Are Your Expectations Reasonable?
February 22nd, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Today I’m going to break down a handful of players an attempt to refute the prevailing wisdom about at least one aspect of their game. Hopefully the piece will be a thought provoking one, even if you disagree with my conclusions.
Robinson Cano‘s Power
Cano hit 33 homers last season, the first time he reached 30 in his career. The assumption is that Cano is now a 30 homer hitter. It’s obvious, right? He hit 30 homers last year. He plays in New York were the stadium had a Park Indices mark of 146 last year for left-handed home run hitters (46 percent above the AL average). He’s Robinson Cano. Despite all that, he’s not a 30 homer hitter. Besides the obvious fact that he’s gone deep 30 times just once in eight seasons there are a couple of salient points. (1) Cano’s 1.89 GB/FB ratio last season was a career-high (his career mark is 1.55). (2) Cano hit fewer fly balls last season than ever before at 25.8 percent. A career-high in homers despite a career-low fly ball number – is there something rotten in Denmark (a quote from Shakespeare’s Hamlet. How dare he speak of my homeland in such a way)? (3) Cano’s HR/F ratio last season was a career best 24.1 percent, a massive step up from his career 13.7 percent rate. It was also the first time he posted a mark above 17.0 percent. Unless Cano hits a lot more fly balls this season he isn’t going deep 30 times again (if he does hit more fly balls, it could end up costing him in the batting average category).
Chase Headley‘s Power
I explained all about Headley’s like power outage this season in his Player Profile.
Torii Hunter‘s Batting Average
Hunter hit .313 last season, a career best. There’s no chance he repeats it. For more, check out his Player Profile.
Can anyone save SMASH?
Matt Kemp is Injury Prone
I’ve been hearing this a lot on The Drive, my radio show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Monday through Friday, 5-8 PM EDT). I just can’t understand why people think this. In 2010-11 Kemp missed one game. One. From 2008 through 2011 he appeared in at least 155 games each season. Kemp’s total of 637 games played those four years were the 6th most in baseball and just seven behind Prince Fielder‘s leading total of 644 games. So Kemp has a couple of ailments limit him to 106 games last season and all of a sudden the 28 year old is a big time injury risk? Don’t consider me part of that camp.
Giancarlo Stanton is Worth a First Round Draft Pick
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Stanton posts the following numbers this season: .292-39-122-103-2. I’m not saying he gets there, those are huge numbers and likely unattainable (at least the average and runs scored marks), but let’s just say he does. If he does that, gets those numbers, he’ll earn about $28 or so dollars this season. That’s just not first round value folks.
Joey Votto‘s Power
I got in a Twitter discussion the past 12 hours about Votto vs. Cano, and one point that was mentioned was that Votto’s power was in decline so his value was waning. Really? The facts. (1) Votto owns a .553 career SLG. The mark was .567 last year. He had a better than career average SLG last season folks. (2) Votto had a 1.18 GB/FB ratio last year. His career mark is 1.19. (3) Votto did post a four year low fly ball rate of 32 percent, but that was just slightly off his 34.4 percent career mark. (4) Votto did hit only 14 homers in 374 at-bats last season. However, that knee injury of his crippled his ability to drive the baseball late in the year. In fact, he didn’t hit a single homer over his 87 at-bats in the second half of the season. Let’s remove those 87 at-bats for a moment. When he was healthy, the first 83 games, he went deep 14 times, hitting one long ball every 20.5 at-bats. For his career, that mark is one homer per 19.5 at-bats. Status quo here folks.
- Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. More than 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Chase Headley, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano, Torii Hunter
By Todd on Feb 22, 2013
Cant help but think Giancarlo’s RBI opps will be limited. Hard to see over 105+ rbi. It will be interesting to see how teams pitch around him and how he adjusts.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2013
Todd – Can’t disagree with you.
By Polka on Feb 22, 2013
Kemp is NOT injury prone people, he is a BEAST!
Votto and Cano are not 30 bomb hitters…studs,,,in every aspect of the word, just not 30 bombers.
Ray,
I need 5 of these clowns, another opinion would be great- $8 MAX-
$3.50 Stanton
$4.40 Longoria
$6.60 Votto
.90 Mauer
.90 Konerko
.10 Hart
1.00 Cuddeyer
I’m keeping Darish @ $1.70 and most likely Mike Adams at .10 and possibly Bettencourt @ .10 also?
My plan was
Darvish-1.70
Adams-.10
Bettencourt- .10
Mauer-.90
Stanton-3.50
7×7 league and we have Holds but looking at the minimal drop at 1st I’m debating between Konerko and Bettencourt? Cheap saves when I rarely pay for them is a bonus but is he worth it?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2013
Polka – Five of those clowns eh… I liked that line.
If you only have $8, you can’t keep Votto or Longo.
