Questions at Third Base
March 8th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Often times in fantasy baseball we focus too much on the top of drafts. Who should I take in the first round? At what point of the draft do I take my first pitcher? Those questions are the type I receive on a daily basis. While those questions must be asked, the fact of the matter is that most drafts aren’t won in the first five rounds. In my humble opinion, the way you win a draft is to be smart with trades, to work the waiver-wire aggressively, and to pay very close attention as the draft starts to move past the early rounds when everyone has started to exhaust their team building strategies. This is the point of the draft you can get players on the cheap – think Edwin Encarnacion and Chase Headley last year – that end up helping lead you to a championship. With that in mind, I thought I would touch on bunch of third baseman who according to ADP from the NFBC are all being taken well after the top-100 players go off the board.
Pedro Alvarez (184th overall ADP) can mash the baseball. The issue is why did it take him so long to arrive at the big league level? The #2 pick in 2008, everyone always thought he would be a power hitter of impressive production at the big league level. Pedro hit 16 homers with 64 RBIs as a rookie in 95 games before hitting .191 with four homers over 74 contests in 2011 causing that position to be brought into question. Facing a make or break season last year he went deep 30 times with 85 RBIs. The power is legit and totally repeatable. However, he struck out 180 times leading to a .244 batting average. That may be all we get from him. Think Adam Dunn like power and game. Now he just needs to flash the year-to-year consistency of Dunn which is no small task.
Todd Frazier (163rd) was a very solid producer for the Reds last season as he hit .273 with 19 homers and 67 RBIs in just 422 at-bats. Give him 550 at-bats at that level and we’d be looking at a .273-25-87 season. That will certainly play in any league. Can he get there this season? He’s got the hot corner job in Cincy, but he struggled last year at times with contact, his 103 Ks aren’t exactly an encouraging number, and the result was a poor 0.35 K/BB ratio. Toss in an unlikely to be repeated 22.4 percent line drive rate, and it would seem that his batting average isn’t likely to go up but could go down. I don’t think adding Frazier is a “winning” move, he’s not gonna bust out and go bonkers, but solid across the board production at a decent price seems eminently doable.
Will Middlebrooks‘ (115) name always triggers the following thought in my mind – Danger Will Robinson (that phrase is from Lost in Space). You might be thinking ‘Ray must be really concerned about Will’s wrist.’ Sure it’s an issue (he had a minor setback in spring when some scar tissue broke loose). However, my real concern is expectations. Middlebrooks hit 15 homers with 54 RBIs last season in 75 games. Some people seem to think we’ve got Ryan Zimmerman on our hands now after just 267 big league at-bats for Will. I disagree. Will had an elevated .335 BABIP. He had an extremely elevated 21.4 percent HR/F ratio. If those two numbers come down just a bit we could be looking at a .270 hitter with 20 homers over 500 at-bats. Moreover, Middlebrooks walked 13 times in 75 games. That’s almost impossible to do. Because he struck out 70 times his BB/K ratio is 0.19 which is hideous (it’s less than half the big league average). You can’t hit .300 with a mark like that (he batted .288 last season). Don’t buy all the hype.
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Mike Moustakas (183) had 20 homers, 73 RBIs and 69 runs scored in his first full season. All of that is solid work. However, he hit .242, had an unsightly .296 OBP, batted just .205 on the road with a .624 OPS and hit .211 with a .586 OPS over his final 70 games last season. Moose has the pedigree to do much better than that, but there are holes that need to be rectified before we see a finished product. Some slight improvement is all that is needed for him to be a solid run producing option at third base. He might want to start with learning to take a walk (he had 39 in 149 games last season).
Trevor Plouffe (257) bashed 24 homers in 422 at-bats last season, and the power is real. However, the guy had a .691 OPS against righties (298 at-bats), he had a .655 OPS on the road, batted just .223 in night games (79 contests), and hit .212 with a .619 OPS over his final 53 games. Adam Dunn Jr. is what we got here. Plouffe has legit 30 homer pop if the Twins give him the at-bats, but there are major concerns. The last two years he had four steals but has been caught stealing six times. He ain’t gonna help there. He owns a .213 career batting average. He ain’t gonna help there either. He rarely walks and his high strikeout total lands him with a 0.35 career BB/K mark. He’s also the owner of a mere .256 BABIP, than in part to his fly ball tendencies. Big power can be had with Plouffe, but he’s going to be a burden to your team’s batting average.
