K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team
March 1st, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.
C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)
STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)
RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27
For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.
For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.
MY MISTAKES
My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).
My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.
PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK
I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez
I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.
Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.
OVERALL THOUGHTS
As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.
On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.
We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.
Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.
For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Austin Jackson, Ben Revere, Bobby Parnell, Dan Haren, David Robertson, Dexter Fowler, Domonic Brown, Dustin Ackley, Hanley Ramirez, James McDonald, James Shields, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jon Lester, K-Bad, KBad, Kenley Jansen, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Mark Trumbo, Michael Brantley, Nick Markakis, Shaun Marcum, Shin-Soo Choo, Starlin Castro, Steve Cishek, Yadier Molina, Yovani Gallardo
By costaricanchata on Mar 1, 2013
my 2 cents :
jettison domenic brown and pick up another springtime pitcher .. sp or rp .
by the time d brown gets worth rostering (IF) ,
you should be able to recover him .
By Ender on Mar 1, 2013
Given the high potential variance of ERA/WHIP of your rotation I think you did great with the RP picks. Even if they don’t pan out for SVs they should put you right at the top of the league in K and very competitive in ERA/WHIP while not spending early picks on pitching. If they do turn out well for SVs you have a top half pitching staff while going heavy offense.
By Mr Mackey on Mar 1, 2013
Just looking at the first 4 players you missed out on would in my opinion completely change the dynamics of your team.
- Pedroia instead of ackley.
- Upton instead of Ajax.
- Adding Bumgarner to that rotation would have completely solidified the rotation and give you much much more breathing room for the 3 question marks and you could have probably got a decent catcher instead of Revere in the 13th to replace Yadier (since BumG would have been in place of the Yadier pick)
- Corey Hart would have been a great addition to your outfield to add the 25-30HR potential without sacrificing your avg.
The worst feeling is getting players pulled from right under you during the draft Mkay. If it happens once or twice you can always have you second favorite guy, Mkay, but when it happens throughout the draft it just gets plain frustrating and can really kill a team when anchor players are constantly being pulled from you. Doesn’t happen very often to people but it’s tough to bounce back from when it does throughout the draft. Mkay.
And I absolutely and completely agree with the beautiful women link. I think they belong on every mans roster.
Mkay
Mr Mackey
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
costaricanchata – If I dropped Brown, he would be picked up by someone. Remember, this is an experts lg… not many guys disappear in these lgs.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
Ender – Now you’re seeing the light.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
Mr. Mackey – I’ve always thought your glasses were pretty sharp.
Like I wrote, can’t believe how many times I was snaked, not just overall, but one flipping pick before my turn. Never seen anything like it.
By Ender on Mar 1, 2013
Hey I always said I liked the team. I just have issues with a few specific picks
. You have 28 players, nobody is gonna like them all.
By Jim on Mar 1, 2013
Ray, thanks for sharing this K-Bad miniseries. Poring over the results of the entire draft, I agree that you got snaked out inordinately. But so did a couple of other owners. My two cents: a little light on power with not-so-hot risk/reward attached to Reynolds, Salty and Trumbo.
HOWEVER, Shields is the value pick of the draft, bar none. The whole staff is good enough — and the price paid is inexpensive enough — to get yourself some power should you need it. I’m all in on that pitching, big time.
I’m sure other readers noticed you were getting a little weepy till you dropped that Beautiful Women bomb into the story. So remember, as my granddaddy told me, it ain’t sexism if it’s therapy. And therapy takes dedication. Carry on, soldier.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
Jim – I ain’t the dumbest guy in the world. You’re grandfather was one smart fella.
By Princivalli on Mar 1, 2013
Hi Ray
I’m wondering why you seem so down on S.Perez. I’m not thinking he’s a top tier catcher but after Posey,Mauer,Molina & VMart (if eligible), I don’t see why he can’t be near the top of the next group. Granted he doesn’t walk much but he doesn’t K much either. He’s got good power. Only Santana & M Montero have a significantly better on base pct. All he’s done is hit since he’s come up and he’s still only 22 years old.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
Princivalli – I gave my thoughts on Perez in his Player Profile. Give it a read.
http://baseballguys.com/2013/01/03/player-profile-salvador-perez/
By Princivalli on Mar 1, 2013
nice, thanks Ray. I expected a nice concise wrap up and you provided as always!
By Pat on Mar 1, 2013
Ray – looking for some advice for a 12-team keeper league. we protect 14 players and I’m down to my last 2 and picking from these 5…Josh Reddick, Jayson Werth, Rickie Weeks, Derek Holland and Jason Motte (we start 2 relievers). Any advice? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2013
Pat – In a lg with this many keepers, closers will be kept. I’d hold Motte. Of the others, pass on Holland. It’s an OF or Weeks. Given that Weeks could be a top-5 2B if healthy all year, he’d be the second guy I would hold.
By Pat on Mar 1, 2013
Thanks Ray…always appreciate the insight. Thanks
By Craig N on Mar 2, 2013
Help!
Would you trade Cespedes $17 for Longoria $30 and Jennings $16?
4×4 roto al only keeper league
Thank you as always,
Craig
By Edgar on Mar 2, 2013
im considering trading medlen and olt for goldy in az. i agree with you that medlen is not going to have the same year and olt meant have a spot in Texas.
also what do you think about my other keepers. cueto sale cargo and longoria?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2013
Craig N – Longo is expensive, but Jennings is at a solid price. I think you have to do it… it’s a big $ add, but that’s too much talent to pass on.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2013
Edgar – Goldschmidt should be able to be had for Medlen straight up. Dont know how many teams you have, or how many keepers. Olt has little value right now, but his bat one day could rival that of Gold so I don’t like the idea of tossing him in if you hold on to a good amount of players.