Stanton, Mauer, Hart = 4.50.
Darvish and Konerko = 2.60. That’s well under eight at 7.10.
I worry about Betancourt being dealt, but if your league still counts holds it’s less of an issue.
By Morgan on Feb 23, 2013
Ray,
As someone who watches pretty much all of the Yankee games, I can tell you I think Cano’s power is for real. He progressed as a hitter in many ways last season compared to past.
I ahve been doing mocks with using the $ figures you ahve in your guide. Basically no matter what, I am drafting Pedroia in the 2nd round(12 team) no matter what. I think that is a little early for him but I just don’t see any other person I like (Tulo, Longo, Stanton, etc.) Would you recommend drafting from the highest dollar amount you ahve projected downwards? Is the 13-19th pick too early for Dustin?
-Thanks Ray
By Brian on Feb 23, 2013
I always wait on pitching. In a 14 team roto league, is it more important to grab power hitters early (1st five rounds) and worry about pitching and steals later? It seems to me power might be at a premium in a 14 team league.
By pd on Feb 23, 2013
I can keep one rookie and cant decide.
Rizzo or Rosario?
Also would you keep King Felix over Justin Upton or Josh Hamilton? I can keep 3 players also keeping Kemp. Its 12 team H2H. Thanks for all your hard work!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2013
Morgan – I like Pedroia an awful lot. I would rather take him at #19 than Cano at #4 every day. If he’s your second round guy, I’m personally totally OK with that. 13 is a bit early, but guys like Stanton, the hurlers, Bautista… I don’t want to take them that early.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2013
Brian – In drafts, Gardner/Crisp/Pierre/Revere are all going far later than they should, so you can get speed late. I also agree that waiting on pitching is still the way to go as well.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2013
PD – Go Rizzo. I like Rosario a lot, but see last year as his peak. As for Rizzo, could become an elite option.
I would rank the others: Kemp, JUP, King Felix, Hamilton.
By Erik on Feb 23, 2013
You’re saying that if Stanton hits 39 home runs with over 100 runs and rbis with a .290+ ba that those aren’t first round values? Do you know how many players did that last year? 12 players had over 100 runs, 18 over 100 rbis and only FOUR did both. Add in 39 HRs (which is low if he reaches the other 2 stats – he hit 37 in less than 500 abs last season) which would place him 6th last year. Come on man, those are easily first round values. The question of if he reaches those numbers is legit, but if he does he will clearly be a first round value.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2013
Erik – Mark Teixeira posted the following numbers: .292-39-122-103-2 = that was worth $28 in 2009. That was 14th in baseball in 2009. If you are in a 12 team lg, those weren’t first round numbers.
By Morgan on Feb 24, 2013
Ray,
In regards to the 2nd round…I don’t like any of thsoe guys. It seems like there is just a huge dropoff from the top guys
By Erik on Feb 24, 2013
Ray, when did Teixeria bat .292? His stats from last year where 66/24/84/.251. I think you need to recheck your info. Again. If only 4 guys in the entire league had over 100 runs and rbis and you add 39 bombs with a BA over .290 – that is easily first round value. Please tell me 12 players that had more value last year than that. And use real numbers not fake numbers like you did for Teixeira.
By Erik on Feb 24, 2013
I just noticed that 2009 was the stats you used. How arbitrary is that? Offensive numbers have gone way down in the last 4 years. The numbers you gave for Stanton, when compared to what the league is doing in 2012-2013 are first round values. We aren’t in the roid era anymore. Come on man, that is just bunk to use numbers from 4 years ago.
By Erik on Feb 24, 2013
Just too illustrate my point more. In 2009, 22 guys had 100 or more runs and 28 had 100 or more rbis and 10 guys did both. With several guys just missing out on one or the other. Obviously, if you take the stats you listed for Stanton and randomly apply them to past seasons you will get a different value. But I was under the impression that this is 2013? I can’t believe that you are making this argument let alone giving others advice on this topic. And why did you pick 2009? Why not 1978 or 1956? Just plain bad on your part.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2013
Matt W – The two I would hold on to are EE at the dish. Even with some pullback, steal strong.
http://baseballguys.com/2013/01/07/player-profile-edwin-encarnacion/
Ian Desmond will be my second choice. Strong SS option.
If you want to go in another direction, Big fan of Gallardo and Moore. If playing for this season, go Gallardo. If thinking future, Moore is a solid option.
By Lawn Gnome on Feb 24, 2013
This has nothing to do whatsoever with this article but what say you about Grandtsons injury? Gardener now a mid rounder? 10 weeks from now will only be 1 month into season but what would you do Ray a far as a late 2nd/ 3rd rounder like Granderon shelved to th first month.
