Player Profile: Drew Stubbs
February 13th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Drew Stubbs was dealt from the Reds to the Indians this offseason in a deal highlighted by Shin-Soo Choo heading to Cincinnati (Trade Breakdown: D’Backs, Indians, Reds). In case you missed it, here is a Stubbs fact from that piece that many may not be aware of: over the past three seasons that Stubbs has averaged 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals. So let me ask you, how many guys do you think went 17-86-33 in 2012? Let me save you the trouble of looking it up. There weren’t’ ten guys, nor seven, nor four, nor three. The answer is one. Only one man in baseball hit 17 homers with 86 runs scored and 33 steals, numbers that Drew Stubbs has averaged the past three years. The answer is Mike Trout (Stubbs fell short with 14 homers, 75 runs and 30 steals). Should you be paying more attention to Stubbs on draft day than his current ADP in the 250 range suggests?
Stubbs is coming off his worst full season as a big leaguer. Still, he hit the same amount of homers as Alex Gordon, scored the same amount of runs as Giancarlo Stanton and stole the same amount of bases as Ryan Braun. And that was Stubbs worst effort in three years.
Stubbs isn’t a big power hitter, but he hit 22 in 2010 and clearly has show himself to be a 15-20 type of threat. The move from Cincy to Cleveland isn’t likely to help – according to Park Indices the past three years right handed batters in Cleveland have a 72 mark in the homer category (28 percent below league average) while in Cincinnati that mark is 143 (the best in the NL) – so it would be best to set exceptions at the 15 or so level this year.
Are you old enough to remember the Rubik’s Cube?
As for the steals, Stubbs has stolen at least 30 bags in each of his three full seasons (he’s one of only six players over 30 each of the last three years: Michael Bourn, Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, Jose Reyes and B.J. Upton are the others). He’s a tremendous athlete with speed to burn, so there’s little reason to think he won’t extend his streak to four years, especially since his career success rate is over 80 percent.
The runs scored, now there is an area that he should be productive in yet again, though there is something we need to talk about despite Stubbs’ solid totals in that category (91, 92 and 75 runs the past three years), and it also happens to lead right into the biggest concern with Stubbs.
Stubbs owns a career .241 batting average and .312 OBP. Those are terrible numbers that fall well below the league average during his career as a big leaguer (.261 and .329). Given those marks his ability to steal bases and to score runs is in question. Miscast as a top of the order hitter for long stretches with the Reds, he’s hit leadoff or second in the order in 286 of 486 career games, he’s likely best suited to be a #6 hitter. If he does indeed hit lower in the order in Cleveland remember that each successive spot in the batting order that a player drops he loses 15-20 plate appearances over the course of a season. If Stubbs hits 6th all year, for example, that’s likely to lead to roughly 90 or so fewer plate appearances than if he were to bat leadoff. Fewer plate appearances mean less times to run, and likely fewer chances to cross home plate.
Now to the hulking pink elephant in the room. Stubbs’ batting average.
Who wouldn’t want an outfielder with 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals on their team? Would you still want that guy if he was a career .241 hitter?
Stubbs is never going to produce in the batting average category. Never. However, it’s not at all a stretch to think that his .213 mark from last season will be a lower water mark for his career. Just look at two simple factors to explain what happened. (1) After 3-years with a BABIP mark of at least .325 the mark fell to .290 in 2012. (2) The owner of a nearly a 19 percent line drive rate heading into last season Stubbs saw that number fall to 14.9 percent. If his BABIP and line drive rates go back up, as they should, his batting average should rebound. Now by “rebound” I’m still talking about a mark that may not reach the league average which was .255 last season. The reason is obvious – Stubbs strikes out more frequently than I do at a bar on Friday night. For his career Stubbs averages a strikeout every 3.05 at-bats. That means he’s pretty much going to average more than a strikeout a game. Last season he struck out 166 times, a three year low, but he also had fewer plate appearances than the previous two years. The truth of the matter is that his 30.5 percent K rate was a career worst (career 29.3 percent). Stubbs will never stop striking out. His average will never be impressive. He has to hope that his manager understands that and doesn’t bench him for it.
