Player Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury
March 7th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox is one of the those players that I term “tipping point” guys. If he “tips” in the right direction you might get a first round talent at a third round cost. If he “tips” in the wrong direction you might end up spending a third round selection on a guy who will be lucky to give you 10th round value in 2013. What are my expectations with Ellsbury? Let’s delve into the player before I render my final thoughts (if you are unaware, I rostered Ellsbury for a very reasonable $24 in the recently conducted AL LABR Draft).
In 2008 Ellsbury hit .280, stole 50 bags and scored 98 runs.
In 2009 Ellsbury hit .301, stole 70 bags and scored 94 runs.
In 2010 he was injured and played just 18 games.
In 2011 he hit .321, stole 39 bases and scored 119 times.
In 2012 he was injured and played just 74 games.
Those are the facts. Here are some more.
In 2008-09 Ellsbury averaged 60 steals a season.
In 2010 and 2012 he was an injured plagued disaster.
In 2011 he was a superstar who also hit 32 homers and drove in 105 runs.
Which player is Ellsbury? Is he the guy who averaged 60 steals in 2008-09 or the one that has stolen 60 bases the past three seasons? Is he the guy who hit 32 homers in 2011 or the guy who has hit 24 homers over the other five seasons of his career? See what I mean by “tipping point?”
I do not believe that Ellsbury will return to the 50 steal level in 2013. It’s possible, he’s obviously been there before, but he’s just not run that much the past three years or, obviously, been able to stay healthy long enough to really let her rip. Running excessively on the base paths puts a tremendous strain on the body. I’m sure the Red Sox won’t tell him to stop running – there’s no red light in his future – but they need him on the field so doesn’t it make sense that they might pull back on the reigns a bit with Ellsbury to make sure he’s able to stay on the field? I’d be thinking 40 steals not 50 or 60.
Is Ellsbury a 32 homer man? There’s no way in heck he is. So many reasons why.
(1) No one ever thought he would develop into a 30 homer bat.
(2) The 32 homers he hit in 660 at-bats equate to one homer every 20.5 at-bats. In the other 1,575 at-bats he’s racked up he’s gone deep 24 times which equates to one homer every 65.6 at-bats. Put another way, Ellsbury has one season with more than nine homers. That’s right, he has one double-digit homer season in his career.
(3) For his career Ellsbury owns a 32 percent fly ball rate. In 2011, his huge homer season, that number was 35 percent, a very modest increase that only allowed him to reach the league average level. The reason that his homer total jumped so dramatically can be directly seen in his HR/F ratio. For his career Ellsbury has an 8.8 percent mark. In 2011 he posted a 16.7 percent mark. If we add together his rate from 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 we’d end up with 16.3 percent (think about that for a moment). If you think he’s a 30 homer bat you’re wrong. I’d even go further and say that I’d be surprised if he hit more than 20 homers in a healthy full season moving forward.
Ellsbury should be a solid batting average source. In his only two seasons of 600 at-bats he’s hit .301 and .321, and for his career he owns a .297 batting average. Given his speed and hitting style, his 1.51 career GB/FB ratio suggests that he hits the ball on the line or the ground more often than not, it’s fair to posit with health that his average will be strong in 2013.
So where does all of that leave us?
We’ve seen his steals totals regress.
It’s easy to see that his one huge homer season looks very flukish.
He’s failed to play half of the games in two of the last three seasons.
And you want to make him a second or third round selection this year?
I know the allure of Ellsbury is acute. He plays for the Red Sox and was a top-10 performer in 2011 (here’s the full 5×5 fantasy line put together: .321-32-105-119-39). Do you know how many seasons in the 21st century can match his ’11 effort? The answer is none. No one else has done that. In fact, no other player in the history of baseball can match all five of those numbers in one season. Besides being floored by that admission, the natural point of outgrowth is this – Ellsbury is never going to do it again.
Personally, I’m never going to draft Ellsbury in 2013 in a snake draft, as he will simply cost too much (as I noted above though, if the price falls in an auction draft, I would be interested). I’m not saying he will be a failure, and I’m not saying he will be a wasted pick if you do call out his name on draft day. My point is merely that I see a guy who has already had his career best effort. I see a guy who will never hit 32 homers again. I see a guy who will never steal 70 bases again. I see a guy who has failed to play 75 games in two of three years. Ellsbury might be a fantasy star in 2013 but if he is it won’t be on my fantasy team.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Jacoby Ellsbury
By Byobeerling on Mar 6, 2013
Ray, question for you. I’m in a 16 team points, mixed league, with keepers.
Draft is in a week and I wanted to run something by you. The big 3 second basemen are kept (cano, pedroia, kinsler). And Zobrist will go before I pick. It’s looking like I’m going to have chance to get kipnis and then come back around and get Bj Upton. Or possibly get someone like Alex Gordon and Brandon Phillips. Which combo would you prefer to have and why? I’m a big fan of Gordon, as are most fantasy guys, but 2nd get’s pretty awful in a hurry. I believe that Kipnis has a higher ceiling than Phillips at this point in their careers and someone like BJ is a pretty good consolation prize for passing on Gordon. But, you’re the man, so I wanted to hear your thoughts. Thanks.
