2013 FSTA LEAGUE
January 24th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).
13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots
Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.
C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)
SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)
BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)
So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.
I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.
In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.
Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.
In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.
Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.
Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.
My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.
I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.
In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam LaRoche, Andrew McCutchen, Asdrubal Cabrera, B.J. Upton, Chris Young, Coco Crisp, Denard Span, Edinson Volquez, Erasmo Ramirez, FSTA, Hanley Ramirez, Howie Kendrick, J.J. Putz, James Shields, Jason Grilli, Jay Bruce, Jemile Weeks, Joe Mauer, Joel Hanrahan, Justin Maxwell, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Martin Prado, Max Scherzer, Russell Martin, Sean Marshall, Shaun Marcum, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Wandy Rodriguez
By Polo on Jan 24, 2013
Looks like u like BJ Upton a lot. I’m in a league where we don’t count avg(R,2B,3B,HR,RBI,SB,BB). It’s a head to head league(12 teams). Would you look to take BJ in the 3rd in a league like this?
By Tim on Jan 24, 2013
I like your team a lot:
Hanley – Im buying big on both Hanley and Tulo this year, more so on Hanley. I think a lot of teams are gonna look back on these guys in 2nd rounds as the reason they are winning titles.
McCutch – big believer in 5-category contributor in 1st round, so I like it a lot.
Mauer – I think he is generally among the most underated players, people overlook Catcher across the board contributions, 80-80 runs and rbi and will probably be 1st or 2nd in C steals.
One of the intriguing names on there is Maxwell, he did a lot of HR-SB damage per at bat, hits in a good park and will have a lot of meaningless abs in Houston, just a matter of cutting down the K rate.
Pitching is what I like, lots of upside and value.
One risk or potential downfall could be batting average but that is always a tough category to predict so its not one I usually dwell on in a draft.
By Polka on Jan 24, 2013
I listened to the majority of this draft and like your team a lot Ray…I was with you last year in the Longoria crutch, and Votto and Stanton..I replced Longoria with E5, and Votto with Konerko, but when all three big guns fell I did to in the standings…
your pitchers have high strikeout celings too here, and you have alot of possible 20/20 players…this is your season young Patowon!
By Polo on Jan 24, 2013
Is there one player you just missed out on? Any regrets?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 24, 2013
Polo – Just missed out on Pierre, got Crisp later though. Wanted AGone in the third. Just missed on Machado in 14th. Also was eyeing Chris Archer late.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 24, 2013
Polka – Wait, what… I’m following you now?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 24, 2013
Polo – As long as Ks don’t count, BJUp is a very strong play. I would say 3/4 round yes. Others might go a bit later, but I like – especially in 4th which is a better spot.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 24, 2013
Tim – I like my team too. Haha
As I noted in the article, Maxwell is intriguing. Huge holes, but tons of HR/SB upside on the cheap, and he should play everyday, especially with the DH now in play for the Astros.
Agreed on Average… we’ll see.
By Tim on Jan 24, 2013
One guy I was kind of curious your thinking was the Erasmo Ramirez pick, I understand the logic he had decent numbers last year for Seattle, but looking over his long-term numbers in the minors and such he isnt much of a K upside type of guy. I figured that late might as well roll the dice with a little more upside than kind of best case scenario being a steady eddy type.
I like the Youkilis pick a lot too. Every year there are a handful of veteran players who come off a down year, get kicked to the curb from a fantasy value standpoint and have a major bounceback. He would be one I think could be in that mix along with Lance Berkman (if he truly is hitting 3rd in Rangers line up)
By Nathan on Jan 24, 2013
Ray- A couple picks stood out to me as a little shaky. Howard early in 5 and Markakis early in 6.
Am I wrong in thinking these picks were a stretch? Isn’t that a reach on Howard given the direction of his career and when you can wait on guys like Freeman, Konerko, Laroche, Morse still on the table?
I guess I just don’t trust Markakis to take him that high. Seems like you could get a .290/15hr/10sb OF at just about any point in the draft.
Loved your outcome of Shields and Scherzer by waiting on pitching.