Stubbs is an elite athlete who is one year removed from 40 steals and 92 runs scored. There are certain holes in his game, there’s no way to whisk that away, but there is still value to be had here because so many have been scared off his trail. If you draft Stubbs in a mixed league you will have to augment his addition with a couple of big batting average bats, but as a fifth outfielder Stubbs profiles as a player who might just return a tidy profit this season.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Gordon, B.J. Upton, Coco Crisp, Drew Stubbs, Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Bourn, Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Shin-Soo Choo
By Nick Bonnett on Feb 13, 2013
This article is a prime example of why I love your work, Ray. Stubbs is someone I avoid like the plague on draft day, and you’ve convinced me that he’s at least “draftable”. Kudos.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Nick Bonnett – Thanks Nick. Hopefully Stubbs makes it happen for ya if you roster him.
By Ralph on Feb 13, 2013
Hey, Ray — Stubbs is definitely looking like one of those last year’s scrubs types who can help you out late in the draft.
Quick question related to OFs about your draft guide rankings. I notice that you only rank guys like Zobrist and Prado in the scarcest position for which they qualify. That said, where would you slot them into the OF ranks? My league counts OBP and TB. Thanks again, sir!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Ralph – In the Draft Guide I tried to rank players at the spots where they had the most value. A guy like Prado or Zobrist has their other eligible positions located next to their name to let you know. In terms of how to rank at other spots, using the $ figure assigned to them gives you a solid guide as to where they would fit in at other spots.
By Polo on Feb 13, 2013
Who do u like better to draft late: C. Young or Stubbs?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Polo – Not very close in my book. Didn’t get a copy of the Draft Guide I assume?
http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
By Polo on Feb 13, 2013
Yes, I have it & it’s great. The better question would be why do u like Stubbs better? Aren’t both capable of putting up similar numbers? Stubbs might steal more & Young will hit a few more homers
By costaricanchata on Feb 13, 2013
new elephant in the room … michael bourn .
how much will he affect stubbs’ AB totals ?
does stubbs now become trade-bait ??
thanking you , in advance .
p.s.
exactly what is your friday night swing and miss
percentage ???
hope you’re trending favorably .
By Jordan on Feb 13, 2013
I gotta say, I’m terrified of this guy even after your article. Over the last month of the season, he scored 1 fantasy point. One. Total. In a month. And he wasn’t injured. Even if he’s good during the regular season, isn’t there a significant chance he’ll crap the bed in the fantasy playoffs?
By Rex Weddle on Feb 13, 2013
Wow, he went in the 15th round in both the FSTA and LABR mixed. Greg and I took Carlos Gomez long before that! Maybe we shoulda talked to you more.
By Princivalli on Feb 13, 2013
I’m curious Ray. I understand why Stubb’s BABIP would be likely to rebound, based purely on chance. However, when a player’s line drive rate declines significantly, that seems to be a very strong indicator that the player is doing something wrong and luck is not involved. Why is it likely that his line drive rate should rebound?
By Pete on Feb 13, 2013
How does the Bourn trade affect Stubbs’ value this year? Does that mean lower ABs?
By Pete on Feb 13, 2013
whoops, saw someone already asked this. so i’ll ask you a keeper question instead. I’m in an NL-only keeper league where we can keep/draft up to 3 AL players. would you keep beltre in the 6th or ian desmond in the 11th? beltre is obviously better value for this year, but i’m worried about his age, plus it’s an OBP league and beltre doesn’t walk (and his avg will most certainly regress from last yr).
i think ian desmond could repeat his 20-20 season from last year… do you?
thanks!
By Jason on Feb 13, 2013
Just so you know, I can solve the Rubik’s cube in any formation in 90 seconds or less. My best time is 38 seconds. Its freaky… (not as good as some of the YouTube vids out there, but still pretty good)
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Polo – Stubbs has better shot at PT. Young is coming off such a down season, I just worry about him more than Stubbs. Obviously fair comp.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Costaricanchata – I don’t think Bourn effects Stubbs. Team has said OF will be Brantley-Bourn-Stubbs starting in OF almost every day. They have said the will not trade him.
