The Value of Relief Pitching
March 11th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
I recently detailed how my team turned out in KFFL’s K -BAD League. As a review of that club will show, I waited in pitching and assembled what I believe to be a strong group of starting pitchers – James Shields, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, James McDonald and Francisco Liriano . However, I’m not blind to the fact that I rostered an awful lot of risk. Lester and Haren are coming off down years, Marcum is once again dealing with some shoulder weakness, McDonald was terrible in the second half and Liriano is suffering from a broken non-throwing arm (we have a DL spot in this league which is where Liriano will end up). So how did I combat that risk? Besides building an impressive offense, I also rostered four dynamic arms in Steve Cishek, Kenley Jansen, Bobby Parnell and David Robertson. ‘But Ray, how does that rally help you since only one of those guys is locked into the 9th inning for his team?’ Ah, and with that question we dig into the meat of today’s article.
Let’s look at each relievers numbers from last season.
Cishek: 2.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 68 Ks, five wins, 15 saves
Jansen: 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 99 Ks, five wins, 25 saves
Parnell: 2.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 61 Ks, five wins, seven saves
Robertson: 2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 81 Ks, two wins, two saves
All of those four produced solid efforts last season, wouldn’t you say? That group would have also brought you 49 saves last season, on the cheap, which is a huge bonus given their draft day cost. But did you realize just how dominating they were on the hill? In fact, that foursome of hurlers was just as good, better actually, than Justin Verlander last season, and no, I haven’t been drinking (though that White Russian on the counter is about 10 minutes away from being sipped). Take a look.
Verlander: 17 wins, 2.64 ERA, 239Ks, 1.06 WHIP in 238.1 innings
Relievers: 17 wins, 2.55 ERA, 309 Ks, 1.14 WHIP in 258 innings
Remember two other extremely salient points.
(1) Verlander had zero saves and the relievers had 49.
(2) Verlander’s cost $27 last year in Tout Wars (15 team mixed league).
The relievers cost $7 ($0 Cishek, $6 Jansen, $0, Parnell, $1 Robertson).
So, if you had that reliever group you would have gotten better numbers than Justin Verlander, plus don’t forget to add in the 49 saves, and spent a fourth as much money on draft day. Are you starting to see my point? Year after year relievers and their value to teams in the fantasy game is undervalued because people think that if a reliever isn’t giving you saves then he’s not helping your team. Granted, if your team is throwing 1,500 innings over the course of a season 65 innings from one reliever really isn’t going to leave much of a mark, but if you have two, three, four or five guys doing that, then it gets really interesting as you can see in the example above.
Some further notes.
(1) Target skills, not roles, with relievers.
(2) Taking relievers in the reserve rounds is a strong move if you are uncertain about your starting pitching group.
(3) Relievers, unlike starting pitchers, can contribute in all five categories.
(4) It may seem counter-intuitive, but sometimes less is more. Last season David Robertson earned $5 of fantasy value even though he threw only 60.2 innings. Lucas Harrell won 11 games, struck out 140 batters, posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 193.2 innings. While that seems like Harrell’s effort would result in better fantasy value that Robertson, would it shock you to learn that he too earned $5 last season? Remember, the league ERA last year was 4.01, the WHIP 1.31, and obviously a .500 record (Harrell was 11-11 and won only 11 games in 32 starts). The fact is that Harrell was decidedly average across the board meaning that he gave you 193.2 innings of average while Robertson gave you 60.2 innings of impressive work. In the end, their fantasy production ended up being the same.
Relievers may not be the sexy adds late in drafts, but a group of guys like those I noted above can not only provide you excellent numbers, but they can also help to cover up some weakness in your starting pitching unit while at the same time offering a tremendous chance to receive a substantial return on your investment. Don’t forget that fact on draft day cause rostering Jake McGee over a guy like Bronson Arroyo at the end of a draft might be the better long-term move in many cases.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Bobby Parnell, David Robertson, Jake McGee, Kenley Jansen, Steve Cishek
By Scooter on Mar 11, 2013
Hey Ray, this question isn’t related to the relief article, however I have always shared the same philosophy when it comes to relievers that skills trumps roles. I have the 8th slot in my 5×5 mixed league and was wondering your thoughts on targeting justin upton in second? presumably passing on guys like longoria, beltre, stanton tulowitzki and bautista. I like his power/speed upside and I don’t expect him to be around in the 3rd
By @Mmagidny on Mar 11, 2013
Ray, what about a guy like Sean Marshall. Same type of arm you’re referring to, yes?
