Mailbag: June28, 2012
June 28th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
It’s Thursday, so it’s time to answer the questions you’ve sent me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Mike Stanton for Bryce Harper/Trevor Plouffe/Andre Ethier?
@wekings007
Reality check everyone. As great as Stanton is and will one day be, he’s merely an impressive power hitter right now. The best hitter on the planet in May, he’s been pretty darn blah the other two months of the season. In the end he’s on pace to hit .274 with 35 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs. Those are impressive totals indeed, but they are not the jump off the page I’m going to win a fantasy championship because of them numbers. Did you listen when I told you to back down from expectations before the season started?
I know that Ethier injured his left oblique Wednesday, and that there is no clear cur answer as to how much time he is going to miss throwing his value up in the air, but do you know what his current pace is for the Dodgers? How about 291 with 20 homers, 115 RBI and 75 runs. Is that really that far off of Stanton’s pace? Harper has slowed a bit but he’s still hitting .281 with a .841 OPS and a pace that would lead to a 20/20 season over a full slate of games.
Plouffe is the wild card. Over his last 10 games he has hit .243 with one homer, a far cry from the insane pace he set early in the month when he blasted nine homers with 16 RBI in 12 games. The power is legit, he’s gone deep 25 times in 512 career at-bats, but he’s also hit .232 with a mere .299 OBP – not exactly the stuff of legend. Still, he qualifies at shortstop and third in all league, and in most he’s also eligible in the outfield and possibly even second base.
If Ethier was healthy this would be a killer deal. Even with him injured it’s certainly not an awful haul, even though Stanton is the most exciting player in the group. I think the question becomes which two players would you need to drop since you’re adding three players and only sending one away? Add in those two players and the deal likely won’t make sense.
Where is Wil Myers going to play if KC promotes him? How long before promotion?
@The_Real_Ray_D
I get this question all the time, and here is my standard answer.
Alex Gordon will be playing everyday in the outfield.
Jeff Francoeur, unless he is traded (the club is probably hoping they can move Frenchie), will be playing everyday in the outfield.
Lorenzo Cain, slated to start in CF this year before injuries struck (remember when he was killing it in the preseason leading to people drafting him as one of the potential breakout starts of 2012?), is closing in on a return to the big leagues as his rehab work (hip issue) was shifted to Triple-A this week.
Billy Butler is the DH and Eric Hosmer is the first baseman.
Where can Myers fit in there? He can’t is the answer. The Royals will need to trade Francoeur, or Cain will have to stall out in his recovery to give the power hitting Myers a chance to play everyday in the bigs (Myers is killing it hitting .325 with 35 homers and 65 RBI in 75 minor league games this year). As I wrote last November in my AFL – 2011 Review column, the guy is gonna be a star – we’re just going to have to wait a bit longer.
Any chance Logan Morrison will have a decent second half?
@peterjpappas
After hitting 23 homers with 72 RBIs last year there was some hope that LoMo would take his game to the next level this season as a prime time run producing force. He hasn’t. His average is down .020 points to .227 and his OBP has dropped to .305 (career .340). He’s on pace for about 18 homers and 55 RBI. He’s also walking less than he did in either of his two previous seasons. Toss in a sickly .241 BABIP, some .041 points below his career rate, and there really isn’t much to get excited about here at all. I can’t envision a player of his skill set being this bad all year long, but there’s nothing going on here that screams to me that LoMo is going to be a significant player in the fantasy game the ROTW.
Jon Lester and Michael Bourn for Justin Verlander?
@franksyanks23
Lester has a 5-5 record, 4.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. After years of upper echelon work those are terribly disappointing numbers. Still, he’s tossed 5-straight “quality starts” as he slowly seems to be rounding into form. Oddly, Lester has lost more than a batter off his K/9 rate while also dropping a batter off his BB/9 rate. The result us a 2.93 K/BB ratio that would actually be a three year best if you can believe it. He’s also produced a 1.76 GB/FB ratio that is better than his 1.44 career rate. The real issue is that his he’s been getting hit hard. Currently his line drive rate is 23.3 percent, an unheard of level for a guy with a 19 percent career mark that has kept that mark under 21 percent each of the past four years. I’d expect his effort to continue to improve.
