AL LABR 2013
March 4th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Phoenix Arizona.
Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.
Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.
12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)
C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)
PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)
BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry
My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).
Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.
I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.
Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.
On the hill…
I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?
In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.
The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…
So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?
Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Ben Zobrist, Brian Wilson, C.J. Wilson, Chris Archer, Chris Young, Derek Norris, Drew Stubbs, Dustin Pedroia, Eric Hosmer, Grant Balfour, Hector Gimenez, Howie Kendrick, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Jimmy Paredes, Joe Blanton, Joel Peralta, Jose Valverde, Josh Donaldson, Kelly Johnson, Kevin Youkilis, LABR, Marwin Gonzalez, Michael Pineda, Nate McLouth, Nick Swisher, Quintin Berry, Sergio Santos, Ubaldo Jimenez
By Princivalli on Mar 4, 2013
hmmmm, Crickets? well I like your team Ray, you got some real good value. cj wilson at that price is a steal. very interesting that Hosmer ends up being your 4th highest acquisition. I think thats more a testament to the fact you got great value across the board as opposed to having overpaid for Hosmer. Best of luck!
By Brian on Mar 4, 2013
Hey Ray!!! What an awesome picture there. That is heaven of fantasy baseball!!!
Looking forward to my 10 team NL auction coming up. Keeper league. $280 budget. 5X5 H2H. 5th batting category is OB% in place of AVG.
I’m keeping harper, bruce, jupton, and madbum. Looking for my final keeper(don’t have to keep a 5th if i don’t want to). Pitchers for some reason go very very high in our league…people overpay bigtime for them. My other keeper options are Gio $28, Freese $15, Utley $13, M.Montero $11(1 catcher league), Scutaro $5 or Brett Jax $6. Who do u like if any as a 5th keeper? Utley looking healthy has caught my eye…
Love the show and your insight on the Drive.
Thx!!!!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 4, 2013
Brian – It is a pretty neat picture ain’t it?
Gio too much for me.
One C lg diminishes value of Montero.
Utley I like at that cost actually. I’d take shot on him.
By Polka on Mar 4, 2013
After just leaving Mastersball to check out Perry’s and Lawr’s teams, Mr. Flowers OR Grandpa Flowers:) Love the photo too, Dude I love your team, that Wilson was a bargin for a very good pitcher, and I’m mancrushing Zobrist and Kendrick this season myself…If Jacoby stays healthy, well avoids the flukiest injuries ever that will be great too. Jimenez for $1, I’d buy that for a dollar too…if your bench gets signed and plays those could be steals, or if they don’t the next old guy picture gathering!
By Goose on Mar 4, 2013
Hey ray – like your team, would have been nice to grab morrow or Scherzer, but cj at that price is a steal!
Keeper question, al only 5×5, trying to decide between De Aza at $10 and Morneau at $13 as my final keeper…which one do you think has better value?
Thanks.
By JP Paul on Mar 5, 2013
Ray, I am using the LABR results to get ready from my draft and was wondering if there is anywhere that shows everyone’s reserve choices as well? I see yours above, but can’t seem to locate the choices that the other 11 owners made.
Thanks, J.P.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2013
JP Paul – If you click on the link at the bottom of the article it takes you to a page that lists the entire rosters of each team.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2013
Goose – Luckily Wilson fell at a bargain price after the other two righties went for such big money.
I’d go De Aza at those prices. Morneau says he is healthy, and maybe he’s a .275-25-100 guy this year, but De Aza is cheaper, brings speed too. Just like him at that cost.
For Morneau – http://baseballguys.com/2012/11/09/player-profile-justin-morneau/
By Joe Gigs on Mar 5, 2013
Hey Ray,
I’m looking for a final starter for my roster. I’m looking at four different starters that are available. Please let me know who your pick would be:
Wily Peralta
Edwin Jackson
Phil Hughes
Mark Buerhle
By Joe Gigs on Mar 5, 2013
Sorry Ray,
Hughes is off the board. The final guy is Jaime Garcia
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2013
Joe Gigs – Edwin Jackson. Most stable arm with K upside (Peralta not certain to make rotation, Mark B has no Ks and is in AL East, Hughes I never trust).
By Joe Gigs on Mar 5, 2013
Should Julio Teheran make the rotation?
By JP Paul on Mar 5, 2013
Ray, three things:
First, love your show on Serius XM. I listen to you every night on my commute home.
Second, I checked the link at the listing on rtsports shows the 23 active players, but does not show the bench players. Is there a place to get that?
Third, I have a keeper question. I can keep 5 in an AL only roto auction with 10 teams. My options are: Victor Martinez $6, Brett Anderson $6, Anibal Sanchez $6, Matt Moore $11, Jason Kipnis $11, Eric Hosmer $11, Ryan Dempster $6, and Mike Moustakas $11. I think that Martinez, Anderson, Kipnis, and Moore are definates, but I’m wavering between Sanchez and Hosmer for my last slot. Any thoughts?
Thanks, J.P.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2013
Joe Gigs – He appears in line to be the 5th starter for the Braves.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2013
JP Paul – Trying to get the reserve round picks for you… don’t know if they are up anywhere at the moment actually. I know they will (obviously) be in the USA Today article about the event.
Vmart, Moore, Hosmer are my locks. I’d then go Kipnis and Sanchez.
Glad we can help you with the drive home.
By JP Paul on Mar 5, 2013
Ray, the USA today article did have the reserves. Look no further.
Thanks for the keeper advice, J.P.
By Dan G on Mar 5, 2013
Just wondering. Why is Pedroia worth 29 bucks? If he gets 12 dingers and 18 steals with a .290 average, is that really worh it? I wonder if he is one of those players that is much better in real life then in fantasy.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2013
Dan G – RE: Pedroia. Per 150 games for his career his fantasy line has been .303-16-72-98-18. That’s better than you suggest.
He’s hit at least .290 every season he’s had 500 at-bats.
His last four seasons with 550 at-bats he’s stolen 20 bases.
His last four healthy seasons he’s earned: $36, $26, $36 and $24. That’s an average of…$33 a season.
By Ender on Mar 12, 2013
On top of what Ray said Pedroia is likely to bat 3rd this year so the RBI are likely to go up. He has trended up in both HR and SB and only a thumb injury last year kept that from showing. I’m very comfortable drafting him at the end of the 1st round in a 14 team league.
2011 is likely a healthy Pedroia year and it is a year as good or to be honest better than what Cano usually puts up.