Player Profile: Edwin Encarnacion
January 7th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Jason Collette of Rotowire.com and Cory Schwartz of MLB.com and I all have an unhealthy love for Edwin Encarnacion (fittingly, Cory outbid me for Encarnacion last year in Tout Wars – I was the runner up bidder. Cory, by the way, was sitting immediately to my left at the draft while Jason was sitting immediately to my right recording the results, real time, for the internet audience). For years the three of us pushed people to draft EE, and for years we looked only mildly intelligent. However, with one fell swoop EE made us all look like geniuses with not only his best season but one of the better all-around seasons by a third baseman in the 21st century. What can Edwin do for an encore, and will Jason, Cory and myself be pushing him as hard in 2013 as we have the past few years?
Looking just at the results, EE had a HOF type season for a third sacker as he hit .280 with 42 homers, 110 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 13 steals. In the history of baseball there have been six seasons of .280-40-110-90-10 at the third base position (Alex Rodriguez did it twice, then single season efforts from Ken Caminiti, Dick Allen, Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones and EE). Honestly there have only been five such seasons by full time third sackers as EE appeared in only one game at third base in 2012 (he was eligible at the position in fantasy after appearing in 36 games at the hot corner in 2012). So while putting him in that group is sort of cheating, it doesn’t take away from a spectacular season for the fantasy game in 2012. Let’s look at his skill set and see where we should set expectations for a guy who, in his 8th season, exploded onto the scene.
EE is never going to be a batting average booster. His .280 batting average in 2012 was the second best mark of his career, he hit .289 in 2007, and only once from 2008-11 did he hit even .270. Why? Pretty simple really. He’s just not a great hitter – the 2006 season was the last time he posted a line drive rate of 20 percent, and his career BABIP is .280. Neither of those two numbers is anything close to being something to be proud of. On the plus side EE usually doesn’t give away too many at-bats, he’s only struck out 100 times once and his K-rate has been under 16.5 percent the past three years (a solid number in today’s game). Last season was the first time that he really took to the walk as his 13 percent walk rate was well above his nine percent mark entering the year. If he continues along those lines his outlook would remain strong (his 0.89 BB/K ratio from 2012 dwarfs his previous career best of 0.60).
Moving on from the average, what about the power output? Always a fly ball hitter, one of the other reasons his average has never risen to the level of excitement, EE owns a 45 percent career fly ball rate (about 10 percent above league average). In ’12 Edwin had a 49.5 percent fly ball rate, the third highest mark of his career, and that certainly played a part in his homer explosion. There are two other major factors. The most obvious being an 18.7 HR/F ratio, fifty percent better than his 12 percent career mark entering last season. So Encarnacion hit more fly balls than normal and those fly balls reached the seats more often than at any previous time in his career. Add in the fact that he appeared in 151 games, a career best and his first season over 140 games since 2008, and you have another pertinent reason for his growth – he was on the field more than ever before (his total of 644 plate appearances was 62 more than ever before). That certainly helps one to produce in the counting categories.
Let’s keep things simple here. For seven seasons EE teased. In year eight he became a superstar. What that means is that for 87.5 percent of his big league career he has been solid, and 12.5 percent of the time he has been elite. Teammate Jose Bautista followed a similar path and backed up his breakout season with another impressive campaign (he was on his way to a second strong follow up before injuries limited him to just 92 games in 2012). Will Edwin be able to follow that same path? Remember the following before you go all in with EE in ’13.
He had never hit 27 homers before going for 42 last year.
He had never driven in 80 runs before going for 110 last year.
He had never scored 80 runs before going for 93 last year.
He had never stolen more than eight bases before going for 13 last year. He stole a grand total of 12 bases in the previous four seasons (2008-11).
Heading into the 2013 fantasy campaign Edwin Encarnacion’s value is limited off the hop – the only position he will qualify for is first base. That really hurts his value. Add in the fact that he took such a substantial step forward in year eight that it must at least be considered that 2012 will go down as a career best effort. The pendulum hasn’t swung completely, I’m not going to suggest avoiding Edwin after pleading for people to draft him for five years, but I will exercise a word of caution with Edwin. I find it hard to believe he will be able to replicate his 2012 numbers. If you draft him hoping for 80 percent of last year’s production I’d be OK with that, but you will almost certainly have to draft him earlier than that projection would lead you to considering the hype he will likely draw at the draft table.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Blue Jays, Chipper Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista
By Jason on Jan 7, 2013
My keeper deadline isn’t for a few months, but just so damn excited baseball is around the corner i thought i’d propose a question.
