Daily Joust – Wk 18: Did We Learn Anything?
August 6th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.
GAINERS OF THE WEEK
Yovani Gallardo (+31, $359K)
In three of his last five starts he’s allowed one run, and in four of six he’s allowed one or no runs. Despite that, his ERA has only gone down from 4.14 to 3.92. Why? Because in the other two outings Gallardo allowed 11 runs in 10.2 innings. So is the case with Gallardo. One game he’s great, the next a total disaster. In the end Gallardo is what he is. Check out the numbers for this season compared to his career levels.
2012: 9.00 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 1.35 GB/FB, 1.32 WHIP
Career: 9.21 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 1.23 GB/FB, 1.29 WHIP
He may never take the next step to true greatness, but if you run him out there every time he takes the hill the end result will include wins, passable ratios, an a big strikeout total.
Adam LaRoche (+21, $127K)
It doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense, but we know it to be true. For whatever reason, and there really is no rational explanation for it, Adam is simply a better hitter in the second half of the season. For his career his OPS goes up .129 points after the All-Star Break (.897 to .768). He’s done even better this year. In a mere 24 games LaRoche has gone deep eight times, knocked in 18 runs, scored 15 times, hit .348 and posted a 1.035 OPS, .199 points better than his first half mark. I’m unable to explain how LaRoche continually does it, so I’ll just report that he does, in fact, do it.
Wade Miley (+40, $397K)
His ERA has gone up three quarters of a run over his last six outings, but he’s still sporting a 2.98 mark for the year. Showing few signs of slowing, Wade has allowed three walks in his last four starts while he’s punched out 25 batters, a surprisingly total given his mere 6.75 K/9 mark on the year (the low walk total is expected given his 1.71 per nine mark on the year). His skill set scream out 3.98 ERA not the 2.98 that it actually is, but he has been remarkably consistent this year. He’s also been amazing in four starts during the day with a 4-0 record, 0.36 ERA and 0.67 WHIP.
Chris Tillman (+109, $362K)
The last time he took the hill was a bit rough (5 R in 5 IP), but he’s won each of his last three starts and through five outings he has a 2.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Unfortunately his K/BB ratio is 2.22, pretty much the league average, ditto for his 1.03 GB/FB ratio. He’s also posted a HR/9 mark that is about half of his career rate this year, all of which paints Tillman as a guy who is faring pretty well while at the same time not really deserving of all the success he’s attained.
LOSERS OF THE WEEK
Tyler Colvin, (-28, $55K)
Through 243 at-bats Colvin has been impressive with a .280 average, 13 homers and 43 RBIs. Unfortunately people were expecting a lot more after he hit .339 with five homers and 17 RBIs in June. I warned ya. Did you listen? In 26 games since then Colvin has hit .233, and though he has gone deep five times in that stretch the last time he hit a ball into the seats was July 6th, a full month ago. Colvin has regressed to being the type of hitter he is – one that can have success if used in the right situation, but not necessarily someone who should be in a fantasy lineup every day without question.
Yu Darvish (-72, $298K)
The good. He’s won 11 games and struck out 145 batters in just 127.1 innings. The bad. He’s walked 70 batters, the fourth worst mark in baseball, an as a result both his ERA (4.38) and WHIP (1.41) are way worse than a league average hurler despite the fact that batters have a very difficult time producing hits off him (his OPS against is just .601). His performance has also taken a decided turn for the worst as he’s allowed 21 runs over his last four starts (spanning 23.2 innings). It’s getting harder and harder to throw him out there unless you are in desperate need of strikeouts.
Jonathan Lucroy (-33, $78K)
People seem to think this guy is Mike Piazza Jr. He’s not. Though he’s hitting .323 with a .920 OPS, he’s hit a mere .200 with a .646 OPS in eight games since he’s been back off the DL. Given that he owns a career .272 batting average and .720 OPS, which hitter do you think he is more likely to be the rest of the way – Mike Piazza or Jonathan Lucroy?
