Player Profile: Dan Haren
December 6th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Dan Haren is through as an effective big league hurler. That’s what you will hear from many who assess his failures in the 2012 season. I for one am not ready to throw Mr. Haren under the bus without analyzing his efforts in detail to see if he was indeed just as bad last season as some seem to think he was, or if there is still something that this dart throwing righty still has to offer in the fantasy game.
From 2005-2011 Dan Haren threw at least 215 innings each season, and his total of 1,581.1 innings was second in baseball (1,588.1 IP for CC Sabathia). He was the workhorses’ workhorse. Last season injuries sent him to the DL for the first time in his career as he threw 176.2 innings, a total most hurlers would love to achieve each year (at least he made 30 starts for the 8th straight season). Obviously his workload is a concern, sooner or later bodies break down, so it’s fair to wonder if the heavy workload that Haren has handled has led him to a point where he just cannot be counted on for huge inning totals.
Haren did win 12 games last season, a moderate total for an arm that has won at least 14 games six times. Once again, Haren and Sabathia are the only two pitchers in baseball who have won 12 games each of the last eight years. The righty and lefty duo of workloads also is the righty-lefty duo of wins.
Oh, but that ERA of Haren was terrible, considering his body of work, you say. Haren owns a 3.66 ERA for his career, and only once in the previous five years had he exceeded that mark (3.91 in 2010). So what happened with his 4.33 ERA last season? Was that high ERA “earned?” Let’s investigate.
Haren’s K/9 rate fell to 7.23, a six year low. It was only 0.02 off his 2011 mark, and just a bit below his 7.60 career mark so it’s not doom and gloom time but it is worth noting, the reduction in the rate I mean. As for his walk rate, Haren’s 1.94 BB/9 was only slightly above his 1.89 career rate. That’s an elite mark. Combine the two and you end up with a 3.74 K/BB ratio. Again, an elite mark. Yes it was a 5-year low for Haren, but the mark was still the 17th best in baseball. That would seem to indicate that Haren can still be a pretty fair hurler, even if his days of huge strikeout totals are gone.
Haren’s WHIP should never be a huge concern given that he just doesn’t put anyone on base via the walk (that fact should always help to shield him from posting poor WHIP marks). Even with last seasons down effort his 1.29 WHIP was still just below the big league average in 2012 of 1.31. That WHIP was also an eight year high by the way, and it was still better than the league average. The man owns a career mark of 1.18 and you have to be impressed by that.
I focus on homers allowed a lot, an in this respect Haren was beaten around the yard. His 1.43 mark, per nine innings, was the worst of his career. His career mark is 1.05, an over the previous five years that mark was never above 1.19. Part of the blame obviously lies at the feet of a career worst 12.8 HR/F ratio (career 10.5). Perhaps part of the blame is the loss of velocity (88.5 mph on his heater versus 90.8 for his career). That heat needs to come back. I’m not saying Haren can’t still be successful at 88.5 mph, he certainly can be, but it will obviously be more difficult without the heat for him to return to his previous elite levels. Truth be told though, the guy just knows how to pitch. I bet he could get batters out throwing 85 mph. So will the homer total regress in 2013? History says yes. Logic says yes. I say yes.
In the end, Haren isn’t likely to ever again be the hurler that struck out 223 batters with a 3.14 ERA in 2009. Still, a return to the NL with the Nationals can’t do anything but help (it also won’t hurt for him to likely be slotted as the 4th starter behind Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman). Plus, he’s on a one year, $13 million deal that gives the Nationals only a moderate amount of risk while providing Haren with one year to prove that he can still be an impressive hurler worthy of one last multi-year, big money deal. Haren figures to be a strong NL-only option, and I would bet that he improves on his ratio marks from last season making him a solid mixed league option as well.
By Ray Flowers
By Steve on Dec 6, 2012
Ray,
I was hoping the Sox would make a play for Haren, but if I were him, I’d go to the Nationals, too. Better WS odds, better team, and very good, young nucleus. Now, to the fantasy football Q’s & A’s. I’ll keep them short and simple:
(a) Which 2 RBs to start: Forte, LeShoure, F-Jax, Dwyer, Reggie Bush?
(b) Who to start in the Flex: One of the remaining RBs from above or Garcon?
(c) Which D/ST to start: SF, CLE, STL, TB, or PIT?
THANKS, Ray! I love the baseball player evals, too!
By Ray Flowers on Dec 6, 2012
Steve – Haren is a nice fit in the NL, good choice by him.
Forte, LeShoure.
Garcon at Flex.
Niners.
Good luck
By Joe M on Dec 6, 2012
Hey Ray
Honestly not sold on Haren even with his 5 year track record. There’s only one reason I would draft Haren in this coming years draft and you said it in your last paragraph “while providing Haren with one year to prove that he can still be an impressive hurler worthy of one last multi-year, big money deal.”
