K-BAD – 2013: Part I, Rounds 1-14
February 27th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
For the fifth straight year I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL.com (you can click on the link to see how everyone else in the draft evaluated their own selections). Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be your truly). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the third overall pick in the draft which was completed just wrapped up as the month of February came to a conclusion).
A little bit about the league and what to expect in the three part piece.
I’ll break down my draft, pick-by-pick. Part I will be a review of selections 1-14. In Part II I’ll review selections 15-28. Finally, in Part III, I’ll give an overview of the draft and share how my team worked out, where I missed out on players, and let you know if The Oracle made any mistakes (shockingly he made one glaring mistake).
12 teams, 28 rounds
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
9 pitchers: P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P
Bench: five spots
Round 1: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
The most consistent hitter in the game. He lacks the speed of others taken at the top of most drafts, but he makes up for it with unmatched consistent excellence. I would never have taken Mike Trout here, so I was very pleased when this future HOFamer fell to me.
Round 2: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS
If a down year is 20/20, and that player qualifies at two positions, sign me up. HanRam has been a .250 hitter the past two years, and that’s obviously a significant issue, but his ability to contribute across the board while giving me flexibility is well worth drafting at this spot, though I was secretly pining for Dustin Pedroia who went one spot ahead of me.
Round 3: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Starlin Castro
I really wanted to take David Wright here. However, with a 3B (Cabrera) and another 3B eligible player (Hanley) already on my roster with my first two picks, I couldn’t justify locking up my corner infield spot this early with a third 3B eligible player.
Round 4: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Austin Jackson, OF
For the second time in three rounds the guy I wanted was taken one spot ahead of me (this time it was B.J. Upton who I also considered in the third round). At this point of the draft I wanted to get an athletic outfielder which I was able to accomplish.
Round 5: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shin-Soo Choo, OF
I could have gone the route of Michael Bourn here, but there seem to be players falling much later with similar skills (Pierre, Revere types). In the 5th I went with another across the board talent in Choo who should thrive hitting in Great American Ballpark.
Round 6: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Martin Prado, 3B/OF
As I continue to pile up offense, I targeted a versatile hitter who qualifies at two spots. Prado’s a nice little hitter, and I know Howard Bender wanted him badly so why not take him. A .300 season with 10/15 and 100 runs seems possible.
Round 7: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yadier Molina, C
You can make a legitimate case that my team, after seven picks, has to be looked at as a club that could hit .300. It’s not often you can say that. However, Molina was my third choice as the two players I had teed up – Hill and Bumgarner – went with the two selections before my spot came up.
Round 8: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James Shields, SP
Others might be nervous with Shields as their top arm. I’m not. He’s about as stable as they come on the hill, get’s a lot of punchouts (8.82 per nine last year), and combines that skill with an increasing ground ball rate (52 percent in ’12).
Round 9: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yovani Gallardo, SP
I was faced with a real toss up between the power arm and consistency of Gallardo, and the likely better ratios but less dominating arm that Johnny Cueto brings. Since Cueto is coming back from an injury, I went with Gallardo.
Round 10: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Nick Markakis, OF
Markakis is exactly the type of player I like to target. He’s consistently solid across the board, is a veteran, and his value is depressed since he’s coming off an injury plagued season. Many don’t know that per 162 games his 5×5 line is .295-18-85-89-9. I’ll gladly take that.
Round 11: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Trumbo, OF/1B
He was amazing in the first half, then he was awful in the second. All told he hit 32 homers with 95 RBIs while batting .268. I’ll gladly take a repeat at this point of the draft from the dual position threat.
Round 12: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dexter Fowler
Will he ever learn to hit on the road? His BABIP was league leading last year so the average might fall a tad from .300, but I think there could be a 20/20 season here.
Round 13: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Ben Revere, OF
Smart to take him with Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp still on the board? Probably not, but I’m a big fan of Revere’s speed game (turns out I was right and should have waited to draft Pierre rounds later).
Round 14: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jon Lester, SP
I believe Lester will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.
I’ll continue my review in my next column by looking at selections from rounds 15-28.
- Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Austin Jackson, Ben Revere, Dexter Fowler, Hanley Ramirez, James Shields, Jon Lester, K-Bad, KBad, Mark Trumbo, Martin Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Shin-Soo Choo, Starlin Castro, Yadier Molina, Yovani Gallardo
By Kris on Feb 27, 2013
Hi Ray, Thanks for the great work as always. Can you help me out with my last keeper? I’m in a 12 team, 5×5, and we can keep 5. I am keeping HanRam, Heyward, BJ Upton, and Grienke. Who should be my last keeper from Aramis Ramirez, Zobrist, R.A. Dickey, or Roy Halladay. Thanks for your help….