Kyle Seager (161) is an easy one for this piece. Here is my Player Profile on him.
Michael Young (228) is also someone I need to say little about. I can just point you to his Player Profile.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
By John on Mar 8, 2013
Ray,
What are your thoughts on this trade offer?
I give Strasburg and get Carlos Gonzalez.
The league is a full dynasty, with standard H2H scoring. My team is:
C(1) – Rosario, d’Arnaud
1B(1) – Rizzo, Howard
2B(1) – Hill, Kendrick
3B(1) – Sandoval, Arenado
SS(1) – Cabrera, Drew
IF(1)
OF(3) – Kemp, Bourn, Kubel, Crisp, Cuddyer
UTIL(1)
P(2)
SP(3) – Strausburg, Gallardo, Latos, Medlen, Anderson, Samardzija, Garza, Hudson, Estrada
RP(3) – Motte, Holland, Storen, Pestano
Thanks!
John
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2013
John – Strasburg has massive potential, but we’re still waiting to see if he can last 200 innings. 2013 is a big year for him. Looking at your staff, you have a ton of depth. I think you can afford to do this deal. CarGo is an elite talent, he’s 27, and you could see your offense take off with his elite production.
By Jarpen on Mar 8, 2013
Enjoy reading your articles and I bought your ranking!
Anyway, I’m in a 14-team mix, $260 auction league (2 catchers). I can keep 10 (or less). What players would you keep?
Mauer, Joe $18
Mesoraco, Devin $5
Butler, Billy $17
Gonzalez, Adrian $42
Freeman, Freddie $15
Johnson, Kelly $10
Murphy, Daniel $4
Ackley, Dustin $15
Espinosa, Danny $9
Wright, David $29
Francoeur, Jeff $10 Murphy, David $1
Prado, Martin $13 Soriano, Alfonso $1
Upton, B.J. $33 Young, Delmon $11 Duda, Lucas $10
Arroyo, Bronson $7 Floyd, Gavin $5
Greinke, Zack $29 Masterson, Justin $11
McDonald, James $1 Milone, Tommy $7
Nolasco, Ricky $1 Zimmermann, Jordan $16
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 9, 2013
Jarpen – Do you really need me to tell you not to keep Arroyo or Floyd? You know they won’t be kept.
1 Zimmermann, Jordan $16
2 Freeman, Freddie $15
3 Butler, Billy $17
4 Espinosa, Danny $9
5 Murphy, Daniel $4
6 Mauer, Joe $18
7 Prado, Martin $13
8 McDonald, James $1
9 Soriano, Alfonso $1
10 Murphy, David $1
By Jarpen on Mar 9, 2013
LOL, Ray, I just wanted you to think really hard. On my own list I have all the ones you mentioned but Espinosa. For $9 he’s worth it, he? Thanks!
By Craig D on Mar 9, 2013
Ray,
You had Jay Bruce valued at $29 a month ago, and now you have him at $24. Significant drop – Is it Bruce, or a just a recalibration of the OF position with Grandy going down?
Thanks,
Craig
By Jarpen on Mar 10, 2013
One more question regarding my team. Got an offer: A. Gordon ($11) for David Murphy ($1) — leave it or take it?
