Daily Joust – Wk 15: Did We Learn Anything?
July 16th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.
GAINERS OF THE WEEK
Bronson Arroyo (+123, $357K in DailyJoust Salary)
Arroyo is one of those guys that you begrudgingly draft, and then more times than not he does something to help you. Though just 4-5 on the season, he’s been pretty solid this year, especially of late. Over his last two starts he’s allowed two runs in 15 innings, and he’s thrown five quality starts in his last six trips to the hill. His 6.13 K/9 rate is a four year best, and his 1.49 BB/9 rate would be a career best mark,m so it’s fair to ponder how long he will be able to keep his current pace up.
Michael Fiers (+64, $411K)
Since being inserted into the Brewers rotation all this guy has done is have success. In eight appearances this season he’s posted a 2.31 ERA, has a 1.07 WHIP, has a better than 5:1 K/BB ratio, and has 50 Ks in 46.2 innings. Yeah, he’s been that dominating if you hadn’t noticed (he’s only owned in 14 percent of Fleaflicker leagues). Over his last five starts he has allowed three runs, and over his last three outings he’s struck out 26 batters. The only thing keeping him from being a national success story is that 3-3 record, but you can’t blame him for that since he’s pitching about as well as anyone in the game.
Jeff Karstens (+74, $342)
After missing two months due to injury, Karstens is back to getting batters out. Last year he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. This year in six starts he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Even better, over his last two starts, both victories, he has allowed two earned runs in 15 innings while, shockingly, piling up 15 Ks. That’s all well and good, but let’s keep it real here. Karstens really isn’t a 3.38 ERA type of guy. His career K-rate is below the league average, and his 6.75 mark this season is a batter an a half above his mark the last two seasons. He’s not likely to hold on to that. He’s also been hit pretty hard despite the outward appearance, and his 2.5 percent HR/F is literally a quarter of normal. Parlay his solid numbers into a better arm if you can.
Jason Vargas (+109, $379)
Through 19 starts Vargas has a 1.15 WHIP. Pretty dang good. He’s also been able to lower his ERA from 4.66 to 4.07 over his last three starts as he’s permitted just four runners to cross the plate. He’s also, and I have no idea how this is possible, posted 22 Ks over his last 23.2 innings. Given that his total of 131 strikeouts last season was a career best it’s pretty obvious that you can’t expect him to continue to punch fellows out at that rate. Solid, but remember that he allowed 23 earned runs in his previous four starts before this nice three game run.
LOSERS OF THE WEEK
Edwin Jackson (-88, $226K)
After being the good Edwin for 2.5 months the evil EJax as returned with a vengeance. The lasttwo time times he’s taken the hill he’s been beat around for 15 hits and four walks leading to 12 earned runs in 8.2 innings. Panic stricken owners are vomiting the world over. Still, let’s pull back from the madness for some perspective. Edwin’s best ERA is 3.62 from 2009. It’s currently 3.73. His best WHIP was 1.26 in 2009. It’s currently 1.13. His career K/9 is 6.69. It’s currently 6.75. His career K/BB ratio is 1.87. It’s currently 2.53 (a career best). His HR/9 mark is 0.98. His career mark is 0.99. I know you don’t want to hear it after the two beatings he just took, but the truth is that his overall numbers put him on pace to have the best season of his career, or at worst, exactly what you should have expected.
Jesus Montero (-20, $50K)
Montero has one hit in his last eight games dropping his average .021 points down to .242. Obviously the youngster is totally lost right now. His future is still very bright, but as I often warn when the discussion roles around to youngsters – their path to success isn’t always linear. Sometimes, there are bumps in the road. If Montero wants to turn his recent slide around he would be wise to start with his control of the strikezone. Currently sporting a 0.22 BB/K mark that is half the big league average, he’d be wise to start working that count a bit better. Of note. On the season he’s hit a mere .203 against righties with four homers in 192 at-bats while he’s murdered lefties to the tune of a .326 average and four homers in just 89 at-bats.
