Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead
July 27th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun (and don’t think I’m not going to this weekend given that I will be in The Vegas. That’s right, The Oracle in Vegas… only good things can happen given that setup, right?). Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.
CONTEST
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HITTERS – FRIDAY
Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: Hey, it may not make one iota of sense, but Ethier absolutely obliterates pitches from Cain. In 51 career matchups Ethier has produced 22 hits and four walks. The result is a .468 batting average and .491 OBP against the Giants’ ace. James Loney is also 14-for-41 against Cain (.341).
Martin Prado vs. Cole Hamels: Brian McCann has 12 RBIs in 51 at-bats again Hamels but the real star of this show is Prado who has produced 15 hits in 45 career ABs (.333) against the newly minted gazillionare of the Phillies.
B.J. Upton vs. Dan Haren: Eleven Ks in 26 at-bats for Upon in this matchup. So why on Earth am I mentioning Upton as a solid play? In the other 15 at-bats Upton has ripped nine hits including four homers. Add it all up and B.J. has hit .346 with four homers an a 1.192 OPS against Haren.
PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Lance Lynn vs. Cubs: Lynn has allowed the Cubs to hit .222 with a .617 OPS against him in his young career as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched. Given that he’s allowed just one earned runs in his last three starts overall, this would seem like a pretty fair matchup.
Josh Tomlin vs. Twins: Looking for a sneaky play for Friday? Though current Twins batters have hit a healthy .288 off Tomlin in 73 at-bats, they’ve also managed a mere .297 OBP and .653 OBP as they’ve only taken him deep once.
Carlos Villanueva vs. Tigers: Over his last 10 outings (only four starts), Carlos has 38 Ks and just 15 walks in 34.2 innings leading to a 1.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also had success against the Tigers in his career with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.00 K/BB ratio over 17 innings.
HITTERS – SATURDAY
Carl Crawford vs. CC Sabathia: These two have faced off 69 times with Crawford emerging with 22 hits leading to a .319 average. After a tremendous start in his return to action Crawford has slowed though producing only one hit in 18 at-bats before game action Friday.
Buster Posey vs. Chad Billingsley: The Dodgers’ righty was impressive in his first game back from the DL (1 ER in 6 IP vs. STL), but this is one matchup he has a ton of trouble with. Posey has 11 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .478 average (Nate Schierholtz has hit .450 in 20 ABs against Chad). Posey, in case you’ve missed it, is hitting .465 over his last 11 games for the Giants as well.
Matt Kemp vs. Barry Zito: Just seeing this matchup has to make you think that Kemp is going to go off. When you look at the numbers you should be comforted by the fact that your initial thought is exactly right. In 49 career at bats Kemp has ripped off 22 hits (.449) and he’s also taken Zito deep twice with eight walks leading to a .526 OBP.
PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Bruce Chen vs. Mariners: This one is a shot in the dark since he’s pitched so poorly of late including a four runs, two homer effort against the Mariners back in July 18th. Chen has a .200/.209/.323 line in the 65 at-bats against the current Mariners. He’s also always had success against the club from the Pacific Northwest with a 4-0 record, 3.10 ERA and1.16 WHIP in 12 career matchups.
Bartolo Colon vs. Orioles: Current Orioles hitters are batting .243 with two homers and five RBIs in 144 career at-bats off Colon. The hefty righty of the A’s has allowed eight runs in his last two starts, but for the month of July he’s still sporting a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so he’s been very steady overall.
CC Sabathia vs. Red Sox: In 315 career at-bats the Red Sox batters have hit .248 against Sabathia. You’ll remember I mentioned Crawford killing it against CC above. Remove Crawford’s work against Sabathia and the rest of the Sox have hit .228 against the massive lefty.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Andre Ethier, B.J. Upton, Bartolo Colon, Bruce Chen, Buster Posey, Carl Crawford, Carlos Villanueva, CC Sabathia, Josh Tomlin, Lance Lynn, Martin Prado, Matt Kemp, Nate Schierholtz
By MN Mike on Jul 27, 2012
Ray-
First, I’d just like to tell you how much I appreciate this website and the work that you do. I love reading your responses to all of our questions and commend you for taking the time to do so.
My questions:
1. Who is the better streaming option this weekend Blanton or Minor, who face each other on Sat.? Specifically, I need Ks, but a Win would be nice too.
2. What is the deal with Drew Pomeranz? I see on ESPN’s forecaster article, he is ranked as the 15th best pitching option for the upcoming week? Every time I use him, he kills my era and whip! Is he a better option than say, Mike Leake, who they rank at #57.
3. Should Ricky Romero still be on my roster?
4. Finally, I’d love to see a post or article on SPs to get now as teams push to make the post season. Any trade targets or call-ups (Harvey?) that should be scooped up now?
Thanks again!
By Ming on Jul 27, 2012
Ray:
Thanks for your help as always. Cant wait for the football rankings.
Have a pickup question. I am in a 12 team, mixed league roto. 6×6 with extra offensive category as OBP. We start 2 infielders at each position. I have a great offense save my 2nd 3b, Mark Reynolds.
