Player Profile: Kris Medlen
February 18th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Kris Medlen of the Braves had one of the greatest half seasons of pitching in recent memory. Medlen was so dominating in the second half of last season that if your tripled his second half ERA it would still be under 3.00 (it was 0.94). He also went 9-0 while holding batters to a .189 batting average against. Fueled by his stupendous second half run Medlen ended up outproducing the following hurlers in overall fantasy value in 2012 despite throwing only 138 innings: Jake Peavy, Mat Latos, Yovani Gallardo, Jordan Zimmerman, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright etc. So heading into 2013 what do we do with Medlen? How highly should you rank him? Is the sky falling because he has no shot to replicate last years effort? The answer lies somewhere in there.
THE SECOND HALF
Kris Medlen made 19 appearances, 12 starts, in the second half. He went undefeated at 9-0 allowing him to tie the big league record for most wins in a season without a loss by a starting pitcher – ever. He was also on the hill for 23 straight team victories as a starter dating back to 2010. That’s the longest streak in baseball history. He struck out 95 batters in 95.1 innings. He posted a 0.94 ERA. He walked only 14 batters while holding hitters to a .189 BAA leading to a 0.82 WHIP. Can you pitch much better than that? The answer is no.
OVERALL
Medlen made 50 appearances on the year, 12 of them starts, as he threw 138 innings. All told he was 10-1 with a save and seven holds. He also had a 1.57 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, held batters to a .208 average, struck out 120 batters and walked just 23 batters. No pitcher in the 21st century has, other than Medlen, posted an ERA under 1.60 in a season of at least 135 innings. If we go back to 1994 only one other man joins the list – Greg Maddux in 1994 (1.56 ERA in 202 innings, and he followed that up with a 1.63 mark in 209.2 innings in 1995).
HEALTH
You might be wondering why Medlen worked extensively out of the pen early in the year before being moved into the rotation? The reason for the move, and it was planned by the Braves, was so that Medlen could work his way back into a grove after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The club thought, rightly so, that if they eased him into game action out of the pen early on they could then transition him into the rotation later in the year while keeping his innings down. A success story no doubt, but it does raise one issue. How many innings will Medlen be able to effectively throw in 2013? Here are his innings pitched marks since he became a professional (including his minor league work):
2006: 22.0
2007: 47.1
2008: 120.1
2009: 105.1
2010: 107.2
2011: 2.1
2012:151.1
Medlen has never thrown 155 innings in a season, and he’s never had back-to-back efforts of 110 innings. Are you so sure he will be able to throw 180+ effective innings in 2013?
SKILLS
Medlen struck out a solid 7.83 batters per nine innings last season. He at least matched that rate throughout his minor league career, but it should be noted that he isn’t really a dominating strikeout arm. It’s more about movement and location than it is about velocity (90.0 mph on his fastball last year). It’s more likely that his K/9 will recede slightly than grow in 2013.
Medlen walked 23 batters leading to a 1.50 BB/9 mark. In the 21st century only 12 hurlers have had multiple seasons of at least 135 innings with a BB/9 mark of 1.50 or lower. Obviously that is a phenomenal mark historically speaking, an it’s also substantially lower than Medlen’s already impressive 2.1 career mark in five minor league seasons.
It’s virtually impossible to think he’s going to post another 5.22 K/BB ratio (his minor league mark was about 4.8, another astounding mark). In a season of at least 135 innings there have only been 10 men in the 21st century with multiple seasons of a K/BB ratio of at least 5.20.
Medlen posted a 1.90 GB/FB ratio, an elite number. His ball certainly dives in the zone so it’s possible he will be able to repeat this mark, but it’s also fair to wonder if he will be able to repeat a 53 percent ground ball rate and a 28 percent fly ball rate. Also, his 18.5 percent line drive rate was just a bit below the league average of about 20 percent. It’s also fair to ponder if he will be able to replicate the .261 BABIP he threw up there last season. Because of all the grounders Medlen simply didn’t allow the long ball last season surrendering six dingers in his 138 innings. Is it reasonable to expect another season with a HR/F ratio of under six percent? I kind of doubt it, and so should you.