Bourn has been an elite performer — just like I said he would be. Oddly though, he’s accomplished it in a bit different way that was expected. After hitting seven homers the past three years he has gone deep seven times this season. Clearly this is one of those random things that just happens sometimes (don’t expect him to go deep 15 times this year). However, after 3-straight years of at least 52 steals he has “only” 20 thefts this year. He’s still on pace for a fifth straight effort of 40-steals, but it would be nice to see a few more stolen bases. Still, you can’t complain when Bourn is hitting .309 with 50 runs scored in 74 games.
Verlander is as good as it gets. His ERA is up a tenth from last year to 2.52, his WHIP is up less than a tenth to 0.97, and his K/9 rate is down three tenths to 8.64. Wow, he’s really fallen off. He’s the pinnacle of the elite. Period.
The deal is pretty fair for both sides. Most people don’t want to give up the “best player” in a deal, but the return here is significant – an elite outfielder and a solid hurler who is slowly rounding into form.
I was offered Chase Utley or Billy Butler for Derek Jeter? I have Jose Reyes to play SS and Allen Craig to play 2B.
@NY_G123
Pull the breaks on the hype train. Utley returned to action, and homered in his first game, but there is NO way you can take him for Jeter straight up, even if you do have Reyes to fill in at shortstop. None. Utley missed nearly the first three months of the season with knee issues, this coming on the heels of seasons of 115 and 103 games played. You know the Phillies aren’t going to play him every day the rest of the way either (he’s resting Thursday). I’m all for taking a shot on Utley because I think he will still be an effective hitter when on the field, but you’d be better off pouring soap in your eye and trying to read a smutty novel than doing this deal.
The Butler offer does make sense. Though everyone always likes to put the guy down, or just flat out overlook him for some reason, Butler is a hell of a hitter. Not only is he hitting .297, he’s hit at least .291 each of the past three years, he’s also on pace for a career best in the homer category with 15 through 72 games (his previous best is 21 homers). I don’t think he’ll get to 30 homers, it’s not likely that he’ll be able to keep his 22.1 percent HR/F rate given that it’s double his career rate of 11 percent, but that doesn’t mean a .300-25-100 season can be ruled out for the Royals’ hitter.
In this situation, with Reyes ready to take over at short, I’d take Butler in the deal. Jeter has solid all-around numbers (.305-7-25-40-6) but he’s had only 12 RBI and hit a mere .269 over his last 50 games played after his tremendous start to the year.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
Tags: Billy Butler, Bryce Harper, Chase Ultey, Derek Jeter, Jeff Francoeur, Logan Morrison, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Stanton, Trevor Plouffe, Wil Myers
By Steve on Jun 28, 2012
Hey Ray. Was just offered Bautista for Trout and Arod. Id play Lawrie at 3b and Bautista in OF. Can i possibly turn this down? Can Trout keep this up? Lol
By Ray Flowers on Jun 28, 2012
Steve – Was just offered Bautista for Trout and Arod.
As great as Bautista has been the past month – 13 HR, 28 RBI – would it shock you to learn that Trout was still a better fantasy performer? Trout has hit .393 wiht 13 steals and 26 runs scored (Bautista has hit just .267). In fact, the duo has almost identical fantasy value for the season. Bautista is all power, Trout more avg/sb. What does your team need more?
While giving him his credit, I’m not the biggest Bautista fan out there. I’d do a Bautista for Trout deal, but I don’t like the idea of also having to give Arod Up. He hasn’t been great, but he still has a shot at being a top-10 3B.
By Steve on Jun 28, 2012
Thanks Ray. Appreciate the advice as always. Love your sirius show and this site. I am close to most teams in power and rbi and could probably catch up without dealing trout but just the idea of having Fielder Kinsler Braun and Bautista on the same team is mouth watering. Lol. Obviously its a 10 teamer. If i make this deal i have Wieters, Fielder. Desmond. Kinsler. Lawrie in infield. Outfield would be Braun Bautista and Craig. 2 utilities would be Hosmer and Melky Cabrera. As of now i have to bench one of them every night
By Chris on Jun 28, 2012
Ray,
I am in a yahoo 12 team 5X5 with 13 keepers this year. And I am in first place with a 20+ game lead on 6th (6th gets the playoffs).
I have been offered Jesus Montero/Longoria/Billingsley for Mauer/Hamels.
I have good pitching – McDonald, Dickey, Zimmerman and Harens at the top. Catcher I also have Ruiz. 3B I have Prado and Lowrie to cover until Longo gets back.