Standard 5×5 and I can keep up to 5 guys (no min requirement). Pujols and Braun are locks, but i’m torn on who else to keep if anyone.. or throw everyone back and begin drafting in the 3rd round.
I have to choose from: Mauer, Lawrie, M. Holliday, Tulowitzki (multiple years of 1st round burn beginning to sting), Bumgarner, G. Gonzalez, and R. Holliday.
I would only keep 1 pitcher if any, but unsure if these options are good enough to use my 3-5 rounds picks on or throw everyone back and gamble drafting. I don’t know who else is kept so truly a gamble. Any insight is appreciated as always.
PS. Looking forward to this year’s draft guide. Any ETA for that?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 7, 2013
Jason – Feb 1st for the Draft Guide. I’ll be in Vegas for FSTA Conf week before, so I don’t want to be out of the office when it goes up.
Braun, Pujols, Tulo, Holliday, MadBum. That’s how I would go.
Tulo is a huge risk, but his upside, in this setup, well worth it.
Holliday is boring… that is if you don’t like .300-30-100.
MadBum over Halladay cause of youth and last season.
By Reed on Jan 7, 2013
Ray — Looking forward to the draft guide. I dropped a few bucks in the donation jar for the holidays. The least I can do for all the content.
Following up on the above. Surprised to see you pick Mad Bum and Halladay ahead of Gio any way you can elaborate on that please? Thanks as always!
By Reed on Jan 7, 2013
One more question if you don’t mind, please.
Cats -
H — R, RBI, HR, SB, OBP, TB
P — QS, SV, K/9, IP, ERA, WHIP
I’m planning to keep: Miggy, Votto, Andrus, Granderson, Gio, Panda, Wainwright, and Hosmer.
This leaves me needing C, 2B, IF, a few OF, Util, and pitchers in the draft.
It looks like the best available players when my first pick comes up are Kipnis, Bourn, Phillips, Zobrist, and Mauer. I finished second last year so picking 9th and 12th. I’m thinking grab Mauer then the best 2B. disagree?
I know you’re a huge Bourn fan, but I have Andrus with speed already and expect to be able to get guys like BJ Upton, Gomez, Aoki, etc. later on to fill in the OF.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 7, 2013
Reed – Thanks for being there and supporting me my friend. Really appreciate that.
I chose Holliday not Halladay over Gio.
Gio walks a bit too many for my tastes and his ’12 has more of the feel of a career best effort than a new level to me. Both guys are top-20 arms for me, so there is no wrong answer.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 7, 2013
Reed – If you only start one C, and it sounds like you do, you dont have to get Mauer. I would say #1 is Bourn, but there is the fact your lg uses TB which damages him. Year after year he is underestimated, and year after year he is consistently a top-35 player. He is one of a handful of guys in that group the last four years. I would also pay close attention to BJ Upton. I know he wont; help in OBP, Mauer is a huge bonus there, but I’m more about the all-around game of Upton.Honestly, in this setup, I’d go Zobrist over Mauer too – esp with his multi position elig. I’d go Upton and Zobrist.
By Reed on Jan 7, 2013
Thanks, Ray. I was referring to your comment that you’d keep MadBum over Halladay because of age. Based on that I concluded you would keep Halladay over Gio. NBD.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 7, 2013
Reed – I would keep MadBum over Halladay too. Sorry for the confusion. There is more than a decade of difference in age, and the trends clearly support Bumgarner being the better add for 2013.
By Patrick on Jan 7, 2013
Double E saved my ass last year when Longoria went down, and having Konerko to fill in for Votto, kept me in the race for almost the whole season, but Stanton and Ethier took dings too and that was it, I never saw last year coming, I grabbed him off the Waiver Wire in my 10 team league and he was the team MVP on Whole Votto Lovin’
By Polo on Jan 7, 2013
Is Trout #2 player overall? Some ppl are expecting 140 runs from him. I think that’s way too high. Am I crazy for thinking that? By the way, great blog. I love listening to u on XM radio
By Ray Flowers on Jan 7, 2013
Polo – I will have a 4,000 word essay in my Draft Guide (FEB. 1st) telling not only why Trout isn’t the #1 or #2 guy, but why I think he’s barely a first round guy.
Oh, and the 140 run talk is pretty crazy. Only three players in the 21st century have gotten there – Bagwell, Sosa, A-Rod.