Ervin Santana (-153, $189)
How is this still happening? “This” is all the homers Santana is allowing which are simply tanking his season. A career 1.18 homers allowed per nine innings kinda fella, that number is in the stratosphere this season at 1.74 per nine. Given that massive increase your initial reaction is likely ‘he must be giving up a lot more fly balls this season.’ That’s a fair assumption, but it’s totally wrong. Right now Santana has a 33 percent fly ball rate. That would be the lowest total of his career. Right now Santana has a 48 percent ground ball rate. That would be the highest total of his career. ‘But Ray, that makes no sense. How is he giving up so many homers then?’ The answer is a near doubling of his HR/F mark from 10.3 percent for his career, and never worse than 12.8 percent in a season, to 18.9 percent right now. That number simply has to come down, doesn’t it? He’d also be well served to throw more strikes (his 3.66 BB/9 mark would be his first season over 3.05 since 2007).
Luke Scott (-19, $72K)
One of the streakiest hitters on the planet, Scott has been abysmal for a long while now. How bad? Since June 2nd Scott has a total of five hits. He was hurt for a while, but that’s still just five hits in 55 at-bats (.091). As a result he’s hitting .200 in 220 at-bats for the Rays. Sure he has 11 homers and 42 RBIs, strong totals, but can you really live with that batting average drain in your lineup right now? Don’t worry, he’ll probably have a week where he has 12 hits and four homers soon – it’s just how he rolls.
DAILY CONTEST
Today, and every day, you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.
Tags: Bronson Arroy, Edwin Jackson, Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas, Jeff Karstens, Jesus Montero, Luke Scott, Michael Fiers
By Joe M on Jul 16, 2012
Sorry Ray
Just venting here about something thats really pissing me off.
To the idiots who interview players, please start getting a little more creative with your questions.
How many times can I hear the question asked to Harper, Trout and Rizzo “So how does it feel to be called up to majors?”.. Seriously?? I wish one would say, its terrible, worst thing that ever happened to me..
Same goes for the typical question asked to players during all star break “So, you guys are 5 games out of first place, what does the team plan on doing the rest of the way?”… Hmmmm. We plan on losing as many games as possible.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 16, 2012
Joe M – Yeah, many of their questions do suck. This is how you really interview someone. Check out myself and Kyle Elfrink interviewing Trout, Myers and Decker:
http://baseballguys.com/2011/11/07/afl-2011-review/
I even asked Decker about his pants… lol
By Joe M on Jul 16, 2012
Real nice interviews man..
Lol, I didnt hear anything about Deckers pants.
Rather than “How does it feel to get the call up?”
I liked the question to Trout (but didnt get the answer I hoped for) “When you got your taste last year in the Majors, was there anything that surprised you?” and of course always nice to hear players talk about fantasy sports.
Much better than what ive been seeing and hearing lately, was more like nice conversations rather than the obvious questions that really only have 1 answer.
Thanks for the links, hope you guys get many more interviews in the future.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 16, 2012
Joe M – Dang it – they must have edited it out. I asked him about his baggie pants (no stirrups).
By Bobby on Jul 16, 2012
Hello Ray.
are you concerned with Konerko lack of power after having the wrist procedure? He is hitting Around .220 With 3 hrs since june 1st.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 16, 2012
Bobby – Had similar wrist issue couple of years back, didn’t change much. Maybe it’s part of it, certainly possible. Still HR/F is pretty similar, real issue is more about a drop in his fly ball rate. He’s also 36, so that should be factored in a bit too.
By Andrew on Jul 16, 2012
Ray,
Got an odd football question and wanted your take. Basically you select 2 NFL teams and can use any of their players to make the team. I inherited Washington Titans and chose to keep Tennessee (mostly to have CJ) and now have 2nd pick for remaining teams.
Teams in Draft:
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams
Indianapolis Colts
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
Chicago Bears
Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
New York Jets
I think SD is the obvious pick….if they are not there at #2, who do you like to compliment Tennessee? It’s non-PPR and all QB TDs are 6 pts.
Thanks,
Andrew
By Jesse on Jul 16, 2012
Hey Ray,
I got a trade question for you: 12 team roto redraft league.
I’m currently tied for 1st and have points to gain or could use help in WHIP, K’s, RBI’s and Avg. I could use the the open roster spots to pick up a guy like LaRoche to play the matchups with Micheal Young at 1B.
Trade: Konerko, Morrow, Matt Moore for Votto and Hamels.
