NFL: It’s Too Early, But…
June 13th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
If you listen to my radio show on Sirius 210 and XM 87 each day (Monday-Friday from 5-8 PM EDT), you know my thoughts on talking fantasy football in June (let’s just say I think it’s premature). Given that fact you’re probably wondering why there is a picture of Chris Johnson adorning my article today. I’m all about transparency at BaseballGuys, and one of the ways that I accomplish that is by always being open with you about the teams that I draft (you can find my review of the expert baseball leagues I participated in this year in the Fantasy U section). Therefore, I’m going to take a one day diversion from baseball to break down my FSTA Experts Draft for the NFL that was completed Monday night in San Francisco. I’ll return to baseball tomorrow in my mailbag article, and you can always follow me on Twitter for the rest of today for your baseball fix.
Teams: 14 (I had the 7th selection)
Rosters: 1 Quarterback , 2 Running Backs , 3 Wide Receivers , 1 Tight End, 1 Flex Player (RB, WR or TE) , 1 Kicker , 1 Team Defense/Specials Team, (6 reserves)
League Rules
Passing: 1 point for 30 yards. 3 points for TD. (-1) for fumbles/interceptions.
Rushing: 1 point for 10 yards. 6 points for TD. (-1) for fumble
Receiving (PPR): 1 point for 10 yards. 0.5 points for RB. 1 point for WR/TE. (-1) for fumbles.
The most obvious oddity in this scoring system, and why wouldn’t it be odd given that there simply isn’t any standardized setup in fantasy football (ugh) is that passers are really devalued here since most leagues award six points for passing touchdowns and all give at least four points. There is also the fact that yardage is dinged too (most leagues are one point per 25 yards with many giving one point for 20 yards). You all know I like to wait on quarterbacks anyway, but this setup just made that easier.
The second point is that runners only get half a point for receptions versus a full point for wide receivers and tight ends.
With that, here are some thoughts from the draft.
QUARTERBACKS
Four QBs were taken in the second round which seems a little heavy to me given the scoring system. Tony Romo and Philip Rivers in the 5th round seem like strong values. Peyton Manning went before Eli Manning as well. At this point hasn’t the younger brother surpasses the elder statesman?
RUNNING BACKS
I love Darren McFadden, and per game he is dynamite, but #5 overall is just too early. I feel the same way about Marshawn Lynch at #9. MJD would be a top-5 selection in every draft if it was clear that he wouldn’t be a holdout concern (he slipped to #8 here). Trent Richardson might be a dynamically skilled player but I’m not taking a rookie runner in the first round (#13 overall).
WIDE RECEIVERS
In a PPR setup, seems like there are a strong group of receivers available at the top of the draft. Wait past the middle of the draft though and you start taking a lot of shots on talent that lacks the numbers, or vets with the numbers who may be on the downside of their careers.
TIGHT ENDS
Jimmy Graham went off the board one pick after Ron Gronkowski in the second round. After the two elite ends were taken another didn’t go for 34 selections.
MY TEAM
QB: Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer
RB: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Williams, Isaiah Pead
WR: Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin, Denarius Moore, Titus Young, Alshon Jeffery
TE: Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett
K: Alex Henery
DEF: Seattle Seahawks
I waited on quarterbacks an ended up with a solid duo in a 14 team league.
CJ2K and AD. If Peterson is healthy in Week 1, and CJ rebounds just slightly from last year, this duo could lead me to a championship.
I’ve got Marshall who is a lock for 80 receptions and 1,000, and then it’s an uber talented group of four youngsters behind him. I think Maclin has legit top-15 WR potential, and Moore could be the breakout star at WR this year.
It was Vernon Davis or Finley when I drafted my end and I avoided being a homer and chose the Packers tight end who is making all kinds of proclamations that he is going to go off this year.
K/DEF = Oh yeah, we have to roster those two dong we?
For the results of the entire draft click on the RT Sports Link to the event, and for a review of some of the numbers posted by the elite of the game check out Fleaflicker.