Medlen had an 85 percent left on base percentage last season, the highest mark in baseball (the big league average is usually right about 70 percent). There is no way he will repeat that number in 2013. None.
OUTLOOK
Medlen certainly has skills, but this is not Greg Maddux II – not after just one two-thirds of a season effort. He had one of the best runs that we’ve witnessed in a decade in the second half, but we’re talking about a total of 12 starts. Not only should there be some concern about whether or not his base skills are elite, there certainly should be at least a tinge of worry with Medlen when it comes to a potential workload increase. Not only has he never thrown 155 innings in a season, but he’s also never gone for 110 in back-to-back years and he threw 149 more innings in 2012 than 2011. If that jump in innings doesn’t cause some pause, I don’t know what will.
Can Medlen repeat what he did last season? No he cannot. Could he give 90 percent of last season? Maybe 85 percent? What about 80 percent? With the questions about workload, and the fact that you will likely have to draft Medlen as a borderline ace, I would pass on his services this season because he will almost assuredly be too pricey. That 1.57 ERA of his could double in 2013 while his WHIP is certain to climb upward, and sooner or later all the win/loss love will die out as well. Medlen has the look of a solid arm in ’13, failure is certainly not in the cards, but don’t be seduced by the power of a spectacular three month run to end last season – he’s not ever going to be that good again.
By Ray Flowers
By Rick on Feb 18, 2013
Hey Ray: Please help, just joined new league, second year ever playing Fantasy BB.
20 teams, 5×5 H2H,Dynasty Keeper league.
I need to keep nine Padres: Y.Grandal, Y.Alonso, C.Headley, E.Cabrera, C.Maybin, W.Venable, J.Guzman, A.Cashner, E.Volquez, C.Richard, L.Gregreson, E.Stults, C.Kelly.
I need to keep five others: A.Jones, M.Trumbo, G.Cole, J.Samardzija, T.Bauer, E.Bedard, S.Marshall, J.Peralta, A.Crow, V.Pestano, J.Hammel.
What would you say are the current strengths and weakness of my team? And got any tips or strategy for the upcoming 11 round draft?
Thank you, your time is greatly appreciated!
By Randy Marsh on Feb 18, 2013
Hey Ray
Did my first Mock of the season. I usually grab my first SP in round 5 to try and secure a Greinke or similar. Figured I would wait on this one and didn’t grab an SP till the 8th round. This is what I ended up with. Looking at this, I really think I’ll hold off this year and not jump on the ace in round 5.
12 Team
Hitters:
C: D’Arnad
1B: Teixeira
2B: Uggla
SS: Starlin Castro
3B: Sandoval
OF: McCutch / Bautista / Granderson / Bourn
Util/Bnch: Brett Gardner / Stubbs / Everth Carbrera
Starters:
Shields Morrow Peavy
Fister Garza B. Anderson Romero
Relief:
Grilli Jansen Pestano McGee
Thoughts?
Thank you
By Sanibel on Feb 18, 2013
Hey Ray.
Nice writing on Medlen!
I’m in a 14-team mix league, 10 keepers and $260 auction, 3-yr contract.
My keeps: Mauer ($18), Butler ($17), Freeman ($15), D. Wright ($29), David Murphy ($1), Prado ($13), Alf Soriano ($1), Greinke ($29).
Debating: D. Espinoza ($9) and BJ Upton ($33). Love Upton but steep price, no?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2013
Rick – Good luck this year.
1 Headley
2 Cabrera
3 Maybin
4 Volquez
5 Richard
6 Gregerson
7 Cashner
8 Alonso
9 Grandal
1 Jones
2 Trumbo
3 JS
4 Marshall
5 Cole
Hard to know here, but I would stay you need some help in the power department for sure.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2013
Randy Marsh – (I LOVE SOUTH PARK) I believe holding off can really work.
Starters solid talent… injury risks to be sure though.
Great OF and UT.