Somehow ballplayers become supermen in contract year..
By Fish on Dec 6, 2012
Hello Ray,
Winter Meetings and Fantasy Football playoffs. Life is good. I have some big decisions to make for the first round and I could really use your help. 10 team league, NON PPR
Need 2 RBs, 2 WRS, a flex and a TE.
At RB: CJ2K, Ridley, LeShoure
At WR: AJ (in), Cobb, Cruz (Torrey Smith)
Unfortunately, at least one of the above has to ride the pine, and I don’t know who. I’ve been sitting Cruz lately, but that New Orleans matchup is mighty appealing. Matchups would indicate Ridley, but he’s been my best RB all year. Can I sit him? I know it’s a great problem to have, but damn!
At TE, Myers over Olsen?
THANK YOU RAY!
By Steve on Dec 6, 2012
THANKS, Ray! Good luck this week!
By Ray Flowers on Dec 6, 2012
Fish – Wish it was more baseball, but that will come soon enough I guess. I even started the 2013 DRAFT GUIDE this week… ahhhh
Ridley, CJ2K
AJ, Cruz
Cobb
Myers.
Even though PPR see – http://fantasyalarm.com/in-the-trenches-the-fantasy-playoffs-begin/
By Ray Flowers on Dec 6, 2012
Joe M – Don’t overlook the fact that many might overlook him too… if he falls a couple of rounds in the draft, he’s worth a look.
By Chris C on Dec 6, 2012
Hey Ray, just made a trade, what do you think of it…
12 team Dynasty
15 keepers (C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, rf, lf, cf, 2 util, 2 sp, rp, 2 minor lg)
I gave up:
David Wright and a 2nd round pick (#19 overall)
i still have a number one (10 overall) and two 2nd rd picks (15, 16)
I got in return:
Dustin Pedroia ans Jered Weaver
Pedroia replaces Jose Altuve
My SP are now Weaver and Latos instead of Shields and Latos.
I think i made a good deal. What do you think Ray? For my SP #2 should i keep Latos or Shields?
Thanks,
Chris
By Chris J on Dec 7, 2012
Hey Ray, I am hoping you can help me with my flex spot for this week. G.Jennings, B. Wells, J. Dwyer, Torrey Smith, Leshoure, or Sproles? It is a 12 team PPR. Also,Should I stick with D. Murray at RB or go Sproles?
By Ray Flowers on Dec 7, 2012
Chris J – I would start Sproles over Murray in a PPR. Very tough call, both low end RB2 this week.
At flex, I would go with T Smith. Know he’s an up and down, but WAS allows 2nd most pts to WRs in a PPR setup this season.
By Chris J on Dec 7, 2012
Thanks Ray for taking the time! I love listening to you on XM…great show.
By Joe M on Dec 7, 2012
Absolutely. He’s definitely one of those guys I take the risk on if he falls in the draft
By Troy on Dec 9, 2012
Hi Ray,
Hope you’re still taking questions this morning.
I can go with 2 WR’s between Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, and Randall Cobb.
Who gets left out?
Thanks for your time and advice!
Troy
By Ray Flowers on Dec 10, 2012
Troy – If you have start/sit questions, have to get them to my before Sunday. I only answer on Twitter Sunday, 10a-1p EDT @siriusxmfantasy.
By Chris C on Dec 11, 2012
Hey Ray…would really like your opinion on this
I just made a trade, what do you think of it…
12 team Dynasty
15 keepers (C, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, rf, lf, cf, 2 util, 2 sp, rp, 2 minor lg)
I gave up: David Wright and a 2nd round pick (#19 overall) i still have a number one (10 overall) and two 2nd rd picks (15, 16)
I got in return: Dustin Pedroia and Jered Weaver
Pedroia replaces Jose Altuve
My SP are now Weaver and Latos instead of Shields and Latos.
I think i made a good deal. What do you think Ray? Also for my SP #2 should i keep Latos or Shields? Thanks,
Chris C
By Ray Flowers on Dec 11, 2012
Chris C – With 15 keepers and 12 teams, draft picks aren’t as important since so many are kept. The 19th overall pick is like 199 overall. Not much likely to be there of huge importance.
This is a must do. Pedroia for Wright is fair to consider, and Weaver is an elite arm who will blow away whomever you would draft. Slam dunk win for you.
By jb(not JB) on Mar 2, 2013
Ray, I need your advice…. 6×6 with OPS 14 team
Roto 5 keepers no penalties
I can trade Pujols for Kemp. Do it, or am I nuts?
thanks
By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2013
jb (not JB) – I’d get Kemp. Pujols certainly solid, and his OPS could easily be better, but Kemp is a more well rounded player.