Player Profile: David Ortiz
February 15th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Last season David Ortiz of the Red Sox had a better batting average than Robinson Cano (.318 to .313). Ortiz had more homers than David Wright (23 to 21). Ortiz had a better OBP than Buster Posey (.415 to .408). Ortiz had a better SLG than Miguel Cabrera (.611 to .606). Despite all of that rather amazing information I’m here to tell you that I’m not at all bullish on David Ortiz for the 2013 season.
First things first. Ortiz was limited to only 90 games played last season as an Achilles issue pretty much crippled him. The Sox continue to say that Ortiz is progressing well but Achilles injuries can be very tricky to overcome, especially when the player involved is 37 years old and not exactly a bastion of physical health (I don’t think anyone would want to see Ortiz at the beach. I can unequivocally say I would like to see Kristen Kreuk at the beach though. What a beauty, maybe that’s why she was cast in the CW’s Beauty & the Beast). Here are some quotes from Ortiz just a few days ago.
“I’m not completely recovered, but I’m going to be ready to go for Opening Day,” Ortiz told WEEI.com. “… it all depends what the doctors say. They say I’m going to have my days I’m not going to feel that well. I haven’t had those yet, but I haven’t started the hard stuff. But the one thing I can tell you is I’m able to do the agility drills without any pain, which I wasn’t able to do before, so that’s a good thing.”
Do you read that and get the warm and fuzzies? I certainly don’t. I read that and in my head here is what it says.
‘My Achilles was jacked up. It’s better, but I don’t have any idea how it’s going to hold up once I really starting pushing it.’
That alone should make you weary of drafting Ortiz.
A second significant issue is his age. Dude is 37 years old.
Third, and this might be the biggest killer, he’s only eligible at the utility spot in fantasy. Do you want to lock up your UT spot with a 37 year old, injured guy who may or may not be able to help you in April?
‘But Ray, Ortiz dominated last season, you said so yourself at the start of this piece.’
Why yes I did point out some rather amazing fact with Ortiz and his 2012 performance. Let’s dig a bit deeper into that.
Ortiz hit .318, his best mark in five years and .033 points above his career average. There aren’t many 37 year olds that nearly hit .320, especially when in three of the previous four seasons they failed to hit even .275. There is also this. Here are Ortiz’ batting average marks against left-handed pitching in 2008-10: .221, .212 and .222. How did a guy who couldn’t even hit .225 against lefties for three years manage to hit .329 and .320 against them the past two years? I’ve heard of players making adjustments, but really?
Ortiz has been able to walk as many times as he has struck out that last two years, and that’s impressive. Still, for a guy who owns a 0.73 career BB/K mark doesn’t it seem a bit odd that in the past season he set a career best in K/BB (1.10 last year)? It’s also very strange to see a guy post the two lowest strikeout rates of his career at 36 and 37 years old. Has he discovered the fountain of youth?
I could continue to break down the numbers probably losing half of you to coma-like symptoms, but let me just wrap this up. Here are the reasons I don’t trust Ortiz for 2013 even if his ADP is currently sitting in the 130′s in NFBC Drafts.
(1) He’s coming off a significant Achilles injury that limited him to 90 games last season.
(2) He’s still not full recovered from an injury that first occurred in mid July of 2012. That’s seven months and he’s still not back to full health.
(3) Ortiz is 37 years old.
(4) He’s only eligible as a utility option in the fantasy game.
For me those four points weigh more heavily on my mind than anything else. I would add in that his 2012 effort is not repeatable in 2013, and with that the death knell is basically ringing for me. At the right price every player has fantasy value, but for 2013 I fear that the price for Ortiz will be prohibitive and it should preclude you from calling out his name on draft in the majority of instances.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Buster Posey, David Ortiz, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano
By Joe M on Feb 15, 2013
Hey Ray
I’m bummed today. My league decided to go with SOLD’s. This kind of takes that advantage I had for the last few seasons away. I think it’s because they were all so frustrated already that they keep on drafting closers early/mid rounds and they all end up injured or lose their jobs as closers while guys like me draft solid arms late in the draft that all end up closing at some point in the season.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 15, 2013
Joe M – I’ve been championing SOLDS for years. Just a better way for RPs. Now you can target the best relievers and not have to worry if they are working the 8th or 9th.
By Brian H on Feb 15, 2013
Ray was surprised you had Ortiz at $23 in draft guide…health was less in question then though. Where would you value him now?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 15, 2013
Brian H – Remember what the $ figures represent. Look at what I wrote in the overview.
