Rookies & Prospects – Are They Worth It?
March 6th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
So you want to be one of those “smart” people in fantasy baseball that takes the hot shot rookie for the “upside” play early in the draft OK, maybe you aren’t that person, but let’s say you are more than willing to scoop up that prospect in the 15th round because of the “boring” options that are available. As I point out all the time, give me a team of Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, Adam LaRoche and Michael Cuddyer and nine times out of 10 I will crush your team of Jurickson Profar, Domonic Brown, Dylan Bundy and Mike Olt. It’s just the way it is. Well, it’s the way I tell you it is without actually attempting to quantify that position with facts. Now we have them.
The following discussion comes from the mind of Kyle Elfrink. It’s not just his brainchild, in terms of him coming up with the idea, but it’s also penned by him. So special thanks to Kyle for the research he did to dig up the facts, and for allowing me to post his words here on the site.
I searched Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects (perhaps the most trusted source on minor leaguers) every year, going back to the turn of the century in 2000. (note: I did not include either 2011 or 2012 because it’s too early to give close-to-definitive answers on players). Here’s what I found.
- 89 different prospects were listed as ‘Top 10′ over the course of 11 years (many players were repeats from one year to the next).
- 29 of those 89 were ‘hits/fantasy assets’ (32.5%)
- 22 of those 89 were ‘OK fantasy players’ (24.7%)
- 38 of those 89 were ‘misses/busts’ (42.8%)
- If you repeat from one year to the next, your chances are quite good of becoming a serviceable MLB player (Joe Mauer was a ‘top 10′ prospect for four years!).
- Hitters have a far better success rate than pitchers … 31 of the 52 ‘hits’ and ‘ok’s’ have been hitters.
- Projections have become much better in the past few seasons.
- ’04 and ’05 are the only years since 2000 with more than three hits.
- What has the ‘Top-3′ done over the years? Well, not including ‘repeats’, there are 10 hits, eight misses, and 3 OKs … less than 50% of the top-3 (i.e., guys that most everyone thought would become All-Stars) since 2000 has been a ‘hit’ … i.e. a good fantasy player.
- 2013 list - 1. Jurickson Profar 2. Dylan Bundy 3. Oscar Taveras 4. Wil Myers 5. Jose Fernandez 6. Shelby Miller 7. Gerrit Cole 8. Xander Bogaerts 9. Miguel Sano 10. Byron Buxton
- History says that three of these will be hits … two will be hitters … Profar, Bundy, Myers, and Miller are repeats from previous years, thus helping their odds
2000 – 0 hits, 3 OK, 6 miss, 1 repeat
1. Ankiel (MISS)
2. Burrell (OK)
3. C. Patterson (MISS)
4. V. Wells (OK)
5. N. Johnson (MISS)
6. R. Mateo (MISS)
7. Burroughs
8. Furcal (OK)
9. R. Anderson (MISS)
10. Patterson (MISS)
2001 – 3 hits, 2 OK, 1 miss, 4 repeats
1. Hamilton (HIT)
2. C. Patterson
3. Beckett
4. Rauch (MISS)
5. Sheets (OK)
6. Burroughs
7. Sabathia (HIT)
8. R. Anderson
9. Ichiro (HIT)
10. N. Johnson
2002 – 3 hits, 1 OK, 6 miss
1.Beckett (HIT)
2.Prior (MISS)
3.Blalock (MISS)
4.Burroughs (MISS)
5.Pena (OK)
6.Cruz (MISS)
7.Mauer (HIT)
8.Betemit (MISS)
9.Henson (MISS)
10.Tex (HIT)
2003 – 4 hits, 2 repeat, 4 miss
1.Tex
2.Baldelli (MISS)
3.Reyes (HIT)
4.Mauer
5.Foppert (MISS)
6.Contreras (MISS)
7.Phillips (HIT)
8.Matsui (HIT)
9.Floyd (MISS)
10.K-Rod (HIT)
2004 – 4 hits, 1 repeat, 3 OKs, 2 miss
1.Mauer
2.Upton (HIT)
3.Del. Young (OK)
4.Ed. Jackson (OK)
5.R. Weeks (HIT)
6.Rios (HIT)
7.K. Matsui (MISS)
8.Miller (MISS)
9.Sizemore (OK)
10.P. Fielder (HIT)
2005 – 2 hits, 3 repeats, 5 miss
1.Mauer
2.F. Hernandez (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Stewart (MISS)
5.Guzman (MISS)
6.Kotchman (MISS)
7.Kazmir (MISS)
8.R. Weeks
9.Marte (MISS)
10.H. Ramirez (HIT)
2006 – 3 hits, 1 repeat, 2 OK, 4 miss
1.Del. Young
2.J. Upton (HIT)
3.Wood (MISS)
4.Hermida (MISS)
5.S. Drew (MISS)
6.Liriano (OK)
7.Billingsley (OK)
8.Verlander (HIT)
9.Miledge (MISS)
10.Cain (HIT)
2007 – 2 hits, 3 OK, 2 repeat, 3 miss
1.Dice-K (MISS)
2.Al. Gordon (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Hughes (OK)
