Is Perception Reality?
February 6th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
A lot of times human beings have a hard time making a decision. Sometimes the decisions we make are well reasoned. Other times our information is faulty, we make rash/uneducated decisions because of it, or we let our hormones out of the box and they cause all kinds of issues (tell me you haven’t been out on a Saturday night at 1 AM and those hormones of yours aren’t telling you to do something that you would never do at 6 PM on a Thursday night. Don’t feel bad. We’ve all been there – some of us more than others). With that as the backdrop let me toss out some information and you can tell me what you would do with it.
PITCHER A: Four seasons of 210 innings and five of 185.
PITCHER B: No season of 180 innings.
PITCHER A: Won at least 13 games on four occasions.
PITCHER B: Never won more than 11 games.
PITCHER A: Career 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.81 K/BB, 1.41 GB/FB
PITCHER B: Career 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.28 K/BB, 0.88 GB/FB
Is there any person out there, given that data, that wouldn’t take PITCHER A? Of course there isn’t. Obviously, based on the data laid out PITCHER A is not only a more skilled hurler, he’s also the hurler with experience so there would be no reason to take PITCHER B. Of course, as you might have surmised from the extended build up, many this year are drafting PITCHER B first.
Why is this occurring? The prevailing thought is that PITCHER A, coming off the worst season of his career and a dreadful campaign, is no longer someone that can be counted on while PITCHER B is the upwardly mobile hurler who only needs health to excel in 2013. Is that perception reality?
PITCHER A is Tim Lincecum. I won’t go into great detail breaking down Lincecum in this piece since I’ve already done that in Is Tim Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance? In that article I broke down why I believe that far too much is being made out of Tim’s loss of velocity and why just because he had a terrible season in 2012 doesn’t mean his career is over.
As for PITCHER B, that’s Brandon Morrow. I get it. Morrow is a power arm who I personally touted as a breakout star last year. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as he was well on his way to making me look like a genius before injury struck and that ultimately limited him to being on the bump only 21 times. As I noted above, Morrow doesn’t have any big inning seasons under his belt, and while that shouldn’t stop you from targeting him on draft day it’s just a little knock against him that has to be noted. It should also be noted that despite all the success last year that is better than a strikeout an inning arm, he was over 10.15 K/9 in 2010 and 2011, fell to just 7.80 last season. That’s a significant loss (even “terrible” Lincecum was at 9.19). Morrow did further reduce his walk rate, for the first time it was under three batters per nine innings to help offset the loss of Ks, but is that a repeatable number for him? Will Morrow continue to have success keeping the ball in the yard even though his fly ball rate is constantly 5-7 percent above the league average? Does he have any chance of repeating his .252 BABIP from last season which was .039 points below his career norm?
I’m not going to say that drafting Lincecum over Morrow is the right or wrong move (more on that below). I’m merely going to point out that the numbers, and not just the last 12 months but all the numbers, suggest that while everyone out there but me might be favoring Morrow this season that it really shouldn’t be the open and shut case it seems to be for most. Remember, we all do things at times that we regret and usually the best way to avoid those decisions, other than laying off that 6th Midori Sour, is to get as much information as possible to help you to form an accurate picture of what it is that you’re trying to address.
To find out how I ranked Morrow and Lincecum in 2013, and let me tell you it’s about as close as it can be in my book, make sure you get a copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Draft Guide.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brandon Morrow, Tim Lincecum
By Dave on Feb 6, 2013
Ever since I got your draft guide I’ve been targeting Lincecum in my mock drafts and I’ve really enjoyed how my pitching staff turns out due to this. In my opinion, Lincecum is an ideal 3rd SP in 12 team mixed leagues this year, for the simple fact it provides enough buffer in case he doesn’t completely rebound. That said, depending on how the draft goes, or in deeper mixed leagues I wouldn’t have an issue taking him as my SP2, knowing that in the rounds following I’ll be loading up on the Alex Cobbs, Erasmo Ramirez and quality non-closer relievers you also mention in your guide.
As always, keep doing your thing Ray. The way you approach player analysis and overall draft prep (it’s an art, not something a computer formula spits out) is extremely refreshing and I look forward to listening to your show daily.
By Dave on Feb 6, 2013
Speaking of the show, is Kyle on twitter?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 6, 2013
Dave – Thanks so much for your kind words. I do try to break things down in a slightly different way. I also try to help people see why I do what I do. Glad it’s being received well on your end.