Looking forward to the release of your rankings.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 24, 2013
Tim – I rolled the dice with Volquez. Let’s face it, the chances of Erasmo making 20 starts for me this year are small. I do think though that he has the potential to be a Buerhle-eque clone which certainly gives him some value.
Pro-rate Youkilis last year and you still get solid numbers: http://baseballguys.com/2012/12/12/player-profile-kevin-youkilis/
By Ray Flowers on Jan 24, 2013
Nathan – Yes, I thought both were early. I’m not a huge fan of Howard. I was more than happy to take LaRoche all those rounds later like I noted in the piece. I REALLY like Markakis. I was hoping to get Nick later in the draft. People overlook his consistency as if that doesn’t matter. He doesn’t do anything great, but he does pretty much everything well… and he does so year after year when healthy.
By Mike on Jan 25, 2013
Hi Ray
5×5 Roto, 260.cap 10 team 33 (9 bench spots)man rosters 2 catchers
5 keepers only one year
Butler 8 ( first base eligible)
Wright 17
philips 20
Bruce 23
choo 19
Matt Holliday 28
Moustakis 1
Fowler 2
Lucroy 1
Aoki 1
Matt Cain 16
Wainwright 9
Latos 10
Chris Carpenter 2
Joe Nathan 3
Whilhelmsin 1
Perkins 1
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2013
Mike – No please or thank you?
By Reed on Jan 25, 2013
Hello, Ray — eagerly awaiting the 2/1 release date! I know you said you wanted to be around to answer questions, but I suspect you also wanted to have at least one expert draft without all your secrets out there for the competition
Regarding the FSTA draft, you generally seem to be higher on Michael Bourn than just about anyone in the industry. I’ve even heard/read you tell someone that taking Bourn in rd 1 isn’t crazy. that being the case, I’m interested to hear the thinking behind passing on him through 6 rounds.
I’m not at all criticizing your picks — I’m all over Hanley, Mauer, BJ, Bruce, and McCutch. I’m just wondering how the thought process worked out that a guy you believe to be a top 30 guy wasn’t worth the 60th pick. Was it simply the fact that you already had good SB production from BJ and McCutch? needed to begin to fill out the IF and already had 3 OFs?
By Mike on Jan 25, 2013
Hi Ray, My Bad !
And I’m in sales !!!, I leave every sales call with a Thank You !!!
I was in a hurry leaving my office, my apoligies
Thank you
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2013
Mike – Here you go amigo. Im gonna suggest going really cheap given your options.
1Wright 17
2 Lucroy 1
3 Joe Nathan 3
4 Matt Cain 16
5 Fowler 2
Wright will go for at least $10 more, Lucroy $10 more, Nathan probably $15 more, Cain $10 more, Folwer $10. You save so much cash with these five that you can then go out and get the players you want = you can target guys and pay a few bucks more if you want cause you will have extra cash relative to the players you are holding on to.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2013
Reed – Totally taking my Bourn comment out of context. It was an NL-only keeper league situation where I was talking about Bourn being a first round pick. He is NOT a first round pick in redraft lgs, not even close.
Here is my belief. Bourn is a top-40 player – he has been 4-straight years. People don’t understand that because so much of his value is in his wheels. He is also, and people miss this, CONSISTENT. To me, that’s worth more than it seems to be to others.
The reason I didn’t draft him is that he didn’t fit my roster at the time. I had McC, Upton and Bruce in the top-4 picks. It wouldn’t have made sense for me to go with another outfielder that early (Prado says OF but he will be playing 3B for me).
Also, McC, Upton, HanRam = that’s at least 60 steals with 90 upside. I added Crisp and Span later to round out the steal group. I will be competitive there.
Sometimes, and this is why I do NOT use a top-250 list, taking the highest ranked guy isn’t always the best fit for a team.
By Reed on Jan 25, 2013
One more thing, sir.
I’m in a slow draft with some experts and some readers. So far I’ve got this going on:
16 teams
(rd/Ovr)
1/13 – Kershaw
2/20 – Reyes
3/45 – Bruce
4/52 – Mauer
5/77 – Alex Gordon
6/84 – Bourn
7/109 – LaRoche
8/116 – Moustakas
1C, 4OF, CI, MI, UT, UT
how’s it looking so far?