My line-up
C- S. Perez / Lucroy (DL)
1B- Konerko
2B- Kinsler
3B- A-rod
SS- Plouffe
OF- Braun
OF- Holliday
OF- Jay Bruce
Util- BJ Upton
BN- Michael Young (would put in 1B if traded Konerko until Votto gets back)
SP-Halladay, CC, Kuroda, Beckett, M. Moore, Romero, Bauer, Morrow (DL)
RP-Broxton, Frieri, Janssen, Parnell, Cishek
Let me know any thoughts, I know it’s a weird trade with two DL’d guys. I may be able to trade BJ Upton or Jay Bruce instead if you think that would be a better deal? Thanks as always for the help!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2012
Andrew – Very interesting NFL setup.
Raiders have talent, but DMC such a health risk.
Broncos offense could score a lot of points, but Peyton’s healthy makes me nervous.
Bears could be something, but O line questions.
I’d go Chargers as well. Norv Turner knows offense.
By Kaiser on Jul 17, 2012
Hey Ray, Desmond Jennings or Will Middlebrooks ROTW in a h2h categorical weekly league?
By greg on Jul 17, 2012
Morning Ray – I need an SP and wanna move Craig (Berkman, injury risk, etc.) Is Jordan Zimmerman a solid return? I’m way up in K/9 and I need QS (both of which my league counts). Good deal?
By jon on Jul 17, 2012
Hey Ray – I saw that you were pretty down on Vogelsong (50s or so) for 2nd half ranks. I was wondering how much that might change in a league that counts QS? I really need good innings of ERA/WHIP (we have a starts limit) and I can cover his lack of strikeouts. He’s currently tied for 2nd in MLB in QS with 15. It seems like he limits damage and goes 6-7 every time. I know that no one loves his skills/peripherals, but what does your SF Giants eye tell you and do you think he can continue with QS in the 2nd half? In my situation, is he a better own that Ian Kennedy who continues to be maddeningly mercurial?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2012
Jesse – Trade: Konerko, Morrow, Matt Moore for Votto and Hamels.
Right now this is Konerko/Moore for Hamels. I think that’s no more than a decent move. Honestly, don’t like it. With Votto out for up to four weeks, and with there being NO certainty how he will perform when he returns, it’s a tough deal to sign off on. With your rosters being painfully small, I wouldn’t have much interest in adding a player, even one as talented as Votto, if he’s hurt given the cost.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2012
Kaiser – I’d take a shot on Jennings. Middlebrooks might be a wee bit more stable, but his approach at the plate concerns me, and there is no doubt that Jennings is teh more dynamic talent.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2012
Greg – Craig for Jordan Zimmerman sounds like a fine deal to me.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2012
Jon – All Vogelsong does is throw quality starts. He’s move up 10-15 spots in a league like that. He knows how to pitch. The numbers dont really support the ERA, but he’s been doing it for 1.5 years now, so it’s hard to lean away. I’d still prefer Kennedy, but Vogelsong, in a QS lg, should not be on waivers.
By Jeremy on Jul 17, 2012
Hey Ray, do you think its possible at all the Cardinals will move Allen Craig to 2B now that Lance Berkman is back form the DL? I remember reading Craig was taking grounders from 2B the last time he was coming off the DL. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2012
Jeremy – Craig can’t play second base on a daily basis. He’s just not good enough defensively. He can play there maybe once or twice a week, but he’d be a real liability on defense long term, especially for a team with so many SPs that count on the grounder. I think Craig will play some first, some second, some outfield. Might only play 4/5 games though.
By CB on Jul 17, 2012
Hey ray-
I’m in a 12 team, 5×5 head to head, mixed league. Last night was a rough one for my team because i have Bautista and Ortiz. I have swisher to fill in for Bautista in OF while he is on the dl, but I need to pick up 1 guy to plug in for my utility spot while Ortiz is out and I’ll probably keep him on my team until Bautista is healthy again. Would you pick up todd Frazier, boesch or Headley?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2012
CB – Boesch is hot, but been pretty awful all year. Frazier hot, but not getting enough playing time with terrible Rolen getting in his way. Go Headley who could be dealt and owns the following slash line on the road in his career: .299/.366/.449