FINALLY… for more on the weekend events at the FSTA give a read to my diary of the weekend in How Good AM I & Lil’ Kim.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adrian Peterson, Alex Henery, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Carson Palmer, Chris Johnson, Daniel Thomas, Denarius Moore, FSTA DRAFT, Isaiah Pead, Jay Cutler, Jeremy Maclin, Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett, NFL, Ryan Williams, Seattle Seahawks, Titus Young
By Polka on Jun 13, 2012
solid team Ray, we like many of the same plays here…of course it bases on what’s available too…good job, listened to this at work and was and always is entertaining!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2012
Polka – Thanks for the note. I wonder… do you like the guys because I do, or do I because you do?
By Bigs on Jun 13, 2012
Whats up Ray ? I have Tulo and just saw that he reinjured his groin.The waiver wire is decimated. Would you recommend a guy like Scutaro , or Plouffe. I have been using alexi ramirez. Thanks
By greg on Jun 13, 2012
Hi Ray – can I get a quick read on this trade from ya when you get a chance?
I give: Waino, Prado, Kimbrel, Rios
I get: JUpton, Cliff Lee, Addy Reed
We’re 10-team Roto w/ QS, W, K/9, AVG, OPS in addition to the usual. I have Kimbrel, Bell, Clippard, Janssen as RPs. OF is: Cargo, Victorino, Swisher, Craig, Fowler, Rios. If I do it, I’d pick up Middlebrooks or Reynolds to replace Prado until Bonifacio comes off the DL.
Get the two “best” players here and hope for the best with JUpton? I love Kimbrel obviously but I’ve been patchworking RPs all year and feel like I can continue to do so.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2012
Bigs – It doesn’t sound like Tulo had a major setback, but it was a tweak nonetheless. Alexi is the guy long term for me, but if you’re talking about short term how could you not go with Plouffe who is literally the #1 hitting SS in baseball the past two weeks?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2012
Greg – I give: Waino, Prado, Kimbrel, Rios I get: JUpton, Cliff Lee, Addy Reed, Mark Reynolds
Lee > Waino
Kimbrel > Reed
JUp > Prado
Rios > Reynolds
You can do the deal as you are getting the two best players. Still, not a slam dunk.
By Mark on Jun 14, 2012
Ray – Who do you like in a 5×5 ROTW?
LaHair
Plouffe
Carlos Lee
Thanks for all you do!
By Joe M on Jun 14, 2012
Really like it for a 14 team, Risky Rb’s but tremendous ceilings. Besides, seems almost impossible to predict RB’s, they’re about as consistent as MLB closers.
Nice qb’s considering you waited but I don’t have much faith in Palmer.
Receivers I think are money.
Imho, Serious potential and really well rounded for a 14 team.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 14, 2012
Mark – My thoughts on Plouffe: http://baseballguys.com/2012/06/14/mailbag-june14-2012/
Thoughts on LaHair: http://fantasyalarm.com/rounding-the-bases-how-good-am-i-and-lil-kim/
Lee: Should be back Sunday.
I’d rank them – Lee, Plouffe (multi position elig), LaHair
By Ray Flowers on Jun 14, 2012
Joe M – Yep, RBs are a total disaster this year with shared backfields and injuries. IF AD is healthy for Wk 1… I really like this squad.
By Polka on Jun 14, 2012
Those are guys I have better feelings on this year.. alot of my idiot friends are down on CJ, but he is way to talented to suck like last year…Hold out’s kill that player almost every year. Titans line isn’t bad, Locker will be way more mobil then Statue Hasselback also…the WR’s are solid, especially the top two- they are top 10 ceiling each if all falls right, Finley is a beat, just eating at a table with 12 other kids.
I’m a QB waiter too, and Cutler would do it for me…D. Moore is alomost a breakout but no a secret anymore…Ive been folling you since FANball days and have respected your opinion on many things….
By Ray Flowers on Jun 14, 2012
Polka – Glad you’ve followed since the Fanball days… I miss all the magazines we used to throw out there…