Mailbag: Augus16, 2012
August 16th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Each week on Thursday’s I’ll be answering fantasy baseball questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Drop Carlos Santana for Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, or Jonathan Lucroy?
– @Krisr0ck27
First off, everyone needs to make sure they do a two catcher league next season. This is especially so in the the myriad of 10 team leagues that I receive questions about every day. If you can literally go to the waiver-wire an add any of those last four names, you should be ashamed at the lack of depth in your league. Lucroy is hitting .324 on the year. Rosario is tied with Buster Posey for the NL lead in homers (19) for catcher. Doumit has been a top-10 catcher this year (.294-14-59). Perez has hit .298 with eight bombs in a mere 39 games.
When the season started I would have said to go with Santana. Over the past four weeks only one catcher on this list has outperformed him (Doumit who has hit .311-7-17) as Santana has hit .270 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Santana has also hit seven bombs with 23 RBIs, a .410 OBP, a .542 SLG and .953 OPS since the All-Star break. You can move to Doumit if you need a bit of an average boost, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to, and riding, Santana.
First in all offensive categories, close to last in pitching categories. Is it worth giving Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Cain for the home stretch?
– @stealyurbase
It’s certainly the time of year in rotisserie that you have to play the categories. That means making deals that sometimes may not make total sense off the top. Would I ever draft Matt Cain ahead of Carlos Gonzalez? Are you on dope? Would never happen. But we’re 4.5 months into a six month season, so if your team needs pitching help this is certainly something to consider.
Cain continues to marvel with his consistency. Last year he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This year he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Moreover, since the start of the 2009 season, a span of 122 starts, Cain has a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All he does is take the ball every five games and give the Giants a chance to win. Period. My only hesitation here is that Cain has been a bit below his normal standards over his last seven starts as he’s been saddled with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, not awful numbers, but he’s not exactly trending in the right direction.
The deal isn’t a world beater by any means but it’s also solid given your needs.
I’ve been offered Hunter Pence for my Alex Gordon in a 12 team, H2H league. Seems like a good buy low but a lil worried.
– @NotoriousBox
I understand the concern, Pence is hitting a mere .177 with the Giants, but let’s compare these two guys efforts to one another.
Pence has doubled Gordon in homers, 18 to nine.
Pence has 24 more RBIs – 70 to 46.
Pence has scored one fewer run (66 to 67) and stolen two fewer bases (five to seven).
The only category in the fantasy game that really favors Gordon is batting average (.293 to .259). What about that average? Pence has a career .288 mark. Gordon’s career mark is .267. Pence also has hit at least .282 each of the past four years. Yes Pence is hitting .183 over his last 30 games and Gordon is hitting .341, and that’s a mind boggling difference. Still, I assume we can agree that neither player is likely to continue their pace since the All-Star break, right?
I’d take a shot on Pence. He’s got too much history on his side not to think he could still make a run to .280 this season, and he clearly has displayed a significant power advantage over Gordon this season.
Give up Curtis Granderson for Andre Ethier and Adam Wainwright? Could use a starting pitcher.
– @LKrukowski
Granderson has 30 bombs, 68 RBIs and 79 runs scored putting on pace for another excellent season. Of course there are some among you who are disappointed with that effort as he hit 41 homers with 119 RBIs and 136 runs scored last season. He was never going to repeat those numbers. He’s also continued his bizarre trend of alternating impressive an average steals totals from season to season (26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and eight this year). His batting average has also dipped to .235 an it’s looking like this will be his third sub .250 effort in four seasons.
Ethier will certainly give you a nice batting average boost. A career .291 hitter, he’s batting .288 this season after back-to-back efforts of .292. He’s nowhere near the run producer that Granderson is though as he’s hit only 22 homers over his last 241 games. Furthermore, after a torrid start to the year that included 44 RBIs in 50 games he’s driven in a mere 12 runners over his last 31 contests. On the hill is Wainwright, and he is surging. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, nearly a K per inning (44 in 48.2 frames) and he’s walked only eight batters. It took a while for him to find his footing, but over the past two months he has looked as good as he ever has.
If you need starting pitching help I think this is a solid deal, especially since Ethier should help to smooth out the ding that Granderson put into your batting average. Let’s just hope that the Cardinals don’t shut down Wainwright early to protect his arm. After all, he didn’t throw a big league pitch last year.
In tight battle for 1st on a 15 team league. Worried about Dan Haren rest of year. Time to cut bait or hang tight?