By Scooter on Mar 7, 2013
Hey Ray, I have my first live draft of the season tonight and while I’ve been participating and have had success playing fantasy baseball for a few years now, tonight is my first H2H league as opposed to 5×5 roto. Normally my roto team is well balanced and consists of many of the ‘unsexy’ but productive vets as opposed to the up and coming prospect. but for a weekly h2h league I’ve decided to change my strategy. My aim is to draft as many power/speed guys as possible at the beginning of the draft while drafting pitchers with the arm for strikeouts. Basically I’ve decided to throw the AVG cat out the window and I never chase closers is drafts anyways. any thoughts? Thanks
By Jay on Mar 7, 2013
Ray, great player profile. I have a keeper question somewhat related to the profile.
10 team 5×5 standard with OBP instead of AVG and QS instead of Wins. We can keep up to 5 players. if we only keep 4, then they would be our first 4 rounds and we would get our first pick in the 5th round.
That said, i have 4 guys i want to keep for sure: Braun, Kemp, Pedroia, and Price. I have a few more that i’m entertaining in the 5th spot: Butler, Zobrist, Freeman, and Ian Desmond.
I know for sure there are a few guys not being kept that i would have a chance to get in that 5th round that are interesting to me: Ellsbury, BJ Upton, Matt Cain and Encarnacion. I don’t know how many ppl will be keeping all 5 guys, but pretty sure most ppl are.
It’s a gamble either way, but my long winded question is: do i have any guys in the first list i gave that you feel are slam dunks that i should keep and give up that 5th round pick… Or gamble and roll the dice and see who i might get.
By Morgan on Mar 7, 2013
You say the price will be too high in a snake draft….is the 4th round of a 12 teamer too high? what about the 5th? If he goes .300-15-80-100-35 I would most certainly spend at least a 5th round pick on him.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 7, 2013
Morgan – If he were to reach the numbers you laid out, he would be a top-20 player. Could he get there? Absolutely. Odds he gets there? Have to be pretty low. I’d think 4th-5th roundish, but the fact is he is likely to go higher than that in many drafts.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 7, 2013
Jay – I would keep Butler, Zobrist and Freeman without a worry. I would rather have Upton over all of them, then Ellsbury fits right into the mix with butler/zobrist. Cain is also a rock. About the only guys I wouldn’t be excited about is EE, but he should still be fine. I’d be tempted just to keep Zobrist at my SS, but you can roll the dice.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 7, 2013
Scooter – I dont like punting categories. However, it can win in h2h setups (one of the reason I hate h2h). You can punt a category, and with a guy hitting .200 one week and .400 the next being a .300 hitter overall, I get your plan. Be careful tho. Speed guys could steal four bases in a week, or go two weeks without one.
By Brian on Mar 7, 2013
Ray,
I have the 14th pick in a 14 team roto league. I’m thinking going with 2 infielders with my back-to-back picks. If Tulo is there, I’m taking him. But is Wright, Reyes, Kinsler, or Pedroia good picks at 15 if OF’s like J Upton and Hamilton or 1B Fielder are still there? Am I over thinking the positional scarcity thing or are those infielders solid choices at 15?
Thanks Ray,
Brian
By John on Mar 7, 2013
Ray
I love these player profile pieces. Keep up the great work.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 7, 2013
Brian – You can structure your team in a variety of ways. If you wanted to go Tulo/Pedroia I totally understand that. Personally, I wouldn’t take Tulo. Too much health risk for me. Also, yes, it sounds like you might be worrying a bit too much about position scarcity issues. Totally fine to do what you are doing, not crazy, but again, I wouldn’t personally take Tulo.
By Nokwurst on Mar 7, 2013
Hey Ray,
Who do you like better as a 6th OF: B Moss, Crisp, or D Brown? It’s an 8×8 roto w/ extra cats of OPS, XBH, & E, so Crisp’s speed value is deflated some (plus I already have Gardner, CarGo, BJ Upton, & Rollins for SBs.)
Or, would you rather grab Gyorko as an extra Inf? Is he for real? I heard someone compare him as Uggla when he was younger…
By jb(not JB) on Mar 7, 2013
Ray, Good article on Ells. But try to convince the owner that still wants a very high pick for him in trade…. lol
By Ray Flowers on Mar 7, 2013
Nokworst – I’d say Crisp is the best play, but your league favors power, and you already have Gardner which would make it hard to also have Crisp.
I would take a shot on Brown. I dont think Moss is going deep 30 times this year, or hitting .290 again, so take a shot on Brown and HOPE he’s finally figured it out.
By Nokwurst on Mar 7, 2013
Awesome, thanks Ray.
And thanks for sending the Draft Guide so quickly this past wknd: I signed up on FanDuel and had the guide later the same day, in time for my Monday draft!
By Polka on Mar 8, 2013
Wow, I was really floored by that statisical fact as well!
Nobody…EVER? Wow!
won’t spend $20 on him in my Auction..rather take Tulo, but Jacoby has had the run of fluke injuries though???