By Carl Rispoli on Mar 11, 2013
Ray, in a league that uses quality starts instead of wins, they can only contribute to 4/5. Still the same strategy? IP cap of 1300 in this league. I should also mention we use SOLDS in this league.
Should I get as many innings from relievers as possible and just have enough starters to be OK in quality starts and hit the IP limit?
By Fish on Mar 11, 2013
Ray,
9 team NL only, Keepers include Bruce 24, Stanton 20, Castro 10, Freese 6, Scutaro 1. Have room for 1 more if I want to. Don’t have to.
Rizzo 15, Panda 21, Ramos 3. Was leaning Rizzo as Votto and Posey are only better 1B available and both likely to go for $25-30+. Agree? Thank you!
By Dave on Mar 11, 2013
One of the best articles I’ve read in quite some time. Mainly because this is my exact approach towards every draft, but still!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
Scooter – You can post your question in the appropriate spot, even if it’s not the most recent article, and I will get to it.
Someone didn’t get a copy of the Draft Guide eh? http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
My rankings in there let you know I dont have an issue with this position.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
@Mmagidny – Someone else who didn’t get my Draft Guide…
Yes, as highlighted in the Guide, Marhshall is just the type of arm you should be targeting.
http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
Carl Rispoli – Solds… yes!
Innings cap of 1300 limits RPs a bit, as does QS vs. wins. The ratios still are there, K/9, and saves, but could downgrade a bit cause of your rules.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
Fish – I like Panda at that cost. Love his potential, though obv. there is a risk with health/conditioning. Rizzo sligthly better value, perhaps, BUT — Rizzo is barely a top-10 1B in NL. Pablo can be a top-5 3B. I’d go Sandoval.
By Jimbo on Mar 11, 2013
Ray – my draft is in two weeks. I would like an updated rankings, draft guide subscriber, and i am wondering if getting it a week in advanced would work? I am sure your rankings won’t change all too much baring an injury.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
Jimbo – From the Draft Guide article –
Everyone that purchases The Guide will be able to get one free update of the player rankings (this counts whether you go through Fanduel or through BaseballGuys directly). Get The Guide now, study it, take in all it has to offer. If you’d like up updated version of the rankings at any point – and the rankings are updated on a daily basis as needed – here is what you will need to do.
(1) Send me an email at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com.
(2) The email should include a copy of your receipt from PayPal or Fanduel. I’ll then send you a file with the updated player rankings right up until Opening Day.
Whenever you want it buddy… you’ll always get it within 24 hours.
By Polo on Mar 11, 2013
At what point do u say,I’ll just take relievers instead of starters? Better question: If u have 6 good starters,(ex,Shields,Zimmerman,Gallardo,Morrow,Hudson & Harvey)would at least think about drafting extra relievers?
Also,if u have 6 bench spots,do u take more relievers than hitters for your bench(for a 12 team mixed league)?
By Mark on Mar 12, 2013
Isn’t a more accurate valuation verlander + opportunity cost of the 3 slots vs. The 4 relievers?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2013
Mark – You may be correct. Problem is I was dealing with a concrete situation in my example and didn’t delve into the Tout Wars draft to determine what the opportunity cost was for each team that selected the pitchers I noted.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2013
Polo – It’s never just about that. You have to take into account what everyone is doing at the draft table. Which players are left. Are there still better options at SP than RP to roster? I like your top-6. Typically, if I have nine pitcher spots and 5/6 bench spots, I’d likely go 6/3 SP/RP in rotation and then on bench go 1/2 or 2/1 depending on who is available. If I feel good about my SPs, I’d go 2 RPs cause you will have to pay our your nose to get a middle infielder turned closer in waivers – why not take a shot on having one on your bench?
By Chris J on Mar 12, 2013
Hey Ray, listen to you on XM and look at your site regulary. I am in a 20 team dynasty league and I was offered Christian Yelich and Oscar Tavares but I would have to give up Josh Hamilton, He is my best offensive player. I finished 5th last year and am probably going to finish around the same this year. Should I give up the proven player, who may decline over the next few years to get the two prospects in the hopes of being in a more dominant position in the next year or two. My other outfielders are Bryce Harper, Dexter Fowler, and Ryan Ludwick. Thanks Ray!