By Ms Choksondik on Feb 27, 2013
Hey Ray
Just my opinion as a baseball/fantasy fanatic, I’m not knocking, again, this is just my opinion looking in from the outside.
Overall I really like it so far. Too bad about BJ Upton, I think I’m just as high on him as you are, not to slight Austin Jackson especially if he continues to improve with his patience at the plate, but I love Upton’s upside, it’s a shame you missed him by one.
I hated the Molina pick till I noticed it was a 2 catcher league, cant really go wrong there.
I think the only areas I don’t really like too much is round 10-13.
- I am not a huge Markakis fan, but he’s the type of OF’s around at that time so it’s not a bad pick by any means, I just don’t like him in particular.
- I think your hopes are too high for Fowler, For that type of player I probably would have targeted guys like De Aza and Aoki over him (in that ADP range). But I understand the pick and that people have to go with their gut sometimes.
- I definitely agree with your love for Revere, but as you said, it was way too early for a specialty guy (If I was shooting for a guy like this early and not wait for a Pierre, I would have shot for a guy like Gardner a few rounds later).
Really curious to see your SP staff in the second half of this draft since it seems like I’m waiting till around the 8th pick for my first pitcher as well so really trying to put as much info together of starting pitchers from mid rounds and on.
Thanks for posting this
Ms Choksondik
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
Kris – Great top-4 keepers. Give me Zobrist for 5th. A potential 20/20 guy who plays OF, 2B and SS… I like that an awful lot.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
Ms Choksondik – Thanks for the response.
Still surprises me how many people seem to overlook the value of steals. Like I said, a mistake with Revere since others fell so far, but I still think he can give me 13th rd value.
Might be wrong on Fowler, but if he puts it all together he’ll be a better option than De Aza, Aoki.
All leagues at this point, or at least they should be, are two catcher leagues.
By Carl Rispoli on Feb 27, 2013
Ray, love what you did here. Shows that you can wait on pitching and still get solid arms after round 8. The only pick that stuck out to me was Austin Jackson round 4. I did’t realize you were so high on him. Can you tell us what you expect from him this year? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
Carl Rispoli – I keep waiting on pitching, and keep getting solid arms. People say you can’t, but I certainly think you can.
I’m not overly high on AJax, but there were already 20+ OFs off the board. He should be very good. Just the best option left, and I had to start hitting the OF.
See – http://baseballguys.com/2012/12/27/player-profile-austin-jackson/
By Polka on Feb 27, 2013
I’ll take the possible upside of Jackson over that Average Killer BJ, But really like what you’ve done. I also subscribe to the 8th round Pitching take and watching these drafts of so called “experts” makes my see that I’ll be able to pull it off again in my drafts too!
Shields/Gallado is a solid 400k’s and 26-38 wins…
I’m having a little debate/mancrush on Castro this year too, and is it wrong to just pile up everywhere else and think Kyle Seager may pound this year and grab him as my 3b after everyone takes one?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
Polka – But Upton has that 40 SB upside…
Seager is solid. My Player Profile: http://baseballguys.com/2013/01/31/player-profile-kyle-seager/
By RotoSaurus on Feb 27, 2013
whoa whoa whoa… easy on the upside of the wins there, chief. Gallardo has some efficiency issues, resulting in his not being able to stay in games as long as you’d hope from an ace, so I’d say 17 wins, which is his career high, is your upside. Shields’ career high in wins is 16.. it certainly isn’t going to be any higher in KC. I’d plan on about 30 Wins from those 2. Problem with Jackson is we don’t know who he is yet. Is he the .290-.300 hitter we saw in 2010/2012, or the .250 hitter we saw in 2011? Is he going to steal bases? He’s gone from 27-22-12 the last 3 seasons… not a good trend. And his 16 HR last year looks like a bit of an aberration… I’d say he’s closer to a 12 HR type hitter. I’ll take BJ’s power/speed upside, despite the AVG
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
RotoSaurus – Shields and Gallardo won, what, 31 games last year? The mid point between 26 and 38 is… 32 wins. Pretty much the same thing that Polka posted.
By Steve Davis on Feb 27, 2013
Ive tried to wait til the 7th or 8th round to take my 1st SP in many mock drafts but Im just not liking how my staff turns out. I end up taking too many high risk/high reward SPs that could really kill ratios ie Lester, Haren, Wilson.. Ive won plenty of times taking pitching late but I think this year I may take an ace just a couple rounds earlier then get a Shields for an SP2. Ive noticed getting a Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez type in the 5th along with the next group my staff seems more stable. Im very scared of Gallardo. Hs been a whip machine as long as Ive seen him pitch. Granted he will get tons of Ks but I am terrified when he takes the mound lol. As far as your early rounds went Im not too crazy about Castro in the 3rd. He doesnt provide much power and got caught stealing a ton last year in the 2nd half. I wonder how that will impact his attempts this year. Plus their lineup sucks. I cant stomach taking him in the 3rd round. I was Shocked you took Jackson in the 4th. Even without an OF yet there wasnt someone better? At that point being alot of OF were gone maybe you could have taken an Ace. Its the last thing I ever want to do but sometimes its warranted. That may have been one of those times, Id rather have Choo this year over Ajax and you got him a round later. Hey this was one of those drafts that things didnt fall your way. Still could pan put with good management. Good Luck!
