be dealt to an AL club. He’s not getting dealt to anyone. Id be shocked if he doesn’t stay in Philly, especially with the concerns now about Halladay’s health.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2012
John - I was offered Mike Napoli, Jeter, Ryan Roberts and Drew Storen for Russel Martin, Asdrubal Cabrera and ARAM
Well, first off, like I always say, there is no need to do an 7 player trade. None.
Napoli over Martin = not close
Jeter over Asdrubal = close
Roberts working his way back into more of a full time role and Storen is a total wildcard.
I’d take the trio.
By fred barker on Jul 23, 2012
ray, thought you might be interested in some late night reading. been applying full-bore streaming all season. might find the results interesting:
http://razzball.com/streaming-pitchers-for-fantasy-baseball-magically-predictable/
http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=28434