Player Profile: Salvador Perez
January 3rd, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
I had the gall to suggest in late December that I wasn’t sold on Salvador Perez being a .300 hitter with 20 homer power for 2013. Seems like I touched a nerve because a whole lot of people called me out on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account for the statement. I thought I would take more than 140 characters to try and make my point this week.
* I went beyond just the suggestion on Twitter as I ran a poll asking how folks would draft Perez compared to others at the catcher’s position.
Here’s what the basic argument was with Perez and why most thought he would be a star.
He hit .311 in 148 at-bats in 2011.
He hit .301 in 289 at-bats in 2012.
He hit 11 homers in 76 games in 2012.
Obviously he is therefore going to hit .300 with 20+ homers if he gets 500 at-bats in 2013.
Let’s see…
Yes it is true that Perez has hit .311 over the course of 437 big league at-bats. Is that indicative of what we should expect from him in 2013? Perez posted a .362 BABIP as a first year player and that number predictably regressed in 2012 falling all the way to .299. It certainly happens, but it is a bit strange to see a guy hit .301 with a BABIP below .300. I’d suggest it’s not likely to continue like that, not to mention that his BABIP in the minors in 2011-12 was slightly lower than his big league mark at .311. Just pointing that out.
Following up on the BABIP talk, let’s look at his line drive rate. In 2011 that mark was 29.2 percent. He’d have to be the greatest hitter of all-time to keep that up. He isn’t and he didn’t as the mark fell to 24.2 percent in 2012. That’s still a massive number though, and one that I wouldn’t feel comfortable expecting to occur again in 2013. If logic and history aren’t enough for you to go on here, how about this fact; as a minor leaguer in the 2011-12 Perez posted a line drive rate of 19.9 percent which just so happens to be the big league average. It certainly doesn’t seem wise to expect him to match his current 25.8 percent career mark with the Royals given the totality of the data.
I would also like to point out that this guy just doesn’t walk. He has coaxed a total of 19 walks over the course of his 463 career plate appearances. That rate equates to a walk total of 21 walks per 502 plate appearances. Folks, Adam Dunn walked 26 times in the month of May last year. Moreover, do you know how many guys hit .300 last year with a walk rate as low as the 3.9 percent mark that Perez had? It’s not a long list. Here are the names… there are none. Not a single guy with 502 plate appearances in 2012 hit .300 with a walk rate under 4.0 percent. None. No one did in 2011 or 2010 either. The last guy to do it was Miguel Tejada in 2009 when he hit .313 with a 2.8 percent mark. The problem is that when you don’t see pitches and take a walk you can be pitched to. It’s also very hard for these type of hitters to pull out of a slump when they find themselves in one. It’s true that Perez makes good contact, his K-rate of 8.9 percent is very low enabling him to post a basically league average 0.40 BB/K mark, but the lack of walks are a big concern for me and should be for you as well if you are thinking he’s going to hit .300 year after year.
Sorry folks, but that’s 0-for-3 for Perez if you are trying to make the point that he is a lock to hit .300 in 2013.
What about the power you say?
(1) The easiest thing in the world is to say that ‘he hit 11 homers in 289 at-bats last year so he’ll hit 20 in a full season this year.’ Such an argument, while a good one to make at a bar on a Friday night after five midori sour’s (and let me tell you that you have to be very secure in your manhood to order one of those at a bar), just doesn’t hold up in the light of day. Even if we give Perez 500 at-bats in 2013 as a projection, an I would be remiss if I didn’t state that there were only six catchers in baseball that reached that mark last season, and let him maintain his rate of one homer per 26.3 at-bats he would still only go deep 19 times in 500 at-bats.
(2) Perez has only 14 homers in 437 career big league at bats.
(3) Perez has only 20 homers in 1,278 minor league at-bats.
(4) That’s 34 homers in 1,715 big league at-bats. What would that equate to over our hypothetical 500 at-bat season? That’s 9.9 homers folks.
