Player Profile: Hunter Pence
January 8th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
The San Francisco Giants, for the second time in three years, won the World Championship. Marco Scutaro was amazing throughout, and Barry Zito saved their bacon of excellence on the hill, but the spiritual leader of the Giants was no doubt Hunter Pence. After collecting more than 100 RBIs, in what has roundly called a “down” season, what should we expect from Mr. Pence?
It might surprise some people to note that Pence had 104 RBIs in 2012 (that includes a finishing kick of 45 in 59 games with the Giants despite hitting .219 in the city by the Bay). Not only was that total a career best it was more RBI than Buster Posey (103), the NL MVP. It was also two more RBIs than Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, five more than Jay Bruce, eight more than Andrew McCutchen and 10 more than Robinson Cano. Still, Pence’s season was disappointing. Let me count the ways.
Pence hit .253, a career worst.
Pence stole five bases, a career worst.
Pence had a .425 SLG, a career worst.
Pence had a .319 OBP, .020 points below his career average.
Pence had a career worst 21.1 K-rate (145 Ks).
Pence had 26 doubles, tying a career worst.
Why did all of this happen and should we still look at Pence with fondness in the fantasy game?
Why did a guy who had hit at least .282 the previous three seasons, one who owns a career .285 mark, hit .253? Well I already noted the career worst strikeout total, and that certainly played its part. At the same time he walked a bit more than normal and the resulting 0.39 BB/K ratio, while not a good mark, but a dead on match for his career rate. What about his ability to lash the line drive? Same as always there too. In fact, his 17.0 percent line drive rate was the third best mark of his six year career an above his 16.1 percent career mark. Well then what about his BABIP? Though his mark was still a league average .290, that was a career low and well off his normal .321 mark.
The guy might be the most consistent hitter in baseball when it comes to GB/FB ratios. In six years the mark has been between 1.50 and 1.67, and the last four years it has been between 1.60 and 1.67 (it was 1.60 in 2012). Statistically speaking, you just can’t do that, yet he has year after year. Given the totality of his approach, one would have to expect his batting average to rebound next season.
I’ve written this many times about Pence in the past, and what I wrote then still holds now. The guy will never hit 30 homers. Simply put, he hits too many balls on the ground. I just noted his GB/FB ratio which speaks to this. Pence has a ground ball rate between 51.1 and 53.1 percent the past five years. You can’t hit more than half your balls into the ground and be a big home run hitter even if you are as consistent as all get out in the HR/F category as Pence also is (between 14.7 and 16.0 in each of his six seasons). I mean seriously folks, the amount of consistency that Pence puts up year after year in the GB/FB and HR/F categories is simply astounding. It’s no shock that he went deep 24 times in ’12. Do you know how many homers he averaged from 2008-11? Come on now, you know you want to guess. If you guessed 24 you win a big sloppy kiss – not from me but from someone you are attracted to.
So let me boil it down for you.
Pence posted the same GB/FB ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same HR/F ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same BB/K ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence hit the exact same about of homers as he always does in 2012.
We can blame his batting average dip as a bit of bad luck in BABIP, an a return to the mean if you will. Pence hit a career best .314 in 2011, a number that isn’t indicative of the player he is. What does Pence hit if you add together his 2011 and 2012 batting average? He ends up hitting .283 the past two years. What is his career average again? Oh that’s right, it’s .285.
I’m telling you folks, the guy’s consistency is unbeatable. There hasn’t been a player in baseball that can match that consistency since Pence graced major league ball fields.
The only area of concern with Pence is his steal total. The first four seasons of his career he never stole less than 11 bases and never more than 18. For those four years he averaged 13.5 steals. The last two seasons he’s only stolen 13 bases. Not an extremely fast runner until he gets his wheels rolling, Pence may never steal 18 bags again, but he still has to be looked at as a 50/50 bet to get back to double-digits in 2013.
Don’t be one of the group of people that will look down on Pence in 2013. Draft him as you normally would despite the dip in his batting average and steal total last season. Chances are pretty good that Pence will be the same player in 2013 that he has always been – a darn good one.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Giants, Hunter Pence, Jay Bruce, Philllies
By Howard Bender on Jan 8, 2013
So you have no concerns about the dimensions at AT&T vs Minute Maid or Citizens Bank Park? The additional foul territory? The way outfielders play the park due to it’s spacious outfield? You think the average rebounds and he hits for the same power? Respectfully, I have to disagree with you, Ray. I get that he’s been consistent over his career, but I think a full year in the Bay is going to hurt him overall. And with respect to his 45 RBI in 59 games while hitting .219, I feel like that has a lot more to do with Posey and Panda hitting directly in front of him than anything else.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 8, 2013
Howard Bender – There is no way Pence hits that poorly in 2013, no matter what park he plays in. Of course, you are correct that he clearly is in a park now that will make it very difficult for him to be a power hitter of note. I still think 20 homers are legit. With his game, I could see his doubles total increase. He’s not a home run hitter anyway. We all know that. It’s fair to see a slight regression in the RBI column, but I think it’s somewhat offset by his average coming back up. Ballparks matter – no doubt. What do you think… .280-20-90-80-10 – doable?