By Jason on Feb 27, 2013
Ray, wanted to get your thoughts on a paticular player in my league format (1 catcher league).
I know i can wait on catchers in a 1 catcher league and still get great value, but in a league where we use OBP rather than AVG, is there value in going after a guy like Mauer in earlier rounds who not only leads catchers in OBP but is also atop all players in MLB?
By Polka on Feb 27, 2013
Ray,
Im a Tiger guy is all..I know BJ can run with the Bulls…And thanks for the vote of Seager confidence…I was going to lay in the weeds until someone calls him up to auction, and with Kornerko kept at 1st, I could load up on Cano and Castro in the middle and a beast OF to go with Stanton Keeper as well…and still get one more cheaper 1b in case Konerko shows his age, but not one of the top five, maybe a Texiera? I’ve always paid for a destroyer 1b AND OF…and one more Posistion, because I felt it made a difference???
By Ender on Feb 27, 2013
There is no logical reason to take Cabrera over Braun, the who steroids thing is a complete non issue for anyone who has followed the story which I can only assume is why you did it since Braun has been better than Cabrera by a very wide margin over the past 5 seasons and is younger.
The Austin Jackson pick is just awful. Seriously this is a pick that has almost no chance to work for you at that spot. He just doesn’t steal enough or hit for enough power to make 4th round value as a leadoff hitter even if he repeats the AVG which is really unlikely.
I like the rest of the draft though.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
Ender – First off, Trout and Braun went 1-2 overall. I had the #3 pick so I took Cabrera. I have Braun as the #1 guy in fantasy. Have always said that.
Second, Jackson was the 18th OF taken in this draft. A bit early? Certainly could be. However, he earned $25 last year… the same value as Giancarlo Stanton and two dollars more than Bruce.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
Jason – Certainly. Mauer is a beast in AVG and a monster in OBP. Either way he is elite. Still, it’s only a one catcher lg, and that really makes me shy away from even Mauer given the obvious health risks at C, but if you’re gonna go early, he’s a fantastic target.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2013
Steve Davis – I don’t personally see MadBum or Gio on a tier ahead of Shields. In fact, I have Shields ahead of both in my rankings.
Can be scared of Gallardo if you want, but why? All he’s done for 3 yrs is average 16 wins, 200 Ks and 3.60 ERA. He’s as stable as they come. His career WHIP of 1.29 ain’t great, but still better than lg avg and Gio’s career mark is HIGHER at 1.33.
As for Jackson… shocked everyone is downing him so much. He has hit better than .290 with 100 runs scored and 20 steals in two of his three seasons. He’s also at the top of, arguably, the best lineup in baseball. So I got Choo a round later. Flip flop the rounds… does it really matter? Not at all since I got them both.
Castro – I explained in the piece why I went with him over Wright.
I love how everyone is writing my team off without seeing half of it.
Last year EVERYONE said my NL LABR team was the worst they ever saw. I was tied for first place with four days left in the season and finished second.
Give it some time to breath.
By Brian on Feb 27, 2013
Ray your the best….your guide is the best. i learn so much from u and i enjoy listening to u everyday. thank u so much
By Brian on Feb 27, 2013
Im looking to join a auction roto league. I know the NFBC has one but its a little to steep for me. Do you know of any sites that have them for a couple hundred bucks or so. Im extremely competitive and would like to find a league that would fit me. Email me back if you can help me out.
Thanks. . Im a big fan!!
By Keith on Feb 28, 2013
Ray, need some last minute help before keepers lock at midnight. 10T, 5×5, H2H, keep 8 with no round value. Currently have Braun, Pedroia, Votto, Bruce, Lawrie, C. Santana, Bumgarner, and Greinke locked in. Any reason to make any changes with J. Zimmermann, Wainwright, Medlen, Rosario, Machado, or Freeman still in reserve? Thanks for any advice.
By Ender on Feb 28, 2013
Oops sorry about the Braun thing, for some reason I thought you picked #1.
I guess we’ll see on Jackson, he isn’t in my top 25 at OF and I think that $25 value is way too high for the stats he put up, I’m guessing you used forecasters numbers which always seem wonky for $ values. 15/15 with limited RBI from leading off is what I want from a mid round picks, not my 4th pick.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2013
Brian – Glad you enjoy my written and spoken word. Thanks for the support.
