Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early
February 12th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.
I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.
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C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)
STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)
RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)
I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.
I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.
So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?
My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.
A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.
The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.
So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.
Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..
For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.
Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam LaRoche, Adrian Gonzalez, Alcides Escobar, Bobby Parnell, Brett Gardner, Carl Crawford, Clayton Kershaw, David Robertson, James McDonald, Jason Grilli, Jay Bruce, John Jason, Josh Rutledge, Justin Verlander, Marco Scutaro, Matt Wieters, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Pablo Sandoval, Sean Marshall, Shane Victorino, Tim Hudson, Wandy Rodriguez
By Princivalli on Feb 12, 2013
I think your results basically prove out your theory Ray. While it could very well be a competitive team you are reliant on too many question marks on the hitting side. It is always easier to overcome shortcomings on the pitching side than on the hitting side.
By Polo on Feb 12, 2013
I agree, way too many questions w/the offense.
While it may be competitive,the question is: can u win(the league) w/this team?
I think I would pass on this theory. Especially in money leagues lol
By Dave on Feb 12, 2013
It’s great you posted this. I did a mock last night where I waited on SP until the 13th round (filled out all my hitting spots, other than 2nd catcher before taking an arm) I then started putting together my staff, trying to protect ratios and get decent K numbers.
Surprisingly (and my own fault) I didn’t draft enough power, trying to BA protect too much in my opinion, so that hurt my offense even though I went so heavy on it. Something that could easily be corrected if I pay more attention. The projections also didn’t like my pitching staff that much, placing me 8th per the combined projected stats and 9th per HQ (which I trust the most)
So that got me thinking last night, I need to do a better job protecting my ratios. Even when I went hitter heavy last night, I still drafted Jansen and Marshall to help with my ratios, but it wasn’t enough. I was planning on doing a mock tonight doing this very strategy where I flip the script and take arms early, now I may not need to since you did the dirty work for me.
I wonder if there’d be any benefit from going hitter in the 1st, pitcher in second (decent chance Verlander or Kershaw MAY be there depending where you pick) hitter in 3rd, and then swoop in and grab a back end top 10 arm in the 4th. It would seem even doing that, and rostering 2 top 10 guys in the first 4 rounds would still allow you to wait on the rest of your staff until the 11th-13th round, all while grabbing some MR/high K guys towards the end of the draft.
Every year I hurt my pitching ratios and I’m getting tired of it, I don’t want to draft arms early, but it might be the only way my brain will allow me to keep my ratios under control.
By Tim on Feb 12, 2013
Saw the tweet and immediately ran to read the article. Work can wait. I was expecting you to continue to say that the pitcher strategy was still blasphemy. But I might be mistaken?
I play in a big money league nearly identical to what you did last night. 16-teams with one bench spot, 5×5 roto with k/9 instead of total strikeouts, min 900 ip max of 1375. If I was in your late position with pick #13, I would be all over the taking pitchers early, especially getting the pair that you did. Essentially locking up ERA, WHIP and K/9 categories barring injury. Might have looked into another RP with a high amount of job security to likely get into top third of saves category, but draft looks good overall.
I have always believed that strategies like this can work based on the league settings, which I believe you proved out with this 15-team mock, though will confess are useless for 12-team or less leagues.
Welcome to my side Ray, with the taking pitcher early if circumstances (league size and draft position) dictate it. Come on in, the water’s fine!!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2013
Polo – Yeah, not a huge fan of it either. lol
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2013
Dave – I’m here to inform and help.
I’m still not a fan of taking SPs early. Just not. I never take SPs early, and I never have issues with the ratio categories. You just have to draft the right guys. The Draft Guide helps to point you in the direction of the type of guys I’d target:
http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide
Remember this too…
SPs only help in 4 categories. Wins are never predictable either, so it’s really three categories. Kershaw has won 13/14 games two of last three years, and Verlander went 11-17 in 2008. Cliff Lee won six games last year… etc.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2013
Tim – Thanks for following my work.
Two hurlers, even ones this great, can’t lock up ERA and WHIP. You still need more depth. Strategies can work in any size lg if they are executed properly AND if the players stay healthy and perform as expected.
Oh, and I’m not coming over to the Dark Side… I’m no Sith.
LOL
By Jimbo on Feb 12, 2013
Ray,
Slight change to our baseball setting. Saves go from Saves to Net Saves. So if your closer is in line for a save but blows it then it’s -1 in that category. Should i just punt saves and load up for W,ERA,WHIP,K,QS and not worry about saves?
h2h 6×6 category – 12 team
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL
I normally wait like 8-9th round for my first pitcher. Does this format change my strategy?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2013
Jimbo – I NEVER punt a category. Just don’t like the odds it leaves you with.
Since you added QS though, you might consider accelerating your dive into the pitcher pool a bit.
By Ralph on Feb 12, 2013
Ray — OBP and QS league. Would you rather go M Montero then CJ Wilson or Lincecum then Napoli? Thank you as always!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2013
Ralph – Wilson and Lincecum are pretty much a wash in my mind. I’d rather have Montero by a little over Napoli as that hip thing still has me enough concerned not to be totally sold.
Go Montero/Wilson but it’s a razor thin call.
By joebagels on Feb 12, 2013
Got the guide, Love the SWIP section… OK sent a Q on twitter yesterday but made a move or two… 6X6 (OBP, No AVG) TB’s & QS extra CATS… can keep 3— Cueto $5, Yadi M $6, Rios $5, Craig $10, BJ UP $10… Thoughts? Thanks you as always
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2013
JoeBagels – Glad The Guide has hit the spot.
