Fun With Numbers
September 17th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
There are only a couple of weeks left in the 2012 MLB regular season, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t a whole host of numbers that are of interest as we head toward the playoffs.
.241: The league leading BABIP of Jered Weaver which is one point better than his teammate, Ervin Santana. While it’s not logical to think either man will replicate that number in 2013, it should be noted that Weaver has always been a pretty darn impressive in his ability to hold the hits at bay. Weaver has posted a BABIP under .280 each of the past three years, and last season that mark was a mere .250. Santana is no slouch in his own right with marks of .288 and .272 the past two years.
.323: Dan Uggla’s batting average over his last 10 games. Uggla is batting a mere .214 on the year, but he is just the #2 away from a lot of statistical milestones. Uggla has 18 homers, 68 RBIs and 78 runs scored for the Braves.
1: The number of homers that Yadier Molina needs to record his first 20 homer effort. He’s also two runs scored from his first 60 run effort and three RBIs short of his first 70 RBI campaign. He’s not Buster Posey (.333-22-93-73), but Molina is darn close as he’s also rocking an impressive .320 batting average that is fourth in the NL.
1.014: The OPS of Rickie Weeks in the month of September. Weeks has been flat out killing it the last two plus weeks. In the 15 games in the month of September he has gone deep seven times, stolen four bases, knocked in 14 runners and scored 14 times. That is the definition of elite level production folks. The .231 hitter on the season has also hit .280 over his last 69 games putting behind in the dreadful start he had to the campaign.
2: The number of homers and steals that Andrew McCutchen needs to have his first 30/20 season. Andrew’s 28 homers are already a career best, he’s one off his career best of 89 RBIs, and he just reached 100 runs scored for the first time. He’s also those two steals from a 4th straight 20 theft season and he will also set career bests in AVG (.343), OBP (.412) and SLG (.569) as his previous career bests are .286/.365/.471. However, he’s now three points behind Melky Cabrera for the NL batting title lead as he he hit .252 in August. He’s rebounded to hit .327 in September so we will see if he can catch the admitted cheater.
2.5: According to Dave Smith, founder of Retrosheet.org, teams may be paying too much attention to who they have working the 9th inning. According to his research, teams leading by one run after eight innings have won nearly 86 percent of the time. Moreover, since Mariano Rivera became the Yankees closer in 1997 the Yankees have won 97.2 percent of the games that they were leading heading into the 9th inning. The lowly Pirates, to compare, have won 94.7 percent of those games which may lead to the following contention – teams are patently overpaying their 9th inning arms because, statistically speaking, there isn’t as much difference between an elite closer and a group of solid arms working the 9th inning.
3/5: The number of homers and steals that Mike Trout needs to complete his remarkable run to 30 homers and 50 steals (he obviously has 27 HRs and 45 SBs). There have only been two such seasons in the history of baseball. Eric Davis had 37 homers and 50 steals in 1987 (he went 27/80 in 1986) while Barry Bonds, then of the Pirates before his muscles outsized his brain, had 33 homers and 52 thefts in 1990. One other note. Since I’m obnoxious and wont let things go… Trout is hitting a robust .329 on the year, including .317 in the second half, but that average has dipped to .280 over his last 43 games.
16/19: The homer and steals total of Danny Espinosa this year. He’s undergoing an MRI on his left shoulder today so it remains to be seen how much he will be able to build on those numbers. He won’t get to 20/20, but 15/15 as a second baseman ain’t all that bad now is it?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Andrew McCutchen, Barry Bonds, Closers, Dan Uggla, Danny Espinosa, Eric Davis, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Mariano Rivera, Melky Cabrera, Mike Trout, retrosheet.org, Rickie Weeks, Yadier Molina
By godfather on Sep 17, 2012
ray, wanted to run this by you: with all the statkeeping that goes on (lots of it useful), i thought it’d be about time to try something like “leads lost” for pitchers; we salute guys for having “quality starts” because they haven’t totally stunk, but in the interest of actually responsible stat-tracking, i’d think the leads-lost cat would be a helpful little tool; when i was a kid (yes — there was ball then), i learned early on, from dave righetti’s father, leo, what to look for in a pitcher — a money pitcher, as he termed it. what would the guy do when given a lead in the mid-to-late innings. i watched for years when starters would respond to a late lead by tossing it up a notch — the best ones, that is.
By Ray Flowers on Sep 17, 2012
Godfather – Problem is, how many “leads lost” can you get in one game? Gio Gonzalez wins 4-3 allowing 3 ERs over a nine inning complete game. Lets say though that he is give a 1-0 lead, and the score is tied. a 2-1 lead. Score is tied. A 3-1 lead, score is tied. Does he get 3 leads lost even though he pitched a CG win? Interesting thought though.
By Daniel on Sep 17, 2012
Ray,
I just wanted to pick your brain in regards to Jay Cutler. What would you do with him if he was your QB in a 12 team PPR?
Would you hold steady?
Would you make a trade to get RG3 or an Eli Manning?
Would you back him up with a Freeman, Cassel or Bradford?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Sep 17, 2012
Daniel – Cutler will be what he is – a bottom level QB1. I think he can still do that. He’s passable in your setup.
I’d trade to get RGIII or Eli , but you dont have to. They are likely to be better than Cutler, but not a significant move where you have to overpay to get them. I’d have preferred you went with a better backup though since you have Cutler. Of the names you listed, I’d go Freeman but blah.
By Steve on Sep 18, 2012
Ray,
Good morning! Thanks for your advice. It resulted in a win! A little luck was involved, too, but isn’t that part of the game… Eli and Washington defense came through BIG TIME! Now, onto Week #3: 1/2 PPR League.
1) Which TE do you recommend among Bennett, Pitta, and Celek?