“*** NOTE: $ figures are an estimate of how much money you should be willing to spend on the player in a 5×5, 12 team mixed league (they serve as a rough guide for auction values)”
I’m not saying I would spend that much, only that you will likely need to be willing to go that high if you want to roster him. Health has always been an issue with him – thoughts haven’t changed there at all for me. If he plays 150 games he’ll earn that $23. Will he play that many though?
By Ralph on Feb 16, 2013
Ray — just ran through a 10 team mixed mock. Didn’t take a pitcher until round 8. Ended up with
Latos
Gallardo
Zimmermann
Samardzija
Brett Anderson
Parker
Dempster
Cobb
Gee
Perkins
Cishek
League
Rayis right — wait on pitching!,
Hitters:
Votto
Beltre
Granderson
Castro
BJ Upton
Holliday
Phillips
M Montero
Hosmer
Revere
Stubbs
By Ray Flowers on Feb 16, 2013
Ralph – in a 10 team lg there is even less of a reason to worry about arms. Just keep piling up those bats. You did really well with that offense.
By Brian on Feb 17, 2013
Ray,
I got Ortiz in the 9th round last year in a 12 team league because he was only DH eligible and everyone overlooked him. He is eligible at 1st base this year in my league. Assuming healthy, what’s a good projected round to target him? I’d be shocked if he went in the 9th round again this year with the added eligibility.
P.S. – I waited on pitching last year until the 6th round and ended up with Gio (6th) CJ Wilson (7th) and Shields (8th). Always wait!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2013
Brian – How on earth is Ortiz 1B eligible? That’s awful. He hasn’t played 20 games at first since 2004. The last four years he’s only been on the field 19 times.
As the article noted, I’m not going to end up with Ortiz this year. I just don’t trust him. If I had to put a value on him, I’d slot him in that third tier of 1Bs which means you’re liking looking at 7th round type.
By Jordan on Feb 17, 2013
Hi Ray, doing a great job on the player profiles. I was just wondering if you were planning one for Hyun-jin Ryu? Seemed unconventional given the circumstance but he was someone I was planning to target.
By Stephen on Feb 17, 2013
i play in a 12-team dynasty league with 40 man rosters and two util slots and 4 DL slots
i have had David Ortiz on my roster (keeping 30 this year, drafting ten) for the past 3 seasons.
debating whether to drop him after reading your take on him, which i fully understand and appreciate your leeriness…
i’ll be deciding on this in the next 3 hours…because that is our Keeper deadline. If i keep him it will be because any top production even for half a season in H2H (i know, you don’t like H2H, but here’s a case where i can make a case for several part-time contributors on a roster)….
but since we draft “prospects” (can’t put em on the active daily playing roster until they make it to the majors) too, i’m thinkin’ …well, know,if i drop him that will come back to haunt me….some week, no doubt. thanks for makin’ me think, Ray. i’ll apply it to my Roto league though!
Good stuff.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2013
Jordan – Glad you are enjoying the run of player in the Player Profiles. I could do Ryu, and I probably should. It’s just, admittedly, very hard to get a handle on a foreign player coming to North America.
He’s a big lefty who throws 90-92 mph. All his offspeed stuff is solid but not elite (changeup is best pitch). Moderate talent base – think Jonathon Niese like maybe?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2013
Stephen – Really depends on who you can keep Stephen. Also, depends on how many guys you keep. Since it’s 30, how could you possibly let him go? There’s no way, if he plays 120 games, that whomever you would draft would match his output. In your instance, with so many keepers, I think you have to hold on.
By Jordan on Feb 17, 2013
Yeah, it is a little difficult. I figured he’d be between dice-k and darvish, not that that’s saying a lot. Slightly unrelated question, thoughts on matt moore’s chances at a breakout season considering his massive slide at the end of last year? I’m thinking the needle is pointing up.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2013
Jordan – Matt Moore had a down Sept, but he was 3.01 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 79 Ks in last 77.2 IP. That’s pretty damn good isn’t it for a first year pitcher?
By Sig on Mar 6, 2013
Granted he’s old, fat, a DH, and coming off a fairly significant injury, especially for an old fat guy, BUT…..fast forward three weeks later where he’s run the bases two days in a row w/o any issues, (which is more than I can say for me). Does your opinion change at all? I’m in a straight up points league, with a ten man protected list that’s due on Sunday. My tenth spot is down to Ortiz or Jordan Zimmerman. I’m not worried about position as much, I just want the best player available.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Sig – Sure you can have the arrow pointing up since Ortiz is looking better physically, but that doesn’t change the skills analysis.
The whole ‘best player’ argument is often overblown in my opinion, especially since most people don’t really know how to determine that when talking pitcher v hitter. Also really hard to give an answer when their are keepers.
I’d go Zimmerman, but Ortiz is solid, especially if he qualifies at 1B.