Player Profile: Torii Hunter
November 15th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Torii Hunter is coming off of one of the best seasons of his distinguished career, and the 37 year old realized this might be his last contract of significance, if not the last contract, of his big league career. He said he wanted to find a home where he could play full-time and have a chance to win. He got his wish Wednesday when it was announced that he signed a 2-year, $26 million deal to join the Tigers (for more on the deal and how it came to pass read the entertaining story of The Tale of Torii the Tiger). His signing will obviously also ding the value of Brennan Boesch, Quintin Berry, Avisail Garcia and Andy Dirks who will now struggle for at-bats in Detroit, but what does this mean for Hunter and his fantasy value in 2013?
Hunter appears likely to play right field and hit second in the Tigers order behind Austin Jackson and in front of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. There isn’t a better spot in any order that Hunter could have landed in, period.
Hunter started his career in 1997 though his first two seasons he totaled all of 19 plate appearances. Still, he’s been around forever, and he’ll turn 38 right after the 2013 All-Star Game. Should his age be a concern? You bet your rear end it should, and that’s easy enough to see if we look at two main components of his game – power and speed.
Hunter hit 16 home runs in 2012, his lowest total since going deep 14 times in 2005 (he appeared in just 98 games that year). The 2012 season was his first of 138 games played in which he didn’t go deep 20 times (he’s appeared in 138 games ten times). Besides the onset of age, why did his homer total fall? Let’s look at his fly ball ratio. Here are the marks the past four years: 36.3, 33.6, 33.3 and 25.4 percent. Last years mark is clearly an outlier for a guy who owns a 34.4 percent career mark, but the trend is unmistakable – he’s not lifting the ball like he used to. Now he missed his career HR/F ratio of 15.8 percent by only two tenths last year so when he does lift the ball he still goes deep with the same regularity. Unfortunately for Hunter though, Comerica Park was just 17th in homers in 2012 (it’s not exactly a launching pad).
Hunter has long been an effective base stealer. He’s never stolen more than 23 bases, and has only hit 20 steals three times, but he’s still a threat for double-digit thefts, or is he? After a run of 6-straight seasons of basepath success from 2004-09, Hunter stole at least 12 bases each season and five times he swiped at least 18, he’s kinda stopped running. The last three years he has failed to reach double-digits, and it’s not just his steal total that has shrunk, but his effectiveness has vanished as he’s converted 23 steals while being caught an unconscionable 20 times. Why Mike Scioscia ever even let him run is beyond me.
‘So the power is slipping and the steals are too, but Ray, the guy hit .300 last year so he’s still valuable in the fantasy game.’ I wouldn’t disagree with that sentiment, but let’s not take it too far. Yes Hunter hit .300 for the first time, he hit .313, but the guy is 37 years old. He had also failed to hit .282 the previous two seasons. He owns a career batting average of .277. His BABIP of .389 in 2012 is only, oh, .059 points higher than it has ever been before (career .307). His line drive rate of 22.6 percent was also a career best, just the second time he even posted a mark of 20 percent, and light years above his 17.8 percent career mark. Add in a career worst 0.29 BB/K mark and you’ve got yourself one of the most fortunate .300 hitters you will ever see. Hunter will not hit .300 again in 2013.
As I noted above, Hunter couldn’t have done a better job insulating himself with elite batters. If he does hit second for the Tigers he will have a very productive season. His RBI total will likely fall, but he should have no problem keeping his runs scored mark high. Still, be careful not to overvalue the logo on his jersey on draft day – this is still a 37 year old who has seen his power and speed decline, and one that has no shot to replicate his batting average from his last season in Anaheim.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Angels, Tigers, Torii Hunter
By Jonathan on Nov 15, 2012
Ray,
Who do you think would be the better play at QB this week: Luck vs. New England or Palmer vs. New Orleans?
Thanks,
Jonathan
By Ray Flowers on Nov 16, 2012
Jonathan – Both are QB1. I would go Palmer. 365+ passing yards last two games and now takes on worst pass defense, maybe ever.
By Fish on Nov 16, 2012
Good Afternoon Ray,
Nice insight on the Marlins yesterday. As a Stanton owner, I’m worried, but for $24 I’m keeping him regardless.
Thanks for the advice on Freeman. Picked him up and dropped Vick. Need some help this week if you can.
Need 2 rbs, 2 wrs and flex. Ridley and Matthews WERE my rbs with CJ on a bye and I was going to play LeShoure in the flex. I start AJ and Cobb with Cruz on the bye and also have Torry Smith, Britt and LaFell. But what’s up with Matthews? At this point I plan to keep Matthews in and if he doesn’t play go with Smith. Do you agree? As always, thank you Ray.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 16, 2012
Fish – Yeah, those Marlins – awful. If I was Stanton, the Marlins could offer me $125 million and I’d turn it down. He’s good as gone once he hits free agency.
