Player Profile: Brandon McCarthy
December 11th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Late last season, Brandon McCarthy took a line drive off his head. Thoughts of him continuing his baseball career were put on hold as he was taken to the hospital and forced to undergo brain surgery to stabilize his body and save his life. The prognosis was guarded at first, but eventually he was out of the proverbial woods and it seemed like he would be able to live a normal life. Even better at this point is that it appears likely that he will be able resume his baseball career in 2013, excellent news after the scary incident that had us all worried about his life. The D’backs decided that the free agent was worth the risk and have agreed to a two year deal worth $15.5 million dollars to have McCarthy hurl the baseball for them two next two seasons. Was that a wise investment by the Diamondbacks or should they just have signed Joe Blanton for $15 million, the price he agreed to with the Angels (for more on Blanton, see his Player Profile)?
For his career McCarthy owns a 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP an a 37-39 record. Those numbers, combined with a 6.15 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB ratio, paint him as about as average a pitcher as there is in the game. However, there’s more to this pitcher than his career long numbers, much more in fact. Over the last two seasons, 43 starts with the Athletics, Brandon has taken his game up a notch. He may have only won two more games than he lost (17-15), but his ERA has been a sparkling 3.29, his WHIP an impressive 1.18, and his K/BB ratio has shot into the stratosphere at 4.00. Not only are those impressive numbers for an AL hurler, they are just flat out strong totals (the ERA is 22nd in baseball, he’s allowed just the 18th most base runners in the game, and his K/BB ratio is 10th among all pitchers who have thrown at least 275 innings). Now it’s making a lot more sense why the D’backs were happy to give him a two year deal for just over 15 million. Alas, it’s not all unicorns and rainbows with McCarthy.
The most obvious issue with Brandon is a lack of health. I’m not talking about his head injury, I’m talking about his body and more specifically his shoulder. He’s altered his mechanics over the years to compensate for his shoulder, but the fact remains that he’s been a starting pitcher since 2007 and only once in that time has he thrown 170 innings. Moreover, only once in that time has he thrown even 115 innings in a season. The guy just doesn’t have a track record of staying healthy, and it doesn’t matter how talented or effective you are if you aren’t on the field. His health is a HUGE concern.
Though his K/BB ratio has been excellent the last two years and speaks to his understanding of how to pitch, it’s all about his control (in each of the past two seasons his BB/9 mark has been under 2.00). He just doesn’t beat himself which is fantastic, but the other side of that coin is that he also isn’t a strikeout arm which does significantly impact his fantasy outlook. The only time that he’s reached 6.50 batters per nine innings in the K department was way back in 2006. For his career that 6.15 K/9 mark would equate to 123 strikeout per 180 innings pitched. Two points. (1) He’s never thrown 180 innings in a season. (2) Even if he did maintain that rate over 180 innings that total of 123 strikeouts is still just seven more than Craig Kimbrel had last season out of the bullpen. It’s a terrible mark for a starter and would have placed McCarthy 84th in the game in ’12. The lack of strikeout may not hinder his effectiveness on the hill, but it’s a significant red flag in the fantasy game.
McCarthy, who famously has become a bit of a sabermetric geek, learned that given his skill set he would be better off inducing ground balls versus allowing fly balls. He therefore attempted to tailor his pitches to induce grounders, and rather amazingly, he’s had a ton of success doing that. Over the first five seasons of his career his fly ball ratio was at least 41.7 percent each season. The last two years that mark has been 32.2 and 35.1 percent. It’s not overly difficult to understand why his performance has turned around the past two years. He’s pitched more to his strength and worked hard at keeping the ball down in the zone.
So where does all of this leave us? When healthy and on the hill the past two years, McCarthy has been a very impressive big league hurler. There are still a handful of issues you need to be aware of before rostering him. (1) He has an exceedingly difficult time staying health. His track record is one that is littered with DL stints. (2) We assume that he will be fully healthy and capable of performing at his 2011-12 levels in 2013. I certainly hope that is the case, but he did suffer a life threatening injury so I’d like to see him have some success on the hill before just blindly expecting a return to his previous levels. (3) He doesn’t strike batters out nearly enough to be a truly dynamic fantasy weapon. (4) Though he now gets to pitch in places like San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles, in ballparks that favor pitchers, his home park is not so kind to hurlers. In 2012 his home park in Oakland was 22nd in runs and 23rd in homers according to Park Factors. The park in Arizona was 6th in runs and 6th in homers. The move from the AL to the NL might not be as much of a positive as you initially thought given the more difficult home environment he will be pitching in. I wish McCarthy luck and wouldn’t at all mind if he was on my fantasy team, but I also wouldn’t draft him as an upper echelon arm given the previously noted concerns. For me, he’s 5th starter type in mixed leagues.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Athletics, Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks
By Jim on Dec 11, 2012
Hi Ray, Thanks for the Player Profiles. Man, I miss baseball.
I wondered if, sometime when you take a break from the Profiles, you plan to update/repeat an article from a couple years ago. It focused on pitcher skills like WHIP, K/9, K/BB, etc., and it really helped when I was trying to do some value-shopping during the draft. Happy Holidays!
By Ray Flowers on Dec 11, 2012
Jim – Thanks for the note. The articles on how to scout pitchers – which categories to target, how to evaluate them etc. – will appear in the DRAFT GUIDE. I’ll have multiple articles on pitchers, especially focusing on things like the middle relievers. Likely target day of Feb 1st for release.
