2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Misses
November 1st, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).
Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE
For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.
For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.
Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers
RELIEF PITCHER: MISSES
Do I really have to do this? I’m going to look like a buffoon listing all the misses. At least misery has some company here as pretty much every other preseason rankings list you will look at will be filled with just as many, more if I may be fair, misses as injuries an ineffectiveness killed the position this year. Never seen anything like it actually.
Players who were injured:
(#4) Mariano Rivera
(#7) Brian Wilson
(#9) Andrew Bailey
(#10) Sergio Santos
(#13) Drew Storen
(#25) Kyle Farnsworth
This group of arms threw a total of 88 innings in 2012. Last year that six-some saved a total of 202 games, an average of 34 per man. This year they totaled 18 saves.
Just plain misses:
Heath Bell (#8): I should have listened to myself when I was ranking relievers. Here is a direct quote from my Player Profile for Heath Bell writing on December 19, 2011. “Did the Marlins solidify the 9th inning or did they add a slightly overweight, skill deteriorating righty who might be a mighty expensive setup man by the end of the contract?… there are enough cracks in the armor here that you should be wary of Bell having yet another stupendous season… but his days as an elite closer are likely much closer to the end of the story than the introduction.” Shame on me for not trusting, well, myself.
Brandon League (#14): He lost his closing job with the Mariners and was eventually dealt to the Dodgers as he fell from 37 saves to a mere 15. His walk rate exploded causing his K/BB ratio to fall from 4.50 in ’11 to 1.64 in ’12, and that was a huge reason his effort tanked, not to mention that his GB/FB ratio, while damn impressive at 2.19, was well below his 2.80 career rate. Looks like the Dodgers are planning on him being their closer after giving him more than $22 million for three years. Sorry Kenley Jansen, who apparently has lost the gig despite being the second most dominating pitcher in baseball the past two years (Craig Kimbrel).
Jordan Walden (#19): The Angels always have a strong closer, so it was fair to think Walden would fill that role given that he saved 32 games in 34 chances in 2011. Walden finished 2012 with one save as he never rebounded from a slow start an injury. His 11.08 K/9 mark was impressive and he actually upped his K/BB ratio from 2.58 to 2.67 despite his failings in 2012. By the by, Ernesto Frieri was the dominating Angels’ arm as he had 23 saves, a 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP an a 13.36 K/9 mark over 66 innings (11.2 of those innings were with the Padres).
Jim Johnson (#32): The major league leader with 51 saves, only the thirteenth 50-save season in baseball history. I can rest comfortably knowing no other expert worth a salt had Johnson ranked much higher than I did. Johnson actually had three year lows in K/9 (5.37) and K/BB (2.73), but thanks to some luck and a massive 2.93 GB/FB ratio he just got batters out. Don’t expect a repeat in 2013.
Mark Melancon (#40): Ghastly. Putrid. Pathetic. Choose your adjective. Melancon was hideous in April allowing five homers and 11 runs in his first four outings (49.50 ERA, 6.00 WHIP). He actually pitched better later in the year posting 28 Ks an a 1.18 WHIP over his last 29.2 innings, but the damage was already done. At least I was right about Alfredo Aceves (see his multiple blow ups, 10 loses and eight blown saves).
Rafael Soriano (#59): I was the conductor of the David Robertson train this year, and he performed very well (2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12.02 K/9). After Rivera was hurt Robertson was installed as the Yankees’ closer. Unfortunately, an injury then also struck Robertson opening up the door for Soriano. Rafael not only stayed healthy throwing 67.2 innings, he also performed as if he was channeling Rivera with a 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 42 saves in 46 chances. If only Robertson hadn’t gotten hurt…
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brandon League, David Robertson, Heath Bell, Jim Johnson, Jordan Walden, Mark Melancon, Rafael Soriano, Relievers
By Jonathan Layden on Nov 1, 2012
Ray,
Sergio Santos….Oh what could have been. Do you think there is any chance he returns to the closing role next year?
Also, football question for you.
I am currently rolling with: Rice and Martin at the RB position; Julio Jones, AJ Green and Denarius Moore at the WR position, and Ryan Matthews tonight at the flex. I’ve got Maclin and Leshoure on the bench with good match ups this week. Should I swap them in for someone in my current lineup? It’s a 0.5 point PPR.
Thanks,
Jon
By Ray Flowers on Nov 1, 2012
Jonathan L – Santos could certainly return to the 9th, but he will have to prove his health first. Too early to tell at this point.
I’d start Maclin over Moore, but that would be the only change.
By Matt K on Nov 1, 2012
Ray, PPr league – Cobb, starks, or hillis in flex? And what are your thoughts on Allen the tight end from Indy? I’m thinking of strating him in front of Celek. Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 1, 2012
Matt K – This is a joke right? Hillis or Starks over Randall Cobb? The same Randall Cobb that is 4th among ALL WRs in football in PPR the last four weeks?
Start Celek at TE… at least I would.
By Matt K on Nov 1, 2012
Yes I’m sorry it was a dumb question. I already have cobb starting, and the celek- allen question just had me interested because Allen is suppossed to be freak and with Fleener out I felt he might get a lot of looks. Celek has been so inconsistent all year its hard to trust him, ya know?
By Scott M on Nov 1, 2012
10 team PPR, yardage heavy league, I have Forte, Lynch, McGahee, Leshure, and M. Bush with A. Hernandez and Greg Olson at TE – I have been offered Graham for McGahee – good deal?
By Ray Flowers on Nov 2, 2012
Scott M – Hernandez is a top-5 option when healthy, and Olsen is a passable fill in. Graham obviously the best option, and the deal on the table is totally fine. However, I don’t like it given your situation. Forte/Lynch are a strong duo, but if one were to get hurt, starting Leshoure or MBush in a 10 tm lg just wouldn’t be good enough.