By joe gigs on Mar 12, 2013
In a 10 team keeper league 11 x 11. 30 man roster
We start 7 pitchers a week and have a 5 man bench. Looking to fill a roster spot with either Edwin Jackson, Tyler skaggs, Dan straily, Jaime garcia or Lucas harrell
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2013
Chris J – Thanks for the online and radio support. Much obliged.
Hamilton is a total wild card. MVP or out of baseball? Injured or playing 150 games. He’s an elite performer though when everything is right. Yelich and Taveras have a chance to both be elite players. In a 20 tm lg if you can get both… that would be huge. It’s a call you have to make. If you make the deal you don’t win this year, and 2014 might be rough too. However, three years of elite Hamilton now or potentially a decade worth from two guys… tough to turn that down.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2013
Joe Gigs – Someone needs to get a copy of the BaseballGuys Draft Guide -
http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
EJax.
By Carl Rispoli on Mar 12, 2013
Ray, is it crazy to draft 3 catchers in an NFBC 15 team league? Last year I got burned at the catcher position early with injuries and struggled to find replacements. I’d probably try to grab guys like Lucroy/Jaso/Brantly for my 2 starters and then maybe a Flowers/Castro for my bench. Worthwhile or should I be taking a chance on a higher upside guy?
By john on Mar 12, 2013
hey ray,throwing this out there..we do a 10 team keeper league, been going on for 5 years and we kicked one kid out for not keeping up with it and cant find one to replace him..any interest in taking over the team? i know you probably have to much going on anyway, thanks
By jeff on Mar 12, 2013
Ray
Big Fan of the Show.
2 questions.
1. 15 teams roto standard 2 keeper league. You give up last years draft round for this year. I am keeping Chapman in the 24th round, but not sure on the second. Bruce in the 6th or Hill in the 13th. I am not sure if Hill can reproduce.
2. We also have 3 DL spots and I was wondering what you think about taking a shot on Beachy in like the 17th or 18th and placing him on the DL. I know he is coming off Tommy John surgery, but for next year Beachy in that late of a round would be a steal.
Thanks for the help.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2013
Carl Rispoli – I wouldn’t draft three catchers in the NFBC. A guy like Castro is a passable #2 option, but what is he best case scenario, a $10 player? Take a shot on a RP that could get 30 saves or a hitter that could go 15/15 with playing time. That’s how I would play it.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2013
John – Thanks for your gracious offer. I’m already booked up with leagues this year though, so I will have to decline. Best of luck finding a solid replacement.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2013
Jeff – I’d add Hill in the 13th, really good value there.
I wouldn’t take Beachy that early. Even with the DL spot, there are just other players that you can roster who will help you all year at 17/18. He isn’t likely back until at least June… wait to roster him.
By Jay on Mar 20, 2013
Good Stuff Ray and I’m totally on board. I’ve been a big fan of stacking elite skill relievers to drive down the ratios and get additional W’s and K’s; especially in leagues with a Games Started cap rather than IP cap (another excellent value point).
Reliever related question and a strategy I’m curious about that I’ve never tried, but am thinking about.
I’m drafting in a 14 team 28 roster spot league tomorrow which is head to head categories. I know this is the only format where punting is actually viable and I’m debating on punting starting pitching. I know this is sacrificing 2 categories (W’s, and K’s) most weeks, but what I lose in SP I should be able to REALLY gain in offence and RP.
I would have to get 5-6 elite closers with great ratios and put everything else into offence. I know closers are shaky, but if I target the few elite with job security (kimbrel, Rivera) and then add great ratio closers and relievers (Romo, Jansen, etc…) I should easily win SV, ERA, and whip every week. Then with the other 22 picks solely going to offense, I have enough confidence that I could construct a formidable crew.
On paper and in my mind it makes sense, but I wanted to run this by you and see if you approve.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Jay – That strategy can work. Rack up a huge offense, and win the three pitcher categories (ERA, WHIP, SV). It’s a viable strategy.
By Jay on Mar 22, 2013
Hey Ray,
So I drafted last night essentially punting SP and wanted to recap and let you know how it went. Personally I think I sh*t the bed, but looking at everyone’s team, most people have multiple weaknesses so I felt a bit better.