Peoples love for Trout knows no bounds… but it would be wise to pump the breaks a bit.
By Polo on Jan 8, 2013
Im glad someone else sees the light like me. I think since 1950 only 10 or 11 players have scored 140 plus. As great as Rickey was,he only did it once! I hoping ppl take him early in my leagues lol
Cant wait 4 the draft guide
By Sparky on Jan 8, 2013
Thanks for the profile Ray. Keeper question. In $260 auction league thinking of keeping Braun $41, Cargo $35, Wright $25, and E5 $10. Could keep Waino at $15 too. Except E5, the prices are high but I think just a tic below what they will go for this year. Keep all five or dump the pricey guys and hope to get better value elsewhere in draft even if it means that I probably won’t be able to get these top level players back? It really is committing to a stars and scrubs approach. Thx
By Ray Flowers on Jan 8, 2013
Spraky – Given that it’s a keeper lg, none of those prices are out of bounds at all. In fact, you could make a strong case that you could bid that much on all the players in a redraft lg, so with inflation – totally fair.
I like Waino, but it’s up to you if you want to build your rotation around him. There will be other pitchers that you will be able to get for the same price, maybe less, who will perform at the same level. Nothing wrong with keeping him. All depends on how your lg spends at the draft table and who will be available for you to bid on.
By Morgan on Jan 8, 2013
Speaking of the draft guide…when do you think it will be ready for sale?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 8, 2013
Morgan – The Draft Guide will be available FEB 1st.
Follow me on Twitter — @baseballguys — been talking about it there for a while now.
By john on Jan 8, 2013
Are you doing a NHL guide this year??
By Ray Flowers on Jan 8, 2013
John – I am not doing an NHL Guide this year. It took so long for them to agree, that I no longer have time to do it since I’m knee deep in baseball analysis now.
You can find a top-200 list I did here: http://www.rotowire.com/hockey/showArticle.htm?id=16445
By Reed on Jan 9, 2013
Ray — Thanks again for your help here. It’s good to be able to bounce ideas off someone, so very much appreciated. Given the assessment that Upton and Zobrist (both of whom I like a lot) are the guys to grab here, should I reconsider keeping Andrus over Kipnis?
Looking at ADP, Kipnis is going around 56 and Andrus 96. If our draft follows that pattern, Andrus would still be around for my 3rd pick, and if he’s gone Rollins and Jeter would almost certainly be there in rd 4 a couple picks later.
Is Kipnis’s hype-train just out of control and thus his ADP is pumped up unreasonably? is Andrus undervalued?
I guess, would you rather have –
Andrus (kept)
Zobrist
Upton
Ike Davis/Victorino
or
Kipnis (kept)
Upton
Mauer
Andrus/Rollins/Jeter
The kicker is I’m keeping Andrus/Kipnis in Round 7, whereas the one I throw back will get drafted in a higher “tier” and become a round 2 keeper. So, while I could re-draft Andrus, I wouldn’t be able to keep him again (since I have Miggy and Votto in that top tier).
Looking forward to the guide, and thanks again!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 9, 2013
Reed – ADP is a tool – it is NOT gospel. Unfortunately, I’ve literally seen people draft off of ADP lists which is stupid. I agree with you on your assessment of Kipnis as well.
In this league, looking back at your rules (TB, OBP etc), Kipnis is the better keeper. OBP is the same for the same for the duo, basically, but the TB situation is different – Andrus 238, Kipnis 293.
Neither player is worth a 2nd rd keeper moving forward.
I’d rather have the second set of four powers with Kipnis.
By Reed on Feb 9, 2013
Ray –
Is 293 a projection for Kipnis for 2013? Seems high, and I know you don’t usually do projections.
I show him with 224 (Andrus had 238). The only guys I see with 293 were Jeter and Granderson.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 9, 2013
Reed – What are you talking about specifically with these numbers 293 etc. for Kipnis? Don’t know where you’re getting this?
By Reed on Feb 9, 2013
Ray, in your comment (Jan 9) directly above mine you recommended Kipnis over Andrus based on the fact that Kipnis had 293 TB vs Andrus at 238. Wondering where 293 came from.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 9, 2013
Reed – My bad. I look at Kipnis and read the wrong line – his career total base mark (293) vs. his 224 from last season.
By Reed on Feb 9, 2013
Gotcha. Does that change the analysis on Kipnis v Andrus? Thanks as always.