By Vince on Dec 12, 2012
Hey Ray,
Thanks for the help. I need help again at WR.
PPR
Starting C johnson and D alexander
Need 1: T Smith(who scares me) G Jennings(in my opinion has upside), J blackmon,(lots of targets) J Maclin( for some reason I want to play him over the others) TY Hilton,(boom or bust)
In another league who do I start: Need 3:
Julio Jones, L Moore, J Gordon, D Alexander, P garcon, L Fitz, J Maclin
Thanks Ray,
Vince
By Ryan on Dec 12, 2012
Hi Ray, hope you are enjoying the holiday season! Non-PPR- I need 2 out of these 3 to start at my flex positions.
D. Alexander, R. Wayne and S. Ridley. Right now leaning toward DX and Wayne given Ridley’s matchup with SF.
Thanks as always.
By Ray Flowers on Dec 12, 2012
Ryan – Holiday season is off to a good start. Let’s hope it keeps going that way.
Wayne and Ridley. For sake of full disclosure, in non ppr, there is only one pt between ridley and da in my projections.
By Ray Flowers on Dec 12, 2012
Vince – If it was my team, TSmith would be my play.
In group II – Jones, Alexander, Garcon.
By Vince on Dec 13, 2012
Hey Ray, thanks for the help. Not that I’m questioning your pick, but could you please explain why you would pick Torey Smith over lets say Maclin or Jennings in a full point PPR. I’m just so nervous on playing Smith since he has only caught 5 or more passes once in the last 9 games. It seems that Boldin is becoming more of a factor than Smith. I trust your judgment I just need to ease my mind. Thanks again.
By Ray Flowers on Dec 13, 2012
Vince – Boldin is just a chain mover. Smith has to deal with Bailey, and that’s a concern, but the offense is about to open up with a new OC. Plus, you talk about Smith struggling, what the heck has Maclin done? Huge last week, but the last seven weeks he has two scores and just two games of more than 55 yards. GB offense is impressive, but Rodgers is struggling of late, and Jennings has played in five games and not once reach 50 yards. I’m not trusting that in the fantasy playoffs.
By CB on Dec 13, 2012
Hey Ray,
I’m in a 12 team non ppr. For a flex position, Would you start bryce brown, deangelo Williams (if Stewart is out), Antonio brown, David Wilson (if Bradshaw is out), or dez Bryant, if healthy? I just need one.
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Dec 13, 2012
CB – Brown is the best option in my world. He plays tonight, so you gotta pull the trigger. Wilson still has to deal with Bradshaw and Bryant with his health. Too risky to wait on those two – what if both turn out badly? Go Brown.
By Tim on Dec 13, 2012
Ray- standard non-ppr scoring league
Who would you start between Ray Rice and Bryce Brown?
Yes typically Ray Rice is the easy choice however there are several points to make here:
1. Rice was on the field for 70% of offensive snaps last week
2. Rice has minor hip pointer
3. Rice is at home vs a tough Denver defense who’s run defense is one of best in league giving an average of 3.68 ypc.
4. New offensive coordinator this week could mean increased work load for Rice?
5. Brown is at home versus Bengals D (19th vs run giving up 4.22 ypc.
6. Brown ran crazy versus Dallas (4.32 ypc) and Carolina D (4.66ypc). Bengals D rates similar to Dallas
7. Bengals have talented pass defense so Philadelphia will have to run.
Typically I would start Rice in a heartbeat, however Brown has had 2 monster games in his last 3 while Rice has not had one of that level this year.
What do you think?
Thanks!
By Matt w on Dec 13, 2012
Ray, PPR league Dalton or Rodgers? I would like to hear your thoughts on both their match ups. I would start Rodgers easy but, the weather in Chicago scares me. It says its supposed to be 40 degrees with 15mph winds and 20 percent chance of rain and Dalton has a very favorable match up, so what do ya think? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Dec 13, 2012
Matt W – Rodgers. He has been down of late, and Dalton is a solid play, but I’m still going down with Rodgers over Dalton. For more on the duo, see this article I wrote:
http://fantasyalarm.com/in-the-trenches-targets-hunches-and-numbers/
By Ray Flowers on Dec 13, 2012
Tim – Re: Ray Rice vs. Bryce Brown.
As I pointed out, IF Brown played 16 games at the level he has played the last three weeks he would run for 1,800 yards and 21 scores (see – http://fantasyalarm.com/in-the-trenches-targets-hunches-and-numbers/)
As for Rice, he’s still the better play if for no other reason than he has been good for years and is always consistent, something Brown can’t match. Rice also has a better QB to work with. Add in the fact that Rice is a beast out of the backfield, his floor is so much higher than Brown’s. Rice has never scored fewer than 10 points this season in PPR. He’s also been over 15 pts 10 times. Plus, he’s an all-pro over an all two week guy. Just no contest in my mind, but I would say Brown is an elite RB2 this week.
By Benny on Dec 14, 2012
Hi Ray – appreciate your time as always. Would you start Romo or Kapernick this week? And would you go Dez, Britt, or Hilton in a ppr? Gracias!
By Ray Flowers on Dec 14, 2012
Benny – Colin K, but he’s barely a QB1 this week. I would go Bryant if he plays. If not, or if reports are bad, go Britt.