Player Profile: Scott Diamond
November 13th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Doesn’t it seem like every pitcher on the Minnesota Twins gets batters out while never walking anyone? Now it also seems like the majority of them rarely strike batters out either, but the club still must be patted on the back for the fact that they just keep rolling arms out there, year after year, that get outs despite less than intimidating stuff. One of those arms belongs to Scott Diamond who, in his first full season in the big leagues, won 12 games over 174 innings for the Twinkies. Let’s profile the lefty from Guelph, Ontario (you might notice a fair amount of similarity in what follows to the recent Player Profile of Ross Detwiler).
Diamond started out rolling like a baller – he was Marlon Brando – with a 2.27 ERA through his first five starts, and he hit the All-Star Break with a 7-3 record, 2.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Unfortunately things started to even out in the second half as his record fell to 5-6 while his ratios jumped (4.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) when he turned into Danny DeVito. Overall Diamond went 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his 27 starts as he bettered Max Scherzer in ERA (3.74) and Jeremy Hellickson in WHIP (1.25). Despite those overall solid numbers, I’m not sold that this is someone you should be dreaming about drafting in 2013. If I had concerns about Detwiler, and you can read about those in the link above, I have even graver concerns about Diamond. Point by point.
(1) Diamond has no idea what a strikeout is. Last year he was able to convince 4.68 batters per nine innings to strike out. That’s only three batters below the league average.
(2) He walked a mere 31 batters on the year leading to a 1.61 BB/9 mark. He’s always been able to keep the walks down but he never had a single minor league stop with a number that low, and his career number in 600 minor league innings is 2.84. We therefore have to expect that number to rise in 2013.
(3) His line drive rate of 21 percent was higher than the league average (19 percent).
(4) His HR/F ratio of 11.4 was higher than than league average (9 percent).
(5) His BABIP was .292, right on the league average.
Nothing in any of that says ‘this is a guy I have to have on my fantasy squad.’
So how did he have success? Much like Detwiler, Diamond is able to induce a boatload of grounders. Diamond’s 53.4 percent ground ball rate was the 4th best in the AL, and we know how guys that induce grounders with abandon can have long and successful careers (think Derek Lowe). However, it’s the only trait that he possesses that speaks to him being anything other than a borderline league average hurler. When everything goes right, as it did in 2012, then guys like Diamond can have a lot of success. When it goes wrong though, you end up with a Rick Porcello type effort (4.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and just 107 Ks in 176.1 IP). And that’s the obvious rub with Diamond. If he can’t rediscover the two strikeouts per nine innings that he left in the minors when he joined the Twins he’s just not going to be someone who is consistent enough to be a weekly starter in the fantasy game. When ground ballers are on, they can dominate for months at a time. When that balls leaks up over the plate, they get beaten back to the Middle Ages.
Could Diamond repeat his 2012 effort in 2013? Sure he could. Would I bet money that he would? No I would not. Would I draft him in a mixed league? No I would not. Would I target him in an AL-only league? Again, I would not. Diamond is one of those arms that is best left for the real world versus being someone you would be interested in building a staff around in the fantasy game.
NOTE: Former Twins’ right hander Scott Baker is no longer in the fold after signing a 1-year, $5.5 million deal to join the Cubs. Coming back from Tommy John Surgery, the 31 year old isn’t likely to be ready by Opening Day, but he should be healthy enough to take the ball every five days for the Cubs early in the year.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Minnesota Twins, Scott Baker, Scott Diamond, Twins
By Fish on Nov 13, 2012
Ray,
Same question, different day. In light of the concussion, which led to this quote… “Yahoo! Sports reports two sources said Monday it’s a pretty strong bet Vick will be “rested” for the rest of the season. “I’m 99 percent sure that’s exactly what you’re going to see happen,” one source said. “Andy is going to go to [owner] Jeff [Lurie] and [general manager] Howie [Roseman] and say, ‘Let’s go with Foles and make the transition to the next era.’” … do I drop Vick and pick up Freeman? Starter is RG3. Thank you!