(5) Perez had a fly ball rate of 27.7 percent in 2011-12 in the minors. During his big league action in 2011-12 he’s had a fly ball rate of 30.9 percent. That equates to a fly ball rate of roughly 30 percent. The big league average is about 36 percent. Therefore, if Perez is going to hit 20 homers with an inferior fly ball rate, he’s going to need to be money in the HR/F conversation ratio. He’s not. In his 115 game big league career that mark is only 11.5 percent (the big league average is usually right around 10 percent). That mark in the minors (2011-12) was 10.4 percent.
I’m sorry folks but Perez simply doesn’t profile as a .300 hitter with 20+ homer power in 2013. Could he hit .300? Sure. Could he hit 20 homers? I can’t say it’s not possible, but I highly doubt it. Would I bet any money that he would reach both marks in the coming campaign? Absolutely not. Don’t take this to mean that I wouldn’t want Perez as one of my two catchers in a mixed league. I’d have no problem at all calling his name out on draft day, but the chances of him ending up on any of my teams is small since there seems to be such a fervor over adding him in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam Dunn, Miguel Tejada, Royals, Salvador Perez
By Dale Murphy on Jan 3, 2013
Excellent insight Ray. As someone who is considering keeping Salvador, I really enjoyed it. Thanks. Ya know, I started out as a catcher. This is my last year of eligibility, don’t you think I should get in the hall of fame?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 3, 2013
Dale Murphy – Yep, I knew you were a catcher since you were my favorite player growing up. I traded your Rookie Topp’s card though for the 1984 Topp’s Set when I was in 8th grade. Sorry about that.
By joebagels on Jan 3, 2013
Hey Ray, I’m in a 14 team Keeper H2H points lg. I Keep 5- I plan on Keeping E5 (23rd), Medlen(22nd), CJ Wilson(20), Allen Craig(21) and Rizzo(bonus minor keeper) all can be kept on avg 3-5 more years…
My dilemma – I have Cueto (19th) or Samardzija(19) I can keep either one, or even both by replacing one of the above, or I was offered Lawrie(19th) and Shelby Miller (MiL) for Cueto(19) and d’Arnaud(MiL). (2 years left for JC or BL)
so Do I trade for Lawrie or maybe Keep Cueto or Samardzija… an FYI QS(+5pts), ER(-2)
BTW can’t wait for the guide, I’m a happy donator!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 4, 2013
JoeBagels – Youre already holding a hurler, so I dont think you have to keep one more, let alone two more. Just keep one of the hurlers. At this point, I’d actually keep Cueto over Wilson (esp. consider his struggles in 2nd half and offseason surgery). If you wanted to keep WIlson over Smardzija, I’m OK with that.
As for deal… Lawrie is an EXCELLENT keeper at that cost. Personally, I’d rather have a potential all star hitter than all star pitcher. I would do the deal based on that. Hard losing dAranaud who will be a star, but Miller could be the same.
By john on Jan 4, 2013
hey, I have to keep 10 guys..10 team league, points league..What do you think
Mauer, Miggy, Kinsler, Hanley, Lawrie, Headley. Stanton, Hamilton, Goldschimdt
Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Moore, Kennedy, Sale, Bumgarner, Bundy
Since i can only keep 10 and i think i have a couple more keep worthy guys im trying to package like a zimmerman and kennedy for a kershaw or felix..if not them who should i target..thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jan 4, 2013
John – Great group. Here is what I would do.
Cabrera
Stanton
Hamilton
Kinsler
Hanley
Lawrie
Mauer
Moore
Bumgarner
Goldschmidt or Sale
I’d lean Goldschmidt.
By joebagels on Jan 4, 2013
Thanks Ray, I like Cueto better than Wilson as well. I just left him off list bc That’s who he asked for in the trade… So it was basically Lawrie or Cueto. I appreciate the advice!