6.4 -
By Mike on Jan 25, 2013
Thanks so much !!! are you down on Wainwright, oh forgot to mention also we have 1650 minimum innings pitched does it change your mind ?
Thanks Again, look forward to your rankings list next week.
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2013
Mike – Why would you think I was down on Wainwright? NO reason to be at all. He should be good to go. Pitched better last season than the numbers suggest.
Feb 1st for the Draft Guide… 150 pages of glory!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2013
Reed – I wouldn’t take an SP in first round. Reyes solid. Bruce was my 4th round pick in FSTA so you might have reach a wee bit. Mauer, I took in FSTA, but normally I wouldn’t take a C that early. Bourn is a strong pick. LaRoche way too early. Moustakas even worse… way too early. I know there are 16 teams which change things a bit, but I just don’t like the value of either of those guys.
By Robbie on Jan 25, 2013
Ray – Nice team. Enjoy your insight on The Drive with Kyle and really appreciate your draft guide. Used it last year and I am anxiously anticipating its 2013 release.
I am in a 12-team mixed roto league. We can keep 5 players (3 bats and 2 pitchers) but we can only keep them for 3 seasons. I have until 3/1 to trade Josh Hamilton as last year was year 3. If I don’t trade him, he goes into the free agency draft pool. I am currently keeping Fielder, Heyward and Cueto. Undecided as to my other pitcher…probably Josh Johnson.
One team has offered me Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez for Josh Hamilton and Fielder.
Another offer is Giancarlo Stanton for Hamilton straight up.
Another offer is Hanley Ramirez for Hamilton straight up.
Another lesser offer is Jay Bruce for Hamilton straight up. Not really considering that one but I have included it.
Which deal do you think is the best? I really appreciate the insight.
Thanks Ray.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2013
Robbie – Glad you enjoy the work we do on the radio. Thought the team turned out pretty well too. We will see.
I can’t answer the question with 100 percent certainty unless I know how long you can keep the players you are getting. If you lose Hamilton and can’t keep him, why can others? The contract should be carried by the player, not the owner.
Any of the offers are good ones if you can’t keep Hamilton. If you can keep Stanton for three years, like the sound of that.
By Robbie on Jan 25, 2013
Ray – Thanks for the input. You are only allowed to keep a player for years. So, whoever I trade for, I can only keep them for the next 3 seasons. Whoever gets Hamilton from me can keep him for 3 years. I drafted Hamilton 3 years ago so now I have to trade him or lose him.
I don’t like the rule, but I am the only Southerner in a league from New Hampshire. What can you do?
Thanks again Ray!
By Reed on Jan 25, 2013
Agree on Kershaw, LaRoche and Mous. I didn’t really like a bunch of the guys left at 13, so decided to grab (in my mind) the top guy at a position.
On LaRoche and Mous, I sort of got into that same kind of position we were discussing re your Prado pick and passing on Bourn. The only guys I liked who wouldn’t fall to me in the next couple rounds were OFs, so I decided to go ahead and fill a couple IF slots since I already had Bruce Bourn and Gordon. Appreciate the feedback. This is why we do mocks, after all.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 26, 2013
Reed – I hear ya. I’ll eventually be writing about a mock draft in which I tried something I’ve never done before — I took Verlander & Kershaw with my first two picks to see how it turns out.
By Edgar on Jan 26, 2013
Ray can you help out.
I’m in a 24 team 5 keepers league. I have my top 4 spots set deviating on the last one.
CarGo
Sale
Longoria
Cueto
Deciding between olt and medlen. Who would you keep? I also have Dunn should I keep him?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 27, 2013
Edgar – In a lg this deep I’m really nervous making 3 of your five players pitchers, but Medlen is the best hold you have here. Olt may not even open the season with the Rangers, and even if he does he doesn’t have a role. IF he is traded that’s diff, but for now he’s tough to hold on to. Dunn is all power, isn’t getting any younger either.