By Howard Bender on Jan 8, 2013
If that’s your over/under on Pence, then I’ll take the under. I think .280 and 20 HR in that park might be a little tough for him. The 90 RBI I could definitely see so long as he’s batting behind Posey and Panda again, which he will be. 80 runs might be doable if Belt hits behind him and has a solid (not spectacular, but solid) season but no way he reaches double-digit steals again in my humble opinion.
By Steve on Jan 8, 2013
Hey Ray. Great article. Even if he does hit say .285 with barely reaching 20 bombs. Whats so special about an OF who hits 20 homers without stealing. Its not like hes going to steal you 20 bags. 10 if youre lucky. And I agree with Howard. I know hes been consistent all these years but the ball park could definitely bring his average down from his career norms and HR between 15-20. Seriously how early do you take Pence in a 12 team mixed? Im not too crazy about him any earlier than the 8th round and would not want him to be any higher than a 3rd OF or flex at best. And it seems if you want him its got to be earlier. Ill pass. How about you?
By Dave on Jan 8, 2013
I’d say Ray is right on the money. Belt or anybody hitting behind Pence is meaningless. SF’s team OBP was #12 in MLB last year (#8 for spots 2-4), so Pence should deliver similar RBI totals. He’s always been a terrible base-stealer, so below or right around 10 seems right. Since track record is the most reliable way to predict future performance, and Pence’s consistency is off-the-charts, adjusting to about 20 HR seems just about right, + or – 2.
Also: Bill James and his guys have Pence projected at: 277-23-88-80-7. Hard to argue with James’s track record. Ray seems on the money.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 8, 2013
Steve/Dave/Howard – Good points all around. Pence is certainly not an upside play. He’s not gonna go .300-30-100 in that ballyard. But I still stand by my stability comments. That’s what matters to me. There are 35 outfielders that could have better seasons than him, but how many of those 35 are a lock, baring injury, to better him? I’d say less than half. I like the consistency that Pence brings even if his upside isn’t what some of the others are.
So often in the fantasy game we focus on UPSIDE to the exclusion of DOWNSIDE. I just don’t see much downside with Pence.
By Polo on Jan 8, 2013
Pence didn’t well in Philly b4 he was traded(.241). Maybe he just like hitting on the road better last year. the solid #s are there every year. 2013 shouldn’t be any different for a player in his prime
By Polka on Jan 9, 2013
All points are valid here, but Ray’s last point is the nail in the coffin…he’s consistant and he plays…and after my plethora of DL stints last season, a guy who constantly plays and puts up decent numbers would be a welcome 3rd or 4th OF to me. Last Year I fell from 1st to 4th after the following DL trips-
Votto-
Longoria-
Stanton-
Ethier- and the late season dinged up Konerko and Hart
By Polo on Jan 9, 2013
In my auction money league(16 teams) I had McCann,Quentin,Joey Bats,Tulo,Markakis,C.Young,D,Gordon and Doc Halladay. Know all about injuries
By Tim on Jan 16, 2013
Could it also be the change of scenery in the NL West?
While his lifetime may be in the .280 range, look at his lifetime averages versus the three NL West opponents is not good:
.228 Lifetime vs Dodgers
.234 vs Padres
.256 vs Rockies
Only versus the D Backs does he get up to the .282 mark near his career average.
Im willing to roll the dice because I think he will be undervalued this year for a guy who is still a top 25-30 OF heading into 2013, but Im a little concerned with his stats versus the NL West as well as the eyeball test, he was really off balance and out of sorts during his time with the Giants.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 16, 2013
Tim – Pence is always off balance and out of sorts. He’s a bit of a spaz out there. Always has been. As I noted in the article though, a majority of what he did last year was standard fair for him. Even with the struggles, I’m shocked at so many doubting a guy who still had 100+ RBIs. AVG is a poor way to look at a player, but even so, the Dodgers always have good pitching, Padres similar, and both spots heavily favor pitchers. Also, we’re talking, what, 162 ABs again the Dodgers, 158 against the Padres etc. Those aren’t very large sample sizes if we’re being fair.
By Tim on Jan 16, 2013
Im a Giants fan and I hope youre 100% correct, I know his game was always kind of quirky it just seemed watching every game the last couple months that he was basically hacking a middle-in approach and the pitchers were living outer third of the plate and even a lot of his hits were of the roll over swinging bunt variety.
What do you think about his runs? Probably be among the lowest for a top 25 OF because of the weakness of Giants bottom 1/3rd of line up?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 16, 2013
Tim – You gotta wait for my rankings until the Draft Guide comes out on Feb 1st, but I think your general thought with Pence is on track.