By Bryan on Jan 5, 2013
Keeping Mauer over Goldschimdt – why? In a ten team league you can get catcher anywhere. Keep Goldschmidt and Sale and dump Mauer. I am all for keeping offense over pitching but not a C over two young studs. I would feel good keeping Sale and Goldschimdt and rolling out Lucroy and then picking up Ruiz or another catcher who shows up mid-way thru the season like Rosario did. Just one guy who does not value Catcher unless his name is Buster Posey.
New to the site and enjoying the player break downs. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 5, 2013
Bryan – You can get a .320 hitting catcher anywhere? I know I’m being over the top here, but Mauer is an amazing hitter. As I’ve written the last two days, I’m not sold on Perez/Rosario living up to the hype. Napoli obviously isn’t 100%. Avila coming off a down year and injuries. Pierzynski has no shot to repeat. Ruiz is suspended the first month… the catcher’s position isn’t exactly deep right now, at least with elite plays.
Goldschmidt is likely to be a star, so there’s no reason to worry about keeping him if that’s the choice you make.
By Bryan on Jan 5, 2013
BA and Mauer wins hands down, but where else does contribute? I guess I would like to know what the stat cats are as well. I realize Ruiz is suspended for 25 games, but Lucroy provides the BA and if you keep Goldschimdt and Sale over Mauer, it is a win to me. I just feel a Catcher who nobody saw coming pops up every season.
If it is a 5×5, Mauer provides BA but what else does he provide? Not SBs, and not more HRs and RBIs than Goldschimdt. Plus a 1B who steals 10+ SBs is always a plus as well.
I guess my thought is Sale and Goldschimdt contribute more than Mauer paired with sale or Goldschmi. Plus, does MIN lineup scream run producer? Then add the fragility factor to keeping Mauer. I just feel we know what Mauer is and Sale or Goldschimdt are still rising as far as their abilities.
In season trading comes into play and C is just not a position that most seasoned fantasy players are willing to trade for. Where Goldschimdt or Sale could provide more value in season to fill a hole via trade. Good debate and thanks for the reply.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 6, 2013
Bryan – Mauer doesn’t have big speed, but he did steal eight bags, 2nd most at the position. In a straight up with Lucroy… he had more runs, more hits, more doubles, more RBI, more walks, better OBP etc. Plus, I think you might be overvaluing Lucroy too much. He’s nowhere hear the class of Mauer, and there is no chance he hits .320 again.
Also, it’s relative to position that should be looked at. Mauer has no show to out homer and RBI Goldschmidt. However, that’s not the issue. The issue is how much better is Mauer than the other catchers. Look at Mauer vs Lucroy. He doubled Lucroy in steals, scored 35 more runs, and knocked in 27 more. That gives him a massive positional advantage. Mauer is an elite catcher. Period. Gold flashed great speed for a 1B, but 20-92-82 is blah for a first sacker. I mean Chris Davis went 30-85-75 ya know? It isn’t really fair to compare a .320-10-70 guy in Mauer to a .280-30-90 guy in Gold w/o taking into acct their positions on the field.
By Bryan on Jan 6, 2013
I think you are missing my point. In a keeper league, I would rather keep Sale and Gold over Mauer. I am using Lucroy and other options at C as viable late fill-ins at the C position.
I agree Mauer is more valuable than any of my examples, but not as an attractive option as Gold or Sale in a keeper format.
In a simple re-draft league, I agree keeping Mauer seems prudent because of the production he provides from a weak position. But in a keeper league I would rather gamble on the upside of the unknown ceiling in Gold and Sale over a catcher any day.
We know what Mauer is, do we know what Sale and Gold are yet? And after what they showed last season, I would want to see what their ceiling maybe. We haven’t seen the best of either player yet, IMO. I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Mauer’s injury history makes me cautious about investing too much in him as well.