I’d keep Upton, Molina, Rios out of that group given the costs.
By joebagels on Feb 12, 2013
quick follow up, if we go to a one Catcher league(dont ask), do I keep Molina still? Should have mentioned this before….Thanks
By Alan on Feb 12, 2013
Ray,
Any suggestions or strategy on how to draft in a fantasy baseball points league?
Thanks
By Dan Hayes on Feb 12, 2013
This is pretty much why I don’t put too much stock in early expert mocks or expert recreational fun leagues. You don’t know if the expert is experimenting, which clearly was the case here.
By Craig N on Feb 13, 2013
Sorry, I was away on business Ray and missed your response. 4×4 category league, keeper, 260 cap, 12 teams, roto….I am offered Machado at $13 and Jennings at $16 for Cespedes at $17….should I do it?
By Vince on Feb 13, 2013
Hi Ray,
I hope all is well. I can’t wait for baseball to get here. I have a question in a keeper league. I can keep up to 4 of the following. I could chose to keep less than 4 and I would be able to draft higher.
The players that I could keep:
Elvis Andrus, Michael Bourn, Adam Dunn, Matt Holliday, David Ortiz, Álex Ríos, Brandon Phillips, Kris Medlen, Jake Peavy, Jeff Samardzija, James Shields
If I take less than 4 here are some players that could be available.
One guy has Beltre, Castro, Pujols, F Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw. Only 4 of those would be kept. Someone else has Granderson, Harper, Wright, Halladay, Lee. Again 4 would be kept. Pretty sure grenkie would be out there as well.
I went for it all last year (meaning I traded away some draft picks for this year). So if I kept 4, I would have my 5th round pick, but I traded my 6th and 7th rounds. It’s a 12 team league. Sorry for the long question, just don’t know what to do.
Thanks as always,
Vince
By joe gigs on Feb 13, 2013
Which of the following would you take a flier on in a ten team keeper league. Oscar taveras, taijuan walker, wheeler or Jose Fernandez? Its a 30 player team with 18 keepers. The draft essentially starts with the 19th round
5 bench players. Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Craig N – No thanks or please?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
JoeBagels – One catcher only does reduce the need to keep one substantially. If you wanted to go with the cheaper Cueto, that’s fine in this situation.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Alan – Points leagues… not as much diff as many think. It’s still about skills, playing time, and health. Best way to attack it would be to get a list of points from the lg from last year. Use that list, in conjunction with rankings – perhaps those from BaseballGuys – and marry the two together. Depending on how extensive the pts lg is the rankings could shift substantially or stay relatively similar.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Dan Hayes – I wasn’t trying to fake you or anyone out with the draft. Was merely trying to follow a pattern that many people follow to help them to see that it’s a more difficult way to win is all.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Vince – In a 12 team league, I’d keep the following:
Holliday, Phillips, Bourn.
I don’t think you have to go SP route, and I don’t see any other hitters that I have to have. HOWEVER — don’t you have to keep four guys given that you wont have a 6th or 7th round pick? You’re going to need all the high end talent you can get given that you are losing two spots. I’d hold Shields as the 4th.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Joe Gigs – I dont think any have a significant fantasy impact in 2013. That said, take Taveras. He’s got a shot to contribute this season, and there is oodles of talent there.
By Vince on Feb 13, 2013
HI Ray,
Rounds 1-4 would be your keepers. So if everyone kept 4 players their first actual pick would be round 5. If I kept only 3 players, I would actually get a 4th round pick then along with my 5th. I would not have a 6th and 7th round pick. So in theory I could keep 3 and then have a chance at one of those players on the teams I mentioned above. Also quick question. I like the 3 keepers you suggested, but I was surprised that Elvis Andrews wasn’t one of them. Do you expect a bad season for him?
Thanks as always,
Vince
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Vince – I’ve got Andrus ranked 8th in my SS rankings – http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
I like him, I just don’t think he’s worth keeping here.
You can roll the dice and pass on 4th keeper to get one of those that others don’t protect, but just know that you’re taking a chance since it’s not certain which player you could grab.
By Craig N on Feb 13, 2013
Come on man
Sorry about that. Was in a rush this am….what do you think about Jennings $16 and Machado $13 for Cespedes $17?
In Advance of your response, Thank You Very Much for your review of the deal.
Craig
By Jay on Feb 13, 2013
Hi Ray,
I have a k eeper trade question in my 10 team league 5×5 league with OBP for AVG and Quality starts for Wins.
I’m over Tulo and health risks… would you package him and Pujols for McCutchen and Verlander?
My other Keepers would be Braun and Matt Holiday.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Craig N – We’re all busy, me no less than anyone else…
Too much to give up in terms of the duo, it’s only about the cost. Can you afford the $29? If you can, I’d rather go that route.
By Craig N on Feb 13, 2013
Ray,
Do you think Machado is too young and has a 20 homer 70 rbi .270 ba 7 steals type season, or can he go for much better? There was the same rage for him that now exists for Jurickson Profar…..Also, Jennings a .245 hitter at this point? Experts around the web are clearly divided on him. I have seen him in a few guys top 8…..Where do you stand on him?
Thanks as always…fan of the show…
Craig
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Jay – Yes. I would deal Pujols and Tulo to get McC and Verlander. No issues with that move at all.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Craig N – I think Machado can reach the numbers you listed. Profar doesn’t seem likely to get a spot on Opening Day roster is his issue. Great talent of course. Jennings a big target of mine this season. Top -10 at OF is way too early though.
Rankings here – http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/