By Ray Flowers on Nov 13, 2012
Fish – I think Vick will return to starting at some point, especially if Foles struggles, but certainly not a lock to happen. Since Vick or Freeman would be your backup anyway, go for Freeman who has been surging and let Vick go.
By Steve on Nov 14, 2012
Ray,
I have multiple questions this week. Let me start with listing my roster (1/2 PPR league):
Peyton
Colston, Wayne, Megatron, Amendola
Forte, FJax, Reece, LeShoure, Ballard
Gates, Daniels
Barth
Falcons
I start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1Flex (R/W), 1TE, 1DST
Q1: With Cutler down and out, should I be concerned with Forte’s production?
Q2: Would you trade Forte and Colston or Amendola for Spiller and Denarious Moore?
Q3: Beanie, Jacquizz, and Starks are on the wire. Should I add 1 or 2 of these RBs? If so, who do I drop?
No mas. No mas. Thanks, Ray. You’ve been very helpful and generous with your time. Thanks a million!
On a baseball note… What do you think of the megatrade btn Toronto and Miami?
By Ray Flowers on Nov 14, 2012
Steve – My thoughts on the huge trade were addressed in the article today which was posted after your question – http://baseballguys.com/2012/11/14/the-fall-of-a-franchise/
Forte’s workload is likely to increase without Cutler. He should be fine.
Spiller’s elite value ONLY exists while Jackson is out. Once healthy, Sjax will see his normal workload. I haven’t heard anyone say that Spiller will get 80% of the work when Jackson returns. Too much to give up.
I’d be very interested in adding Wells. I would take a shot on him and drop Ballard, but might be a lateral move.
By Steve on Nov 14, 2012
Thanks a million, Ray! Will read article now.
By Bob G on Nov 14, 2012
Ray,
Trade question. 14 Team 1 point PPR. I’m giving Cam, Shonn Greene & Nicks for Vick, Sproles & Fitzgerald. I have Palmer as my other QB. I would use Reece, Alex Green, Howling or D. Richardson until Sproles is back. Thoughts??
By Steve on Nov 15, 2012
Ray,
Great article on the trade. Which one is worse: Red Sox & Dodgers or Marlins & Blue Jays? It’s kind of tough. The Sox/Dodgers involved 1/4 Billion dollars vs approx $150 million (?) for the Jays/Marlins. However, the Sox got some good talent in return. What is the talent level in the players the Jays rec’d? Are any of them top prospects?
Onto Football… Do you think this is my optimal lineup for this week?
My roster (1/2 PPR league):
Q: Peyton
W: Colston, Wayne, Megatron
R: Forte, Reece
T: Gates
F: Amendola
K: Barth
DST: Falcons
Bench: FJax, LeShoure, Ballard, Daniels
Thanks a million, Ray! Love the Hot Stove talk and rumors.
By Vince on Nov 15, 2012
Hi Ray,
I need a RB fill in for Lynch this week. The options are J Stewart, C Ivory, D thomas, J BEll, J rodgers, Ballard and brown. I know they are all exciting options but I need you to chose 1. PPR
Thanks,
Vince
By Ray Flowers on Nov 15, 2012
Bob G – All I ask for is a please or thank you.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 15, 2012
Steve – The Marlins/Jays deal is WAY worse than the Sox/Dodgers one. The Marlins got NOTHING back. Beyond the cash, the on field deal is soooo lopsided.
Unsure about your question. Daniels is hurt. FJax is out. Ballard is in a timeshare. Only change would be Leshoure over Reece for me.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 15, 2012
Vince – Go with Bell. He always finds a way to get involved, and there is going to be a lot of scoring vs. the Packers.
By Steve on Nov 15, 2012
Ray,
That’s what I thought, too. None of the prospects the Marlins got were ever mentioned in any top prospects of the game and the MLB players they got aren’t anything to brag about. How do owners such as Loria get away with this BLEEP?
You answered perfectly. I was deciding btn Reece and LeShoure. Reece vs NOS is a juicy matchup and should be a shoot-out. I didn’t think so with GB/DET, but you think there is going to be a lot of scoring, eh… Cool. I’ll make the switch… and, as always, THANKS, Ray!
Have a great weekend. I’ll talk with you next week.