– @99hokie
Haren clearly isn’t 100 percent because of that back. As a result of the physical woes his performance has been up and down. A prime example. After allowing a total of four runs in three starts he permitted five earned over 3.1 innings in his last outing. That still gives him a 3.80 ERA over his last four starts, nearly a run below his 4.68 mark for the season. If we pull back a bit further he still has a solid 3.00 K/BB ratio on the year. His GB/FB ratio of 1.00 is right on par with his mark the last two years. He is surrendering more homers than every before (1.44 per nine versus 1.04 for his career) and that number could normalize a bit. He’s also dealing with a .283 batting average against, and only once since 2005 has that number been over .260 so it’s possible that he could be a wee bit stingier with the base knocks the rest of the way.
Admittedly there is no way to know exactly where Haren’s body is at, but I’d still profess faith in his ability to get batters out. You can’t expect the 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP guy from last season, but he should still be an above average option on the bump, especially in a 15 team league (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree).
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
Tags: Adam Wainwright, Alex Gordon, Andre Ethier, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Santana, Curtis Granderson, Dan Haren, Hunter Pence, Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Cain, Ryan Doumit, Slavador Perez, Wilin Rosario
By Wesley on Aug 16, 2012
Whats up ray, 10 team h2h MI,CI 4 outfielders and util. I have mccan as my catcher, uggla as my 2B and bourne as 1 of my OF. Heres my question? I have carlos lee as my CI slot and Martin prado is on waivers, would u drop lee for prado even though i already have 3 atlanta brave players? Whats your opinion on this
Thanks again
By Chase on Aug 16, 2012
Hey Ray, I have Hanson coming off the DL soon and need to clear up a roster spot. It’s a two closer league and I already have Jansen and Clippard, but am also holding on to Greg Holland. Should I drop him or maybe plouffe, fowler, rasmus, or laroche. They are all bench players and I have espy pedroia and wright at SS, 2B, and 3B. Thanks for the help, just can’t decide who i want to drop.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 16, 2012
Wesley – I don’t worry too much about having multiple players from one team in baseball (football is a different story). Given that Lee really hasn’t shown much power this season, I’d go with Prado who should at least match Lee in avg, has way more SB speed, and qualifies at 3B and OF to help you out.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 16, 2012
Chase – I’d say you can drop Holland IF there are closers available on the wire. If not, I don’t think you want to let him go cause one pitch can end a guys season. LaRoche is .287-7-22 the past four weeks, so you must have a super thin league if you aren’t starting him. Really depends on who your starters are and how confident you are in not needing to hold on to a backup at a certain position.
By Robert on Aug 17, 2012
Hey Ray,
Needing to make room on my roster, and wondering if you’d rather drop Youkilis or Utley? Both are bench guys for me, and I need to make room for a trade. Thoughts on the better value ROS?
Thanks for all of the help!
By Mark on Aug 17, 2012
Ray – who do you like better ROTW in a 5×5 12 team league: Rutledge or Eric Young?
Thanks,
Mark
By Ray Flowers on Aug 17, 2012
Robert – I would make the decision based on the need of your club. How do you feel about your starters? Which position needs more support? At this point both vets are very close. I’d generally say I’d rather have Utley, cause he plays second base, but it depends on your need.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 17, 2012
Mark – Rutledge and EYJ2 are both going to slow down. Just the way it is. Rutledge likely a bit better with the stick, Young better with the legs. Which do you need more at this point? Rutledge more likely to play every day than EYJ who, if he slumps, would likely lose some PT. Young likely to have more fantasy value cause of his wheels, but again, it’s about need.
By Chris C on Aug 17, 2012
Hey Ray,
I’m in a Dynasty league. I need help with my pitching going into the playoffs. I just traded Granderson for Jason Vargas and a 2nd round pick for next year. Vargas will replace Edwin Jackson and join Latos, Burnett, Miley, and Shields. Plus I have Austin Jackson to replace Granderson. Did I make a good deal?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 17, 2012
Chris C – Don’t like that deal at all unless there is a lot more going on than what it appears. I know Vargas has been pitching well, but that sounds like an awful move to add him at the cost of Granderson.
What makes this deal even worse – you say it’s a dynasty lg. That means you have to be keeping at least 10, if not more players, right? Therefore, a 2nd round pick is really like the, what if there are 12 teams, the 140th pick next year?
Hopefully there are dollars/rounds/years that are involved here, meaning that Vargas is like $2 and you can keep for 5 yrs while Granderson is at $38 and you lose him at the end of the year. If that isn’t the case, don’t like it in the least.
By Chris C on Aug 17, 2012
Its a standard H2H league. I understand what you’re saying with the draft pick, but you only keep 2 SP so in the second round there will be solid pitchers left to draft, and Jackson is putting up the same amount of fantasy points as Granderson. And Vargas is a big upgrade from Edwin Jackson. I’m giving him the better end of the trade, but I’m receiving pieces i need to win now.