By Jeremy on Jan 27, 2013
Ray, Do you like the balance I have going in to a 12 Tm 5×5 Roto Keeper… Trout, Fielder, Hanley, Bruce, Ellsbury? I also have Cain and Gio as options but only keep 5. Thanks for any input, can’t wait to see the Draft Guide!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 27, 2013
Jeremy – Trout, Fielder, HanRam, Bruce I feel very good about. Ellsbury is a HUGE wildcard. Could be a superstar. Could be very good. Could be a huge disappointment. All depends on your risk tolerance. Cain as your #5 guy is a rock if you wanted to hold. He is the anti Ellsbury. You know exactly what you get with him. On flip side, Ellsbury has the higher upside in fantasy, and you dont need to protect someone since only 60 guys are being kept.
By godfather on Jan 27, 2013
Ray, hold Coors against Walker? Why the hell not? DiMaggio drew The Stadium as his playpen. In Coors, he’d have approached 80. So much contact, so few whiffs. As I used hear in the pool hall after making a pay shot, the ball has to go someplace. Joe’s road numbers beat those of all the household-name sluggers. And hold out on the vows…you can do better than the dragon slayer…Take a look, too, at Piazza’s year when Walker was named MVP.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 27, 2013
Godfather – Am I correct to understand that you think Joe DiMaggio would have hit 80 homers in Coors? Obviously there must be a huge bit of hyperbole in that statement.
By Matt on Jan 30, 2013
Oracle – can you please help.
I inherited a team in a 6×6 keeper with OBP and Losses.
I am keeping
Bruce – 10
Shields – 7
Harper – 11
Rios – 4
275 total Budget. Any of these worth keeping
Evan Longoria $48
Mark Teixeira $40
CC Sabathia $40
Hanley Ramirez $31
Nelson Cruz $28
Ben Zobrist $22
Jason Kubel $4
Kyle Lohse $4
Wade Miley $4
By Ray Flowers on Jan 30, 2013
Matt – Let’s see if The Oracle can help…
Wow, there is some huge inflation there. All the $40 guys go back.
With Cruz and the potential PED stuff, I’d avoid him too.
HanRam and Zobrist are certainly options. Personally, I’d hold both. You have four great keepers at such low cost, you can afford those two.
Kubel at 4 is another hold if you start 5 OFs. There’s nothing wrong with spending that.
The SPs… I’d toss them back, but they are both at fair value of course.
By DAN on Jan 31, 2013
Ray , would you please give me your opinion on the following keepers ? Thanks !
6×6 – H2H – 12 Team keeper league
I have 43 bucks and could acguire another few bucks if needed . Here are my options .
G Stanton -11
Medlen -8
Freeman – 12
M Moore – 11
A Gordon – 11
V Martinez -11 ( He will be C eligible )
Kubel – 5
Granderson – 21
By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2013
Dan – Crazy low values on all these guys. Lg really should add in some form of inflation.
Stanton, Freeman, Moore, Medlen = $42
That seems to be the best fit given your budget constraints.
By DAN on Jan 31, 2013
Ray – Thanks and love the show on xm ! Did Kay leave the show ? I havn’t listened since last baseball season .
By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2013
Dan – Kay does Sunday night, 8-11 PM EDT.
She is no longer on The Drive. She moved to NY and works for NBC and CBS (she’s down covering the SuperBowl right now).
By Ben on Feb 10, 2013
Ray — love listening to The Drive every day on the way home from work!
I’m doing a slow 50 round draft now, mixed league and 15 teams. There are no free agent or waiver pick ups during the season. Whoever ya draft is who ya get!
Regarding waiting on pitchers, would the constraint of no pickups change your strategy? I’ve taken the best hitter available for the first 4 rounds. My plan is to continue accumulating hitters until round 8 or 9 if possible. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 10, 2013
Ben – Thanks for the support my friend.
Love those NFBC Drafts.
I’d still wait. It’s a 12 or 15 team lg, right? I might go SP in 6/7 instead of 7/8, but really, no big change in strategy. Just go lots of pitchers late in the draft.