By joe on Nov 2, 2012
in a keeper league would you trade wright and josh johnson (both keepers) for latos and medlen (making them your new keepers)
By Ray Flowers on Nov 2, 2012
Joe – Happy to answer your question. All I ask from people is that they say thanks or please and I’ll give my thoughts.
By steve on Nov 3, 2012
Ray,
I have Forte, FJax, LeShoure, Pierre Thomas, Alex Green, and Brown (Indy) at RB and Calvin Johnson, Collston, Reggie Wayne, and Shorts are WR. 1/2 per league.
Which RB starts along Forte?
I will start Calvin, Collston, and Wayne. Of the remaining WRs and RBs, who is the best option at the flex? Short, LeShoure or Pierre?
Thanks for the help, Ray.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 3, 2012
Steve – I would start Thomas. Whatever you do, avoid Brown and Green.
For me, it’s Thomas at RB, Leshoure at flex.
By Steve on Nov 3, 2012
Thanks, Ray. AGreen and DBrown will remain as depth.
By Scott M on Nov 3, 2012
Thanks Ray! I love the thought of Graham, but worried about losing the depth at RB – So I’ll stand Pat……….
By Troy on Nov 3, 2012
Hi Ray,
I’m in a 12 team PPR and have a flex question…..would you go with Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, or Donald Brown?
Thanks,
Troy
By Ray Flowers on Nov 3, 2012
Troy – Brown was downgraded today, might not even play. Gordon too risky since he usually only grabs 2-3 passes a week. Go with Smith. Safest option.
By steve on Nov 4, 2012
Ray – what r ur thoughts on the recent news on Megatron? 3rd down situations only IF he plays. If that is the case, should I go with the safe option of Shorts? Shorts at 100% of plays is better than Megatron at maybe 50% of plays, yes? Ugh! What a predicament. I’m at 4 – 4 and need the win. Thanks for your time and thoughts, Ray. Hopefully, DET may make this an easy decision if they decide to sit Megatron to get him 100% for next week.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 4, 2012
Steve – If you want start/sit #nfl advice, I will be at @SiriusXMFantasy, Sunday 10a-1p EDT. Only place I answer on Sunday’s. Rest of the week, you can contact me per usual.
I’d go CJ over Shorts.
By Steve on Nov 4, 2012
Thanks, Ray. I saw that this morning on one of your other posts and went to the twitter account, which had all the up to date info and no mention of limiting Calvin’s reps. Thanks. I’ll be checking the twitter acct every Sunday up to kick off. Most tweets will answer any lingering questions I may have re: player injuries and start/sits. Again, thanks a million. I’m down 0.05 but I have Collston and PT Cruiser going tomorrow night and my opponent has no one left.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 4, 2012
Steve – I blast through those tweets Sunday morning — I try to get to them all. Glad I could help out.
Glad you will win this week.
By Vince on Nov 6, 2012
Hi Ray,
Would you pick up any of these off the wire? TY Hilton, M Reece, C Palmer, E Sanders, M Goodson, J Bell, C Ivory? I have R meachem and a second defense to drop.
Current Roster
QB: Freeman
WR: C Johnson, T smith, K wright, T young
RB: AP, M Lynch, B tate, J stewart, P Thomas
TE: J Graham, D keller
Thanks,
Vince
By Ray Flowers on Nov 6, 2012
Vince – Pretty shallow rosters eh? Given that they are, I don’t think you need to keep two tight ends. I would also question the wisdom of having Tate as well. With Wright’s elbow so so, I’d add Hilton and drop Meachem quickly. Also, drop that second D an add Bell who has the most long term love at RB.
By Steve on Nov 7, 2012
Ray,
Would you start Ballard is week? I have Forte as my other RB to start and can start another in my flex. My other RBs are LeShoure, FJax, Pierre Thomas, and Reece. I’m leaning toward LeShoure as the 3rd RB this week. I start Calvin Johnson, Collston, and Wayne in the WRs slots. 1/2 ppr league.
Also, would you start PIT or MIA defense this week? They both have good matchups.
Thanks for the time, Ray!
By Matt w on Nov 7, 2012
Ray, Ppr league pick 2 to start m. crabtree, a. hawkins, l. robinson, and c. givens?
By Ray Flowers on Nov 7, 2012
Steve – I would start Ballard before Michael but Reggie goes before both.
Leshoure should be your #1 RB this week, then FJax, then Thomas.
Go PIT on D. The Chiefs are a total mess.
By Steve on Nov 7, 2012
Ray,
Sorry. I’m a little confused. Of my RBs (Forte, LeShoure, FJax, Ballard, Pierre, Reece), you are saying for this week, you are rating LeShoure, FJax, and Thomas higher than Forte? Or did you miss Forte? I can start 3 RBs while also starting 3 WRs. Thanks for the clarification, Ray.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 7, 2012
Steve – You are correct. I missed Forte. He is ahead of all the other backs. My apologies.
By steve on Nov 7, 2012
Ray,
No need to apologize. You’re the Oracle! Plus, you probably have hundreds of emails and tweets to respond to. I fig’d you might have missed forte. No worries. Thanks for all your time and help, Ray.
By Daniel on Nov 8, 2012
Ray,
I’m trying to decide who to start at Flex in a PPR. I have Rashad Jennings playing the Colts tonight or Hakeem Nicks @Cin. I’ve read a little about Nicks’ knee but I always seem to get burned by Thurs games. Which guy would you start?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Nov 8, 2012
Daniel – I dislike Thursday games as well. Given the setback that Nicks had Weds, I’d go with Jennings just to be safe.