Like you, I love Reynolds and have always thought he was undervalued, but he has been putrid this year and has not had any power. On the WW are Casey Mcghee, Macier Itzturis, Eric Chaves, Alberto Callaspo, brandon inge.
I need runs/ba/obp/sb. Dont need hr/rbi so much. Was thinking of picking up Chavez or itzturiz. Thoughts?
Thanks,
Ming
By Ray Flowers on Jul 27, 2012
MN Mike – I appreciate your appreciation. Thanks Mike.
1 – Blanton. Been a solid K arm most of the year actually.
2 – I would not have Drew ranked that high. He’s throwing harder than ever, but the results are all over the place. I’d certainly go with Leake who has been way more consistent.
3- Romero – http://www.rotoinfo.com/blog/fantasy-baseball-the-on-deck-circle-07272012.html
4- Will take it under advisement amigo.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 27, 2012
Ming – Gonna bust out those football rankings next week! Look for them.
Reynolds, and it makes NO sense, has just stopped hitting homers. Dont know how that has happened.
Inge producing, but his AVG is hideous.
McG has been better last 1.5 months than first 1.5. Still, not great, but likely best of this group.
Chavez so blah, though PT will pick up after ARod’s injury.
Izturis cant hit. NO power, AVG/OBP below lg avg.
By greg on Jul 27, 2012
Hey Ray,
I’m trying to value Chris Young, L. Cain, Swisher, Crisp and was wondering if recent performance changed your thoughts about them ROTW? Cain’s 0-fer in his last 3 games, hopefully Swish comes back okay. I have this whole goal of vaulting up the SB cat (I alos own Boni)in my roto league because only 10 SBs separates me and the top, so Crisp makes sense as my 5th OF, but I’m worried that in my shallow 10-team league he just doesn’t offer enough Runs and RBI to justify holding him only for steals. Chris Young meanwhile has come on a lot of late in this 7-game homestand. Can you give me quick read on the sitch, especially if I can only keep 2 or 3 of them. Thanks man!
By jon on Jul 27, 2012
Mr. F – who do you like better as an MI option in a 10-teamer that counts OPS + AVG: Hardy or Espy? ROTW only. thanks a lot!
By Alan on Jul 28, 2012
Love this website too and thanks for your time and responses. Has Dickey finally come down to earth and have hitters finally figured out the knuckleball? 6.49ERA and 19 runs in 26 innings in July for Dickey.I have Sheets,Fiers, and Bailey available to replace Dickey, if the rug has come out from underneath him.I would really like to get Sheets and Fiers in my rotation…maybe Bailey. Besides Dickey, what do you think about replacing J.Johnson and/or Peavy with any of those guys??I got alittle wild and crazy and picked up Harvey, only based on his 1 game performance also. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
By CB on Jul 28, 2012
Ray-
Who do you like better in a 12 team 5×5 head to head mixed league for the rest of the season, Cuddyer or uggla? Thanks
By Robert on Jul 28, 2012
Hey Ray -
Now that Panda and Plouffe have both been relegated to my DL spots, do you like Frazier, Roberts, D. Murphy or Chris Johnson as a 3B fill-in? 12-tm, 5×5, H2H.
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 29, 2012
Greg – Coco hurt — even though he’s rolling. Cain has been killing it (dont ever just look at three games). Swisher hurt. CY finally starting to roll.
In a 10 tm, hard to trust one cat guy like Crisp.
If you only keep two, I’d pass on Cris, even with his hot work of late, since health is such a concern.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 29, 2012
Jon – Espinosa. Hardy hitting homers and driving in runs, but other than that pretty awful.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 29, 2012
Alan – Glad to be of help amigo.
Dickey was always going to come back to earth. No knuckleballer has ever pitched at that level for so long – ever. Still, you can’t drop him. If you want to move on, trade him. Certainly someone out there would still pay top dollar.
Harvey has huge arm, worth the add. Still, dont forget about Trevor Bauer and what happ there… game just not that easy.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 29, 2012
CB – Cudddyer is safer because he won’t kill your average. Still hopeful Uggla pulls out of slump, but it’s been a prolonged one.
RT @ajcbraves: #Braves Uggla, hitting .209 overall, has a .181 avg and .297 slugging% in 48 home games, w/ 4 HRs, 23 BB, 60 K in 155 ABs
By Ray Flowers on Jul 29, 2012
Robert – Johnson is on fire, so can roll there on short term, but just such a spotty track record and approach. Murph is all average, but he wont hurt you. Frazier best combo, and with injuries in CIN, he’d be my choice unless I just needed avg.
By Mike on Jul 30, 2012
Ray, whats your take on Dee Gordon when he comes off DL. Does Hanley stay at 3rd ? Buster Olney thinks Ramerez moves to SS. Hanley has Played 3rd every start since trade.
Thx
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Jul 30, 2012
Mike – Gordon can’t hit. How is that for hard hitting analysis? LOL
Original plan seemed to be HanRam at SS until Gordon was healthy. At this juncture I assume that HanRam will likely play third when the Gordon is healthy. Most thought HanRam would play short when deal was done, but it hasn’t happened yet.