By Ben on Jan 8, 2013
Ray – You must have been bitten by a Perez at an early age. You forgot the most important statistic of all – Perez is only 22 years old. Catchers tend to gain power later in their careers, with some exceptions. Using statistics when they guy was young need explanation. For instance, in 2008 he had a total of 95 PA and hit .361 with 1 HR and 16 RBI, all in rookie league. In 2009 (rk and low A) 396 PA, 2 HR 45 RBI..he also batted a miserly .267 that year. In 2010 he made his first step up in power while playing in A+ with a .290 BA, 7 HR and 45 RBI, again in 396 PA. 2011 saw him graduate first to AA, then to AAA. This time, 358 PA, .290 BA with 10 HR and 53 RBI. He graduated to the bigs that year and did well, batting .361 with 2 HR and 23 RBI as a 21 year old! What’s not to like? We all know what he did last year, at the ripe old age of 22, but you’ve got to tear the guy down with your analysis? Some guys take more than looking at some of the more obscure numbers. Some guys are just good ball players, and this one looks like a young man who has progressively gotten better while advancing rapidly through the various levels of the game. Maybe you need to cut him some slack and look at ALL the numbers, and not just the ones that support your personal feelings about the kid.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 8, 2013
Ben – I appreciate your reasoned argument. I disagree with you, but you certainly raise points that should be considered.
To be clear, I have never, at any point, had Perez on a single one of my teams.
I’m not trying to tear him down. I’m trying to help manage expectations. Here is a very likely scenario for 2013. Perez goes out and hits .285 with lets say 15 homers. People say ‘nice season, but not what I expected.’ Instead, a season of .285-15 should be viewed as a positive.
Baseball HQ, in the excellent Forecaster, doesn’t have Perez hitting .300 or going deep 20 times.
Rotowire doesn’t have Perez hitting .300 or going deep 20 times.
Those are just a couple of examples of others in the industry that agree with my assessment.
Time will tell of course, but I’m not backing down from my thoughts – I still think peoples expectations are too high. It’s nothing personal – I have nothing against Perez. It’s not about “feelings” with me, never is. It’s about data, risk, probability — as it always is.
By Ben on Jan 9, 2013
Ray – If Perez went .280 and 15 HR (and I’d assume something along the lines of 70 RBI) i’d be very happy with that for his next season. It would continue to show improvement while a drop in BA.
Having said that, his BA at the MLB level is a solid .311 in 463 PA. Six years in the minors it was a solid .289 in 1397 PA. His work in 2011 and 2012, in both the upper minors and the pros,m support a BA around the .300 level +/-.010. He has developing power…I have already shown that.
Forecaster is good, but it’s projections. They are often far from accurate…simply numbers to work with. Like you I have watched players develop over many years.
To make a comparison, Posey came out quick. In his case his experience in college verified his skill set and he advanced quickly through the pro ranks. Perez was signed as a teenager out of Venezuela.
Understand I am not saying Perez is a Posey comparable. Simply discussing their rise through the minors. Posey was older and had more experience at a higher level (FSU) and came into the league in his 20′s. Perez started out much younger but his development has been easily charted and he entered the league in his 20′s. If his skill set settles in the .280-.290 range and his HR in the 15-20 range, does that not make him, if not elite, near elite at the catcher position?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 9, 2013
Ben – I don’t give out number projections, because I agree they aren’t accurate enough of the time. I merely pointed out that other respected sources agreed with me. I’ll say it this way. Those in the industry do NOT think a .300-20 season is a lock. Everyone who isn’t in the industry thinks it is. Take that for what it’s worth.
I know what you are trying to say with your comparison, but you might as well have compared Perez to Mike Piazza. He’s not, will never be, as talented as Posey. Comparing anyone to Posey isn’t fair to the other person.
Hitting .280 with 18 homers does not make you an elite hitter at catcher, at least no in my mind.
Regardless of what you or I think, I’ll restate one salient point from the piece.