Also … Kyle is on Twitter, but he never tweets.
https://twitter.com/KyleElfrink
By Mickey on Feb 6, 2013
Ray! You sir are my fantasy idol and I am begging for your help! Joined a 10 team 5×5 roto league last year and dominated in no small part due to listening to the drive everyday on my way home. Unfortunately however you’ve converted me to a full blown believer in expert settings but the commissioner is catching some flak from some old heads in the league ( he agrees with me being a fellow listener). I’ve heard you rant on air several times about why your league stinks and is too shallow if nick swisher isn’t a starting outfielder and I remember a pretty damn good article last year on baseball guys.com outlining what should be the standard format but i’ve scoured and I can’t find it anymore. Any chance you still have it saved somewhere in the annuls of the site? If we don’t expand to 12 and start 5 of I feel my draft guide may go to waste lol
By Ray Flowers on Feb 6, 2013
Mickey – I always answer the fan mail Mickey. lol
Well, if you buy the draft guide it’s all in there. If not, something like this lists it.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/11/11/mocking-it-up/
You can cut down the teams, but mixed leagues should be 12 of 15 teams.
NL or AL only 12 teams each.
All should you the same roster format.
Hope that helps.
By Craig D on Feb 6, 2013
Ray,
Heeeeeeee’s back! It is almost that time Inspector BABIP! Pitchers and catchers report this weekend – YES! Wow, I can hardly contain my excitement.
Have you done any Jose Altuve capsules recently? I’ve heard crazy things from “industry experts” like he’s already a better hitter than Pedroia. Less Pop but more sizzle on the paths. What say you?
Ray – you are my Sabermetric Superhero! Keep up the great work sir,
Craig D
By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2013
Craig D – I like that lead in you used…
Altuve will NEVER be a better hitter than Pedroia. NEVER.
Altuve will steal more bases and that might lead to him, might, being a better fantasy performer. I HIGHLY doubt that will occur in 2013.
By Craig D on Feb 7, 2013
Never is strong! I’m not going to mention any names but Ian Riley disagress…
By Luke on Feb 7, 2013
Hey Oracle, Im kicking off a 12 team H2H dynasty league this year. I need to get the scoring cats set for good, since this format makes it difficult to make changes down the road. I’ve always done the typical 5×5 (HR,RBI,SB,AVG,R and W,Ks,ERA,WHIP,SV) but would like to bump to 6×6. In your opinion what would be the 2 cats to add? We have fairly deep rosters (35 and keep 25) so I would like to incorporate holds. The league is against combining with saves, so we would be going 6×6 to do so. Also if it matters we start 5 OF, MI, CI in addition to the other bats and 3 SP, 3 RP, and 4 P (flex). I want this league to rock so please guide me señor
By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2013
Luke – Adding holds is fine for pitchers. That gives two main cats for RPs (Sv, hold) and four man cats for SPs (era, whip, k, wins). Helps to balance it out.
Easiest on offense would be to add OPS. Everyone is pretty familiar with that one too so shouldn’t cause any issues.
My suggestion:
14 hitters: (C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI,UT,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters, relievers)
By Kyle from CT on Feb 8, 2013
Hi Ray,
You led me to 2 fantasy championships last year….thank you!!
I received your 2013 Fantasy guide and can’t wait to start reading it…
Quick keeper league question (standard categorical scoring league)– who do you think has better keeper value: BJ Upton (6th round) or Yadier Molina (16th round)? My other keepers are not strong in the SB department (Tulo and Pedroia), but Molina is a rare .300-hitting catcher, although I don’t see having as strong a repeat year…
As always, thanks for your insight!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2013
Kyle from CT – Congrats on the success from last season.
How many teams in your league? Do you start two catchers?
If the answer is at least 10 and yes on two starting catchers, and each each team only keeps two players, I’d be really tempted to keep Molina. That’s great value right there. Ultimately though I’d go with Upton, a more dynamic player that could be Great where as Molina is just really, really good.
By Kyle from CT on Feb 8, 2013
Sorry for leaving out the rest of the league info. It’s 12-team keeper, keep up to 7 players. Start 1 catcher, 3 outfielders. My other keepers are Votto (1st rd), Tulo (2nd rd), Pedroia (3rd rd), Sabathia (5th rd), Bumgarner (7th rd), and Billy Butler (9th rd)
Upton probably has more upside, just hate to pass up a really good catcher.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2013
Kyle from CT – With only one catcher starting – all leagues should start two – go with Upton as your keeper.