5.Bailey (OK)
6.Maybin (OK)
7.Longoria (HIT)
8.B. Wood (MISS)
9.J. Upton
10.Miller (MISS)
2008 – 3 hits, 4 miss, 3 repeat
1.Bruce (HIT)
2.Longoria
3.Chamberlain (MISS)
4.Buchholz (MISS)
5.Rasmus (MISS)
6.Maybin
7.Kershaw (HIT)
8.F. Morales (MISS)
9.Bailey
10.Price (HIT)
2009 – 2 hit, 3 OK, 3 repeat, 2 miss
1.Wieters (OK)
2.Price
3.Rasmus
4. T. Hanson (OK)
5.Heyward (HIT)
6.Snider (MISS)
7.B. Anderson (MISS)
8. Maybin
9.Bumgarner (HIT)
10.N. Feliz (OK)
2010 – 3 hits, 4 OK, 1 miss, 2 repeat
1.Heyward
2.Strasburg (HIT)
3.Stanton (HIT)
4.J. Montero (OK)
5.Matsuz (MISS)
6.D. Jennings (OK)
7.Posey (HIT)
8.Alvarez (OK)
9.N. Feliz
10.C. Santana (OK)
Tags: Byron Buxton, Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Joe Mauer, Jose Fernandez, Jurickson Profar, Miguel Sano, Oscar Taveras, Rookies, Shelby Miller, Wil Myers, Xander Bogaerts
By Ralph on Mar 6, 2013
Ray — I have Granderson in a 10-team keeper with 30 man rosters. Thinking about just using my last pick to add a replacement for him, rather than trying to address as though I need an additional OF. thoughts?
By Shawn P on Mar 6, 2013
Great stats and analysis. I just can’t help myself though, for me, part of the fun is the diamond in the rough. I remember picking up Tim Salmon and Alex Rodriguez on the cheap in back t back years in an auction dynasty draft back in 93 and 94. I like to make sure I do a few flyer picks every year. Maybe it costs me to do this, but it jacks up the fun factor for me.
By Tim on Mar 6, 2013
Ray, what I’m seeing this year is the impact that Trout and Harper had last year has changed mindsets this year. People who missed out on taking a flier on them the past few years are panicked they’ll miss out again. In many of my keeper leagues, I’m seeing the guys like the Billy Hamilton’s and many of the names on your list above going off the board in the first round of the draft (note for readers: not true first round) if they weren’t part of a team’s keepers (number varies by year). I think guys like Harper and Trout rare once every 8-10 year type players.
Completely fine by me that people chase prospects in keeper leagues and even more fine by me in middle-late rounds of standard leagues, as I’m taking guys like Paul Konerko at my corner infield spot and Josh Willingham as my 5th OF in, by standard terms, the 15th plus round. Please and thank you is all I have to say!
Other league mates always ask me how I finish at the top year after year after year without chasing prospects or as they call term them potential stars, and I just look at them with a blank stare and say “I’m just lucky I guess” when in reality I’m thinking “your question is the answer you are looking for, pal?”
This article was a good read and good research. Nice work by Kyle.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Ralph – Can’t answer you completely without knowing the player you will be adding. Do you start 5 OFs? Who do you already have at OF etc?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Shawn P – I think a lot of people agree with you. But my advice, and you can tell me to go to hell if you want, is not to do it. Draft with your head and not your heart and more times than not you will come out ahead.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Tim – Just keep doing what you are doing amigo… sounds like we are right in line with each other.
By Darren D on Mar 6, 2013
Assuming we’re talking dynasty leagues here, it is way too early to call Brett Anderson a miss and Montero, Perez and Jennings just ok.
I definitely agree with not taking rookies in redrafts, outside of the odd 1 or 2 dollar flyer I’d throw at Myers/Profar if they were still around, but in a dynasty topping up your team with a few prospects every year is the lifeblood of a franchise. Once you get past the first few years of a league’s existence and your first batch of talent starts declining, you can’t expect to live in search of the Edwin Encarnacion type breakouts.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Darren D – Obviously this isn’t talking about a dynasty lg where you keep your entire roster. When that is the case you must take youngsters of course.