My other hitters are Pujols, Pedroia, Asdrubal Cabrera, Bruce, Granderson, Pence, Span, Crisp, Beckham.
Other starters are Kendrick, Capuano, Westbrook. I have Pettite, Lewis and Lilly on the DL.
Does this deal make sense? I am thinking so but I am thinking Hamels is the stud in the deal and not sure I want to deal him but Longo is young, even if injured but it’s a keeper league and Jesus has loads of potential.
Thanks.
By Robert on Jun 28, 2012
Hey Ray…been offered Vogelsong (of possibly Shields) for my Joe Nathan…thoughts? I have Soriano, Myers, and Kenley at closer as well. My SPs are Price, Sanchez, Romero, Capuano, Niese, McDonald, and Lincecum. I’m in a 12-team, H2H with a 26-man rosters. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 28, 2012
Chirs - I have been offered Jesus Montero/Longoria/Billingsley for Mauer/Hamels.
No update on Longo. Looks like he will be out through at least ASB.
Getting Longo and Jesus in a keeper lg is big though.
On flip side though, Mauer/Hamels are just as high on keeper lists.
I’d stand pat.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 28, 2012
Robert – In a 12 tm lg, Soriano/Myers/Jansen/Nathan is too much of a good thing. Moving one is fine.
Your SPs are solid though. If you deal a closer, do you really need another SP?
If so, I’d target Shields.
By Chrissy on Jun 28, 2012
Hello Ray!
12 team Roto keeper league we start 2 Catchers and I have Y.Molina, M.Montero and S.Perez. Was offered J. Upton for Montero. My outfield consists on Stanton, Cargo, Braun, BJ Upton, and A.Gordan. Should I consider this trade? As always thank you for your time and advice!!!
Chrissy
By Ray Flowers on Jun 28, 2012
Chrissy – Do the deal. I’m a big fan of Montero, but JUP still owns that elite talent. Well worth taking the shot on the talent.
By Rusty on Jun 28, 2012
Hi Ray-
Thanks for all the good info in the back to back vids this week! I’ve got a guy on my DL who seems to have fallen off the face of the earth…perhaps you might know if Theodore Roosevelt Lilly III is still going to make an appearance in say the next 60 days.
I probably would have dropped him by now, but the waivers is scarce; Garrett Richards and Mike Leake appear to be the best ones out there. 12tm h2h Do you think it’s time to give up on Lilly? or maybe way past time, lol
Thanks Ray; You da man
By Matt w on Jun 29, 2012
Ray, Do you think trading hamilton for bautista is a fair trade? Jose has been hot lately and hamilton has not. Hamilton has more doubles and a better batting average, which we use in my league, but it seems like bautista will hit more home runs and RBIs. If hamilton satys healthy do you think he can hit more hr’s and RBIs than bautista and do you think its a fair trade and could I possibly get more for him? Sorry about all the questions. Thanks.
By Nate on Jun 29, 2012
Hey Ray,
I’m looking forward to your weekend starts. Always a good read.
I am looking to improve pitching. 12 team h2h. My Hamilton and Swisher for his Hamels and AGon. Am I giving up too much?
By Mark on Jun 29, 2012
Ray – In a 5×5 12 team league would you drop Latos for Wandy? Thanks for all of your help!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2012
Rusty – Lilly has totally disappeared, agreed. He started playing catch last week, and there is no real damage to his shoulder. Best guess is sometime after the ASB, but I dont know.
Leake is a solid option. He’s pitched very well in June. He’s no great shakes, but with Lilly still totally uncertain you could make the move. If Lilly is on your DL spot, of course continue to hold.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2012
Matt W – I broke down Bautista in detail here (if you can see it):
http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showArticle.htm?id=15465
Bautista is a .250 hitter. Hamilton a .300 hitter.
Bautista likely to have more power cause he is a better bet to stay healthy.
At same time, zero chance Bautista keeps hitting like he has in June, just like Hamilton wasn’t going to keep up his early season pace either.
You can get Bautista, dual position elig nice, and he is slightly more stable, but Hamilton still the upside play.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2012
Nate – Hamilton and Swisher for his Hamels and AGon.
Not awful deal at all if you need pitching. With how good Hamilton has been, it would be nice to see that hitter be someone who wasnt once great but merely blah right now (AGone). Still, OK to do.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2012
Mark – Latos for Wandy?