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/301368178871779328
PS – Swing and miss percentage has gone way down of late… met a nice lady that is helping my contact rate.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Jordan – There is no way anyone can answer that question truthfully. No one knows. OPS in SEPT last yr:
.509 Reddick
.535 Phillips
.601 Howard
.623 Kinsler
Just don’t know.
Plus, you should do roto anyway… baseball is a 162 game season and is not meant for weekly matchups.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Rex Weddle – Maybe I’m totally off. It’s possible.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Pete – I don’t think Bourn effects Stubbs. Team has said OF will be Brantley-Bourn-Stubbs starting in OF almost every day. They have said the will not trade him.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Princivalli – He’s young enough there shouldn’t be any skills drop off. 17.3 percent LD for career, two years at 19 and 21 percent. Logic just suggests it comes back.Average out the last two years and you get = 17.2 percent, right on his career.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Jason – You rock. I could never do it that fast.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2013
Pete – Both guys are good values. Beltre is older, lost Hamilton, and isn’t exactly the healthiest guy ever – less than 125 games in two of the last four years. Desmond ain’t exactly and OBP monster either. However, at his 11th rd value, go Desmond.
By Jordan on Feb 14, 2013
I’ve done roto. It’s an interesting concept but I love the weekly point matchups. It adds a completely new dimension to the game.
By Morgan on Feb 14, 2013
Ray,
Love the guide. Quick question though pertaining to the dollar value of catchers you have designated….on average, how much in dollar terms would you increase per catcher in your guide for a two catcher league?
-Morgan
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2013
Jordan – I’ve got an article in the Draft Guide talking about why I think H2H is just a terrible thing for baseball.
http://baseballguys.com/2013/02/01/the-2013-baseballguys-com-fantasy-baseball-guide
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2013
Morgan – The Guide is set up with the expectation that the league IS a two catcher league. All leagues should be two catcher leagues at this point.
By Craig N on Feb 14, 2013
Hello Ray,
What do you think is the weakest position, or positions, in AL only this year? Thinking 2b by a landslide…..
Thank You,
Craig
PS Rubiks Cube….could never solve….did really well with the game SIMON….I know one is memory and Rubiks is a math concepts game…
By Pete on Feb 14, 2013
Thanks Ray! I forgot to mention I could also keep Rosario in the 22nd round… I usually don’t like keeping catchers because its so volatile, but do you like that value even more than Desmond in the 11th?
Thanks!!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2013
Craig N – Third base isn’t deep, neither is 2B or SS. As for second, I could see a solid group of six, and then it starts to get thin pretty darn quickly.
I remember Simon. I was better at that one too.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2013
Pete – Do you start two catchers? If you do you can keep Rosario in the 22nd. I’d still lean to Desmond in the 11th though, just a higher upside play all-around.
By Paul on Feb 14, 2013
Absolutely awesome analyis Ray. I have been completely ignoring Stubbs due to the crazy Ks and low BA, but this guy is SO worth a late round pick. Definitely keeping my eye on him now. Just purchased your Guide and I can’t wait to read it. Love your analysis on the blog and on Fantasy Drive. Can’t get enough!
By Jimbo on Feb 14, 2013
Tulo or McCutchen 6th overall
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2013
Jimbo – You gotta pick up a copy of my Draft Guide.
http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
It’s easily McCutchen for me.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2013
Paul – Thanks for all the support my friend. It’s appreciated.
By Jimbo on Feb 14, 2013
Jimbo – You gotta pick up a copy of my Draft Guide.
I have it
I thought there would be a few more hitter vs hitter comparisons but the guide is the best i have viewed. Very well done.
By Ender on Feb 28, 2013
I think you missed a couple of important factors here. Cle is absolutely brutal on RH. He is moving from the easier league to the tougher league. He is likely batting 9th which kills his R+RBI.
In addition to that he really doesn’t have nearly as much value when he isn’t playing CF and he struggles against righties so he very well may end up in a platoon at some point.
Obviously this article was pre-Bourn so maybe that last post isn’t very fair but it is certainly something to think about for those who just found the site and are reading it all like me!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2013
Ender – Stubbs is a potentially elite 5th OF given his nothing cost on draft day. If he goes 15/30 with 75 runs scored, and he’s the 65th OF off the board, I’ll take that. You wouldn’t?