I would argue though that even if you are in a keeper league that holds, let’s say five guys, that it doesn’t make sense to reach on rookies there either. It would have to be a deeper keeper lg.
In a re-draft league… this is nails.
By Darren D on Mar 6, 2013
Well if you’re just talking about redraft leagues, then we shouldn’t care about the players’ careers at all. All we should be comparing is their performance the season after their inclusion on the top 10 list to their ADP that year. And then most of the sample is useless because how many were in the low minors at that time? How many were getting drafted at all, much less getting drafted too high?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Darren D – Re:Anderson… he was solid one year. He then disappeared for two years. Hard to say that isn’t a “miss.”
Talking about list right now on Sirius210, XM87!
By Polka on Mar 6, 2013
I love the list of the players of wet dreams Trophies past! Delmon Young…what a sack!
I LOVE Tavares and know I will have to over pay for any big ticketed name rookie this year thatnks to Trout and Harper wrecking it last year, and with the health of Cardinal OF’s I love his chance of sticking…blasted another bomb today! Honestly I see Profar as a Kinsler/Andrus hybrid without the 20 HR pop? Am I wrong on that assesement?
Last year I drafted Miller and had to drop him and actually picked up Trout first in three leagues to consequently dropped him in all of them…yeah last year blew!
But many of these rookies have my attention and am wondering how far I overpay for these keeper leagues drafts on the 10th and 16th?
Great article again Ray.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Polka – Profar could be a .290/20 type, certainly has the talent. But so did many others on this list have the talent to do that. The point is that, more times than not, even the elites struggle at least the start of their careers.
I’m playing, even in keeper lgs to win this and next year. I worry less about 3-4 years down the road than most.
By Darren D on Mar 6, 2013
But you JUST said we’re talking about redraft leagues, so by bringing up anything that happened in 2010 or later you just contradicted yourself. All that should matter is if he under or over performed his draft position in 2009. And using this as a source:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/2009-adp-rankings/
nobody was drafting him anyways. How can you really call that a miss? He put up an averagish ERA with a good K rate that year, which is all anyone was probably expecting if they streamed him once or twice in a deep league.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Darren D – I didn’t write the article… and turns out I was wrong.
It’s NOT Brian Anderson, its RYAN Anderson.
I was also wrong… Kyle was referring to the careers of players not one season.
By Darren D on Mar 6, 2013
Brian? Ryan? It’s pretty obviously Brett, but good job, good effort.
By Polka on Mar 6, 2013
same here Ray….
By Polka on Mar 6, 2013
is that Darren Dutch Dalton here with all the corrective banter? or Dreifort?:)
By Jimbo on Mar 6, 2013
Darren my father can beat you up!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2013
Darren D – Anderson, Brett, in 2009 was a top-10 overall player -
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267698.html
That certainly means there were people drafting him – just as they do every year drafting top-10′s.
By Darren D on Mar 6, 2013
Yes I know he was a BA top 10 prospect. That’s why he was included in an article that compiled the BA top 10 prospects. Thanks for clearing that up, though.
And people don’t draft every top 10 prospect in redraft leagues. I’d like to see the ones you’re in where Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are getting drafted this year. Anderson wasn’t in the top 76 SPs getting drafted on ESPN that year, so he was only getting drafted in very deep leagues. And he had value in deep leagues that year.
By Darren D on Mar 6, 2013
In fact, Anderson was ranked the 176th most valuable player in baseball that year. Seeing as how right now yahoo’s ADPs for Profar and Myers are 238 and 241, if they produce the value Anderson did in his rookie year it certainly won’t be misses for the majority of their owners.
By Joey on Mar 6, 2013
Ray,
I am in a 12 team Roto NL only keeper league. I have the first minor league pick and Billy Hamilton, Oscar Tavares were drafted last year. Any recommendations for a first round NL only pick? (Sano, Fernandez, Skaggs)
By Ender on Mar 6, 2013
Yes they are worth it but only for the thinking player. A huge portion of those misses were really obvious from anyone who was really putting thought into things. Most rookies are not worth it but 3 or 4 every year are certainly worth it and if you can identify those guys you are golden.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 7, 2013
Joey – Go with Fernandez. Pretty much seems like a can’t miss arm.
By Basebrawler on Mar 8, 2013
Ray, great article as always….I have a few comments and an important question.