I’d go with Wandy right now instead of Latos… but it’s close. Latos is still a solid buy at this point, he’s trending and has gotten better as the season wears on before, and to be honest, a wee bit more K action that Wandy.
By Trophyhunter on Jun 29, 2012
I traded Young-Tex and J.Peavy-CWS, for Votto-Cin
Who to drop from the lineup?
Napoli-c
Pujols-1b
Kinler-2b
Reyes-ss
Ramiriz-3b
Bautista-of
Hamilton-of
Beltran-of
Dunn-util
It’s a weekly league with up to a max 6 keepers
Got to drop a player to get Votto in, but all
these positions required. Thanks.T.H.
By Trophyhunter on Jun 29, 2012
Thinking of trading Dunn after replacing him in
lineup with Votto. How good a pitcher, draft pick
or infielder or outfielder do ya think he is worth,in weekly up to 6 keeper 12 team league.
7 starting pitcher’s 4SP’s,1P, 2RP’s.
2 DL spot’s and 21 total active player’s with
A.Ellis-LAD c on bench. Thank’s T.H.
By Andrew on Jun 29, 2012
Ray,
12-team H-to-H
Rank these guys the rest of way? need 1 1B
LaRoche, Rizzo, C. Davis, Fowler, Craig, Rasmus, Joyce
and someone just dropped Latos…ok with dropping Liriano to pick him up??
Thanks Ray!
Andrew
By Trophyhunter on Jun 30, 2012
Andrew needs 1b, I would say Joyce,Craig,LaRoche,C.Davis,Rizzo,Rasmus,Fowler.
Drop Lariano for Latos now!
Just trying to help out, I’m Commish of 3 12team
leagues and all teams leaders in leagues.
G.L. Trophyhunter.
By jeff on Jun 30, 2012
Hey there Ray,
I am in a 14 team roto, keeper league. I am currently in 3rd place and I am looking towards next year while still in the hunt this year.
My question is would you offer Ortiz for Trout? If I can get Trout next year he will cost me a 17th round pick and I all ready know that I can’t keep Ortiz next year.
By Andrew on Jun 30, 2012
I’m not interested in Kyle elfrinks advice…..lol
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2012
Trophyhunter – Not a bad deal at all to get Votto. Good work.
I’d remove Dunn. He’s all power and that average is a killer, so get the Votto Avg. in your lineup to balance that out.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2012
Trophyhunter – I agree with your idea of moving Dunn given your addition of Votto.
No way for me to know about draft picks, but I’d said he’d be worth something like a 1-3 rounder.
No way for me to know on trade front either. Basically, I’d be looking for a top-30 SP, and then a top-7 or so position player.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2012
Andrew – I will be releasing, unless something happens I dont expect, my Rest of The Way (ROTW) Rankings at some point in the coming week.
Until then, you’re just going to have to go with Trophyhunters advice.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2012
Andrew – I like the Kyle Elfink mention –
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2012
Jeff – In a keeper league I would deal Ortiz to get Trout in a millisecond. On the flipside I would turn down such an offer in a nanosecond. Only an idiot would take Ortiz over Trout, but if you can pull it off it’s a huge win for you.
By Trophyhunter on Jun 30, 2012
Thanks Ray, the response you gave for Dunn is about what I had in mind. I’ll probably go for
more pitching. Especially because it’s a weekly.
Took awhile in this lifetime league to put those
hitters together. Now I can clearly see I need a
Trout and Harper update. That will be a challenge! GL. Trophyhunter.
By Andrew on Jun 30, 2012
Yeah, on the Drive, I think u should start calling Kyle by his alias- trophyhunter lol….come see my yahoo fantasy profile!
By Joel on Jul 1, 2012
Ray: in my keeper league, I’ve been offered Jay Bruce (1 year keeper) and middlebrooks (5 year) for my Bryce harper (5 year). What do u think? i already have Nellie Cruz and Jered Weaver as 1 years, and can only keep 1 in that category. So, it boils down to how much better is Harper than Middlebrooks for the next 5 years, and how much better is Bruce than those other guys? THANKS!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 1, 2012
Joel – Pass. Harper is a better hitter than Middlebrooks, and 3-4-5 yrs from now, it will be evident with Harper.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Harper develops into a hitter very similar to Bruce, with a better average and a few more steals, and since you can keep him for four more years over Bruce, hold on to Harper.