Player Profile: Luis Mendoza

January 9th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |

'Luis Mendoza' photo (c) 2012, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

I’ve outdone myself this time. Luis Mendoza, he pitches for the Royals if you were unaware, went 8-10 with a 1.42 WHIP last season. That type of pitching line points to a hurler being barely usable in a league specific setup. So have I run out of things to write about at BaseballGuys? Am I part owner of the Royals? Is Mendoza married to my second cousin? The answer to all of those three question is no, so why write about Mendoza? There must be some reason…

For the totality of the 2012 season, here are some Mendoza numbers:

5.64 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 1.76 K/BB

As you know, none of those three numbers is even league average. In most cases that would portend doom in my eyes. Does it in the case of this Veracruz, Mexico righty? Don’t give up the faith just yet.

If a guy has a set of numbers like that, in most cases one of two things occur. (A) He’s likely to end up riding buses in the minor leagues very soon or (B) he’s got to have another skill that has led a major league team to use him in a significant role. In the case of Mendoza, it just might be the second situation.

As is often the case with a hurler who doesn’t strike anyone out and walks batters at the league average rate, Mendoza has a pretty impressive sinker at his disposal. After throwing his sinking fastball 80+ percent of the time from 2009-11, Mendoza actually cut back a bit in 2012 throwing the pitch 68 percent of the time as he leaned more heavily on his curve ball throwing it 23 percent of the time (that mark had never been above 11.4 percent during his big league career). By the way he’s really only a two pitch hurler as he threw a change up less than 10 percent of the time in 2012. As for the sinking action on his pitches, they worked to great effect in 2012. Mendoza’s ground ball rate last season was 52 percent, just slightly above his 51 percent career mark. Looks like the switch in the deployment of his pitches didn’t hinder him in the least. Given his only slightly elevated 21 percent line drive rate he was able to produce a 1.92 GB/FB ratio, the 7th best mark in the AL.

As we’ve seen forever, think Derek Lowe, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Masterson etc., pitcher’s can have a ton of success in the real world with a less than ideal skill set in the fantasy game. Taking a look at those three names that I listed, you will probably remember seasons where those guys led you to fantasy championships while in other seasons they doomed you to searching the waiver-wire to try and make up for what was a horrible fantasy effort. That’s often the case with guys that can’t get free outs (strikeouts) and that struggle with their control at times. When that sinker isn’t sinking/diving/darting they just don’t have the stuff or location to consistently get batters out. That up/down nature of sinker ballers is why I rarely get behind guys whose main asset is the ability to induce ground balls unless they can compliment that skill with the ability to miss bats (a ground ball arm who can strike batters out is the panacea of pitching – think Felix Hernandez, David Price and James Shields). Mendoza doesn’t have the ability to miss bats but he was decent during the second half of the season posting a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the second half of 2012 (remember when when I wrote about Phil Hughes in his Player Profile? In that article I noted that Hughes’ 2012 numbers included a 4.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP). If Mendoza can cut the walks just a bit, and keep the ball down in the strike zone consistently as he has in the past…

Mendoza is a reserve round speculative pick in mixed leagues at best. The fact is that in most leagues with 12 teams I doubt he will be drafted. I’m not saying you should buck that trend and do so, but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Mendoza could run off a series of effective seasons on the bump. He’s never going to produce strikeouts, and his ratios may never be anything better than league, but given that you will be able to add him for nothing in 2013 it might be worth remembering his name early in the season if an injury strikes your club or if you play in a league that uses a head-to-head setup where a 2-start Mendoza might be worth considering rolling out there.

 

By Ray Flowers

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8 Responses to “Player Profile: Luis Mendoza”

  1. By scott on Jan 9, 2013

    Luis Mendoza? Good information for those in a 12 team KC Royals league only. How about a review that someonce cares about!!

    Having said that: keep up the good work and looking forward to the darft guide.

  2. By Ray Flowers on Jan 9, 2013

    Scott – Anyone can tell you to draft Cabrera, Braun or Kershaw… so writing is really a wasted effort. Breaking down players that can be late round, or waiver wire adds, that is where most leagues are won and lost… that is if you aren’t in some dumb 8 or 10 tm mixed lg.

  3. By Jimbo on Jan 9, 2013

    Ray,

    I attempted to follow your “take pitchers late” strategy last year. I had thought i did but after looking back at the draft results (14 team league) i grabbed Haren(5th), CJ Wilson(6th), Pineda(9th), Morrow(10th) then Norris(16th), Dempster(17), Minor(18th).

    I really want to focus on hitting this upcoming season. What tier would your first pitcher be from in a 12 man h2h category league? Also, could you give some late pitchers to target.

    Will also be getting your draft guide!!

  4. By Scott on Jan 9, 2013

    Understood and agreed.

    Less than 60 more of your blogs until opening day. Time is too precious for you to even think about the likes of Luis Mendoza. When do you start your 2 a days!!

  5. By Ray Flowers on Jan 9, 2013

    Jimbo – “Waiting” on pitchers does not mean taking four in the first 10 rounds. That’s being aggressive with hurlers, not waiting. Waiting would say 1 or 2 SPs in top-10 selections.

    Also, Wilson in the 6th after arm surgery is way early for me, and Pineda in the 9th is a totally wasted pick. He’ll be lucky to be back at full strength by the All-Star Break.

    I have no idea how your lg will draft. Therefore, can’t really tell ya. If 20 pitchers are taken in the first five rounds I’m not going to start to panic and start taking inferior pitchers too early. Just think of it. Stars last year on hill that weren’t early picks – Dickey, Lynn, Lohse, Sale, Miley, Peavy, Niese, Burnett, Bailey, Scherzer etc. You just have to look for the right type of hurlers.

    My Draft Guide will have plenty of targets to go after on the hill.

  6. By Polka on Jan 9, 2013

    Just think Ray, if Mendoza does stick, you could be the reason a whole new Mendoza line gets coined!!
    Hopefully under better circumstances than crappy hitting!
    He’s officially on the late game radar and possible waiver snags!
    Jimbo,
    last year I did a league where my first pitcher was CJ Wilson in the 8th round and I really cannot remember the rest, but it potted me 2nd place in a 12-team head to head league..

    I know I ended up trading him before he hit the skids for King Felix, and in turn traded him for David Wright and someone else….
    plenty of good pitching to wait on, and load up where you need stats brother….

  7. By Polo on Jan 9, 2013

    I agree,there’s no need or rush to get pitching in the first few early rds. Go get those hitters that will be the foundation of ya team first. There will be plenty of pitching to get

  8. By Polo on Jan 9, 2013

    I like blogs like this. Especially if u play in large leagues. U need all the info u can get

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