Cheers,
Buddo the Lawn Gnome!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2013
Lawn Gnome – At this point, Granderson is out for all of April at least is sounds. Will he be 100% right when he returns? I’ve dropped him about 25 spots in my OF rankings as of now. There is NO WAY I’d draft him in the top-5 rounds unless it was an AL only lg. He’s like Corey Hart – likely to be very productive, but if you’re missing at least a month of the season…
By Andrew on Feb 25, 2013
Ray – So in H2H leagues with DL spots, where would you be willing to draft Granderson (8th-9th) and Hart (12th-15th)? Thanks for your hard work!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2013
Andrew – Your guess is as good as mine, and that’s the real issue. We hear 10 weeks for Grandy and assume it’s gospel. He could be back in 8 weeks. It could be 12 weeks. He might hit the ground running, he might struggle until the ASB. No one knows the answer here. Hart, he says he’s a month ahead of schedule. His manager says he isn’t. Who do you believe?
You can roster both with the DL spot, but honestly, I don’t really know what to tell you on adding either. I dont know how many teams are in your league. I won’t know how your team looks after eight rounds etc. The rds you list are fair, but it all depends.
By Pablo on Feb 25, 2013
Hi Ray,
I have to say I agree with Eric. He was a bit harsh on you, as I think you have lots of knowledge to share about fantasy and I enjoy your site. However, why did you use 2009 to come up with the value for the numbers you gave Stanton? Shouldn’t you value those stats for 2012 or are you projecting that offenses in 2013 will match what happened in 2009?
Thanks, Pablo
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2013
Erik – I think YOU need to recheck your info. Clearly in your rage to label me an idiot you didn’t bother to read what I wrote.
Mark Teixeira posted the following numbers: .292-39-122-103-2 = that was worth $28 in 2009.
Before you go attacking someone, maybe you should get your facts straight.
My point was, and still is, that guys that don’t steal bases can be eclipsed in fantasy value by others that do, even if their counting numbers are impressive.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2013
Erik – I used Tex in 2009 because the numbers he posted that year are the type of numbers that people expect from him in 2013. I could have used the following guys from last year if you prefer.
Prince Fielder $30 – .313-30-108-83
Albert Pujols $27 – .285-30-105-85
Stanton $25 – .290-37-86-75
Willingham $22 – .260-35-110-85
The problem Erik is that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how to apply performance to FANTASY VALUE.
Where you aware that…
Rajai Davis earned $22, the same as Willingham?
Michael Bourn earned $28, more than Pujols/Stanton last year?
For that matter, where you aware that the following pitchers all earned $30 last year -
Rodney $37
Verlander $36
Kershaw $36
Kimbrel $34
35-100-100 is a fantastic season, but in fantasy unless there is a strong batting average or some steals in there, it’s just not likely to be a top-10 fantasy season.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2013
Pablo – See my just posted comments. They go into the 2012 numbers.
By Erik on Feb 25, 2013
First of all, no one is expecting Tex to repeat his 2009 numbers – that is crazy talk. Also, How are you achieving the dollar value? What formula do you use? I would argue that it is you who has the misunderstanding. You project Stanton to have more HR’s, Rbi’s, Runs and steals than Fielder did last year yet earn less than him? According to the stats you listed for Stanton, he will out produce Fielder in 4 of the 5 standard cats, yet some meaningless hits that don’t result in counting stats earned him more than Stanton’s projections? Totally whack, man. You need to reassess your dollar value formula.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2013
Erik – I have NOT projected Stanton to earn anything for 2013. I merely compared the 2009 output of Tex to what peoples expectations are for Stanton for 2013. Those are not my expectations. I never said Stanton would reach those numbers. In fact, I think he has no shot at hitting .290, and 100 runs/rbis in that lineup might also be a stretch too.
Second, when did I ever say I thought Tex would repeat his 2009 numbers? I never said that either. You’re making too many assumptions based on things you perceive, not on things I’ve said.
My dollar figures for 2012 are taken from the Baseball HQ Forecaster (I used it since it was sitting on my desk and was easy to flip through). Again, back to my original point, you aren’t understanding fantasy value which is different than real world value.
Even if we give $30 to Stanton, if we use 2012 as baseline… here are the earned values of some players –
Trout $54
Braun $45
Cabrera $42
McCuthchen $40
Rios $34
Hamilton $33
Beltre $33
Cano $32
Headley $32
Encarnacion $31
Pitchers…
Rodney $37
Verlander $36
Dickey $36
Kershaw $36
Kimbrel $34
Price $32
That’s 16 guys right there who earned more than $30 last year.
By Erik on Feb 25, 2013
Um, ok man. If you want to stick to your guns and say that in 2013, if a player hitting .292 with 39 bombs and 100+ runs and rbis isn’t worth a first round pick, that’s cool. I just won’t be reading work anymore because that is just crazy talk.