I do agree that many people get too hyped, in general about the rookies and pass over ‘boring’ veterans. There is definitely a perception that those guys dont’t offer as much upside, and that they will only regress with age. Case in point, I got Konerko in the 13th round, Ethier in the 15th and Tex in the (are you sitting down???) 22nd round..no, thats NOT a misprint. Anyway, I do think that fantasy owners’ memories are short, and definitely maintain a “what have you done for me lately” mentality…a stud who is a 1st-3rd round player for the last 5 years can all of a sudden drop because he has a DOWN year and now they think..dude, he sucks, he is clearly in decline…really? Everyone is entitled to an off-year. Anyway, the Harper and Trout 2012 was an anamoly year and I agree with you that Trout at#1 is the wrong pick. That being said, I do have a question..i can only keep 3- HARPER would be a dream keeper, but I also have STRASBERG, KERSHAW and MCCUTCH. DO i honestly drop any of them for Harper? Oh, and I have Reyes too but I believe SS is much deeper than people believe…especially some league that count Prado for games-played last year (yahoo for example does…what GEM he is- 2b/3b/ss/of!)
Anyway, I have mancrush on Prado
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2013
Basebrawler – Personally, I’d only hold one arm (what a decision to make). I’d hold McC, Harper and Kershaw. Can’t go wrong with any, but in a dynasty league I think you have to hold Harper. Wow, Reyes too? You are either in a super shallow lg, or you are one hell of a drafter.
Prado – a big fan in The Oracle as well.
By Basebrawler on Mar 8, 2013
LOL Ray…well not THAT shallow..its a 10-team league but deep rosters. we start c,1b,2b,ss,3b,ci,mi,5OF,util,5sp,3rp,3p.
3bench
I traded for Strasberg and Harper last year in combo deals when they were having their “slumps” i midseason. Traded Greinke for Strasberg essentially, and gave up middle rount talent to get Harper. I drafted Reyes and had Kept Mccutch from previous season. Kershaw was a gift from God (some guy dropped him at end of year when he was hurt in Septemeber thinking he didnt need him for playoffs..I had the #1 Waiver
).
Anyway, I cant imagine not keeping Strasberg, but you may be right…having trouble with him over Harper. Harper probably has better long term potential…just Stras is like the chosen one, the Lebron of pitching…destined for Greatness..and he is top10 consensus now, arguably top 5.
Thanks for your input Ray…always enjoy your column (also, I got your Draft Guide…good reading)
BB
By Tom on Mar 9, 2013
Ray, I’m in a 9 team AL only keeper auction league. With your guidance last year, my team had a 2nd place finish – 1 point out of 1st. Thank you for your advice. With the second place finish, I can keep up to 10 players. I have 11 that I like, so I am starting this season off by asking for your advice again. Of these 11, whom would you keep… M. Cabrera $42, P. Fielder $34, E. Encarnacion $11, C. Davis $7.50, V. Martinez $3, J. Reddick $7.50, L. Cain $8.50, M. Moore $5, D. Smyly $1, T. Milone $5.50, D. Robertson $3.
As always Ray, thank you for your advice.
Tom
By Ray Flowers on Mar 9, 2013
Basebrawler – I would suggest you read this, along with the Draft Guide of course. It’s about Tommy John and a guys like Strasburg with bad mechanics.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7712916/tommy-john-surgery-keeps-pitchers-game-address-underlying-biomechanical-flaw-espn-magazine
By Ray Flowers on Mar 9, 2013
Tom – Smyly has a great arm, but no rotation spot. It’s either him or Cain/Reddick. Since it looks like it’s Porcello in the 5th spot with Smyly working out of the pen to start, I’d lean to dropping him. Cain is a hefty price for someone who has done nothing yet, but he’s got 20/20 talent.
By Bob R on Mar 9, 2013
First off, enjoy the show and I am impressed with how well you & Kyle pull it off like you’re in the same room. Then again, I’m pretty analog so I may be easy to impress.
I’m on the horns of an enema. I can keep at least 1 of the following as my 12th keeper in a 12 team, roto, NL only league.
Nolan Arenado
Lucas Duda
Darrin Ruf
Brett Jackson
They are each in the range of $4-6. My salary cap is 275 and we slot 15 position player & 10 pitchers.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2013
Bob R – Kyle is a pro. He makes it really easy. Thanks for listening.
How long can you keep players? If long time, at low cost, go Arenado. Might not see him this year, but lots to like at 3B and in that yard. Also a big fan of Jackson = 20/20 talent who has reworked his swing to cut down on Ks.