Some Context, it was the Fantasy Alarm listener league with Jeff Mans and a few others. Have to give credit to most guys in the draft; they knew what they were doing. Everyone waited on SP and hitting was scarce early. If you wouldn’t mind letting me know what you think:
Catcher: Victor Martinez (5), AJ Pierzynski (12)
1B: Albert Pujols (1)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Trevor Plouffe (18)
SS: JJ Hardy (15)
CI: Anthony Rizzo (6)
MI: Daniel Murphy (19)
OF: BJ Upton (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Nick Swisher (10), Dexter Fowler (11)
UTI: Lance Berkman (17)
SP: Punted, was required to draft 2 so got Mark Buehrle and Jeff Neimann late
RP: Craig Kimbrel (4), Jonathan Palelbon (8), Jason Motte (9), Kenley Jansen (13), Casey Janssen (14), Grant Balfour (16)
Bench: Michael Saunders (20), Michael Brantley (22), Ryan Roberts (23), Billy Hamilton (25)
Glaring problem, I need more speed if I expect to win more of the offensive categories.
Realistically i think i can win SV, ERA, and WHIP 90% of the weeks. I will have to work on offense but i think this could work with some saavy waiver wire moves through the year.
By Fish on Mar 22, 2013
Hello Ray, My draft is Sunday morning and I’m pretty fired up. Draft day is the best day of the year. A couple questions if you don’t mind: 1) in the draft guide, you give decent values to guys like Marshall, Stamen, Clippard, etc. With my league only being 9 teams, are those guys anything more than $1 flyers late?
2) Generally speaking, since I’m 9 teams, what would I do to your values to make them work for my league? I assume I should bump the top guys up a couple bucks, and obviously set the bottom tier at a buck or two – anything else?
Many thanks Ray, as always.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2013
Jay – I dont believe in punting categories, certainly not wins and K’s. Only way that works is if you are in a H2H lg. Even if it is, risky to chuck starters, and honestly, if you are going to, a guy like Buerhle is a terrible selection. Your offense isn’t going to be good enough to win with that tactical decision. Fantasy closers though, certainly give you that. You are also correct. You don’t have a ton of speed.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2013
Fish – If in a 9 tm mixed lg, middle relievers are $1-3 options in most cases.
Each team still has the same $260 to spend, so it all depends. You’ll want to go big on a fwe guys though… shallowness of lg might favor more stars/scrubs approach.
By Jason on Mar 23, 2013
I should have clarified. It is h2h categoties. this was a follow up from a post 2 days ago where i mentioned punting SP.
By Jay on Mar 24, 2013
hey ray, first question of the year for ya from me.
6×6 14 team roto (H’s/OBP extra)
#4 spot. tell me what you think of this pitching squad:
sp: weaver, garcia, ryu, beckket, mccarthy
C’s:holland, putz,johnson, rodney
Mr’s: benoit, euhara, rosenthal, doolittle
3 p spots, 3 sp slots and 3 rp slots
i am a overactive owner, stream all the time based on matchups and what not…im not going to show you my hitting for now…but based on the pitching im sure you can guess a few of my hitters.
got weaver in 8th round bye the way…only reason he made this list…and he will probably be the best pre season ranked pitcher on any of my teams…
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Jay – Honestly, not good. Garcia is always an injury risk, Ryu totally inexperienced, Beckett I like, but McC is always hurt and in a tough pitcher’s park. Gotta improve this unit or stream a lot.
Huge bullpen arms.
By mark on Apr 28, 2013
At what point do you reassess a relief pitcher for the year? With the limited innings pitched it seems that it will take much longer to achieve an adequate sample size to evaluate. Most RPs today (4/28) are around 10 IP? At what point do metrics like xfip become reliable for future performance?….for example should d Robertson and D Hernandez be dropped for Melancon (xfip:1.77), and Craig Stammen (2.33)?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Apr 29, 2013
Mark – you are correct, sample size is always an issue for relievers. You have to use everything together. xFIP, k/9, bb/9, hr/f, gb/fb etc… I almost always side with the overall skills of a reliever. Robertson and Hernandez are the best two for me. Most skilled, and also 2nd in line for saves with their teams.