Player Profile: Michael Brantley
November 7th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Why am I reviewing a guy who didn’t hit .300, who didn’t steal 15 bases, who didn’t hit 10 home runs, and who didn’t record 65 runs or steals? Why “waste” an article on Michael Brantley. Let’s see if I can explain why.
Let’s start with his lack of elite production shall we. It is true that Brantley didn’t hit .300 (he batted .288). It is true he didn’t steal 15 bases (he stole 12). He didn’t drive in or score 65 (he had 60 RBIs and 63 runs scored). He also only went deep six times. But I’m telling you, there is plenty to like here. If you were in an AL-only league Brantley was a strong option in the outfield. There were even times where he was worth starting in shallow mixed leagues such as May when he hit .296, knocked in 16 runners, scored 15 times and stole seven bases (read those numbers again to let the impact sink in). And let me tell you, though it doesn’t look like it at first blush, his overall effort was actually pretty darn solid. So here’s the payoff. How many outfielders in baseball, in 2012, hit .288 with six homers, 60 RBIs, 63 runs scored and 12 steals? The answer might shock you – it’s nine, and look at the list:
Mike Trout
Andrew McCutchen
Ryan Braun
Alex Rios
Carlos Gonzalez
Martin Prado
Austin Jackson
Yoenis Cespedes
and… Michael Brantley
He’s not on par with those eight, he never will be, but it just goes to show you that if you do a little bit of everything maybe you can have some quiet value.
The good.
Brantley hit .288 in the first half. He hit .288 in the second half. He hit .310 at home.
The bad.
He hit .265 on the road as his OPS fell .133 points from his effort in Cleveland.
The good.
Brantley’s walk rate was a career best as his K-rate was a career-low. The result was an impressive 0.95 BB/K ratio that, simply put, is an excellent number.
The bad.
He has little homer power though he did rap out 37 doubles.
The good.
He knows what he does well, and he just goes out and does it. He hits line drives – 20.2 percent or better in his four seasons – and his ground ball rate has been between 47.9 and 48.7 percent the past three years.
The bad.
What you see is what you get.
Brantley will not hit 20 homers.
Brantley will not drive in 100 runs.
Brantley will not score 100 runs.
Brantley will not steal 25 bases.
But, and it’s a deserving but, he’s a good ballplayer who does a little bit of everything. He’s only played two full seasons in his young career, and the seeds of growth are here. I’m especially intrigued by the significant plate discipline growth Brantley showed in ’12. If he can continue along with a K/BB mark around 1:1, we could see Brantley sneak into the .300′s in 2013. With that, let me ask you this. I know that .288-6-60-63-12 looks pretty boring, but what if that line turns into .300-10-75-75-15 in 2013? Would you be interested then? Those numbers are possible, maybe not probable but possible, with Brantley. Given that his draft day cost will be rather inexpensive, he would seem to profile as a strong 5th outfield option in mixed leagues in 2013. Remember that on draft day.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Indians, Michael Brantley
By Jon on Nov 7, 2012
Ray,
Who are the better plays this week? Malcolm Floyd or Denarius Moore at WR? Ryan Matthews, Rashad Jennings, or Mikel Leshoure at RB? I am leaning toward Leshoure since RB’s have been shredding that Vikings run defense over the last few weeks, but something is telling me that last weeks light work load was an abberation and that I’d be better off sticking with Matthews.
Thanks,
-J
By Tim on Nov 7, 2012
Ray- standard scoring non-ppr question.
Start 1 between:
Dez Bryant
Cecil Shorts
Titus Young
Typically this would be a no brainer with Bryant, however Indy’s secondary is banged up and Shorts is playing at home. I would think there is real potential here.
Young is at Minnesota who is also down a CB. I don’t see Detroit running as effectively as they did at Jacksonville last week which means one on one coverage for Young all day on a fastrack as Calvin will continue to be double teamed.
Bryant is practing which is a plus but after last week’s fiasco, what can be expected from Dallas on the road? Philly’s D has been poor but will Asomugha cover Bryant? If so, it could be a tought day for him…
By Ray Flowers on Nov 8, 2012
Tim – You are correct that Shorts seems to be in a good situation, but there is no way I’m starting him over a more talent player in a vastly superior offense. Shorts is last here. Young is still second for me. Namdi isn’t the cover he once was, and the Eagles have allowed eight scores in eight games to the wideout, so it’s not an impossible matchup. Go Bryant.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 8, 2012
Jon – Go with Moore. Getting more targets in an offense that is passing more.
RB (order): Mathews, Leshoure, Jennings
By Steve on Nov 8, 2012
Ray- QB scoring 3pts/passing TD, 1pt per 25 yards passing, otherwise standard scoring.
I can start 2 qbs or 1 qb and any other player.
I am starting Newton as 1st QB. Have choice of starting Ponder OR Reggie Wayne. Ponder has struggled mightly lately and will not have Harvin although he is at home vs a poor Detroit Defense. Wayne has a nice matchup in Jacksonville but will sit if I start Ponder as I have AJ Greeen and Colston starting at WR.
Who would you start?
By Ray Flowers on Nov 8, 2012
Steve – please or thanks is all I ask…
By Steve on Nov 8, 2012
Sorry Ray
Was in a hurry
I always appreciate your feedback
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Nov 8, 2012
Steve – With Harvin totally up in the air in terms of playing, you’d be taking a huge chance playing Ponder over Wayne at this point.
By steve on Nov 8, 2012
Ray,
Love the article. Brantley is going to be one of those solid 3rd year players who should come at a great value.
Steve
By Jeff (AKA Kay's Dream Guy) on Nov 8, 2012
Hey Ray. How ya been?
Today I have a question for a PPR League. I’m in pretty rough shape. Due to injuries to McFadden, Antonio, Murray and byes from Richardson and Josh Gordon, I’m forced to start Ballard at HB and D Allen is my TE. I need to start two of these other 4.
C Shorts
J Dwyer
T.Y. Hilton
R Broyles
Being that I’m already starting two Colts, should I eliminate the Colt WR Hilton..or would he be one of the two best options for my lineup.
Thanks man.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 8, 2012
Jeff the Dream – Been pretty good. Getting over the flu actually, still working my way through it.
I would not start 3 Colts and feel comfortable. Sorry, I was on the air when you sent this anyway to it’s too late to start Hilton/Shorts.