The NFBC is a place I trust, so I always tell people to look in that direction when it comes to money leagues.
Auctions might be a little expensive for you, but they have low price pts for snake drafts.
http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/leagues/online.asp
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2013
Keith – If I had to keep eight, here would be my list.
1 Braun
2 Votto
3 Pedroia
4 Bruce
5 C. Santana
6 Greinke
7 Bumgarner
8 Lawrie or Freeman
Personally, I’d go Freeman, but if you don’t want to lock in your CI this early, go Lawrie.
Did you get a copy of my DRAFT GUIDE? It would have helped you answer this question pretty easily.
By Polo on Feb 28, 2013
Actually I like Jackson. Tigers want him to run a little more. In most drafts, he’s going a few rounds later so I can understand why ppl think its weak pick. However,With all the outfielders been taken before him, the pick makes sense. The flow of the draft force you to take Jackson. He’ll score ton of runs & maybe 20-25 steals. A good avg. Not bad at all.
Also, Ray practices what he preaches: he followed his guide.
By Craig N on Feb 28, 2013
Hello Ray,
What do you think about me giving up Cespedes $17 and Frieri $13 for Jennings $16 and Zobrist $16 in AL Only 4×4…..
Thank You as Always,
Criag
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2013
Polo – I do try and practice what I preach. Gotta be consistent… at least try to.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2013
Craig N – Do the deal. $13 is steep for Frieri, and chance he ends up as a setup man long term. Get the other duo who has dynamic talent.
By Steve Davis on Feb 28, 2013
Ray. Before last season Ajax hit 10 and 4 homeruns including a .249 avg in 2011. Last year he stole only 12 bags and got caught 9 times. Im not sayin he sucks but do you really think hes proven enough to warrant a pick that high in a draft? Obviously you are high on him. What stats would he have to put up to break even as a 4th round pick? I have targeted him in alot of mock drafts but have gotten him in the 8th, 9th and sometimes 10th round. Like you said, OF was getting shallow so you did what you had to do.
By ken on Mar 1, 2013
ray al east nl east nl central league to watch the east coast guys. keep 8 what u think…
estrada 1
lynn 4
cueto 7
pierre 5
zobrist 16
a jones 22
frazier 10
cano 40
braun 40
chisek 13
tx ken great draft guide
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
Steve Davis – I’ve totally laid out my thoughts on AJax in the following article – http://baseballguys.com/2012/12/27/player-profile-austin-jackson/
As I’ve noted elsewhere in this comment string, there were already 18 OFs off the board, and I didn’t have any. I’m not seeing AJax fall that far very often, but the most recent NFBC ADP info has him at pick 99 with him going as early as 52nd overall.
At the end I try to LEAD. I don’t follow what everyone else does cause everyone else does it.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
Ken – I would drop Lynn and Estrada. Both are solid values to be sure, but they are not up to the level of others in terms of the production they will likely offer. Hard to keep both Braun/Cano, but worth doing.
By Lawn Gnome on Mar 3, 2013
What’s up with all the Hanley Ramirez love? This guy has burned so many of us that took him second overall a couple years ago (or 3), I can’t see how anyone has faith in him. Plus I’m a Dodger fan. He sucks!.
Ray you are probably the hardest working expert in your industry. Can’t get enough of you and Kyle’s show because you guys are core and only talk about baseball – no gimmicky loud yelling like Vitale, that idiot Mad Dog, or Stephen Smith – why do some American sports fans seem to like the people that yell the loudest? And no chicks thrown in to please the dorks that listen. Nothing against Kay but your show is way better without her on it making all these non sports pop culture references.
Keep it real buddy!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 4, 2013
Lawn Gnome – RE: Hanley Ramirez — why does everyone hate him? Do you know how many guys went .257-24-92-79-21 in 2012? Ryan Braun and Hanley Ramirez. That’s it.
We do the best we can to make the radio show enjoyable. Thanks for the support. Glad to hear what we are putting down is being received well.
By Paulibucks on Mar 4, 2013
Hey Ray,
12 team H2H, points.
Need to keep 2 from;
Wright-rd3
Mauer-rd4
Kipnis-rd 14(gonna keep him)
M Harvey-rd22
B Anderson-rd22
J Rutledge-rd22
W Myers-rd22
you can keep a player year to year, but the draft slot moves up 3 spots each year.
Thinking keep Wright and Kipnis and get top arm and big bat in the first 2 rds. I have the ninth pick
By Ray Flowers on Mar 4, 2013
Paulibucks – I would hold Harvey and Kipnis. Anderson might be better this year, but it’s Harvey who has the dominating stuff.