Jarrod Parker (-34, $353K)
Parker has allowed six runs in three of his last 10 starts, and as a result his ERA sits at 3.44, the highest it has been since May 18th. He’s actually done a much better job limiting the free passes as he’s issued just five batters in four games, and he’s also struck out 19 batters in that time. Overall he’s been impressive with that 3.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but it’s fair to question whether or not he is starting to wear down given that he has thrown 130.2 innings this season after tossing 136.1 last season.
DAILY CONTEST
Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam LaRoche, Chris Tillman, Jarrod Parker, Jonathan Lucroy, Tyler Colvin, Wade Miley, Yovani Gallardo, Yu Darvish
By Jeff on Aug 6, 2012
Hey Ray. Thanks for the football guide. Still reading it(my Ipad’s battery died so waiting for it to charge)
I have a baseball trade question.
I’m in a Weekly H2H league and currently in 3rd place but I’m hurting at 2b. Some of the hitting categories are Hits and OBP instead of the normal Avg or OPS.
My only player that can play 2b is Michael Young. Young is currently under .300 OBP and only has 3 homers on the season.
I have 3 options.
I can pick up Omar Infante(who now is batting in front of Cabrera and Fielder)
I can pick up T Plouffe(His position eligibility in Yahoo is 2b/3b/ss/OF) and wait for him to return.
I can trade Joe Nathan to the 2nd place team for Chase Utley.
My current closers are Papelbon, Chapman, Frieri and Nathan. I also have David Robertson as a Whip, K/9, Relief win guy.
My concern is that I’d be strengthening the 2nd place team with another closer in exchange for Utley who may or may not be a drastic improvement over Young,Infante, or Plouffe.
What do you think? P.S. My only catcher is Wieters..is there a free agent catcher that would be worth gambling on over Wieters ROTY?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 6, 2012
Jeff – Hope you enjoy the NFL Guide. Certainly put a lot of work into it.
Infante no better than Young.
Plouffe isn’t likely to keep up the homer pace he showed, and he’s hurt as you know.
Nathan is too high a price for Utley.
I’d also try an avoid dealing with the 2nd place team – you don’t want to strengthen his club.
No way I can tell you who might be better than Wieters, but I’ll answer it this way – he’s still a top-1o catcher in my eyes, so unless your league is like 8 players, there won’t be anyone better on waivers.
By wesley on Aug 6, 2012
Hey Ray, 12 team H2h league Im looking towards the playoffs. My pitchers are Greinke, Gio, Romero, kuroda, bailey, j.mcdonald,wandy and vargas. Do you think that staff is good enough for playoffs in sept? Or should i trade 1 of my outfielders for a better pitcher. Holliday, justin and bj upton , choo, trout
thanks again
wes
By Nate on Aug 6, 2012
Hey Ray,
A couple of quick Rest of The Way options for you.
Asdrubal Cabrera or Rickie Weeks?
Paul Maholm or Dan Straily?
Thanks!
By Scott on Aug 7, 2012
Would you mind some football questions?? How do you think mid range draft picks like Michael Bush, Kevin Smith, Javon Ringer, Isaih Pead, Spiller, Hightower and Bernard Pierce will be used?? Non-ppr standard 8 team league. I’m hoping they get some good use by their teams and are not sitting on the bench…because they all are usually available pretty late in the draft. Do you have any favorites out of this group?
