Player Profile: Johan Santana
February 19th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
On June 30th of 2012, Mets’ starting pitcher Johan Santana had a 2.76 ERA. That means halfway through the year his ERA was under three. By the time his season ended in mid August his ERA was 4.85. What happened over the course of his last five starts was legendary (he was shutdown for good after his August 17th outing). Santana allowed at least six earned runs in each of his last five starts as he went 0-5 with a 15.63 ERA. Moreover, after throwing a career-high 134 pitches in his no-hitter on June 1st Santana dropped seven of 10 decisions with a 8.27 ERA and 1.76 WHIP while averaging less than five innings a start. Where does that leave Santana’s value heading into the 2013 season?
Johan Santana hurt his shoulder, and as we have seen repeatedly, shoulder injuries are much dicier than elbow issues. Santana’s shoulder issue precluded him from throwing a single pitch during the 2011 big league season so it shouldn’t have surprised many that he was only able to reach 117 innings last season. Did you listen when I warned against drafted Santana last February in One of Those Days where, to quote myself, I wrote the following: “Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was.” Let me be a bit more clear. Here are Johan’s innings pitched marks the past four years: 166.2, 199, zero and 117. Three of the past four years he hasn’t reached 170 innings, and the last time he tossed 200 innings was 2008. At 33, with a wonky shoulder, what are the odds he tosses 200 innings in 2013? I know the Mets are saying that they believe he will be able to carry a full workload this year, but that’s just crazy talk if you ask me.
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So what happened last year? The Mets allowed Santana to get the first no hitter in franchise history, but they paid a dear price. Santana, as I noted above, was never the same pitcher thereafter. You can say ‘coincidence’ and maybe you are right, but the data certainly is pretty overwhelming that throwing those 134 pitches just wiped him out. Taking a look at the rest of his 2012 season, the Mets really blew it. Johan made 21 starts last season. Only seven times, one third of his outings, did he throw even 100 pitches. The Mets were very careful not to allow him to throw too many pitches, and when they limited his pitch count he was very effective. However, that one slip up throwing those 134 pitches certainly appears to have been his downfall. Does that mean the Mets will use him as a 5-6 inning guy this season? Obviously that could cut into his win potential if they chose to deploy him that way.
Some other facts to consider with Santana.
His ERA in 2012 was an 11 year high.
His WHIP was a 10 year high.
His 3.00 BB/9 mark was a nine year high.
His 2.85 K/BB ratio was his second worst mark of the past nine years.
His 1.31 HR/9 mark was the second worst mark of his career.
For the third straight year he failed to post a GB/FB ratio of 0.80. He allows an awful lot of fly balls.
Finally, everyone loves to down Tim Lincecum for his lost velocity, but I wonder how many noticed that Johan has lost almost 4.5 mph from his heyday off his heater (it was a career low 88.4 mph last year)?
Could we find Bigfoot by using an aerial drone?
On the plus side…
His 8.54 K.9 rate was a four season best, though still below his 8.83 career mark.
His 3.00 BB/9 mark was still below the league average, and his 2.85 K/BB ratio were still a half batter better than the league average. They might be bad numbers for Santana, but they are fine for a normal hurler.
His line drive rate was 24.0 percent. Even if his stuff is no longer elite that’s a huge number for a guy who owns a career mark under 20 percent.
His HR/F ratio of 11.7 percent was the second worst mark of his career, well above his 9.2 career rate. Some normalization there would help.
The Mets are putting on a brave face saying that they think Johan will be good to go for Opening Day and that he will make 30 starts this season (they had better hope they are right since he is due $25 million this year with another $25 next season unless they buy out his 2014 campaign for $5.5 million). I’m not sold. As an aging hurler with lots of miles on his arm I’m concerned. Add in the shoulder woes he’s dealt with and the historic collapse he tossed out there at the end of last season and you too should be very concerned. There’s nothing wrong with taking a chance on Johan, he still knows how to “pitch,” but with all the issues surrounding him right now he had better be a reserve round type in mixed leagues and not someone you are counting on heavily in 2013.
- Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum
By Polka on Feb 19, 2013
Ray,
Quick opinion other than mine needed-
In a 7×7 League I am debating over the four following hitters, Cliff Lee is my keeper Pitcher-
Albert Pujols-
CarGo-
D. Wright-
Adam Jones-
HR/RBI/RUNS/Avg/K/SB/hits/
Leaning Albert, but CarGo has so much upside if he’d get 600 at bats for once!
By Craig N on Feb 19, 2013
Afternoon Ray,
I am being offered, AL Only 4×4, Zobrist $16/Jennings $16 and Machado $13 for Cespedes $17 and Smoak $13….do you like the deal? I do somewhat, but worry about the BA. He also offered the above package from his end, plus adding Stephen Drew at $10, and I would have to substitute Dayan Viciedo at $6 for Smoak…..what do you think? I really like Viciedo and Cespedes potential for this year, and worry that scouts may have missed on Jennings.
Thank You As Always,
Craig
By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2013
Polka – I’d go Gargo over Pujols. Last 4 yrs Pujols’ avg/obp are down. Last 3 his SLG down. CarGo just a more dynamic option.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2013
Craig N – Last season Jennings, in 5×5, produced $19, Viciedo $14. His steals really prop up his value. Smoak could be on the bench by the end of April. I look at it like this. I’d rather have Machado than Smoak for my CI. If I can get Zobrist and Jennings for Cespedes, then I’m all over that. I’d take the deal.
By Polka on Feb 19, 2013
Agreed, thanks brother!
By Polo on Feb 19, 2013
As a Met fan,u couldn’t be more right about Johan. That no hitter DESTROYED his season. I was yelling at the TV 4 the Mets to take him out after 7 lol. Even in the 8th,you could see the pitches were taking it’s toll. I blame Collins for leaving him in there
He wasn’t supposed go over 100 pitches & they let him go for 134! I would take a late round flier on him but like u said,don’t expect much
By Wayne on Feb 19, 2013
Ray,
I asked you this before but forgot the answer. What is the name of the online site that you use for baseball statistics – especially the ones you mention like fly ball rate, BABIP, K/BB rate, etc. ?
Thanks, Wayne
By Jim on Feb 19, 2013
Hey Ray, help a brother out PLEASE. Mine is a 16-team, 5X5 roto with just 4 keepers (max). I’ve narrowed down to R. Braun, J. Bruce, A. Craig, B. Butler, J. Heyward, A. Andrus and CC. Hoped to keep Braun and Heyward, and deal the rest for draft picks to get down to my four keepers. But the entire league knows I’m screwed with that many borderline studs, and I’m not getting bites.
No salaries are involved. I do have a solid offer of 3 high draft picks for Braun and Butler, which if I accepted would lead me to keep Heyward, Craig, Bruce and Elvis Has Left The Building. Is that as stupid as it feels?
One other question about the Draft Guide, which is awesome as usual. I noticed you ranked pitchers in (w/salaries) in AL, NL, and Mixed in Excel files, but I didn’t receive anything for hitters. Did you shortchange me again because I stuck you with both the bar tab and my ugly girlfriend last month, or was something lost in transmission?
Big thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2013
Jim – I’d go Braun, Bruce, Heyward then tough… Butler.
Remember – 16 teams, four keepers… that means a “first rd pick” is actually a 5th round pick. #2 is 6th etc. I’m not dealing Braun/Heyward for 5th/6th round picks.
At the bottom of the Excel Files in Draft Guide are tabs. Simply click on the tab for the position you are looking for.