At this point, Mathews is still a starter for me. However, Friday’s practice listing will be important so look for that later today. My gut is that his neck will be well enough for him to play. I do agree with your fall back. If concerned about Mathews but Leshoure at RB and then go Smith at Flex.
By Jonathan on Nov 16, 2012
Ray,
Thanks for the advice. I’ll go with Palmer. One other question for you, my lineup also features Denarius Moore and Brandon Myers this week. Should I grab Pettigrew off waivers and put him in for Myers instead of running with three Raiders this week?
Thanks,
Jonathan
By Ray Flowers on Nov 16, 2012
Jonathan – I don’t like the idea of using 3 players from same team. I also don’t love the idea of playing Myers who is coming back so quickly off a concussion. Grabbing Pettigrew is a nice balanced approach.
By Matt W on Nov 17, 2012
Ray, Celek or Allen ppr, and 49ers Def or Falcons Def? Also, which of the two tight ends do you think will perform better over the next four weeks? Is Fleener anywhere near coming back to impact Allen? Thanks for your time.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 17, 2012
Matt W – I would go with the Niners D, even though Falcons have outscored them this year.
Celek would be my choice. Return of Fleener is coming. Plus, Foles may, like other young QBs, check down a bit to his RB and TE.
By Eric on Nov 18, 2012
Ray, 12 team PPR. Nervous about starting Julio Jones. Do I go with Julio or someone from my bench like Danario Alexander, Joique Bell, James Starks, or DHB. Thanks so much.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 18, 2012
Eric – If you want start/sit advice, send to me at @SiriusXMFantasy Sunday morning, 10a-1p EDT.
By John on Nov 18, 2012
Ray, I’m up 2.ppr league. I have forte and he has Marshall. Who do you think wins. Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Nov 19, 2012
John – I always love these questions. No matter what I say, not going to change anything at this point since lineups are set. I would say in a PPR that I would favor Marshall slightly, by a few points: 2-3.
By Steve on Nov 19, 2012
Hi Ray,
Question: Who has the most upside among Beanie Wells, Ronnie Hillman, Lance Ball, Jalen Parmele, and Bryce Brown?
I currently have Beanie and would drop him if one of the others is more desirable. What do you think? Also, would you be concerned with Amendola’s foot? He did return, but definitely was not 100%.
Thanks for all your time and help, Ray! I pulled out a narrow victory this week. Bleeping Campbell nearly blew it for me by getting sacked 5 times, throwing 2 interceptions, and giving up a safety… but Forte did just enough to give me the 3+ point victory. Let’s keep the good times rolling. Hope you were successful in your games this weekend.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 19, 2012
Steve – I’ve got a Rams source, and there was no word that the foot was a significant issue with Amendola.
Wells is the highest upside play for me. Would go: Wells, Hillman, Parmele, Brown, Ball. At the same time, Brown/Parmale may one start for a week, and Ball is just an average talent. The only one you could drop Wells for would be Hillman. Most would probably say do that.
Good luck yourself.
By Steve on Nov 20, 2012
Thanks, Ray. Puts me at ease with Amendola. I’ll put in a claim for Hillman and see if I can drop another player.
As for real football talk, should Alex Smith be concerned? That kid looked really good last night against one of the top, if not the top, defense. Things are looking up for the 49ers.
Again, thanks for your time and advice.
By Ray Flowers on Nov 20, 2012
Steve – Colin certainly has a better skill set than Smith. More athletic, much stronger arm. There is some uncertainty today if he will get another start or if the team will go back to Smith. Smith is no great shakes, but he does what is asked of him, so I’d be surprised if he loses his starting job. We’ll see though. As great as Colin K. looked… it was just one game.
By Steve on Nov 21, 2012
Ray,
Ugh! Didn’t think I was going to need to seek your advice this soon in the week, but because of the 3 Thurs games, I’m forced to. I’ll keep it short.
I am starting Megatron, Colston, and Wayne at the 3 WR spots and Forte at 1 of the 2 RB spots.
Of the remaining players, who would you start in the 2nd RB slot and the flex? The options include Reece, F-Jax, LeShoure (Thurs), Beanie, Parmele, and Amendola. 1/2 PPR league.
Also, what defense would you go with this week among ARI, WAS, TBB, CAR, and ATL?
Ok. That’s it. Have a Safe & Happy Thanksgiving, Ray. As always, THANKS for your time and Much Appreciated!
By Ray Flowers on Nov 21, 2012
Steve – FJax not certain. Amendola beat up. Dont like either with certainty this early in week. Right now, I would go Leshoure out of that group. Redskins on D.
Happy Turkey Day to you too.