2) LaFell is available: Who would you drop among DHB, McCluster, or Cobb? Cruz and Collston are my other WRs and I start 3 with possible 4th at Flex.
3) I’m thinking of starting Foster and Tate this week with Benson in the flex possibly. What do you think? I have no other RBs other than dual position McCluster and injured F-Jax.
4) Andre Brown, Richardson, and LeShoure are available on the wire. Would you suggest grabbing one of them? If so, in what order? I’d drop Dwyer for one of them.
Again, THANKS for all your time and help, Ray!
By Ray Flowers on Sep 18, 2012
Steve – Celek at TE. Was in my top-10 before season started. I’d add LaFell over McCluster. I don’t do start/sit until Weds each week. I don’t think any of those are a major improvement over Dwyer. I’d still rather have Wilson in NY. Richardson only has value if SJAx is hurt. I could see going with Leshoure, but I’m not sold on what the Lions are selling yet.
By Steve on Sep 18, 2012
Cool. Thanks, Ray! I’ll go after LaFell and Celek. I also like all the upside with Wilson, but am not sure why Coughlin has him deep, deep in the dog house after one fumble. Is there something else he did to warrant the banishment?
By Ray Flowers on Sep 18, 2012
Steve – After Wilson’s impressive preseason, no idea how he disappeared so fast. Yes a fumble and maybe a few missed blocking assignments, but I’m pretty much at a loss to explain it.
By Luke on Sep 18, 2012
Thinking about offering either Fitzgerald, Jennings, or Wallace for Spiller in a 10 team dynasty PPR league. I have Amendola to slot in and youth on my bench at WR with Kendall Wright, Randall Cobb, and Brandon LaFell. CJ is my number one RB and then I get pretty thin with M.Bush, Tate, Mendenhall, Redmon,and L.Miller. Crazy talk or not? Thanks for the guidance as always.
By Ray Flowers on Sep 18, 2012
Luke – In a dynasty lg, tough to turn away from any of those receivers since they tend to have a longer horizon of dominance than runners. At the same time, you have a ton of options out wide, and not so much in backfield. If you wanted to float an offer, I’d understand it. Let’s just hope that he keeps control of the job when FJax comes back. Given how big a fan of Jackson that I am, I’d rather if you were going to move one of your WRs that you target a back that is a clear cut #1 which Spiller isn’t at this point (we’re still not sure how he will be used when Jackson returns in a month).
By Steve on Sep 19, 2012
Ray,
I didn’t get Celek or LaFell in my waivers last night but I did get Pitta. Avery and Hawkins are available. Should I pick up one of them? I’d have to choose among Cobb, DHB, and McCluter to drop. If yes, who should I drop? I also got GB defense. Do you like them more than Chi, Cle, Buf, Was, and/or Ari defenses? They are annually one of the top defenses so I was surprised the owner dropped them last week. Thanks for your time and advice, Ray!
By John on Sep 19, 2012
Ray I have 2 football trade questions. I would be trading tony Gonzalez for Eric decker. I already have witten I can play at tight end. The next one is I would be trading Steven Jackson and Ben Tate for Jamal Charles. What do you think. Thank you.
By Steve on Sep 19, 2012
Ray,
Update 1: Avery is no longer available. Another owner picked him up. So, the question now becomes: Is Hawkins worth picking up to drop Cobb, DHB, or McCluster?
Update 2: Chicago defense is also no longer available. So, the question now becomes is CLE, BUF, WAS, or ARI defense/special teams worth grabbing over GB?
Again, thanks for your time, Ray!
By Ray Flowers on Sep 19, 2012
Steve – I’m not a huge fan of McC. If you have a strong RB base and need help at TE, Pitta is a solid player to move to. DEF is so much about weekly matchups that I dont worry too much about ROTW rankings at this point since everyone still has their Bye Week in play.
By Ray Flowers on Sep 19, 2012
John – Witten has had a rough start. See – http://fantasyalarm.com/in-the-trenches-the-extra-point/
Still, he should be a solid option and not much diff than Gonzo. Go ahead and make the move.
There is NO chance in hell you can do that RB deal. You would be robbed blind if you accepted. At this point, I’d rather have SJax than Charles anyway, so there is no chance on earth I’d toss in Tate. ZERO chance.
By Steve on Sep 19, 2012
Thanks, Ray! What do you think of this trade offer?
I get Martellus Bennett and LaFell OR Sjax
I give up Gates and Cobb.
My other WRs are Cruz, Collston, Hawkins, and DHB. My other RBs are Foster, Tate, Benson, and F-Jax. My other TE is Pitta.
By Ray Flowers on Sep 19, 2012
Steve – I don’t mind helping out, but please try an limit your questions to just a couple a week. This is already like your third in less than 24 hours.
Get Bennett and SJax id you want the most talented duo.
By Mike on Sep 19, 2012
Hi Ray,
I have a trade question for you (non-ppr):
Should I trade Reggie Bush for Brandon Marshall?
My other RB’s: R. Matthews, D. Martin, S. Jackson, S. Ridley
Current WR’s: AJ Green, V. Jackson, J. Blackmon
Thanks,
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Sep 19, 2012
Mike – With all those RBs, you certainly can afford to deal Bush. I’d do it… you really need a strong third wideout.
By Steve on Sep 19, 2012
Ray,
Understand. Will do. Thank you!
By Steve on Sep 21, 2012
Ray,
No questions or seeking advice for this week. You’ve answered them all. Just an FYI. I have the Bloomberg Sports Sit/Start tool (It came with the Yahoo site). I found it really interesting. It listed Randall Cobb as having a higher reward than DHB and Hawkins. Seattle is going to be a tough game especially in Seattle. Here’s hoping Cobb’s shoulder isn’t an issue Monday night. Good luck this weekend!