By Steve on Aug 7, 2012
Ray,
Been a long time, but I’ve been busy overhauling my team for the stretch run. I think I’ve gotten the most out of a lot of players and have dealt them for pieces to hopefully help down the stretch. This is my current AL-Only team:
C – AJ
1B – Carlos Santana
2B – Kipnis
3B – Miggy
MI – Michael Young
SS – Alexei Ramirez
CI – Trumbo
OF – Granderson, Revere, Span, Rios
UT – Callaspo
Bench – Damon, Luke Scott
P – Benoit, Burton, Phelps, Balfour, Mike Adams, Oliver, Pestano, Rodney
Bench – Doolittle, Cook, Crow
I hold a 4.0 point lead and my current positions are:
BA 5.0 (Lead of .0015 / Behind by .0023)
Runs 9.0 (Lead of 70)
HRs 9.0 (Lead of 8)
RBIs 9.0 (Lead of 19)
SBs 9.0 (Lead of 9)
ERA 8.0 (Behind by .024 / Lead of .106)
Wins 1.0 (Punted)
Total Ks 1.0 (Punted)
Saves 9.0 (Lead of 10)
WHIP 9.0 (Lead of .018)
The recent trades I’ve done in the past four weeks include resulted in the following:
I got Miggy, Rios, Trumbo, Carlos Santana, Luke Scott, Michael Young, Callaspo, Crow, Cook
I gave up Teixeira, Berry, Reddick, Butler, Longo, Dunn, Nathan, Brett Lawrie, Kelly Johnson, Frieri, Downs
I picked up Pestano and Oliver to fill the roster out. I traded a lot of power out, but I think I got the best from Reddick, Butler, Lawrie, KJ, and Dunn. Plus, Dunn/KJ were a major drain on my BA. These trades also allowed me to get Span into the starting rotation which has helped with the BA and SBs. So far, Miggy and Carlos Santana have hit for more power than the guys I’ve dealt, but with two more months of bball, I think the group I got back should hit close to the same number of HRs and produce similar RBIs while hitting for a much higher BA.
Sorry for the long comment, but what do you think?
Steve in Arlington, MA
By Ming on Aug 7, 2012
Ray:
Quick one. Just made a trade and got Jemile Weeks. He has really struggled this year but i needed SB badly and got a nice pitching upgrade on the back end of the deal. Jean Segura is on my WW. What his deal? Is he worth picking up and starting over weeks?
Thanks,
Ming
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2012
Wesley – I assume you only start 3 OFs from how your question is worded? You could deal one if that is the case, but having depth is nice (and you can always slot on at UT as well).
I would not feel comfortable with that unit. Romero total hit or miss. Ditto Bailey. McDonald tredning down. Wandy solid, but not likely to take off. Ditto Vargas.
I’d get another arm.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2012
Nate – I’d go Cabrera, Asdrubal for hitter.
On hill Straily is unquestionably more talented, but Maholm is the vet and in total control right now. Overall I’d go Maholm, though Straily is the better option if you need Ks.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2012
Scott – Did you pick up a copy of my NFL Draft Guide? I’ve got all those players ranked:
http://baseballguys.com/category/nfl-nhl/
In an eight team league guys like Pierce, Ringer and Pead not even draftable. That’s a really shallow lg.
Spiller and Smith best options you listed.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2012
Steve – So in recent weeks you’ve swapped out a third of your team? That’s a ton of movement, far too much if you ask me. Scott is hit or miss. Young continues to struggle. Callaspo = blah. Cook about ready to lose his 9th innings job. Trumbo/Rios likely to see their averages come down, so I dont necc. agree with your point of view that you added a lot of batting average. I’d rather have the group of players you gave up than the ones you added.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2012
Ming – Seguara is a nice hitter with speed. I’m always hesitant to push guys with no big league experience though. I’d look at him, and Weeks for that matter, as league specific players right now. I dont think either is a mixed lg starter at the moment.
By Steve on Aug 7, 2012
Thanks for your thoughts, Ray. Unfortunately, what is done is done. All I can do is hold on for the ride. So far, so good. As for Cook, I also have Balfour and Doolittle and I figure one of them has to become the closer in OAK. But with a 10 save lead over the next owner who has one closer, I’m doing ok. I also have Rodney. The next owner is 19 saves away and has 2 closers. These guys will mainly be for their ratios. I’ll start the hot hand while the other two will sit. I can still earn a save here and there with Benoit, Oliver, and Burton while Rodney is the Stud. Wish me luck. I’ll keep you posted. As always, THANKS for your thoughts.