I would also like to point out that this guy just doesn’t walk. He has coaxed a total of 19 walks over the course of his 463 career plate appearances. That rate equates to a walk total of 21 walks per 502 plate appearances. Folks, Adam Dunn walked 26 times in the month of May last year. Moreover, do you know how many guys hit .300 last year with a walk rate as low as the 3.9 percent mark that Perez had? It’s not a long list. Here are the names… there are none. Not a single guy with 502 plate appearances in 2012 hit .300 with a walk rate under 4.0 percent. None. No one did in 2011 or 2010 either. The last guy to do it was Miguel Tejada in 2009 when he hit .313 with a 2.8 percent mark. The problem is that when you don’t see pitches and take a walk you can be pitched to.
History simply isn’t kind to this type of hitter.
By Polka on Jan 9, 2013
Keep Mauer, elite Catcher
Goldschmidt, #15-22 1B?? Maybe?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 9, 2013
Polka – Goldschmidt will be a top-10 1B in every draft, probably top-5 in many. His current ADP in the NFBC is #54 overall… Mauer is #58.
By Reed on Jan 10, 2013
It is interesting how certain players — Kipnis, Perez, etc. — inspire excitement among fantasy players while others, like Goldschmidt don’t seem to do so. I’m not sure what the difference is, but Goldschmidt certainly possesses some nice tools and contributes in SBs, which is nice from a 1B.
He’s got a .200+ ISO (and minor league numbers indicate that his ceiling might be higher than that), he’ll take a walk (10% walk rate), and he hits for a good average (.280s). I could see him easily posting a .900+ OPS in 2013.
By Polka on Jan 10, 2013
I think part of it may be thinner posistions, but Goldy has re-caught my eye after Ray’s enlightenment above…I was sour on him too, and still kind of am, but paying $28 for him or $60 in Votto makes you think about where your needs are….
By don fisher on Jan 14, 2013
Ray , have the fifth pick in 12 team draft. Based on what I’ve seen; my choices most likely will be between Mccutchen, Kemp, Cano and Pujols. I’m leaning towards Cano due to scarcity but have never had the chance at Albert before. Thanx for your input.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 14, 2013
Don Fisher – I would not take Pujols. If you want to take Cano cause of his talent/consistency I understand. I would not take him solely for position scarcity reasons though. I would take both Kemp and McC right before Cano.
By Ben on Jan 16, 2013
One more for you – And please, keep trashing him. It will make it so much easier for me to get him late in the re-drafts.
MLB.com reports Royals catcher Salvador Perez was named rookie of the year in the Venezuelan Winter League. Perez hit .371 with eight homers, 10 doubles and 39 RBI in 32 games for Tiburones. He also had 23 runs, .412 on-base percentage, .629 slugging percentage and 1.041 OPS.
Yeah, I know Ray…this ain’t the bigs. But it IS pedigree, and the more I see the more I think you and the “experts” are wrong. Of course, I was one of those experts for a few years, so I guess that makes me a contrarian.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 16, 2013
Ben – We shall see when the real games are played.
1 – I’ve NEVER trashed Salvador Perez. You’re doing what EVERYONE does. You read something I write – and somehow your mind morphs my words into something I did not say. It happens every single day of my life. I wish people would just stick to what I say/write, but they never do. My conclusion on Perez says: “Don’t take this to mean that I wouldn’t want Perez as one of my two catchers in a mixed league.” Saying Perez isn’t a top-10 C is not ‘trashing’ him.
2- The Venezuelan Winter League MVP – Recent winners include Gregor Blanco and Jesus Guzman. Consider me unimpressed.
3 – It’s not just me. I’ve pointed out various other sources that also agree with my line of thought on Perez.
You can think whatever you like with any player. It’s a free country. I don’t agree with you. I don’t agree with people about Mike Trout. I get it. I’m just getting tired, this preseason more than any other (and it just started), of people simply arguing with everything just to argue. If you read my Twitter acct you would think I’m wrong about everything. Yet somehow I’ve got all those followers, and I’ve been doing fantasy full-time for more than a decade, so I must be doing something right.
I’m NOT always right. I freely admit that.
I would say that more times than not I’m right.
People ONLY remember the mistakes and not all the successes. Just part of the business I guess.