By Chris C on Aug 17, 2012
Plus i forgot to mention my offense is loaded. I have the highest scoring offense and lowest scoring pitching. I also think Grandy’s numbers are gonna start dropping with him being almost 32.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 17, 2012
Chris C – There is nothing going on with Granderson to make anyone think he is going to drop off. His skills are stable. Thanks for the explanation about your situation, but it still doesn’t make sense to me. Just not a deal that benefits you at all in a keeper lg. Hope it helps you to win this year though.
By Chris C on Aug 18, 2012
Thanks for the input Ray. Next time ill have to consult you before the trade!
By CB on Aug 18, 2012
Hey ray,
first of all I want to say thanks for recommending that I pick up chase Headly about a month ago, because he has really carried my team while Bautista, Arod, and Ortiz have all been out during that time. However, now I have at least a 2 seed in my playoffs locked up in my 12 team, 5×5 head to head, mixed league and am thinking about trying to trade Headly for a SP to strengthen my pretty weak SP staff for the playoffs.. I have Cueto, Lester, j McDonald, Harvey, colon, Jaime garcia, Tim Hudson, and anibel Sanchez. So far this season with a strong offense I have been fine focusing on winning K’s, W’s, and Sv’s and only occasionally winning ERA and WHIP. I might be able to trade Headly for either strasburg or sabathia. I would pick up Reynolds or Daniel Murphy to play 3rd for now and hopefully have Bautista or Arod back for the playoffs. Would you try to do one Of these trades or just stick with what I’ve got?
Thanks again!
By Ray Flowers on Aug 18, 2012
CB – Headley sure has impressed, hasn’t he? I knew he could do it.
Yeah, adding an arm makes sense. McD had nice outing but struggling. Harvey on IP limit. Colon, never trust him. Garcia coming back from injury an Anibal looks awful in DET. Reynolds hitting .297 with four HRs last 2 wks, so a decent add right now. I’d avoid adding Strasburg in a H2H lg cause he will be shut down early, even if we dont know when. Sabathia would be a nice grab, but always a bit reluctant to deal for an injured SP, ya know? Realize if you do this, that you should not be counting on Arod being a big time play in Sept. He’s dealing with injury and will have a long layoff to overcome.
By Luke on Aug 18, 2012
Okie I’ve got a dynasty start-up draft tonite with the 8th pick. 10 team, 6 pts TD, PPR league with QB, 2RB, 2WR, RB/WR, TE, DL, LB, DB, K as our starters. More than likely the first seven are going to go Rodgers, Rice, Foster, Calvin, Cam, McCoy, and Stafford. Which player or direction would you go? I’m leaning toward going CJ, but I have a feeling that he might be available to me on the way back at 13 since at least one of the owners loves QBs. If I pass on him who would you take next. Or am a being a jackass taking the chance? Thanks as always Oracle.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 18, 2012
Luke – I’d take Cj2K. But, if you want to wait you could, I just dont like playing that game. If it didn’t work out, I’d go DMC at the RB spot. Remember this – you must have RBs to win, but they are likely only really good for 5-6 yrs. If you are doing a dynasty lg and playing long term, getting a guy like Matt Ryan, a veteran at QB who is still young (much younger than Brady/Brees types), is worth doing cause they have a longer shelf life than a runner.
By Matt w on Aug 18, 2012
Ray, how do you feel about peavy and wilson’s starts today? I have a lead in era and whip,k’s, and innings, but don’t want to lose it. How do u think both will fare tonight?
By Robert on Aug 18, 2012
Hey Ray,
Got another question for you after JMac’s nice bounce-back start last night…think he’s a better bet down the stretch than Lincecum? I keep trying to find reasons to hold on to him, but Timmy is definitely my least volatile SP right now (the K’s are nice, but heartburn isn’t), and I’m thinking JMac might be a more reliable option RoS. Thoughts? Thanks.
Just FYI, my current SPs: Lincecum, Price, J. Johnson, Morrow, Capuano, Niese, Medlen, Corbin
By Ray Flowers on Aug 18, 2012
Matt W – Not a huge fan of Peavy, but if you got him can’t see why you wouldn’t be starting him. Wilson has looked a bit better last two starts, but he’s the one I’d be most concerned about today.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 18, 2012
Robert – No question Lincecum continues to be a total mystery. Still, his 3.30 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9 K/9 mark over his last seven starts dwarfs the work of JMac’s last seven starts: 7.30 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 8 K/9. Given that, I dont know how you could feel a lot more confident about McDonald, especially since there were whispers he might even be moved to the bullpen.