By JP on Mar 10, 2013
12 Tm 5X5 Roto, Keep 5, Starting positions are C,1,2,3,SS,OF,OF,OF,Ut,Ut,(7)P. Keepers are Fielder, Kinsler, Wright, Hanley, Bruce (assume top 60 are off the board.) With the league being so small would you recommend filling out the remaining bats (I will not be taking a catcher anytime soon) before looking at pitching or should I try pick up a shields/scherzer type combo with my first two picks? Thanks Ray
By Craig D on Mar 10, 2013
Ray,
Looking to fill a BENCH Utility spot for my infield. Multi position eligibility is an added bonus to me because this is a daily league. Who would you roster to start the season:
Daniel Murphy – 1B,2B
Jeff Keppinger – 1B,2B,3B
Jedd Goryko – 3B,2B
Matt Carpenter – 1B,2B,3B,OF
I would be dropping Manny Machado. Currently have Billy Butler,Pablo Sandoval,Pedroia, and Reyes starting my infield.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2013
Jarpen – Espinosa is worth $9. He has that wonky shoulder, but he should be ok. He also qualifies at 2B/SS in most lgs, so that certainly boosts his value.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2013
Craig D – Bruce was adjusted cause of two main factors. (1) He isn’t be considered as highly by some as I thought he would be, so can possibly get him for less. (2) Re-worked things with rankings a bit based on thefts. Bruce doesn’t get any obviously, so that played into the tweak.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2013
Jarpen – I want Gordon. Cost is more, and I love Murphy at $1, but Gordon has been really impressive last two years, and barring injury, he’s pushing 600 at-bats.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2013
JP – Less than 85 SPs starting… that’s like a standard 10 tm lg with nine starters. I’d be happy to wait until round 10 to start taking SPs. All depends on how they go on draft day, but you should be able to build a talented staff even if you wait.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2013
Craig D – I’d go with Daniel Murphy. Make sure he’s healthy.
DONT at all like dropping Machado to add though. I’d pass if that was the option.
By Jarpen on Mar 10, 2013
Another offer…. (14-team mix, $260 auction), which side you like better:
D. Wright ($29), Daniel Murphy ($4), David Murphy ($1) for A. Gordon ($11), A. Chapman ($11), K. Medlen ($7)?
By Ben on Mar 10, 2013
Ray, I’m in a 16 team standard scoring league H2H and I have a couple trades im working on but can only make one. the first one is I send Josh Johnson and Omar infante and recieve Dustin Pedroia and doug fister/Ian kennedy, the other is Josh johnson and Kendrys morales for Freddie freeman and doug fister/ Ian Kennedy. which one would you do?
this is my current team…
C salvador Perez
1B Morales
2B omar infante
SS Yunel escobar
3B brett Lawrie
OF bryce harper
OF chris davis
OF josh reddick
UTL toi hunter
SP matt cain SP clayton kershaw SP josh johnson
SP matt moore SP matt harvey SP Yu Darvish
SP ross detwiller SP mike minor
RP John axford RP Jonathon Broxton
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
Jarpen – Gordon/Chap/Medlen side. It’s got more risk but there’s just no way I wouldn’t bite on that talented trio.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
Ben – Deal Johnson/Infante for Pedroia/Kennedy. I like that a lot. Kennedy and Johnson are the same to me, and Pedroia BLOWS DOORS on Infante.
By Järpen Fäviken on Mar 11, 2013
Thanks Ray. The owner got cold feet and now he’s offering Samardzija ($7) for my David Murphy ($1). Any thoughts?
By Jim on Mar 14, 2013
Hi Ray,
I could use your opinion on keepers. I can only keep three in my 12-team, AL only, 4×4 (no Runs, no K’s) roto league:
The asterisk means I have “Topper” rights (last bid) on the player.
Machado 20
Beltre 37
Seager 3
Pedroia *
DeAza 21
Ackley *
Wieters *
Olivo, M 20
Jones, A *
Weaver 28
Verlander 32
Thornton 6
Tillman 10
Morrow 8
Mendoza 10
Pestano 10
Iwakuma 10
I was leaning toward Seager, Pedroia (Topper) & Weiters (Topper).
Your thoughts?
Jim
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
Jim – If I was keeping three — I’d go Seager, Morrow … what is the topper thing? Not familiar with that. I guess it means if you want Pedroia and the bidding stops at $32, you can keep him for $33? Why don’t people just bid up the guy you want to keep to $39. I guess you can then decide to toss him back?
By Jim santos on Mar 15, 2013
Ray, thank you for your time and reply. Yes, you understand the “topper” feature correctly. I equate it to the MLB waiver, where a team can pull back a player. It’s an opportunity to control a player for a few more years if you can shave a few bucks off his salary. Thanks again. By the way, I listen to your show on XM everyday during my commute.