Only one C, gotta have a better option than guy who will likely start in minors.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2013
Sanibel – Upton at $33 is high, but in a keeper not out of control. you can keep him… especially since you have bargain elsewhere. I’d keep him over a costly greinke if that was the choice.
By Randy Marsh on Feb 18, 2013
I know you do, that’s why I figured instead of JoeM i’ll keep on surprising you with south park characters (Randy Marsh is probably my favorite character).
I took catcher last pick of the draft, there was still salti, arencibia, and a few others who I probably would have drafted over D’Ar.
Thanks for the feedback. Still working it, trying to tier about 15 mid round pitchers to try and get about 6 of them and go offense heavy for the first 7-8 rounds. It’s hard to hold back but the more I do it, the more pitching talent I see later in the draft.
Thanks again
By Sanibel on Feb 18, 2013
Thanks Ray. What your thoughts on D. Espinoaza in my post?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2013
Sanibel – $9 for Espinonsa is fine. I’d still go Upton though for talent. All ranked in Draft Guide –
http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
By Scott on Feb 18, 2013
Ray thanks for all of your help and im looking forward to reading the guide. Im in a 12 team points league. I have to keep 15 players. Im trying to decide on my final 3 spots. Im keeping my whole offensive line up.I have Lohse, Dempster, Ed Jackson , Tommy Milone , Kenley Jansen , and Capuano to choose from. I dont love any of these guys but do you think its a bad idea to keep Jansen ? I dont have a ton of confidence in league’s ability to keep the closers roll. What do you think and which three would you keep.Thanks again
By Jason on Feb 19, 2013
So I’ve been trying to get some worthwhile keepers in my 12-tm mixed league (6×6, H2H). So far this is who I am planning on keeping:
A. McCutchen (1st round keeper)
M. Bourn (8th round)
Asdrubal Cabrera (19th round)
I also have Y. Darvish (4th) and Howie Kendrick (14th) that I have considered keeping. We can keep 5 total.
I’ve been offered Cespedes (9th round keeper) and Weaver (5th round) for my 7th round pick (we have 23 rounds total, and this would be the 77th pick in the draft). Would that be a good trade for me to accept?
Also, who would you consider keeping out of all of those guys listed above? Thanks Ray!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2013
Scott – Gotta keep Jansen out of that group if you’re asking – and you are. U would follow him up with Jackson and Milone.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2013
Jason – If you can hold McC, Bourn, Cabrera, Weaver, Cespedes… that sound great to me. Give up the pick and make it happen. You’re not likely to get a better player than either of those two with teh 77th pick anyways.
By Jordan on Feb 19, 2013
Well I was about to push a trade through, but I’m not so sure now. I’m in a 10 team keeper league h2h points. We get 14 keepers. Basically a dynasty league. I was offered Beachy, Melden and a third round pick for C.J. Wilson and Lance Lynn (who I was probably not going to keep anyway).
I always thought the sky’s the limit on both of these guys so I was going to do it, especially since Wilson and Lynn are actually my 5th and 7th starters respectively. I figured I might take a hit this season, but in two or three years it would be well worth it. Do you think I should roll the dice?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2013
Jordan – I think getting the two youngsters is fine to do. A 3rd round pick is actually the 17th, so not a ton of value there. Given that Lynn isn’t a lock to long term rotation status right now with Cards, I can sign off on this… but know your taking a backstep in 2013 cause of Beachy’s health.
By Jordan on Feb 19, 2013
Thanks Ray. Actually Beachy’s status is what sold me on it. I can drop him to my IR and draft all of the pitchers I had my eye on. By the time he comes back, I’ll know which one isn’t worth my time. I really appreciate the personal attention you give to your readers. It’s why you’re the best. Thanks again.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 20, 2013
Jordan – If you have a DL spot, then adding Beachy is a fine move. Hard to have him take up a roster spot, but in your case you are golden.
By AP on Feb 23, 2013
Looking to get in another auction league. Can you help?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2013
AP – One of the best ways is to troll message boards. Maybe you can even get some fellas from this site to join?